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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

ENSO-Induced Teleconnection: Process-Oriented Diagnostics to Assess Rossby Wave Sources and Ambient Flow Properties in Climate Models

Climate model fidelity in representing ENSO-induced teleconnection is assessed with process-oriented diagnostics that examine a chain of processes, from equatorial Pacific precipitation to the midlatitude circulation pattern over the Pacific–North American regions. Such processes are rarely addressed during model development. Using an upper-tropospheric divergent level, local vorticity gradient of the ambient zonal flow (∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 ) and a restoring force for Rossby waves (β * ) are estimated, the equivalent barotropic vorticity equation is solved, and an anomalous Rossby wave source (RWS') quantified. The analysis is applied to AMIP5 and AMIP6 simulations. For a realistic circulation response representation, the hypothesis that models accurately represent the strength and location of RWS', and spatial variations in β * is tested. Compared to AMIP5, in AMIP6 there are clear improvements in representing RWS' and β * . To validate the hypothesis, the analysis identifies two metrics: spatially coherent RWS' in the subtropical North Pacific, and longitudes of negative β * over the western-central North Pacific. By projecting these metrics in two and three-dimensional views, improvements or degradations in model versions are apparent. If a model’s fidelity in representing ∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 and RWS' are compromised, then radiated Rossby waves are reflected more equatorward, resulting in zonally elongated circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific. Thus, during climate model development, applying this analysis frequently will keep a regular check on the fidelity of the modeled response to anomalous El Niño convection in conjunction with changing model ambient flow dependencies. As a result, this analysis is intended to form a process-oriented diagnostics package, a community contribution to the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing Cloud Radiative Feedbacks by Cloud-Top Phase

Changes in cloud scattering properties and emissivity that arise from atmospheric warming cause substantial radiative feedbacks in model projections of anthropogenic climate change, and the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms is poorly understood. One leading hypothesis is that ice-to-liquid conversions cause clouds to optically thicken, producing a major negative feedback. We test this hypothesis by developing a method to decompose cloud radiative feedbacks by cloud-top phase. The method is applied to an ensemble of six state-of-the-art global climate models run with prescribed sea surface temperature. In these simulations, the global mean of the net cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions ranges from −0.17 to −0.01 W m −2 K −1 , while the overall net cloud feedback ranges from 0.02 to 0.91 W m −2 K −1 . The multimodel mean of the cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions is approximately 19% of the magnitude of the multimodel mean of the overall cloud feedback (−0.10 vs 0.52 W m −2 K −1 ). These results indicate that cloud-phase conversions cause a robust negative feedback by changing cloud scattering and emissivity, but this mechanism makes a modest contribution to the overall cloud feedback at the global scale.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

On CCN Effects upon Convective Cold Pool Timing and Features

Abstract Cold pools produced by deep convection can initiate new convection, and their representation in larger-scale weather and climate models could improve prediction of the extent and timing of upscale growth. Cold pools originate from latent cooling from precipitation changing phase, but little attention has been paid to microphysical influences on cold pool characteristics, particularly CCN effects. Datasets obtained from the CACTI and RELAMPAGO field campaigns, along with idealized numerical modeling, are utilized to investigate the hypothesis that convective storms forming in higher-CCN environments generate their first surface rainfall later, delaying cold pool initiation. Aircraft observations of CCN and shallow convection on 9 days do suggest a CCN effect. Those ingesting more CCN contained fewer drizzle drops, although a decreased cloud depth with increasing CCN was also likely a limiting factor. In three of those cases that later developed into deep convection, the timing of cold pool onset was not ubiquitously delayed in environments with more CCN. Idealized numerical simulations suggest that an ordinary thunderstorm can experience small delays in cold pool onset with increasing CCN due to changes in graupel production, but CCN effects on the cold pool from a supercell thunderstorm can be easily overpowered by its unique dynamics. A strong inverse relationship between cold pool strength, expansion rate, and depth with increasing CCN is suggested by the results of the ordinary thunderstorm simulation. Further consideration of CCN appears warranted for future cold pool parameterization development, but other environmental factors affecting storm morphology and precipitation cannot be ignored.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme heat vulnerability of manufactured housing in arid urban environments

This article explores the role of land cover in relation to housing type and tenure in shaping exposure to extreme urban heat, focusing on residents of mobile and manufactured housing (MH). We hypothesize that MH residents will experience greater exposure to extreme heat than those living in other housing types due to lower levels of proximate vegetation. This hypothesis is based on the unique property relations and tenure regimes that characterize MH, which may disincentivize investments in planting and maintaining trees and vegetation in arid environments. To test this hypothesis, we compare the amount of vegetation on properties across housing types, within-type tenure arrangements and between three urbanized areas in Arizona with different levels of exposure to extreme heat. To conduct this comparison, we combine multispectral land cover data for 1.7 million parcels with tax assessor data and building footprints to measure land cover at a high resolution. We find that MH units have significantly less vegetation than single-family residential properties, and that MH units in MH parks have less vegetation than those on individual lots. We conclude that municipalities should promote (e.g. through incentives or other policy interventions) the planting of more vegetation around MH units where there is a risk of extreme heat exposure. Future research can expand this analysis with a closer examination of how municipal ordinances and policies affect land cover by housing type and tenure.

heat↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Impacts of Legacy and Contemporary Nitrogen Inputs on N2O and CO2 Emissions in Miscanthus and Maize Cultivated Soils

Nutrient inputs influence the sustainability of bioenergy crop production through contemporary (shortly after addition) and legacy effects (persisting over years) on microbial nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the relative importance of contemporary and legacy effects and how that could vary by crop functional types is poorly understood. Considering its rhizomatous roots and perennial growth, we hypothesized that Miscanthus × giganteu s ( M × g ) would be more sensitive to legacy N fertilization and the historical context of its environment than an annual crop like maize. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effects of legacy and contemporary N inputs on nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as key N cycling genes in soils where M × g and maize were grown. A 150-day soil incubation experiment was conducted using soils from a long-term M × g and maize fertility experiment with three historic N fertilization rates (0, 112, and 336 kg N ha−1 year−1) and a contemporary amendment (60 mg N kg−1) with negative control (0 mg N kg−1). We observed significant increases in cumulative N2O emissions in M × g soils relative to maize soils, particularly at higher legacy fertilization rates, while contemporary N had no significant effect. Bacterial amoA gene abundance, which plays a significant role in nitrification in nutrient-rich soils, also increased with higher legacy fertilization rates in M × g soils but was unaffected by the contemporary N. In maize soils, legacy and contemporary N did not significantly affect N2O emissions, but cumulative CO2 emissions and amoA gene abundance significantly increased. The abundances of norB genes were not significantly influenced by either legacy fertilization or contemporary N amendments in either soil. Our findings demonstrate the greater importance of fertilization history over contemporary N in mediating soil N2O emissions, particularly for perennial bioenergy crops.

Carbon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Granick revisited: Synthesizing evolutionary and ecological evidence for the late origin of bacteriochlorophyll via ghost lineages and horizontal gene transfer

Photosynthesis—both oxygenic and more ancient anoxygenic forms—has fueled the bulk of primary productivity on Earth since it first evolved more than 3.4 billion years ago. However, the early evolutionary history of photosynthesis has been challenging to interpret due to the sparse, scattered distribution of metabolic pathways associated with photosynthesis, long timescales of evolution, and poor sampling of the true environmental diversity of photosynthetic bacteria. Here, we reconsider longstanding hypotheses for the evolutionary history of phototrophy by leveraging recent advances in metagenomic sequencing and phylogenetics to analyze relationships among phototrophic organisms and components of their photosynthesis pathways, including reaction centers and individual proteins and complexes involved in the multi-step synthesis of (bacterio)-chlorophyll pigments. We demonstrate that components of the photosynthetic apparatus have undergone extensive, independent histories of horizontal gene transfer. This suggests an evolutionary mode by which modular components of phototrophy are exchanged between diverse taxa in a piecemeal process that has led to biochemical innovation. We hypothesize that the evolution of extant anoxygenic photosynthetic bacteria has been spurred by ecological competition and restricted niches following the evolution of oxygenic Cyanobacteria and the accumulation of O 2 in the atmosphere, leading to the relatively late evolution of bacteriochlorophyll pigments and the radiation of diverse crown group anoxygenic phototrophs. This hypothesis expands on the classic “Granick hypothesis” for the stepwise evolution of biochemical pathways, synthesizing recent expansion in our understanding of the diversity of phototrophic organisms as well as their evolving ecological context through Earth history.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

2004-2006 Puget Sound Traffic Choices Study

The 2004-2006 Puget Sound Traffic Choices Study tested the hypothesis that time-of-day variable road tolling in Seattle, Washington, could reduce traffic congestion and generate revenue. In 2002, the Puget Sound Regional Council received a grant from the Federal Highway Administration for a pilot project on congestion-based tolling. To test the hypothesis, the study placed global positioning system data loggers into the vehicles of about 275 households in the Seattle metropolitan area. The project recorded roughly 18 months of trip data (from November 2004 to April 2006) and included more than 400 vehicles. For most vehicles, the tolling influence experiment phase of the study began in July 2005 and lasted for 32 weeks. The three months immediately preceding the experiment period for each vehicle served as the control period.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial potentiometric sensor technology for real-time detecting and monitoring of toxic metals in aquatic matrices

Considering that toxic metals can affect metabolic processes in microorganisms adversely, it can be hypothesized that these metals in water matrices would induce a decrease in metabolic activity of the biofilm microorganisms populating the surface of a sensing electrode, which could be registered as a change in the open-circuit potential (OCP) generated by the biofilm microorganisms. The goal of this study was to test this hypothesis and demonstrate the underlying principle that microbial potentiometric sensor (MPS) technology could be used for long-term and real-time monitoring and detection of rapid changes in metal concentrations in realistic aquatic environments. To address the goal, four objective were addressed: (1) a batch reactor with three graphite-based MPS electrodes was fabricated; (2) a set of single-ion solutions and one multiple ion solution were prepared reflecting realistic concentrations of metals found in electroplating wastewaters; (3) the responses of the MPS to the simultaneous presence of multiple toxic metal ions in a single solution were measured; and (4) the changes of the MPS signals to the presence of individual metal ion solutions were examined. While the hypothesis was validated, the study also revealed that the MPS was sufficiently sensitive to not only detect, but also quantify, toxic metal ion concentrations in aqueous solutions. The coefficients of determination, which were R 2 > 0.995, and responsiveness of <1 μmol/L for some toxic metal cations, strongly support the performance of MPS technology in the echelons of expensive analytical tools capable detecting and measuring trace elements.The magnitude of the MPS response was toxic metal specific. When the molar concertation normalizes the inhibition portion of the signal area, the assessed sensitivity order was: Se>Cd>Pb>Ag>Ni> Zn. The study provides valuable information for enforcement agents, environmental professionals, and wastewater treatment operators, so toxic metal pollution and its detrimental impacts can be prevented and mitigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discrete Measurements of the Least Horizontal Principal Stress from Core Data: An Application of Viscoelastic Stress Relaxation

Summary The emerging Paradox Oil Play in southeastern Utah is among the most significant unconventional plays in the western USA. The mean total undiscovered oil resources within just the Pennsylvanian Cane Creek interval of the Paradox Basin are believed to exceed 215 million barrels. However, to date, less than 5% (~9 million barrels) of the total Cane Creek resource has been produced from fewer than 40 wells, and only approximately one-half of those are horizontal wells. More than 95% of production is from the central Cane Creek Unit (CCU). Natural fractures are a key feature of many production wells, but stimulation by induced hydraulic fractures is not consistently successful. We hypothesize that more effective production in this play will rely on better fundamental characterization, especially on better quantification of the state of stress. Approximately 110 ft of core, well logs, and a diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) were acquired from the State 16-2 well within the CCU. With these data, we applied two methods to constrain and clarify the state of stress. The first technique, the Simpson’s coefficient method, provides lower bounds on the two horizontal principal stresses and relies on only limited data. Alternatively, the viscoelastic stress relaxation (VSR) method is used to estimate the least horizontal principal stress, building on observations that principal stresses become more isotropic as the viscous behavior of a rock is more pronounced. Results of these two methods support the hypothesis that the state of stress in the CCU of the Paradox Basin is nearly lithostatic and isotropic. Other factors consistent with this hypothesis include high formation pore pressure, which tends to reduce the possible stress states by changing the frictional failure equilibrium; lack of induced fractures in the core, which should be present in the case of stress anisotropy; and interbedded halite layers, which given their high degree of ductility, probably lead to greater VSR for the entire sedimentary package.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coupling between interfacial charge and mechanical deformation at high temperatures in ceramics. Final report

Basic research, under this project, has led to new fundamental discoveries in the effect of electric field (and temperature) on diffusion kinetics, electroluminescence and electronic conductivity in ceramic materials. For example, yttria stabilized zirconia sinters in just seconds well below 1000°C, while, at the same time, exhibiting a highly non-linear rise in conductivity, and intense electroluminescence. The phenomenon has been shown to occur in nearly all ceramics whether they are ionic or electronic conductors, or insulators. The rise in conductivity leads to Joule heating but in-situ measurements with a platinum standard at APS and Brookhaven (NSLS-II) have shown that the temperatures are much below what would have been needed to sinter in a few seconds. We have explored the hypothesis that huge concentrations of Frenkel pairs of vacancies and interstitials are produced. While these point defects accelerate sintering (by the interstitials being transported to the pores and the vacancies to the grain boundaries), they may also produce electron-hole pairs which can impart high electrical conductivity or recombine to emit photons. Many measurements, including in-situ measurements of lattice expansion are consistent with this hypothesis. However, the energy barrier for generating Frenkels in zirconia for example is much larger than can be expected at temperature and electrical fields in these experiments. Most recent work suggests that short wavelength phonons play a critical role in the genesis of the “flash” phenomenon. For example, the Debye temperature has been shown to be the lower bound for initiating flash. Molecular dynamics simulations have shown that large concentrations of Frenkel pairs can form under the proliferation of “optical” phonons at the edge of the Brillouin zone, that is with a wavelength at or below the lattice parameter. This project has led to the development of new experimental techniques as well as a software hardware interface for process and control and data analysis in real time, with a time scale of less than one second. This approach spells a new paradigm in materials science research. It potential impact on high rate manufacturing is self evident.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

BioGeoChemistry of Actinides (LLNL SFA OBER - SBR FY20 Program Management and Performance Report)

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA is to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach includes: (1) Field Studies (Research Thrust 1) that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies (Research Thrust 2) that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field. These research thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), allowing the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as an international resource for environmental radiochemistry research (Figure 1). Research Thrusts 1 and 2 are guided by broad central hypotheses: Thrust 1 Hypothesis: Biogeochemical processes occurring on the timescale of years to decades lead to greater actinide recalcitrance in sediments and limit their migration in surface and groundwater. Thrust 2 Hypothesis: Long-term biogeochemical processes include mineral and surface alteration, which leads to stabilization of actinide surface associations or incorporation into mineral precipitates. Our strategic goal is to use the knowledge gained from our Science Plan to advance our understanding of the behavior of actinides, providing DOE with the scientific basis for remediation and long-term stewardship of DOE’s legacy sites and, more broadly, increasing our understanding of transport phenomena in environmental systems sciences with a particular emphasis on environmentally relevant (long-term) timescales. Although our focus is on actinide biogeochemistry, the increased focus on biogeochemistry at unique Test Bed locations associated with this SFA is providing fundamental information on redox processes and associated microbiological processes that control the cycling of redox sensitive metals under dynamic and transient biogeochemical conditions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Annual Scientific Focus Area Report for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Project: Phase II

The project's long-term goal is to assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system models that address the grand challenge of actionable predictions of Earth system variability and change, with an emphasis on the most critical scientific questions facing the nation and DOE. The grand challenge will be addressed by overcoming three major limitations: Pushing the high-resolution frontier of Earth system modeling through a combination of strategic model development and computational advances targeting exascale computers and beyond. Bridging the gap in scales and processes by developing a new class of models that couple the natural, managed, and man-made systems across scales to address energy sector vulnerability to variability and change. The project will achieve its goal through four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. To achieve the Grand Challenge of actionable Earth system predictions to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and DOE, the E3SM project defined its strategy in a fifteen-year roadmap with four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model ; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. Figure 1 depicts the E3SM Project Roadmap, showing the relationships among the first three major project elements: the simulations, the modeling system to perform those simulations, and the machines on which they will be executed. Unlike the other three elements that have distinct but overlapping phases, the fourth element, the infrastructure, will evolve continuously based on the requirements imposed by project needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compensation Between Poleward Energy Transports in the Ocean and Atmosphere. Final report

Equator-to-pole energy transport by the ocean and atmosphere is a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate. In his 1964 seminal paper, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the atmosphere fluxes and the ocean heat storage do not vary substantially, which is a reasonable assumption on long time scales, the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transports should be equal and opposite. Despite its fundamental importance in understanding the climate system, this hypothesis, the so-called Bjerknes compensation, has been tested by only a limited number of studies. The goal of our project is to investigate the degree of compensation in poleward energy transports by the atmosphere and ocean and its dependence on the time scale, latitude and background climate primarily based on a large suite of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations to test the Bjerknes compensation hypothesis. Our particular emphases are to understand: (1) robustness of the degree of the compensation across the various simulations with differing parameterizations and initial conditions, (2) the competing role of atmosphere-ocean couplings through the momentum flux and buoyancy flux in enabling or deterring the compensation, and (3) the role of compensation in the leading modes of variability in the atmosphere and ocean

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing subtle variations in the actinyl oxo reactivity through characterization of neptunyl complexes. Final Report

Formation of the actinyl cation, [An(V,VI)O 2 ] n+ (n = 1,2), imparts unique chemical properties to the lighter actinide elements (U, Np, and Pu) that has yet to be fully understood. The axial O atoms (oxo) of the [An(VI)O 2 ] 2+ are considered weak Lewis bases that exhibit only meager interact with other metal cations and regarded as poor hydrogen acceptors for nearby water molecules. Oxo atoms of [An(V)O 2 ] + should engage in stronger bonding interactions due to a higher degree of Lewis basicity, but the actual interactions have yet to be fully explored. Intermolecular interactions can impact radionuclide separations, corrosion of spent fuel, and mobility of actinides in environmental systems; there is, therefore, a critical need to understand how the subtle difference in electronic properties of the An(V) and An(VI) metal center influence actinyl chemistry. The objective of this proposal was to determine the chemical components that influence the intermolecular interactions occurring between neptunyl ([Np(V)O 2 ] + and [Np(VI)O 2 ] 2+ ) cations and neighboring species. My overall hypothesis was that the intermolecular attraction that occurs between the neptunyl oxo atoms and neighboring species (H atoms, low-valent cations, actinyl cations) is primarily controlled by the electronic properties of the actinyl cation, but can be further influenced by the electron donating properties of the equatorial ligands. The hypothesis was tested through the following research objectives: (1) Determine the fundamental differences in H-bonding between Np(V)O 2+ and Np(VI)O 2 2+ and neighboring donor molecules; (2) Identify the major differences in bonding between low-valence metal cations and neptunyl oxo groups, and (3) Assess the impact of the equatorial ligand on the formation of cation-cation interactions within molecular species. Major outcomes of the research include: (1) More precisely identifying oxo interactions (actinyl-cation; actinyl-actinyl, actinyl-hydrogen) and the factors that impact the vibrational modes for actinyl cation; (2) Identification of H-bonding modes for the [An(V,VI)O 2 ] n+ (n = 1,2), with direct H-bonding interactions to the oxo group of the Np(V)O 2+ cation more prevalent than in hexavalent species and recognition of the importance of H-bonding networks, that can impart bond asymmetry and activation of vibrational modes with the actinyl moiety; (3) Delineation of the importance of charge density for engaging the cation-oxo interaction for both pentavalent and hexavalent species; (4) Determining the importance of sterics and ligand binding in formation of specific actinyl-actinyl interactions and the resulting vibrational modes associated with this bonding motify and (5) Understanding how the functionalization of the ligand can impact redox stability of neptunyl cations. Deliverables from this work include 11 peer-reviewed manuscripts and 13 (including six by graduate students) oral/poster presentations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Understanding of Low-to-Moderate Income Customers’ Adoption and Financial Qualification in Community Solar (Final Technical Report)

When Solstice began working in the community solar industry, it quickly became clear that there was a wide disparity along race and class lines in terms of what kind of household traditional solar offerings benefited. Solstice is an organization that aligns itself to the principles of a Just Transition, or the concept that a transition to a green economy should benefit and prioritize historically marginalized groups of people. Given that low-income communities are disproportionately burdened by our current polluting fossil fuel economy, Solstice set out to investigate the root causes of the exclusion of low to moderate income (LMI) households in the community solar market. As we worked more and more with financiers, developers, and LMI households, we recognized that significant barriers to entry in a developer-owned project were credit threshold requirements. A FICO score of 750 and higher discriminates against LMI households that are not financially stable enough to take on multiple lines of credit (or who may not have been deemed credit worthy enough to access a line of credit) yet who may have been reliable utility customers. As Solstice began looking further into preliminary data and speaking to community-based organizations (CBOs) that serve LMI households, we found our hypothesis to be worth investigating; there was indeed a subset of LMI households with poor FICO scores (or no FICO score at all) that had perfect bill payment history. Though initially Solstice was intent on gathering a body of data to prove or disprove this hypothesis, we were also concerned that all this proof of a financially stable and reliable customer was not being incorporated into FICO, and wondered if such a score would be possible. After preliminary research into the existence of alternative scores, Solstice realized that many mission-driven lending institutions rely on alternative metrics that are formulated for their specific industry. However, we also realized that community solar did not have an alternative credit underwriting mechanism, though there was great need from solar financiers for one. We anticipated that the creation of an EnergyScore would contribute to financiers’ need to qualify more people, as these entities are desperately looking for ways to lower the cost of customer acquisition. FICO turns away nearly 50% of potential customers (according to our own acquisition experience), and much of the community solar industry is realizing that FICO is not the perfect qualifying mechanism. Additionally, with a grounding in energy justice, just transitions, and climate justice, Solstice recognizes the need for a solution that addresses a more urgent need for LMI households to access renewable energy savings and relieve energy burdens. With funding from the Department of Energy, we gathered the data necessary to build the EnergyScore, reached out to mission-driven developers willing to test the metric, and secured several demonstration projects to pilot the EnergyScore. After acquiring customers for these demo projects using the EnergyScore, we will be continuously collecting customer payment behavior data. Though it goes beyond the scope of this project, we plan to disseminate this de-identified data with the wider community solar industry, which includes not only financiers and developers, but other mission-driven nonprofits, solar cooperatives, community-based organizations, environmental justice activists, and academics. While we intend to disprove the notion that LMI households cannot be included in projects without acutely increasing the risk to project finances, we also hope the data can be used to negotiate better pricing of systems and terms of ownership for community groups seeking to build inclusive projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗