Tables of joint probabilities useful in evaluating mixed acceptance sampling plans
Tables of joint probabilities useful in evaluating mixed acceptance sampling plans
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Determining probability distributions with a hybrid computer.
Hybrid computer calculation of instantaneous and peak amplitude probability distribution of random signal
RANDOM SIGNAL↗
Guidebook for Limited Sample Probability of Detection (LS-POD) Demonstration for Signal-Response Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Methods
This document provides guidance for performing limited sample probability of detection (LS-POD) demonstration testing with smaller numbers of flawed specimens than the 29 required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B. This document is specifically applicable to NASA programs and projects where NASA Special NDE methods are used to inspect fracture critical human spaceflight metallic hardware when the minimum number of flawed specimens required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B (2019) are not available.
Limited Sample Probability of Detection↗
Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate
The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, ensemble PMP exhibits higher internal variation. Thus high-quality data of both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Visualisation and outlier detection for probability density function ensembles
Abstract Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for functional data—data objects where observations are entire functions—is a difficult problem that has seen significant attention in recent literature. This surge in interest is motivated by the ubiquitous nature of functional data, which are prevalent in applications across fields such as meteorology, biology, medicine and engineering. Empirical probability density functions (PDFs) can be viewed as constrained functional data objects that must integrate to one and be nonnegative. They show up in contexts such as yearly income distributions, zooplankton size structure in oceanography and in connectivity patterns in the brain, among others. While PDF data are certainly common in modern research, little attention has been given to EDA specifically for PDFs. In this paper, we extend several methods for EDA on functional data for PDFs and compare them on simulated data that exhibit different types of variation, designed to mimic that seen in real‐world applications. We then use our new methods to perform EDA on the breakthrough curves observed in gas transport simulations for underground fracture networks.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Persistence Probabilities of Two-Sided (Integrated) Sums of Correlated Stationary Gaussian Sequences
We study the persistence probability for some two-sided, discrete-time Gaussian sequences that are discrete-time analogues of fractional Brownian motion and integrated fractional Brownian motion, respectively. Our results extend the corresponding ones in continuous time in Molchan (Commun Math Phys 205(1):97–111, 1999) and Molchan (J Stat Phys 167(6):1546–1554, 2017) to a wide class of discrete-time processes.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Convergence in High Probability of the Quantum Diffusion in a Random Band Matrix Model
We consider Hermitian random band matrices H in d⩾1 dimensions. The matrix elements H{sub xy}, indexed by x,y∈Λ⊂ℤ{sup d}, are independent, uniformly distributed random variable if |x−y| is less than the band width W, and zero otherwise. We update the previous results of the converge of quantum diffusion in a random band matrix model from convergence of the expectation to convergence in high probability. The result is uniformly in the size |Λ| of the matrix.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
On Probabilities of Moderate Deviations of Empirical Measures for Contiguous Distributions
The large deviation principle for moderate deviation probabilities of empirical measures for contiguous distributions is proved.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Estimation of the Tail of Probability Distribution Through its Characteristic Function
A method for estimation of a probability distribution tail in terms of characteristic function is given.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Small Deviation Probabilities of a Sum of Independent Positive Random Variables, the Common Distribution of Which Decreases at Zero Not Faster Than Exponential Function
We investigate small deviation probabilities of the cumulative sum of independent positive random variables, the common distribution of which decreases at zero not faster than exponential function.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The Asymptotic Behavior of the Optimal Threshold Minimizing the Probability-of-Error Criterion
In this paper we consider the problem of estimation of a signal function from the noised observations via thresholding its wavelet coefficients. We find the asymptotic order of the optimal threshold that minimizes the probability of the maximum error between the estimates and the true wavelet coefficients exceeding a critical value.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences
A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generated by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.
confluence point↗
Some properties of a sequence arising from geometric probability for pairs of hyperplanes intersecting with a convex body
In the paper, the authors investigate properties, including the monotonicity, logarithmic concavity, concavity, and inequalities, of a sequence arising from geometric probability for pairs of hyperplanes intersecting with a convex body.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Fine-structure calculations of energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like iron, Fe XI
Energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for transitions among the 14 LS states belonging to configurations of sulfur-like iron, Fe XI, have been calculated. These states are represented by configuration interaction wavefunctions and have configurations 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 4}, 3s3p{sup 5}, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}3d, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4s, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4p, and 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4d, which give rise to 123 fine-structure energy levels. Extensive configuration interaction calculations using the CIV3 code have been performed. To assess the importance of relativistic effects, the intermediate coupling scheme by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms, such as the one-body mass correction and Darwin term, and spin–orbit, spin–other-orbit, and spin–spin corrections, are incorporated within the code. These incorporations adjusted the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to the available experimental data. Comparisons between the present calculated energy levels as well as oscillator strengths and both experimental and theoretical data have been performed. Our results show good agreement with earlier works, and they might be useful in thermonuclear fusion research and astrophysical applications. -- Highlights: •Accurate atomic data of iron ions are needed for identification of solar corona. •Extensive configuration interaction wavefunctions including 123 fine-structure levels have been calculated. •The relativistic effects by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms are incorporated. •This incorporation adjusts the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to experimental values.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
Energy levels, lifetimes, and transition probabilities for Mn XII and Ge XIX
Energy levels, transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, line strengths, and lifetimes have been calculated for silicon-like manganese and germanium, Mn XII and Ge XIX. The configurations 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 2}, 3s3p{sup 3}, 3s{sup 2}3p3d, 3s3p{sup 2}3d, and 3p{sup 4} were used in the calculations and 88 fine-structure levels were obtained. The fully relativistic GRASP code has been adopted, and results are reported for all electric dipole, electric quadrupole, magnetic dipole, and magnetic quadrupole transitions among levels of Mn XII and Ge XIX. Comparisons have been made with available theoretical and experimental results.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Wavelengths, transition probabilities, and oscillator strengths for M-shell transitions in Co-, Ni-, Cu-, Zn-, Ga-, Ge-, and Se-like Au ions
Wavelengths, transition probabilities, and oscillator strengths have been calculated for M-shell electric dipole transitions in Co-, Ni-, Cu-, Zn-, Ga-, Ge-, and Se-like Au ions. The fully relativistic multiconfiguration Dirac–Fock method, taking quantum electrodynamical effects and the Breit correction into account, was used in the calculations. Calculated energy levels of M-shell excited states for Cu-, Zn-, Ga-, Ge-, and Se-like Au ions from the method were compared with available theoretical and experimental results, and good agreement with them was achieved.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Transition probabilities of the low-lying levels of Kr XXIV
Energy levels, radiative rates, and wavelengths are calculated for all levels of 3s{sup 2}3p, 3s3p{sup 2}, 3s{sup 2}3d, 3p{sup 3}, 3s3p3d, 3p{sup 2}3d and 3s3d{sup 2} configurations of Al-like krypton ion (Kr XXIV). Multiconfigurational Dirac–Hartree–Fock (MCDHF) method is adopted for calculating energy levels and radiative rates. Transition probabilities are reported for E1 and M2 transitions from the ground level. The valence–valence and core–valence correlation effects are accounted for in a systematic way. Breit interactions and quantum electrodynamics effects are estimated in subsequent relativistic configuration interaction calculations. Comparisons are made with the available data in the literature and good agreement has been found which confirms the reliability of our results.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗