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NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2012

SWOT: The Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission. Wide- Swath Altimetric Elevation on Earth

The elevation of the surface of the ocean and freshwater bodies on land holds key information on many important processes of the Earth System. The elevation of the ocean surface, called ocean surface topography, has been measured by conventional nadirlooking radar altimeter for the past two decades. The data collected have been used for the study of large-scale circulation and sea level change. However, the spatial resolution of the observations has limited the study to scales larger than about 200 km, leaving the smaller scales containing substantial kinetic energy of ocean circulation that is responsible for the flux of heat, dissolved gas and nutrients between the upper and the deep ocean. This flux is important to the understanding of the ocean's role in regulatingfuture climate change.The elevation of the water bodies on land is a key parameter required for the computation of storage and discharge of freshwater in rivers, lakes, and wetlands. Globally, the spatial and temporal variability of water storage and discharge is poorly known due to the lack of well-sampled observations. In situ networks measuring river flows are declining worldwide due to economic and political reasons. Conventional altimeter observations suffers from the complexity of multiple peaks caused by the reflections from water, vegetation canopy and rough topography, resulting in much less valid data over land than over the ocean. Another major limitation is the large inter track distance preventing good coverage of rivers and other water bodies.This document provides descriptions of a new measurement technique using radar interferometry to obtain wide-swath measurement of water elevation at high resolution over both the ocean and land. Making this type of measurement, which addresses the shortcomings of conventional altimetry in both oceanographic and hydrologic applications, is the objective of a mission concept called Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), which was recommended by the National Research Council's first decadal survey of NASA's Earth science program. This document provides wide-ranging examples of research opportunities in oceanography and land hydrology that would be enabled by the new type of measurement. Additional applications in many other branches of Earth System science ranging from ocean bathymetry to sea ice dynamics are also discussed. Many of the technical issues in making the measurement are discussed as well. Also presented is a preliminary design of the SWOT Mission concept, which is being jointly developed by NASA and CNES, with contributions from the Canadian Space Agency.

altimetry↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Water Solutions Using Remote Sensing

NASA Water Resources works within Earth sciences to leverage investments of space-based observation, model results, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities into water resources management decision support tools for the sustainable use of water. Earth science satellite observations and modelling products provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as land cover type, vegetation type and health, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and water levels and radiation. Observations of this type combined with models and analysis enable satellite-based assessment of the water cycle. With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. The NASA Water Resources Program has the objective to provide NASA products to help deal with these issues with the goal for the sustainable use of water. The Water Resources program organizes its projects under five functional themes: 1) stream-flow and flood forecasting; 2) water consumptive use (includes evapotranspiration) and irrigation; 3) drought; 4) water quality; and 5) climate and water resources. NASA primarily works with national and international groups such as other US government agencies (NOAA, EPA, USGS, USAID) and various other groups to maximize the widest use of the water products. A summary of NASA's water activities linked to helping solve issues for developing countries will be highlighted.

Toll, David↗
NASA NTRS2012

Complex Decision-Making Applications for the NASA Space Launch System

The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low earth orbit (LEO) large-scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decision-making framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing figure of merit (FOM)-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

Lyles, Garry↗
NASA NTRS2012

Complex Decision-Making Applications for the NASA Space Launch System

The Space Shuttle program is ending and elements of the Constellation Program are either being cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. NASA is working diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond LEO large ]scale missions for the next several decades. Thus, multiple questions must be addressed: Which heavy lift vehicle will best allow the agency to achieve mission objectives in the most affordable and reliable manner? Which heavy lift vehicle will allow for a sufficiently flexible exploration campaign of the solar system? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will allow for minimizing risk in design, test, build and operations? Which heavy lift vehicle configuration will be sustainable in changing political environments? Seeking to address these questions drove the development of an SLS decisionmaking framework. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, this framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing FOM-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper discusses the various methods of this process that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics. The end result was the identification of SLS launch vehicle candidates that could successfully meet the threshold requirements in support of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

Lyles, Garry↗
NASA NTRS2012

Wernher von Braun: Reflections on His Contributions to Space Exploration

In 1950, Dr. Wernher von Braun and approximately 100 of his team members came to Huntsville, Alabama, to begin work with the Army on what would later become America's historic space program. He would later serve as the first director of the Marshall Space Flight Center and led the development of the Saturn V launch vehicle that launched seven crewed American mission to the moon, as well as America s first space station, Skylab. Von Braun is best known for his team s technical achievements. He realized his dream of exploring outer space by helping place humans on the moon. His engineering and managerial talent during the Apollo era had contributed to a technological revolution. He was by all accounts a good engineer, but he was only one among many. What set Von Braun apart were his charisma, his vision, and his leadership skills. He inspired loyalty and dedication in the people around him. He understood the importance of communicating his vision to his team, to political and business leaders and the public. Today, the Marshall Center continues his vision by pursuing engineering and scientific projects that will continue to open space to exploration. This presentation will discuss Von Braun's impact on Huntsville, the Marshall Center, the nation and the world and look at his contributions in context of where world space exploration is today.

Goldman, Arthur E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Analysis of Shuttle Crew Scheduling Violations

From the early years of the Space Shuttle program, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Shuttle crews have had a timeline of activities to guide them through their time on-orbit. Planners used scheduling constraints to build timelines that ensured the health and safety of the crews. If a constraint could not be met it resulted in a violation. Other agencies of the federal government also have scheduling constraints to ensure the safety of personnel and the public. This project examined the history of Space Shuttle scheduling constraints, constraints from Federal agencies and branches of the military and how these constraints may be used as a guide for future NASA and private spacecraft. This was conducted by reviewing rules and violations with regard to human aerospace scheduling constraints, environmental, political, social and technological factors, operating environment and relevant human factors. This study includes a statistical analysis of Shuttle Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) related violations to determine if these were a significant producer of constraint violations. It was hypothesized that the number of SCSC violations caused by EVA activities were a significant contributor to the total number of violations for Shuttle/ISS missions. Data was taken from NASA data archives at the Johnson Space Center from Space Shuttle/ISS missions prior to the STS-107 accident. The results of the analysis rejected the null hypothesis and found that EVA violations were a significant contributor to the total number of violations. This analysis could help NASA and commercial space companies understand the main source of constraint violations and allow them to create constraint rules that ensure the safe operation of future human private and exploration missions. Additional studies could be performed to evaluate other variables that could have influenced the scheduling violations that were analyzed.

Bristol, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using M and S to Improve Human Decision Making and Achieve Effective Problem Solving in an International Environment

In the international arena, decision makers are often swayed away from fact-based analysis by their own individual cultural and political bias. Modeling and Simulation-based training can raise awareness of individual predisposition and improve the quality of decision making by focusing solely on fact vice perception. This improved decision making methodology will support the multinational collaborative efforts of military and civilian leaders to solve challenges more effectively. The intent of this experimental research is to create a framework that allows decision makers to "come to the table" with the latest and most significant facts necessary to determine an appropriate solution for any given contingency.

Christie, Vanessa L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

Schwartz, Noah↗
NASA NTRS2012

Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic

The presentation is divided into three parts. Part I is an overview of early expeditions to the High Arctic, and their political consequences at the time. The focus then shifts to the Geological Survey of Canada s mapping program in the North (Operation Franklin), and to the Polar Continental Shelf Project (PCSP), a unique organization that resides within the Government of Canada s Department of Natural Resources, and supports mapping projects and science investigations. PCSP is highlighted throughout the presentation so a description of mandate, budgets, and support infrastructure is warranted. In Part II, the presenter describes the planning required in advance of scientific deployments carried out in the Canadian High Arctic from the perspective of government and university investigators. Field operations and challenges encountered while leading arctic field teams in fly camps are also described in this part of the presentation, with particular emphasis on the 2008 field season. Part III is a summary of preliminary results obtained from a Polar Survey questionnaire sent out to members of the Arctic research community in anticipation of the workshop. The last part of the talk is an update on the analog program at the Canadian Space Agency, specifically, the Canadian Analog Research Network (CARN) and current activities related to Analog missions, 2009-2010.

Williamson, Marie-Claude↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Cognitive bias↗
NASA NTRS2013

PRA and Conceptual Design

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2013

Affordable Development and Qualification Strategy for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

A number of recent assessments have confirmed the results of several earlier studies that Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is a leading technology for human exploration of Mars. It is generally acknowledged that NTP provides the best prospects for the transportation of humans to Mars in the 2030's. Its high Isp coupled with the high thrusts achievable, allow reasonable trip times, thereby alleviating concerns about space radiation and "claustrophobia" effects. NASA has embarked on the latest phase of the development of NTP systems, and is adopting an affordable approach in response to the pressure of the times. The affordable strategy is built on maximizing the use of the large NTP technology base developed in the 1950's and 60's. The fact that the NTP engines were actually demonstrated to work as planned, is a great risk reduction feature in its development. The strategy utilizes non-nuclear testing to the fullest extent possible, and uses focused nuclear tests for the essential qualification and certification tests. The perceived cost risk of conducting the ground tests is being addressed by considering novel testing approaches. This includes the use of boreholes to contain radioactive effluents, and use of fuel with very high retention capability for fission products. The use of prototype flight tests is being considered as final steps in the development prior to undertaking human flight missions. In addition to the technical issues, plans are being prepared to address the institutional and political issues that need to be considered in this major venture. While the development and deployment of NTP system is not expected to be cheap, the value of the system will be very high, and amortized over the many missions that it enables and enhances, the imputed costs will be very reasonable. Using the approach outlined, NASA and its partners, currently the DOE, and subsequently industry, have a good chance of creating a sustained development program leading to human missions to Mars within the next few decades.

Gerrish, Harold P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Antarctic Search for Meteorites: A Model for Deep Space Exploration

In an era of shrinking buying power and reduced flight opportunities, NASA must extract the greatest possible value from all sources of insight into the future of human space exploration. Antarctica is one such source. The history of Antarctic exploration has many political and technical parallels with the development of space, and Antarctica's remoteness and harsh climate make it an excellent proxy for space (e.g., [1,2]). Links between exploration of space and of the Antarctic date back to the International Geophysical Year of 1957-1958, which saw both the launch of Sputnik 1 and the establishment of a station at the South Pole. The Antarctic Search for Meteorites (ANSMET) is an annual expedition to the south polar plateau to collect meteorites. Although its intent is not to simulate a space mission, the handful of astronauts who have participated in ANSMET agree that it is very similar to a long-duration space flight. Independently, NASA and other space agencies have simulated deep space exploration missions in "analog" activities at remote field sites on Earth (e.g., [3]). These include NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) [4,5], Desert Research And Technology Studies (Desert RATS) [6,7], and the Pavilion Lake Research Project (PLRP or simply Pavilion Lake) [8]. This report focuses on NEEMO, Desert RATS, and PLRP because of the author's firsthand experience with them. Other noteworthy analogs, such as the arctic Haughton Mars Project and the European Space Agency's underground Cooperative Adventure for Valuing and Exercising human behavior and performance Skills (CAVES), are not treated here. NASA analogs often include fully staffed control centers, astronauts serving as crew, and realistic mission timelines lasting one to two weeks. Analogs have provided key insights into system architectures and operational concepts for the future human exploration of deep space. They have pioneered techniques for human communication with significant speed-of-light delays, for conducting spacewalks on natural objects with negligible surface gravity, and for empowering exploration crews to work with reduced dependence on a ground control center. They have field-tested dozens of emerging technologies including spacewalking tools and full-scale prototype vehicles and habitats. They have provided valuable experience for astronauts preparing for their first space flight, and for flown crewmembers who will take command roles on later flights. Some analogs, especially PLRP, have connected observers in the field with science teams in remotely located control centers to produce high-quality, publishable scientific results. The analogs have accomplished all of this at a tiny fraction of the cost of an actual space flight. This report treats ANSMET as space flight analog. The chapter following this introduction describes ANSMET in depth. The report then presents data on logistics and crew considerations that may be useful for developers of future human space exploration missions. It offers detailed comparisons between ANSMET and past, present, and future space flights on the Space Shuttle, the International Space Station (ISS), and a proposed Mars mission. Those comparisons are intended to complement the work of Eppler [2], who compares ANSMET to the Apollo moon flights. This report also compares ANSMET with the Desert RATS, NEEMO, and PLRP analogs. It then presents observations and makes recommendations related to ANSMET's value as a simulated space mission. The report ends with a short conclusion. The remainder of this introductory chapter provides background material to help readers interpret the rest of the report. It gives brief overviews of Space Shuttle and ISS missions along with information on a notional future human flight to Mars. It also presents the general features of three of NASA's space flight "analog" projects. With those points of reference in place, the chapter concludes with an overview of ANSMET.

Love, Stanley G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

How Cities Breathe: Ground-Referenced, Airborne Hyperspectral Imaging Precursor Measurements To Space-Based Monitoring

Methane's (CH4) large global warming potential (Shindell et al., 2012) and likely increasing future emissions due to global warming feedbacks emphasize its importance to anthropogenic greenhouse warming (IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, CH4 regulation has far greater near-term climate change mitigation potential versus carbon dioxide CO2, the other major anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (Shindell et al., 2009). Uncertainties in CH4 budgets arise from the poor state of knowledge of CH4 sources - in part from a lack of sufficiently accurate assessments of the temporal and spatial emissions and controlling factors of highly variable anthropogenic and natural CH4 surface fluxes (IPCC, 2007) and the lack of global-scale (satellite) data at sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve sources. Many important methane (and other trace gases) sources arise from urban and mega-urban landscapes where anthropogenic activities are centered - most of humanity lives in urban areas. Studying these complex landscape tapestries is challenged by a wide and varied range of activities at small spatial scale, and difficulty in obtaining up-to-date landuse data in the developed world - a key desire of policy makers towards development of effective regulations. In the developing world, challenges are multiplied with additional political access challenges. As high spatial resolution satellite and airborne data has become available, activity mapping applications have blossomed - i.e., Google maps; however, tap a minute fraction of remote sensing capabilities due to limited (three band) spectral information. Next generation approaches that incorporate high spatial resolution hyperspectral and ultraspectral data will allow detangling of the highly heterogeneous usage megacity patterns by providing diagnostic identification of chemical composition from solids (refs) to gases (refs). To properly enable these next generation technologies for megacity include atmospheric radiative transfer modeling the complex and often aerosol laden, humid, urban microclimates, atmospheric transport and profile monitoring, spatial resolution, temporal cycles (diurnal and seasonal which involve interactions with the surrounding environment diurnal and seasonal cycles) and representative measurement approaches given traffic realities. Promising approaches incorporate contemporaneous airborne remote sensing and in situ measurements, nocturnal surface surveys, with ground station measurement

Leifer, Ira↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Extended Case Study Methoology for Investigating Influence of Cultural, Organizational, and Automation Factors on Human-Automation Trust

This paper discusses a case study that examined the influence of cultural, organizational and automation capability upon human trust in, and reliance on, automation. In particular, this paper focuses on the design and application of an extended case study methodology, and on the foundational lessons revealed by it. Experimental test pilots involved in the research and development of the US Air Forces newly developed Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System served as the context for this examination. An eclectic, multi-pronged approach was designed to conduct this case study, and proved effective in addressing the challenges associated with the cases politically sensitive and military environment. Key results indicate that the system design was in alignment with pilot culture and organizational mission, indicating the potential for appropriate trust development in operational pilots. These include the low-vulnerabilityhigh risk nature of the pilot profession, automation transparency and suspicion, system reputation, and the setup of and communications among organizations involved in the system development.

automation suspicion↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Affording Mars Workshop: Background and Recommendations

A human mission to Mars is the stated "ultimate" goal for NASA and is widely believed by the public to be the most compelling destination for America's space program. However, widely cited enormous costs - perhaps as much as a trillion dollars for a many-decade campaign - seem to be an impossible hurdle, although political and budget instability over many years may be equally challenging. More recently, a handful of increasingly detailed architectures for initial Mars missions have been developed by commercial companies that have estimated costs much less than widely believed and roughly comparable with previous major human space flight programs: the Apollo Program, the International Space Station, and the space shuttle. Several of these studies are listed in the bibliography to the workshop report. As a consequence of these new scenarios, beginning in spring, 2013 a multiinstitutional planning team began developing the content and invitee list for a winter workshop that would critically assess concepts, initiatives, technology priorities, and programmatic options to reduce significantly the costs of human exploration of Mars. The output of the workshop - findings and recommendations - would be presented in a number of forums and discussed with national leaders in human space flight. It would also be made available to potential international partners. This workshop was planned from the start to be the first in a series. Subsequent meetings, conferences, and symposia will concentrate on topics not able to be covered in December. In addition, to make progress in short meeting, a handful of ground rules were adopted by the planning team and agreed to by the participants. Perhaps the two most notable such ground rules were (1) the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion would be available during the time frame considered by the participants and (2) the International Space Station (ISS) would remain the early linchpin in preparing for Mars exploration over the coming decade. The workshop was organized around three topical breakout sessions: 1. The ISS and the path to Mars: The critical coming decade 2. Affordability and sustainability: what does it mean and what are its implications within guidelines established at the start of the workshop? 3. Notional sequence(s) of cost-achievable missions for the 2020s to 2030s, including capability objectives at each stage and opportunities for coordinated robotic partnerships.

background↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Insertion of Human Factors Concerns into NextGen Programmatic Decisions

Since the costs of proposed improvements in air traffic management exceed available funding, FAA decision makers must select and prioritize what actually gets implemented. We discuss a set of methods to help forecast operational and human performance issues and benefits before new automation is introduced. This strategy could minimize the impact of politics, assist decision makers in selecting and prioritizing potential improvements, make the process more transparent and strengthen the link between the engineering and human factors domains.

air traffic control↗