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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Barren Plateaus Preclude Learning Scramblers

Scrambling processes, which rapidly spread entanglement through many-body quantum systems, are difficult to investigate using standard techniques, but are relevant to quantum chaos and thermalization. In this Letter, we ask if quantum machine learning (QML) could be used to investigate such processes. In this study we prove a no-go theorem for learning an unknown scrambling process with QML, showing that it is highly probable for any variational Ansatz to have a barren plateau landscape, i.e., cost gradients that vanish exponentially in the system size. This implies that the required resources scale exponentially even when strategies to avoid such scaling (e.g., from Ansatz -based barren plateaus or no-free-lunch theorems) are employed. Furthermore, we numerically and analytically extend our results to approximate scramblers. Hence, our work places generic limits on the learnability of unitaries when lacking prior information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing Active Sites in Cu x Pd y Cluster Catalysts by Machine-Learning-Assisted X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Size-selected clusters are important model catalysts because of their narrow size and compositional distributions, as well as enhanced activity and selectivity in many reactions. Still, their structure-activity relationships are, in general, elusive. The main reason is the difficulty in identifying and quantitatively characterizing the catalytic active site in the clusters when it is confined within subnanometric dimensions and under the continuous structural changes the clusters can undergo in reaction conditions. Using machine learning approaches for analysis of the operando X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectra, we obtained accurate speciation of the Cu x Pd y cluster types during the propane oxidation reaction and the structural information about each type. As a result, we elucidated the information about active species and relative roles of Cu and Pd in the clusters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the circular economy: Lessons learned and path forward

Circular economy aims at decoupling human activities from resource use and creating wealth. However, many have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in several methodological approaches being developed to answer that question. This article analyzes and discusses the insights gained from applying agent-based modeling and simulation to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability. This article analyzes the benefits and limitations of this technology and discusses future methodology developments within the circular economy context. Moreover, six limits of the circular economy concept are used to interpret insights from the literature: thermodynamic limits, system boundary limits, limits posed by the physical scale of the economy, limits posed by path dependencies and lock-in, limits of governance and management, and limits of social and cultural definitions. Promising research avenues are to use this methodology with machine learning, industrial ecology methods, and detailed geographic information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unsupervised machine learning discovery of structural units and transformation pathways from imaging data

We show that unsupervised machine learning can be used to learn chemical transformation pathways from observational Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) data. To enable this analysis, we assumed the existence of atoms, a discreteness of atomic classes, and the presence of an explicit relationship between the observed STEM contrast and the presence of atomic units. With only these postulates, we developed a machine learning method leveraging a rotationally invariant variational autoencoder (VAE) that can identify the existing molecular fragments observed within a material. The approach encodes the information contained in STEM image sequences using a small number of latent variables, allowing the exploration of chemical transformation pathways by tracing the evolution of atoms in the latent space of the system. The results suggest that atomically resolved STEM data can be used to derive fundamental physical and chemical mechanisms involved, by providing encodings of the observed structures that act as bottom-up equivalents of structural order parameters. The approach also demonstrates the potential of variational (i.e., Bayesian) methods in the physical sciences and will stimulate the development of more sophisticated ways to encode physical constraints in the encoder–decoder architectures and generative physical laws and causal relationships in the latent space of VAEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systems Health Management and Prognostics Approaches for Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design of Digital Twin Sensing Strategies Via Predictive Modeling and Interpretable Machine Learning

This work develops a methodology for sensor placement and dynamic sensor scheduling decisions for digital twins. The digital twin data assimilation is posed as a classification problem, and predictive models are used to train optimal classification trees that represent the map from observed data to estimated digital twin states. In addition to providing a rapid digital twin updating capability, the resulting classification trees yield an interpretable mathematical representation that can be queried to inform sensor placement and sensor scheduling decisions. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a structural digital twin of a 12 ft wingspan unmanned aerial vehicle. Offline, training data are generated by simulating scenarios using predictive reduced-order models of the vehicle in a range of structural states. Furthermore, these training data can be further augmented using experimental or other historical data. In operation, the trained classifier is applied to observational data from the physical vehicle, enabling rapid adaptation of the digital twin in response to changes in structural health. Within this context, we study the performance of the optimal tree classifiers and demonstrate how they enable explainable structural assessments from sparse sensor measurements and also inform optimal sensor placement.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedback, physics, and forecasts: The emerging paradigm of machine learning-driven battery research

Machine learning (ML) is reshaping how we understand, predict, and optimize electrochemical systems. In batteries, ML accelerates discovery across chemistry, design, and operation by transforming massive experimental and simulated datasets into predictive, interpretable models. This review consolidates a decade of progress in ML-driven battery innovation, from early-cycle feature extraction to operando image analysis and physics-informed modeling. We categorize approaches by data domain and physical fidelity, emphasizing interpretable ML for diagnostics, reinforcement learning for control, and multi-objective optimization for lifetime extension strategies. Additionally, we demonstrate how integrated models accelerate discovery, reduce testing time, and guide sustainable design. Economic analyses furthermore illustrate how these advances can lower cost per cycle and improve circularity. Together, these developments chart a path toward self-optimizing, sustainable battery technologies.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

Securing The Future: 2026 Manufacturing & Critical Infrastructure Threat Landscape

This report outlines the current state of manufacturing weaknesses introduced by the complexities of modern environments, including cloud services and Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with particular attention paid to the unique vulnerabilities encountered by SMMs. It also highlights CyManII’s strategic initiatives and collaborative solutions to mitigate these risks and strengthen the cybersecurity posture of the manufacturing ecosystem. Utilizing data from 2025 to inform forward-looking mitigation strategies, this report provides manufacturers with a clear understanding of both current and emerging cybersecurity threats, as well as practical opportunities to strengthen their cyber ecosystems. The following sections detail key vulnerabilities and threat vectors, along with actionable mitigation strategies, many of which have been developed or piloted through CyManII-led efforts. A thorough understanding of these risks and mitigation strategies is essential for manufacturers seeking to strengthen the security and resilience of their manufacturing operations.

3D Printing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric Aircrafts

Systems Health Managent↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted identification of potential sources of bias in measurements of prompt-fission neutron spectra

Unrecognized sources of uncertainty (USU) can bias the reported mean and/or covariance of experimental nuclear data. These biases, in turn, can propagate through evaluated nuclear data to application simulations or may poorly inform nuclear theory that is fitted to the experimental data. Such unknown sources of bias must be tied to the inherent physical constituents of the measurements such as the characteristics of a detector response or a background reduction technique. Here, in this article, a sparse Bayesian learning model is used to support experts in their efforts to identify and characterize USU in experimental prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) for spontaneous fissioning of 252 Cf by linking observed biases to features of the measurement system. Three different bias components were found. The first acts as a verification case for the algorithm as it identifies a bias coming from a well-known source related to the use of 6 Li in the neutron detection system. The second two cases demonstrate how this method can benefit the evaluation of experimental nuclear data by identifying, quantifying, and relating unknown biases to potential causes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Creation Synthetic Data to Train a Digital Twin to Predict Reactor Operations

Understanding techniques to strengthen the nuclear safeguards regime is crucial in preventing nuclear proliferation due to recent advancements in the nuclear energy industry such as Generation IV reactors and microreactors. Prior to the construction of a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to understand the proliferation potential of the plant's reactor. Digital twins serve as a unique solution to recognizing reactor behavior indicative of nuclear proliferation. A digital twin is defined as a virtual model that works in unison to represent a physical asset, with a transference of data between the virtual and physical assets [1]. This work serves as validation for training a digital twin on synthetic data fabricated via means of Serpent reactor physics and point kinetics equations simulations. In this case this work is based on parameters of Idaho State University's AGN-201 reactor. The synthetic data can then be utilized to train machine learning models in the future to further investigate the utility of these methods. The accuracy of the predicted data is measured against real operational data to verify the reliability of the synthetic data creation methods and decide whether these methods should be used in the future to inform inspectors of a reactor's proliferation potential.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Graph-EAM: An Interpretable and Efficient Graph Neural Network Potential Framework

The development of deep learning interatomic potentials has enabled efficient and accurate computations in quantum chemistry and materials science, circumventing computationally expensive ab initio calculations. However, the huge number of learnable parameters in deep learning models and their complex architectures hinder physical interpretability and affect the robustness of the derived potential. In this work, we propose graph-EAM, a lightweight graph neural network (GNN) inspired by the empirical embedded atom method to model the interatomic potential of single-element structures. Four material systems: platinum, niobium, silicon, and amorphous-carbon, for which quantum simulation data sets are publicly available, are examined to demonstrate that graph-EAM can achieve high energy and force prediction accuracy-comparable or better than existing state-of-the-art machine learning models-with much fewer parameters. It is also shown that the explicit inclusion of the angular information via three-body atomic density increases the prediction accuracy. In conclusion, the accuracy and efficiency of potentials obtained from graph-EAM can help accelerate the molecular dynamics simulation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Semi-supervised graph neural networks for pileup noise removal

Abstract The high instantaneous luminosity of the CERN Large Hadron Collider leads to multiple proton–proton interactions in the same or nearby bunch crossings (pileup). Advanced pileup mitigation algorithms are designed to remove this noise from pileup particles and improve the performance of crucial physics observables. This study implements a semi-supervised graph neural network for particle-level pileup noise removal, by identifying individual particles produced from pileup. The graph neural network is firstly trained on charged particles with known labels, which can be obtained from detector measurements on data or simulation, and then inferred on neutral particles for which such labels are missing. This semi-supervised approach does not depend on the neutral particle pileup label information from simulation, and thus allows us to perform training directly on experimental data. The performance of this approach is found to be consistently better than widely-used domain algorithms and comparable to the fully-supervised training using simulation truth information. The study serves as the first attempt at applying semi-supervised learning techniques to pileup mitigation, and opens up a new direction of fully data-driven machine learning pileup mitigation studies.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the flux effect on the irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steels using machine learning

In-service exposure to high-energy neutrons embrittles reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels. An increase in the yield stress (Δσ y ) results in a corresponding increase in the brittle to ductile transition temperature (ΔT c ). Most existing models underpredict ΔT c at higher fluence following accelerated irradiations in test reactors. High fluence, up to 10 20 n/cm 2 in some cases, will be reached over extended RPV vessel operation of 80 years, or more, at low service flux. Embrittlement has been extensively studied in accelerated, higher flux test reaction irradiations. However, the use of test reactor data naturally raises the question of flux effects. Here, this study used a machine learning approach trained on a set of hardening data, covering a wide range of flux, fluence, and steel compositions to determine the interactive effects of both irradiation and material variables on Δσ y . The analysis included machine learning-based cross-plots of the variable dependence of Δσ y for six core steels (i.e., CM6, LC, LD, LG, LH, and LI), with controlled differences in their Cu and Ni contents. A primary objective is to evaluate an effective to actual fluence (Φt e /Φt) ratio, as a function of flux, fluence, and steel composition. This is information critical to properly use intermediate flux-high fluence data in calibrating a low flux-high fluence embrittlement model. The predicted Φt e /Φt is reasonably consistent with estimates previously derived from a physics-based solute recombination trap model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recent developments in the PySCF program package

PySCF is a Python-based general-purpose electronic structure platform that supports first-principles simulations of molecules and solids as well as accelerates the development of new methodology and complex computational workflows. Here, we explain the design and philosophy behind PySCF that enables it to meet these twin objectives. With several case studies, we show how users can easily implement their own methods using PySCF as a development environment. We then summarize the capabilities of PySCF for molecular and solid-state simulations. Finally, we describe the growing ecosystem of projects that use PySCF across the domains of quantum chemistry, materials science, machine learning, and quantum information science.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗