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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

BayFlux: A Bayesian method to quantify metabolic Fluxes and their uncertainty at the genome scale

Metabolic fluxes, the number of metabolites traversing each biochemical reaction in a cell per unit time, are crucial for assessing and understanding cell function. 13 C Metabolic Flux Analysis ( 13 C MFA) is considered to be the gold standard for measuring metabolic fluxes. 13 C MFA typically works by leveraging extracellular exchange fluxes as well as data from 13 C labeling experiments to calculate the flux profile which best fit the data for a small, central carbon, metabolic model. However, the nonlinear nature of the 13 C MFA fitting procedure means that several flux profiles fit the experimental data within the experimental error, and traditional optimization methods offer only a partial or skewed picture, especially in “non-gaussian” situations where multiple very distinct flux regions fit the data equally well. Here, we present a method for flux space sampling through Bayesian inference (BayFlux), that identifies the full distribution of fluxes compatible with experimental data for a comprehensive genome-scale model. This Bayesian approach allows us to accurately quantify uncertainty in calculated fluxes. We also find that, surprisingly, the genome-scale model of metabolism produces narrower flux distributions (reduced uncertainty) than the small core metabolic models traditionally used in 13 C MFA. The different results for some reactions when using genome-scale models vs core metabolic models advise caution in assuming strong inferences from 13 C MFA since the results may depend significantly on the completeness of the model used. Based on BayFlux, we developed and evaluated novel methods (P- 13 C MOMA and P- 13 C ROOM) to predict the biological results of a gene knockout, that improve on the traditional MOMA and ROOM methods by quantifying prediction uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the Origins of Anti-Ambipolarity in BBL Polymer: Links to Redox Chemistry, Electronic Structure, and Structural Dynamics

We examine the intrinsic physical-chemical properties of the conjugated ladder-type polymer poly(benzimidazobenzophenanthroline) (BBL) in response to electron transfer. We aim at explaining the origin of the anti-ambipolar behavior behind the observed BBL nonlinear response associated with specific device architectures. To elucidate this point, we use theory and computation based on first principles, including density functional theory optimizations, ab initio molecular dynamics, time-dependent DFT, and Marcus-theory analysis. Our results reveal that this redox response is not simply monotonic but follows an alternating odd/even pattern in which gap narrowing and reopening occur sequentially before near-gapless behavior emerges at high charging. Converging theoretical evidence in this work demonstrates that bell shaped conductivity in BBL originates in its fundamental electronic structure and supramolecular organization.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Derivative-free optimization of a rapid-cycling synchrotron

Here, we develop and solve a constrained optimization model to identify an integrable optics rapid-cycling synchrotron lattice design that performs well in several capacities. Our model encodes the design criteria into 78 linear and nonlinear constraints, as well as a single nonsmooth objective, where the objective and some constraints are defined from the output of Synergia, an accelerator simulator. We detail the difficulties of the 23-dimensional simulation-constrained decision space and establish that the space is nonempty. We use a derivative-free manifold sampling algorithm to account for structured nondifferentiability in the objective function. Our numerical results quantify the dependence of solutions on constraint parameters and the effect of the form of objective function.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization with Neural Network Feasibility Surrogates: Formulations and Application to Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow

In many areas of constrained optimization, representing all possible constraints that give rise to an accurate feasible region can be difficult and computationally prohibitive for online use. Satisfying feasibility constraints becomes more challenging in high-dimensional, non-convex regimes which are common in engineering applications. A prominent example that is explored in the manuscript is the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem, which minimizes power generation costs, while enforcing system feasibility under contingency failures in the transmission network. In its full form, this problem has been modeled as a nonlinear two-stage stochastic programming problem. In this work, we propose a hybrid structure that incorporates and takes advantage of both a high-fidelity physical model and fast machine learning surrogates. Neural network (NN) models have been shown to classify highly non-linear functions and can be trained offline but require large training sets. In this work, we present how model-guided sampling can efficiently create datasets that are highly informative to a NN classifier for non-convex functions. We show how the resultant NN surrogates can be integrated into a non-linear program as smooth, continuous functions to simultaneously optimize the objective function and enforce feasibility using existing non-linear solvers. Overall, this allows us to optimize instances of the SCOPF problem with an order of magnitude CPU improvement over existing methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Closed-Loop Wind Turbine Controllers for Active Wake Mixing Strategies

Wind turbine active wake mixing (AWM) is an exciting new field of research where dynamic actuation, usually on the blade pitch angles, is used to increase wind farm-wide power production. From a controls perspective, the current state-of-the-art AWM strategies are very simple: a dynamic, usually periodic, reference signal is prescribed to actuators in an open-loop (OL) fashion. The actuation is then presumed to have a certain desired effect on the system, i.e., the wind turbine and the flow it affects. However, this system is highly nonlinear and experiences disturbances in the form of wind variations that are not known a priori. As a result, the OL approach might not yield optimal results. In this article, a novel approach is presented, which closes the loop on AWM controllers. A feedback loop is implemented, which uses measurements of the individual blade bending moments that are widely available on modern wind turbines to determine the individual blade pitch angles. A proof of concept of this implementation is presented in this article, and a thorough comparison with the OL method is executed using high-fidelity flow simulations. These simulations show that the novel closed-loop controller does not substantially increase wake mixing but achieves similar performance as the OL controller while reducing fatigue loads on the controlled turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Agent Hierarchical Deep Reinforcement Learning for HVAC Control With Flexible DERs

As electricity consumption in commercial and residential buildings continues to rise, reducing energy costs presents an increasing challenge. Heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which typically account for 40%-50% of a building's energy use, are prime targets for energy savings. Intelligent control of HVAC temperature through the exploitation of HVAC load flexibility brings significant potential to reduce energy consumption and electricity expenses. The nonlinear models of HVAC systems challenge traditional control methods, while the uncertainty introduced by HVAC load flexibility complicates distributed energy resource (DER) management using conventional optimal dispatch techniques. In response to these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach. The lower-level agents focus on balancing comfort and energy conservation, while the upper-level DRL agents optimize the use of DERs to reduce peak demand based on the control outcomes of the HVAC by the lower-level agents. Here, in the upper-level agents, we incorporate a multi-agent structure based on ensemble learning, which acts based on historical and current data without relying on precise load forecasting to address the delayed rewarding issue in DRL. This allows for the effective reduction of energy costs. The proposed method is tested using a real-world microgrid comprising 413 buildings in Southern California, and the results demonstrate that our approach can significantly reduce overall electricity bills while ensuring the comfort of consumers and residents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization and stabilization of Fermilab Booster using hybrid Bayesian/RL framework

PIPII project will raise Fermilab Booster intensity and ramp rate. Beam losses will limit average power and are hard to simulate. Presently, Booster uses operator-guided empirical tuning. This task is challenging due to high dimensionality, multiple objectives, critical safety constraints, and drifts. We developed a synergistic suite of Bayesian optimization (BO) and reinforcement learning (RL) tools to optimize and stabilize beam losses. First, active learning was used to build a rough model. Data was collected parasitically using two novel safety constraint types – nonlinear input space restrictions (based on optics model), and uncertainty constraints (to stop bad steps/beam aborts). We then applied online multi-objective BO with scalarized objectives and fitting to improve/rebalance losses, increasing safety margins by 25%. Using BO model as a safety veto, we tried several on/off-policy RL agents for long term stabilization; SAC had best performance. We found that adding contextual (state) information further improved performance, eventually integrating key knobs like linac phase and temperature into the parameter space. Long term testing is ongoing to enable operational use.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Control Co-Design Modeling Tool for Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines: Preprint

This report describes the ongoing and planned development of the software package CT-Opt (Current/Tidal Optimization), a control co-design modeling tool for marine hydrokinetic turbines. The commercialization of these turbines has faced significant challenges due to the complex, multidisciplinary nature of their design and the extreme environmental conditions of their operation. This project aims to create a modeling tool that will enable the efficient design of robust, cost-competitive hydrokinetic turbine systems. Rather than using traditional optimization methods, CT-Opt combines multiple models across a range of fidelities to enable coupled optimization of the system design and system controller via a control co-design approach. With this method, the parameters that affect system performance are considered more comprehensively at every stage of the design process. The lowest-fidelity, frequency-domain model called by CT-Opt is RAFT (Response Amplitudes of Floating Turbines), which was originally developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to model response amplitudes of floating offshore wind turbines. The highest-fidelity, time-domain model is OpenFAST, which was developed by NREL for land-based and offshore wind turbines. As part of the CT-Opt project, new functionalities will be added to RAFT and OpenFAST to enable the accurate simulation of fixed and floating marine hydrokinetic turbines. In addition to expanding the capabilities of RAFT and OpenFAST, new midfidelity models will be developed. These models will be based on RAFT and OpenFAST and will consist of linearized, state-space models derived from the fully coupled, nonlinear OpenFAST equations and derivative function surrogate models that approximate the nonlinear system behavior. Each model will be coupled with controllers to allow control co-design methods to be applied both within models and across fidelity levels, enabling efficient system optimization.

control co-design↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-level optimization with the koopman operator for data-driven, domain-aware, and dynamic system security

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) like the power grid are critically important but also increasingly vulnerable; ensuring reliable system operation in the face of disruptions is becoming more and more challenging. Multi-Level Optimization (MLO) is a powerful way to model adversarial interactions, which naturally makes it applicable to studying CPS security. However, MLO typically does not address underlying system dynamics, and incorporating nonlinear dynamics is generally infeasible. In this paper, we show how to combine MLO with the Koopman Operator (KO) to remedy this. The KO maps nonlinear dynamics to a lifted space in which those dynamics are linear, thus making it ideal for use with MLO. Moreover, the structure of the KO also provides convenient ways to incorporate domain knowledge into the data-driven process of learning the KO representation of a given system. Here we then demonstrate the use of MLO-KO on a small example problem taken from the power grid domain, discuss the scalability and computational cost of MLO-KO, and identify future research directions for this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deterministic symbolic regression with derivative information: General methodology and application to equations of state

Symbolic regression methods simultaneously determine the model functional form and the regression parameter values by generating expression trees. Symbolic regression can capture the complexity of real–world phenomena but the use of deterministic optimization for symbolic regression has been limited due to the complexity of the search space of existing formulations. Herein we present a novel deterministic mixed–integer nonlinear programming formulation for symbolic regression that incorporates derivative constraints through auxiliary expression trees. By applying the chain rule to mathematical operations, binary expression trees are capable of representing the calculation of first and second derivatives. We apply this formulation to illustrative examples using derivative information to show increased model discrimination capability. In addition, we perform a case study of a thermodynamic equation of state to gain insight on valid functional forms with thermodynamics–based constraints on the first and second derivatives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov method for the simulation of non-thermal plasma discharges with high-order time integration and physics-based preconditioning

A preconditioning framework for the numerical simulation of non-thermal streamer discharges is developed using the Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method. A reduced plasma fluid model is considered, consisting of electrons, one positive ion, one negative ion, and the electrostatic potential. Here, the plasma kinetics model includes ionization, electron-ion recombination, electron attachment, electron detachment, and ion-ion recombination. The governing equations are made dimensionless, discretized in space with finite differences, and integrated in time with a fully implicit method based on high-order backward differentiation formulas. The preconditioning framework is based on a linearized form of the governing equations and physics-based operator splitting. The efficiency of the preconditioning strategy is assessed through two test cases: streamer propagation between parallel plates and an axisymmetric pin-to-pin discharge. The fully implicit approach overcomes traditional restrictions in the time step size due to processes such as electron drift, electron diffusion, and dielectric relaxation. Excellent performance is observed through relevant statistics of the JFNK solver, although the number of linear iterations increases for the pin-to-pin discharge when nonlinear numerical boundary conditions are imposed at the electrodes. Performance studies show scalability with O(100-1000) processors for O(10M) unknowns with ample room for optimization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tradeoffs in single stage drift step recovery diode generator design

A high-voltage generator of nanosecond pulses utilizing a drift step recovery diode (DSRD) as an opening switch in the compression section is designed to operate at peak voltages of 4 kV and repetition rates of 2 MHz in burst mode at reduced voltages. The generator is used to perform empirical studies on the output metrics of a DSRD generator with a focus on matching the circuit of the reverse current loop parameters and DSRD to the load. The dynamic impedance introduced by nonlinear elements in the DSRD was investigated with respect to the driving circuit by varying the number of DSRDs connected in series. Experimental results indicate that optimization of the driving circuit for the DSRD is key to minimizing losses and achieving optimal pulse compression. Furthermore, the results also indicate trends in DSRD performance as larger storage inductances and longer pumping times are used, limiting the pulse compression capabilities of a single stage DSRD generator.

Electrical properties and parameters↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flow-based likelihoods for non-Gaussian inference

We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data, and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned. We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other commonly used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the data. Here, unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for training.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Optimizing the lens sample in a combined galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analysis

We investigate potential gains in cosmological constraints from the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing by optimizing the lens galaxy sample selection using information from Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data and assuming the DES Year 1 metacalibration sample for the sources. We explore easily reproducible selections based on magnitude cuts in i-band as a function of (photometric) redshift, zphot, and benchmark the potential gains against those using the well-established redMaGiC [E. Rozo et al., Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 461, 1431 (2016)MNRAA40035-871110.1093/mnras/stw1281] sample. We focus on the balance between density and photometric redshift accuracy, while marginalizing over a realistic set of cosmological and systematic parameters. Our optimal selection, the MagLim sample, satisfies i<4zphot+18 and has ∼30% wider redshift distributions but ∼3.5 times more galaxies than redMaGiC. Assuming a wCDM model (i.e. with a free parameter for the dark energy equation of state) and equivalent scale cuts to mitigate nonlinear effects, this leads to 40% increase in the figure of merit for the pair combinations of Ωm, w, and σ8, and gains of 16% in σ8, 10% in Ωm, and 12% in w. Similarly, in ΛCDM, we find an improvement of 19% and 27% on σ8 and Ωm, respectively. We also explore flux-limited samples with a flat magnitude cut finding that the optimal selection, i<22.2, has ∼7 times more galaxies and ∼20% wider redshift distributions compared to MagLim, but slightly worse constraints. We show that our results are robust with respect to the assumed galaxy bias and photometric redshift uncertainties with only moderate further gains from increased number of tomographic bins or the inclusion of bin cross-correlations, except in the case of the flux-limited sample, for which these gains are more significant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Information transfer as a framework for optimized phase imaging

In order to efficiently image a non-absorbing sample (a phase object), dedicated phase contrast optics are required. Typically, these optics are designed with the assumption that the sample is weakly scattering, implying a linear relation between a sample’s phase and its transmission function. In the strongly scattering, nonlinear case, the standard optics are ineffective, and the transfer functions used to characterize them are uninformative. We use the Fisher information (FI) to assess the efficiency of various phase imaging schemes and to calculate an information transfer function (ITF). We show that a generalized version of Zernike phase contrast is efficient given sufficient prior knowledge of the sample. We show that with no prior knowledge, a random sensing measurement yields a significant fraction of the available information. Finally, we introduce a generalized approach to common path interferometry that can be optimized to prioritize sensitivity to particular sample features. Each of these measurements can be performed using Fourier lenses and phase masks.

Koppell, Stewart↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning-Based Model Predictive Control of Two-Time-Scale Systems

In this study, we present a general form of nonlinear two-time-scale systems, where singular perturbation analysis is used to separate the dynamics of the slow and fast subsystems. Machine learning techniques are utilized to approximate the dynamics of both subsystems. Specifically, a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a feedforward neural network (FNN) are used to predict the slow and fast state vectors, respectively. Moreover, we investigate the generalization error bounds for these machine learning models approximating the dynamics of two-time-scale systems. Next, under the assumption that the fast states are asymptotically stable, our focus shifts toward designing a Lyapunov-based model predictive control (LMPC) scheme that exclusively employs the RNN to predict the dynamics of the slow states. Additionally, we derive sufficient conditions to guarantee the closed-loop stability of the system under the sample-and-hold implementation of the controller. A nonlinear chemical process example is used to demonstrate the theory. In particular, two RNN models are constructed: one to model the full two-time-scale system and the other to predict solely the slow state vector. Both models are integrated within the LMPC scheme, and we compare their closed-loop performance while assessing the computational time required to execute the LMPC optimization problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗