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At least 523 records · Page 29

Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-Like World

The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the Astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems very different from the one which we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for its large moon. Using a three dimensional general circulation model (3-D GCM) with a fully-coupled ocean we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earths orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve evolution of the Earth-like planets orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.066 on a time scale of 4500 years, and from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. We discover that during most of the 6500 year scenario the planet would experience a moist greenhouse effect when near periastron. This could have implications for the ability of such a world to retain an ocean on time scales of 109 years. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitabilty of these worlds. These are the first such 3-D GCM simulations using a fully-coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

Stability↗

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

NIR-Driven Moist Upper Atmospheres of Synchronously Rotating Temperate Terrestrial Exoplanets

H2O is a key molecule in characterizing atmospheres of temperate terrestrial planets, and observations of transmission spectra are expected to play a primary role in detecting its signatures in the near future. The detectability of H2O absorption features in transmission spectra depends on the abundance of water vapor in the upper part of the atmosphere. We study the three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric H2O for synchronously rotating Earth-sized aquaplanets using the general circulation model (GCM) ROCKE-3D, and examine the effects of total incident flux and stellar spectral type. We observe a more gentle increase of the water vapor mixing ratio in response to increased incident flux than one-dimensional models suggest, in qualitative agreement with the climate-stabilizing effect of clouds around the substellar point previously observed in GCMs applied to synchronously rotating planets. However, the water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere starts to increase while the surface temperature is still moderate. This is explained by the circulation in the upper atmosphere being driven by the radiative heating due to absorption by water vapor and cloud particles, causing efficient vertical transport of water vapor. Consistently, the water vapor mixing ratio is found to be well-correlated with the near-infrared portion of the incident flux. We also simulate transmission spectra based on the GCM outputs, and show that for the more highly irradiated planets, the H2O signatures may be strengthened by a factor of a few, loosening the observational demands for a H2O detection.

Fujii, Yuka↗

The Use of MERRA-2 Near Surface Meteorology to Understand the Behavior of Planetary Boundary Layer Heights Derived from Wind Profiler Data over the US Great Plains

The atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that underlies the MERRA-2 reanalysis includes a suite of physical parameterizations that describe the processes that occur in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The data assimilation system assures that the atmospheric state variables used as input to these parameterizations are constrained to the best fit to all of the available observations. Many studies, however, have shown that the GCM-based estimates of MERRA-2 PBL heights are biased high, and so are not reliable for application related to constituent transport or the carbon cycle. A new 20-year record of PBL heights was derived from Wind Profiler (WP) backscatter data measured at a wide network of stations throughout the US Great Plains and has been validated against independent estimates. The behavior of these PBL heights shows geographical and temporal variations that are difficult to attribute to particular physical processes without additional information that are not part of the observational record. In the present study, we use information on physical processes from MERRA-2 to understand the behavior of the WP derived PBL heights. The behavior of the annual cycle of both MERRA-2 and WP PBL heights shows three classes of behavior: (i) canonical, where the annual cycle follows the annual cycle of the sun, (ii) delayed, where the PBL height reaches its annual maximum after the annual maximum of the solar insolation, and (iii) double maxima, where the PBL height begins to rise with the solar insolation but falls sometimes during the summer and then rises again. Although the magnitude of these types of variations is described by the WP PBL record, the explanation for these behaviors and the relationship to local precipitation, temperature, hydrology and sensible and latent heat fluxes is articulated using information from MERRA-2.

MERRA↗

The Atmosphere-Ocean Interface Layer of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model and Data Assimilation System Volume 51

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes modules for sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal warming and cool-skin layers. To support the application of a coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation capability, the GCM needs to be flexible enough to support both coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) configurations, with only minor configuration changes at the user interface. This document presents a formulation of an atmosphere-ocean interface layer (AOIL) that serves this purpose. Previous work by Akella et al. (2017) described a version of a model for near-surface temperature variations, including both both diurnal warming and cool-skin effects, that has been used since 2017 in the near-real-time GEOS FP (forward processing) weather analysis and forecasting system. The diurnal cycle of SST in that version of the GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS) undergoes a sharp decay in the late afternoon (local time). The updated AOIL presented here includes a modification of the similarity function used in the diurnal warming model. Results from offline model runs illustrate an improvement in the near-surface (less than 0:5m depth) diurnal cycle compared to the original formulation. The new formulation requires minimal parameter tuning, and the improvements are robust across long (several month) simulation periods. This new model formulation, however, retains some deficiences from the previous module, such as a small warm bias in calm wind conditions for water depths below 1m. Our future work would include surface salinification and sea-ice into the AOIL.

Koster, Randal D.↗

The Use of MERRA-2 Near Surface Meteorology to Understand the Behavior of Planetary Boundary Layer Heights Derived from Wind Profiler Data over the US Great Plains

The atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that underlies the MERRA-2 reanalysis includes a suite of physical parameterizations that describe the processes that occur in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The data assimilation system assures that the atmospheric state variables used as input to these parameterizations are constrained to the best fit to all of the available observations. Many studies, however, have shown that the GCM-based estimates of MERRA-2 PBL heights are biased high, and so are not reliable for boundary layer studies.A 20-year record of PBL heights was derived from Wind Profiler (WP) backscatter data measured at a wide network of stations throughout the US Great Plains and has been validated against independent estimates. The behavior of these PBL heights shows geographical and temporal variations that are difficult to attribute to particular physical processes without additional information that are not part of the observational record.In the present study, we use information on physical processes from MERRA-2 to understand the behavior of the WP derived PBL heights. The behavior of the annual cycle of both MERRA-2 and WP PBL heights shows four classes of behavior: (i) canonical, characterized by a monthly progression in PBL height that follows the solar insolation, (ii) double peak, characterized by canonical behavior that is interrupted by a minimum in July, (iii) late peak, characterized by a suppressed heights in May and June, and return to canonical in July and August, and (iv) early peak where the PBL height rises with solar insolation but is suppressed later in the summer. The explanation for these behaviors and the relationship to local precipitation, temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, net radiation and aerosol load is articulated using information from MERRA-2.

Salmun, Haydee↗

Thermal Modeling of Mars Ground for Surface Missions

Thermal analysis packages are capable of including ground temperature effects for orbital and surface thermal analyses. In particular, Thermal Desktop® offers the option of specifying ground temperatures as a function of time for planetary surface modeling. While suitable for many cases, this approach is not sufficient if an object has local interactions with the ground that could significantly affect the ground temperature. Ground modeling is necessary for the Mars 2020 rover thermal design and analysis since shadowing and heat dissipation from the rover’s Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) can result in significant temperature deviations of the local ground. The Mars 2020 thermal team is explicitly modeling the Martian ground so that these local temperature effects can be captured. The upper portion of the ground is modeled, and material and optical properties of the ground are varied in order to match data collected from orbiting science instruments. Atmospheric surface temperature, sky temperatures, and solar loads from a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) are used as boundary conditions, resulting in a ground surface temperature profile consistent with the GCM predictions. The rover model is then placed on this modeled ground so that the effects of shadowing and MMRTG dissipation on the ground temperature can be captured.

Farias, Edgardo↗

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering significant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

cloud↗

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering signi􀂦cant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

clouds↗

Tree-ring cellulose δ(18)O records similar large-scale climate influences as precipitation δ(18)O in the Northwest Territories of Canada

Stable oxygen isotopes measured in tree rings are useful for reconstructing climate variability and explaining changes in physiological processes occurring in forests, complementing other tree-ring parameters such as ring width. Here, we analyzed the relationships between different climate parameters and annually resolved tree-ring δ(18)O records (δ(18)O(TR)) from white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench]Voss) trees located near Tungsten (Northwest Territories, Canada) and used the NASA GISS ModelE2 isotopically-equipped general circulation model (GCM) to better interpret the observed relationships. We found that the δ(18)O(TR) series were primarily related to temperature variations in spring and summer, likely through temperature effects on the precipitation δ(18)O in spring, and evaporative enrichment at leaf level in summer. The GCM simulations showed significant positive relationships between modelled precipitation δ(18)O over the study region and surface temperature and geopotential height over northwestern North America, but of stronger magnitudes during fall-winter than during spring–summer. The modelled precipitation δ(18)O was only significantly associated with moisture transport during the fall-winter season. The δ(18)O(TR) showed similar correlation patterns to modelled precipitation δ(18)O only during spring–summer when water matters more for trees, with significant positive correlations with surface temperature and geopotential height, but no correlations with moisture transport. Overall, the δ(18)O(TR) records for northwestern Canada reflect the same significant large-scale climate patterns as precipitation δ(18)O for spring–summer, and therefore have potential for reconstructing past atmospheric dynamics in addition to temperature variability in the region.

paleoclimate↗

Heat-death by volcano - how Venus went rogue?

The idea of a habitable Venus epoch has gained traction in recent years via 1-D and 3-D General Circulation Modeling (GCM) efforts [1,2,3]. Although recent work has supported an alternative permanent hot and dry scenario [4]. However, the habitable scenario presents us with a conundrum - how does a terrestrial planet transform from temperate to hot-house? For decades it was proposed that the gradual brightening of the sun was the probable cause [5]. Yet 4 billion years ago Venus was receiving nearly 1.4 times the insolation that Earth receives today, and many studies have put Earth at the inner boundary of the habitable zone today [6]. The newer 3-D GCM efforts have demonstrated that if Venus had an early habitable period, that the cloud-albedo feedback responsible for maintaining temperate surface conditions [7] could still be in operation today. From this perspective increasing insolation through time cannot be an answer to the transition from habitable to hot-house. We propose that the 'Great Climate Transition' (GCT) was trigged by simultaneous large igneous provinces (LIPs) akin to those like the Siberian Traps responsible for the End Permian [8]. We have taken the most up to date LIP database for Earth [9] and characterized their distribution through time as random or nearly random. Next we initiate a large suite of Monte Carlo simulations based on this record and generate the likelihood for simultaneous, or environmentally overlapping events in this hypothetical setup. We find the probability of such events to be quite high, a probable cause for Venus' GCT, and a possible harbinger of things to come for Earth.

Venus↗

Scientific Data From Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project

This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understanding of how changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation perturb the Earth’s radiation balance and its climate response in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we provide global and annual mean results for a large set of coupled atmospheric-ocean GCM simulations and a description of how to easily extract files from the dataset. The simulations consist of single idealized perturbations to the climate system and have been shown to achieve important insight in complex climate simulations. We therefore expect this data set to be valuable and highly used to understand simulations from complex GCMs and Earth System Models for various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercompariso↗

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part III: Simulated Observables - The Return of the Spectrum

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-le and, subsequently its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI so far: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (part II). Here, we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5-σ detection of CO2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO2. That number can vary by 41- 56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of ~ 50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the inter-transit variability induced by weather patterns and changes of terminator cloudiness between transits. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES).

Exoplanet atmospheres↗

Mars Global Climate Modeling.

Scientists use Global Climate Models (GCMs) to better under the current and past climate states of terrestrial (solid surface) bodies in our solar system and beyond, and the physical processes that control them. GCMs are complex, multi-dimensional computer codes that can generally be divided into two parts: the geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) framework, which represents accelerations and spatially resolved processes, and the physics routines, which provide the forcing functions for the circulation. Producing a GCM that is appropriate for a particular body—Mars, for example—requires implementing the appropriate physics routines (e.g., radiative transfer, planetary boundary layer physics, dust lifting physics to generate dust storms, etc.) for that body. In this talk, I will give an overview of the components of the NASA Ames Mars GCM and discuss some of the scientific questions we address with this state-of-the-art numerical model.

Melinda A. Kahre↗

ROCKE-3D 2.0: An Updated General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), the generalized 3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. ROCKE-3D version 2.0 is a descendant of GISS ModelE2.1, the flagship GCM of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) used in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. ROCKE-3D is a continuous effort to expand the capabilities of GISS ModelE to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including different atmospheric planet sizes, gravities, pressures, rotation rates, more diverse chemistries and atmospheric compositions, diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. We present in this release many more supported configurations which can serve as starting points to simulate terrestrial planets of interest. Two different radiation schemes are supported, the GISS radiation, valid for Earth-like planets, and SOCRATES, which is more generalized but requires more CPU resources. In addition, three different atmospheric compositions are supported, three ocean configurations (prescribed, q-flux, and dynamic), and two resolutions: the medium resolution (4 x 5 degrees in latitude x longitude) used in ROCKE-3D 1.0, and the fine resolution, which has double the resolution in the atmosphere and 4 times the resolution in the ocean. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.

ROCKE-3D↗

Martian B Storm Genesis and Evolution: Initial Analysis of Thermal Datasets.

Introduction: Dust lifting on Mars likely occurs primarily as a result of the exchange of momentum between the atmosphere and the surface via saltation. During saltation, sand-sized particles are mobilized but do not enter into suspension. When these larger particles fall back to the surface, kinetic energy is transferred to smaller dust particles which are then lofted into suspension in the atmosphere. Depending on the altitude to which dust is lofted, it can have a significant effect on atmospheric temperatures. As a strong absorber and emitter in the infrared, dust can influence atmospheric heating and modify the global circulation and weather on Mars [1,2]. Although dust is present in Mars’ atmosphere throughout the year, the atmosphere is generally dustier during the second half of the year when Mars is near perihelion. Observations reveal that episodic global-scale dust storms and fairly regular regional-scale dust storms are superimposed on a well-defined and highly repeatable seasonal cycle of dust opacity and associated mid-level atmospheric temperature responses. Kass et al. (2016) used 50 Pa temperature observations from MRO/MCS to identify three highly repeatable time periods during which regional dust storms occur, and designated them the “A”, “B” and “C” storms. While “A” and “C” storms have been studied a fair amount to-date, “B” storms have not yet been investigated in detail. This study explores the generation and evolution of the annually recurring regional dust storm known as the “B” storm, which was identified and categorized by Kass et al. (2016) based on 25 km (50 Pa) temperature observations. The B storm is a southern-hemisphere (SH) phenomenon that originates at the cap edge just after perihelion and which reaches peak intensity during the SH summer solstice, Ls 270. It may originate from the cap edge storms that spawn near the edge of the seasonal CO2 cap during retreat, but the mechanisms for B storm genesis have yet to be determined definitively [1]. Methods: We will use observational data sets and a global climate model (GCM) to investigate “B” regional storms. The data analysis component will include the analysis of imagery from MGS/MOC and MRO/MARCI, and spectroscopic data sets of dust and temperatures from MGS/TES and MRO/MCS with the goal of fully characterizing the behavior of these storms. Both MGS and TES provide data well-suited for temperature analysis at 25 km. MCS measures atmospheric temperature, dust extinction, and water ice extinction at 5 km intervals from the surface to about 80 km. TES measured atmospheric temperatures, column dust and water ice opacities, and column water vapor abundances. Measurements made by TES extended from the surface to about 40 km [1]. At the 50 Pa (25 km) level, local dust events usually confined to shallower depths are effectively filtered out of the analysis leaving the regional dust events identifiable by their temperature signatures [1]. Our preliminary analysis makes use of the fact that the brightness temperature at 15 microns (T15 temperature) is a close approximation to observed temperature at 25 km. We first reproduce the zonal mean 50 Pa level temperature plots for MY 29-32 to establish a baseline for our procedures moving forward [1]. Expanding on Kass et al. (2016), we include recent MCS data from MY 33 and 34 as well. Preliminary Analysis: The daytime (3PM) T15 temperatures in Figure 1 indicate: in MY 29, a strong A storm at Ls 240, a B storm at high southern latitudes just after Ls 270, and a C storm at Ls 320; in MY 30, a B storm at Ls 270; in MY 31 & MY 32, a B storm just before Ls 270; in MY 33, a B storm at Ls 270; and in MY 34, a strong A storm in the northern hemisphere at Ls 210, and a B storm around Ls 270 although there is a data gap. For the B storms, each is indicative of lofted dust and resultant warming. The daytime temperature structure illustrates that the B storm occurs annually around Ls 270 and is confined to high southern latitudes. It reaches its peak intensity around SH summer solstice, Ls 270, consistently for all six MY assessed. Since direct solar heating is absent overnight, the nighttime T15 temperatures (Figure 2) are often useful for differentiating the heat signature of direct solar heating from the dynamical response to that heating. However, in the southern polar latitudes at perihelion the sun does not set and direct solar heating remains present throughout the night. Importantly for our study, dust lofted in the B storm experiences this direct heating day and night for the entirety of its lifetime. The B storm expands as far north as -60 latitude and decays in latitudinal extent more gradually than it grows. This feature is less obvious in the nighttime (3AM) T15 temperatures (Figure 2). The temperature signal is stronger at night for MY 30-33. The warm pool is larger in area relative to the background at night in these four cases. This more uniform warming masks the “tail” feature somewhat, such that it is barely noticeable during these years. Unfortunately, gaps in MCS data in MY 29 and 34 prevent confirmation of the tail feature during those years, however, the B storm temperature signature follows a very different pattern than that described for MY 30-33. MY 29 and 34 appear to show smaller centers of warming at night and larger centers of warming during the day. This is in opposition to that previously described for MY 30-33. Conclusions and Future Work: We will continue investigating the heat signatures of B storms by looking at the total column heating as recorded by TES. We will also look at lower altitudes for patterns that may describe the relationship between B storms and the cap edge storms that develop while the seasonal cap is retreating. In the future, we will use GCM simulations to determine the atmospheric and thermo-dynamic conditions associated with these storms.

Courtney Marylou Batterson↗

Detectability Simulations of a Near-infrared Surface Biosignature on Proxima Centauri b with Future Space Observatories

Telescope missions are currently being designed that will make direct imaging of habitable exoplanets possible in the near future, and studies are needed to quantify the detectability of biosignature features in the planet's reflectance spectrum. We simulated the detectability of a near-infrared-absorbing surface biosignature feature with simulated observations of the nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b. We modeled a biosignature spectral feature with a reflectance spectrum based on an anoxygenic photosynthetic bacterial species that has strong absorption at 1 μm, which could make it well suited for life on an M-dwarf-hosted planet. We modeled the distribution of this organism across the planet's surface based on climate states from a 3D general circulation model (GCM) that were Archean- and Proterozoic-like exo-Earth analogs. We included the GCM states' prognostically simulated water clouds and added organic haze into the Archean-like atmospheres. We simulated observations of these Proxima Centauri b scenarios with the LUVOIR-A and B telescope concepts, with LUVOIR-B serving as a proxy to the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory. We calculated the integration times necessary to detect the biosignature and found that it would be detectable on Proxima Centauri b if the organism is moderately abundant (greater than a 1%–4% global surface area coverage), as long as the atmosphere is transmitting in the wavelength range under consideration. Small amounts of methane, clouds, and haze do not greatly impede detectability. We found preliminary evidence that such a biosignature would be detectable on exoplanets within 15 pc, but further investigations are needed to corroborate this.

Exoplanet astronomy↗

The Closure of the Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Budget using Level-Coordinate Model Fields

Entrainment is an important element of the mixed layer mass, heat, and temperature budgets. Conventional procedures to estimate entrainment heat advection often do not permit the closure of heat and temperature budgets because of inaccuracies in its formulation. In this study a rigorous approach to evaluate the effect of entrainment using the output of a general circulation model (GCM) that does not have an explicit prognostic mixed layer model is described. The integral elements of the evaluation are 1) the rigorous estimates of the temperature difference between mixed layer water and entrained water at each horizontal grid point, 2) the formulation of the temperature difference such that the budget closes over a volume greater than one horizontal grid point, and 3) the apparent warming of the mixed layer during the mixed layer shoaling to account for the weak vertical temperature gradient within the mixed layer. This evaluation of entrainment heat advection is compared with the estimates by other commonly used ad hoc formulations by applying them in three regions: the north-central Pacific, the Kuroshio Extension, and the Nino-3 areas in the tropical Pacific. In all three areas the imbalance in the mixed layer temperature budget by the ad hoc estimates is significant, reaching a maximum of about 4 K yr(exp -1).

temperature gradient↗