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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer based systems

Digital fault-tolerant computer-based systems have become commonplace in military and commercial avionics. These systems hold the promise of increased availability, reliability, and maintainability over conventional analog-based systems through the application of replicated digital computers arranged in fault-tolerant configurations. Three tightly coupled factors of paramount importance, ultimately determining the viability of these systems, are reliability, safety, and profitability. Reliability, the major driver affects virtually every aspect of design, packaging, and field operations, and eventually produces profit for commercial applications or increased national security. However, the utilization of digital computer systems makes the task of producing credible reliability assessment a formidable one for the reliability engineer. The root of the problem lies in the digital computer's unique adaptability to changing requirements, computational power, and ability to test itself efficiently. Addressed here are the nuances of modeling the reliability of systems with large state sizes, in the Markov sense, which result from systems based on replicated redundant hardware and to discuss the modeling of factors which can reduce reliability without concomitant depletion of hardware. Advanced fault-handling models are described and methods of acquiring and measuring parameters for these models are delineated.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Detection of Photospheric Features in the Near-Infrared Spectrum of a Class 0 Protostar

We present a near-infrared K-band R ≃ 1500 Keck spectrum of S68N, a Class 0 protostar in the Serpens molecular cloud. The spectrum shows a very red continuum, CO absorption bands, weak or non-existent atomic metal absorptions, and H2 emission lines. The near-IR H2 emission is consistent with excitation in shocks or by X-rays but not by UV radiation. We model the absorption component as a stellar photosphere plus circumstellar continuum emission with wavelength-dependent extinction. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis shows that the most likely model parameters are consistent with a low-temperature, low-gravity photosphere with signifi cant extinction and no more than modest continuum veiling. Its T(eff) ≃ 3260 K effective temperature is similar to that of older, more evolved pre-main-sequence stars, but its surface gravity log g ≃ 2:4 cm/sq.s is approximately 1 dex lower. This implies that the radius of this protostar is a factor of ~ 3 larger than that of 106 yr old T Tauri stars. Its low veiling is consistent with a circumstellar disk having intrinsic near-IR emission that is less than or equal to that of more evolved Class I protostars. Along with the high extinction, this suggests that most of the circumstellar material is in a cold envelope, as expected for a Class 0 protostar. This is the first known detection and analysis of a Class 0 protostar absorption spectrum.

Thomas P Greene↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data

This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2003

Optimal Limited Contingency Planning

For a given problem, the optimal Markov policy over a finite horizon is a conditional plan containing a potentially large number of branches. However, there are applications where it is desirable to strictly limit the number of decision points and branches in a plan. This raises the question of how one goes about finding optimal plans containing only a limited number of branches. In this paper, we present an any-time algorithm for optimal k-contingency planning. It is the first optimal algorithm for limited contingency planning that is not an explicit enumeration of possible contingent plans. By modelling the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process, it implements the Bellman optimality principle and prunes the solution space. We present experimental results of applying this algorithm to some simple test cases.

Meuleau, Nicolas↗
NASA NTRS2021

Computational Inference of Vibratory System with Incomplete Modal Information Using Parallel, Interactive and Adaptive Markov Chains

Inverse analysis of vibratory system is an important subject in fault identification, model updating, and robust design and control. It is challenging subject because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield results that are similar with respect to actual response measurements; and 3) uncertainties inevitably exist. The aim of this research is to leverage upon computational intelligence through statistical inference to facilitate an enhanced, probabilistic framework using incomplete modal response measurement. This new framework is built upon efficient inverse identification through optimization, whereas Bayesian inference is employed to account for the effect of uncertainties. To overcome the computational cost barrier, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to characterize the target function/distribution. Instead of using single Markov chain in conventional Bayesian approach, we develop a new sampling theory with multiple parallel, interactive and adaptive Markov chains and incorporate it into Bayesian inference. This can harness the collective power of these Markov chains to realize the concurrent search of multiple local optima. The number of required Markov chains and their respective initial model parameters are automatically determined via Monte Carlo simulation-based sample pre-screening followed by K-means clustering analysis. These enhancements can effectively address the aforementioned challenges in finite element inverse analysis. The validity of this framework is systematically demonstrated through case studies.

K Zhou↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian analysis for estimating statistical parameter distributions of elasto-viscoplastic material models

High temperature design methods rely on constitutive models for inelastic deformation and failure typically calibrated against the mean of experimental data without considering the associated scatter. Variability may arise from the experimental data acquisition process, from heat-to-heat material property variations, or both and need to be accurately captured to predict parameter bounds leading to efficient component design. Applying the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to produce statistical models capturing the underlying uncertainty in the experimental data is an area of ongoing research interest. This work varies aspects of the Bayesian MCMC method and explores their effect on the posterior parameter distributions for a uniaxial elasto-viscoplastic damage model using synthetically generated reference data. From our analysis with the uniaxial inelastic model we determine that an informed prior distribution including different types of test conditions results in more accurate posterior parameter distributions. The parameter posterior distributions, however, do not improve when increasing the number of similar experimental data. Additionally, changing the amount of scatter in the data affects the quality of the posterior distributions, especially for the less sensitive model parameters. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity study of the model parameters against the likelihood function prior to the Bayesian analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis help to determine the reliability of the posterior distributions and reduce the dimensionality of the problem by fixing the insensitive parameters. The comprehensive study described in this work demonstrates how to efficiently apply the Bayesian MCMC methodology to capture parameter uncertainties in high temperature inelastic material models. Quantifying these uncertainties in inelastic models will improve high temperature engineering design practices and lead to safer, more effective component designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Inference in Transient Surface Kinetics

Here, in this work, we develop a novel Bayesian approach to study the adsorption and desorption of CO onto a Pd(111) surface, a process of great importance in natural sciences. The motivation for this work comes from the recent availability of time-resolved infrared spectroscopy data and the need for model interpretability and uncertainty quantification in chemical processes. The objective is to learn the relevant parameters that characterize the process: coverage with time, rate constants, activation energies, and pre-exponential factors. Our approach consists of three main schemes: (i) a problem design and probabilistic model for the whole system, (ii) a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to learn the hidden coverages and rate constant parameters, and (iii) two Bayesian formulations to infer the activation energies and pre-exponential factors. The flexibility of the Bayesian framework allows for uncertainty quantification where possible and integration of mathematical constraints in the model to reflect the system physically. We found that our results for the activation energies and pre-exponential factor are in agreement with those reported in the experimental literature, independently, and we provide discussions on the advantages and disadvantages as well as applicability to other systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Markov Process to Evaluate the Value Proposition of a Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

To achieve high-capacity factors, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming operation and preventive maintenance programs for plant systems. Manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies, along with time-based replacement of assets irrespective of condition, have resulted in a costly, labor-centric business model. Fortunately, there are technologies that can eliminate unnecessary preventive maintenance activities by deploying risk-informed predictive maintenance, enabling the transition to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will enable plants to optimize and automate maintenance activities, leading to cost reductions since labor is a rising cost and technology is a declining cost. The implementation of scalable technologies and methodologies across plant systems and across the nuclear fleet is critical for successful deployment of a risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy at commercial nuclear power plants. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report describes the technical basis using the Markov Process to evaluate the value proposition for the risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy for the circulating water system. The plant process data from the Salem nuclear plant’s circulating water system is utilized to develop a Markov chain risk models and formulation to estimate the loss and gain in revenue based on plant availability. The outcomes presented in this report provides the technical basis for extensive quantitative evaluation of a scalable risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying electron temperature distributions from time-integrated x-ray emission spectra

K-shell x-ray emission spectroscopy is a standard tool used to diagnose the plasma conditions created in high-energy-density physics experiments. In the simplest approach, the emissivity-weighted average temperature of the plasma can be extracted by fitting an emission spectrum to a single temperature condition. It is known, however, that a range of plasma conditions can contribute to the measured spectra due to a combination of the evolution of the sample and spatial gradients. In this work, we define a parameterized model of the temperature distribution and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the input parameters, yielding uncertainties in the fit parameters to assess the uniqueness of the inferred temperature distribution. Here we present the analysis of time-integrated S and Fe x-ray spectroscopic data from the Orion laser facility and demonstrate that while fitting each spectral region to a single temperature yields two different temperatures, both spectra can be fit simultaneously with a single temperature distribution. We find that fitting both spectral regions together requires a maximum temperature of $1310^{+90}_{-70}$ eV with significant contributions from temperatures down to 200 eV.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series

Abstract. Improving the quantification of soil thermal and physical properties is key to achieving a better understanding and prediction of soil hydro-biogeochemical processes and their responses to changes in atmospheric forcing. Obtaining such information at numerous locations and/or over time with conventional soil sampling is challenging. The increasing availability of low-cost, vertically resolved temperature sensor arrays offers promise for improving the estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature time series, and the possible indirect estimation of physical properties. Still, the reliability and limitations of such an approach need to be assessed. In the present study, we develop a parameter estimation approach based on a combination of thermal modeling, sliding time windows, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to estimate thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty over time, at numerous locations and at an unprecedented vertical spatial resolution (i.e., down to 5 to 10 cm vertical resolution) from soil temperature time series. We provide the necessary framework to assess under which environmental conditions (soil temperature gradient, fluctuations, and trend), temperature sensor characteristics (bias and level of noise), and deployment geometries (sensor number and position) soil thermal diffusivity can be reliably inferred. We validate the method with synthetic experiments and field studies. The synthetic experiments show that in the presence of median diurnal fluctuations ≥ 1.5 ∘C at 5 cm below the ground surface, temperature gradients > 2 ∘C m−1, and a sliding time window of at least 4 d the proposed method provides reliable depth-resolved thermal diffusivity estimates with percentage errors ≤ 10 % and posterior relative standard deviations ≤ 5 % up to 1 m depth. Reliable thermal diffusivity under such environmental conditions also requires temperature sensors to be spaced precisely (with accuracy to a few millimeters), with a level of noise ≤ 0.02 ∘C, and with a bias defined by a standard deviation ≤ 0.01 ∘C. Finally, the application of the developed approach to field data indicates significant repeatability in results and similarity with independent measurements, as well as promise in using a sliding time window to estimate temporal changes in soil thermal diffusivity, as needed to potentially capture changes in bulk density or water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

ALTKAL: An optimum linear filter for GEOS-3 altimeter data

ALTKAL is a computer program designed to smooth sea surface height data obtained from the GEOS 3 altimeter, and to produce minimum variance estimates of sea surface height and sea surface slopes, along with their standard derivations. The program operates by processing the data through a Kalman filter in both the forward and backward directions, and optimally combining the results. The sea surface height signal is considered to have a geoid signal, modeled by a third order Gauss-Markov process, corrupted by additive white noise. The governing parameters for the signal and noise processes are the signal correlation length and the signal-to-noise ratio. Mathematical derivations of the filtering and smoothing algorithms are presented. The smoother characteristics are illustrated by giving the frequency response, the data weighting sequence and the transfer function of a realistic steady-state smoother example. Based on nominal estimates for geoidal undulation amplitude and correlation length, standard deviations for the estimated sea surface height and slope are 12 cm and 3 arc seconds, respectively.

Fang, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Sampling error study for rainfall estimate by satellite using a stochastic model

In a parameter study of satellite orbits, sampling errors of area-time averaged rain rate due to temporal sampling by satellites were estimated. The sampling characteristics were studied by accounting for the varying visiting intervals and varying fractions of averaging area on each visit as a function of the latitude of the grid box for a range of satellite orbital parameters. The sampling errors were estimated by a simple model based on the first-order Markov process of the time series of area averaged rain rates. For a satellite of nominal Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Thiele, 1987) carrying an ideal scanning microwave radiometer for precipitation measurements, it is found that sampling error would be about 8 to 12 pct of estimated monthly mean rates over a grid box of 5 X 5 degrees. It is suggested that an observation system based on a low inclination satellite combined with a sunsynchronous satellite simultaneously might be the best candidate for making precipitation measurements from space.

Shin, Kyung-Sup↗
NASA NTRS1989

A new adaptive control approach for aerospace vehicles with parameter uncertainties

A new stochastic adaptive control structure is developed for the problem of combined parameter estimation and control of aerospace vehicles with changing parameters. Parameter uncertainties are modeled as first-order Gauss-Markov processes, and are introduced to the system dynamics through a small parameter. It is assumed that an accurate inertial measurement unit gives perfect measurements of the state variables. Since the stochastic system is assumed to be Gauss-Markov, the density function of the parameters given these measurements is conditionally Gaussian. Based on this conditionally Gaussian density, the problem of minimizing a quadratic cost over an infinite time horizon can be set up within the framework of stochastic optimal control theory. The optimal feedback control law is derived from a straightforward expansion of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, based on the LQG solution. The resulting nonlinear controller is applied to the pitch axis control of a space platform with uncertain moments of inertia and is shown to produce marked improvement over a fixed controller.

Hahn, Yungsun↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stochastic stability properties of jump linear systems

Jump linear systems are defined as a family of linear systems with randomly jumping parameters (usually governed by a Markov jump process) and are used to model systems subject to failures or changes in structure. The authors study stochastic stability properties in jump linear systems and the relationship among various moment and sample path stability properties. It is shown that all second moment stability properties are equivalent and are sufficient for almost sure sample path stability, and a testable necessary and sufficient condition for second moment stability is derived. The Lyapunov exponent method for the study of almost sure sample stability is discussed, and a theorem which characterizes the Lyapunov exponents of jump linear systems is presented.

Feng, Xiangbo↗