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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of nitrogen management in cultivation on the stability and microbial community of post-harvest Monoraphidium sp. algae biomass

Seasonal variation in algae biomass productivity is a significant obstacle to the economical production of fuels and chemicals from algae biomass. Long-term storage is necessary to guarantee a constant supply to a conversion facility and harvested microalgae biomass (20% solids) is subject to degradation immediately upon harvesting as a result of aerobic instability. Ensiling has been successfully used to preserve microalgal biomass, but biomass attributes that contribute to successful storage are poorly understood. Storage studies of Monoraphidium sp. biomass indicate a strong correlation between nitrogen management in algae cultivation and stability of post-harvest algae biomass in 30 days of anaerobic storage. Algae cultivated with periodic nitrogen addition stored poorly (> 20% loss, dry basis), while algae biomass from cultures that were allowed to continue growing after nitrogen depletion was more stable in storage (8% loss, dry basis). A follow-up study aimed at exploring the relationship between nitrogen management in cultivation and stability of post-harvest algae biomass stored Monoraphidium biomass cultivated in nitrogen deplete and nitrogen replete conditions, as well as with blends of each in varying ratios. Monoraphidium biomass from nitrogen replete cultivations experienced the largest degradation (24%, dry basis), while nitrogen deplete biomass experienced the least (10%, dry basis). Dry matter loss experienced during storage of blends was positively correlated with the amount of nitrogen replete biomass that a blend contained. Further, the composition of the post-storage algae microbial community was also strongly affected by cultivation conditions, with Clostridia species being more prevalent in stored biomass obtained from nitrogen replete cultivations. Nitrogen management has long been known to influence algae biomass productivity and biochemical composition; here, we demonstrate that it also strongly influences the stability of post-harvest algae biomass in anaerobic storage.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Designing a GIS-based supply chain for producing carinata-based sustainable aviation fuel in Georgia, USA

Carinata is a potential crop for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in the southern USA. However, as a novel crop, the cost-effectiveness and environmental feasibility of carinata feedstock are unknown, and there are questions about the optimal supply chain configuration for carinata-based SAF production. This study aims to design a supply chain model for carinata-based SAF production by optimizing the location of farms and facilities (e.g. storage units, crushing mills, biorefineries) for a minimum transportation cost under a set of supply and demand conditions. An integrated mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model was combined with geographical information system (GIS) analysis to design a spatially explicit supply chain configuration. The GIS-based network analysis considered all of the counties in Georgia to set the candidate locations of carinata farms and facilities, and determined minimum cost and emission routes between those counties and the airport using existing transportation networks and modes (e.g. road, rail and pipeline). The MILP model determined the final selection of the farms and the number of facilities and their locations over those minimum-cost routes. With this supply chain configuration, the minimum price of SAF was $\$$0.92 L –1 , which is $\$$0.44 higher than conventional aviation fuel (CAF). The associated carbon intensity of SAF was estimated at 940.7 g CO 2 e L –1 , a reduction of 66% relative to the carbon intensity of equivalent CAF. The study found that a carbon tax (or subsidy) of $\$$230.48 t CO 2 e –1 would be needed to overcome the cost differential with CAF and promote carinata-based SAF in Georgia.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Green pretreatment strategies for enhanced microbial lipid fermentation and synergistic high-quality lignin recovery for next-generation integrated biorefineries

Miscanthus × giganteus (Mxg) is a warm-season perennial grass being commercialized as a biomass feedstock for temperate farms. Three process strategies were compared for converting Mxg into single-cell oil and extracted lignin intermediates, as hydrothermal (HT) processing and two natural deep eutectic solvents (NADES), ChCl:LA (choline chloride:lactic acid) and ChCl:Gly (choline chloride:glycerol). Pretreatments were performed at 10% and 50% solids loading at 140 °C, 2 h; HT: 190 °C, 10 min. Enzymatic hydrolysates, generated at 10% solids using washed and unwashed biomass, were evaluated for microbial lipid production. Maximum glucose conversions from washed biomass reached 83.5% (ChCl:LA), 52.7% (ChCl:Gly), and 74.0% (HT). Remarkably, NADES-derived hydrolysates effectively replaced refined sugars for the cultivation of the oleaginous yeast Rhodotorula toruloides, achieving ∼51% higher biomass (OD 90.7) and lipid titers of 19.36 g/L within 45 h using a two-stage fermentation strategy. Lipid contents ranged from 34.5–44.5% dry weight, demonstrating reduced reliance on purified sugars. Beyond carbohydrate valorization, ChCl:LA pretreatment enabled high-purity lignin recovery (>89%) in a lignin-first strategy. Structural analyses (2D-HSQC and ³¹P NMR) showed syringyl (78.15%), guaiacyl (15.15%), and p-hydroxyphenyl (6.41%) units, with higher phenolic hydroxyl content (0.91 mmol/g) and a lower S/G ratio (0.19) than HT lignin (0.87 mmol/g, S/G 0.22). These attributes favor downstream lignin depolymerization into low-molecular-weight aromatics. Overall, NADES pretreatment simultaneously enhances microbial lipid yields and recovers high-quality lignin, advancing the economic feasibility of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from bioenergy crops within an integrated biorefinery framework.

2D HSQC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Renewable Ammonia as An Energy Fuel for Ocean Exploration and Transportation

Renewable power generated from wave energy has faced technological and cost barriers to entry into utility-scale electricity markets. As an alternative, the production of chemical fuels, such as ammonia (NH3) which has high energy density (11.5 MJ/L) and facile storage properties, may open wave energy to new markets including ocean exploration and transportation. The electrochemical method has been studied to synthesize NH3 from air and water at ambient conditions. Based on some recent work on the electrochemical synthesis of NH3, it is possible to achieve an overall conversion efficiency of 10% from wave energy to NH3 through an electrochemical reaction between air and water. If all the recoverable wave energy in the United States (1170 TWh/yr) is used to produce renewable NH3 fuel replacing hydrocarbon fuels, this can help reduce over 300 million tons of CO2 emission every year. Several potential application scenarios at sea have been proposed for renewable NH3 fuel including production and storage for marine shipping and seasonal energy storage for Arctic exploration. Liquefied NH3 has much higher energy density, both gravimetric and volumetric, than a variety of batteries but the energy efficiency of NH3 is lower than modern batteries such as Li-ion. The Levelized cost of storing NH3 prepared using electric energy is less than $0.2/kWh and the storage time can exceed 10,000 hours which indicates that NH3 can be a promising energy storage solution to make use of abundant wave energy. However, there are some safety and environmental concerns involved in the usage of NH3 at sea. The challenges in the electrochemical catalyst for the NH3 synthesis and how molecular simulation may help to screen electrocatalyst with high efficiency and selectivity were also briefly discussed.

Liu, Jian↗
DOE OSTI2024

Membrane Separations in Biomass Processing

The development of integrated biorefineries and the greater utilization of biomass resources to reduce dependence on fossil fuel-derived products require research emphasis not just on conversion strategies but also on improving separations associated with biorefining. A significant roadblock towards developing biorefineries is the lack of effective separation techniques evidenced by the relative deficiency of literature in this area. Additionally, high conversion yields may only be realized if effective separations generate feedstock of sufficient purity – this makes research into biomass conversion strategies all the more critical. In this review, the challenges associated with biomass separations are discussed, followed by an overview of the most appropriate separation strategies for processing biomass. One of the unit operations most appealing for biorefining, membrane separations (MS), is then considered along with a review of the recent literature utilizing this technique in biomass processing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Standard Analytical Methods for Pyrolysis Bio-Oils

There has been significant recent interest in the production of renewable fuels and chemicals from biomass and waste feedstocks. Pyrolysis pathways produce a liquid bio-oil product, which must be processed further, or upgraded, to yield fuel or chemical products. Bio-oils are very complex and often unstable samples, and research and development on upgrading processes needs reliable analytical information. In particular, chemical characterization techniques are needed to quantify both functional groups and individual compounds present in bio-oils. Reliable analytics are also needed to enable the bioenergy industry, as industrial facilities often have different analytical needs and capabilities than research facilities. In this presentation, we will discuss the development of a suite of standard analytical methods for pyrolysis bio-oils. Analytical methods to be discussed include: Determination of Carbon, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, and Oxygen in bio-oils; Accelerated Aging of Fast Pyrolysis Bio-oil using Carbonyl Titration; Determination of Water Content in Bio-oils by Volumetric Karl Fischer Titration; Determination of Carbon Functional Groups; Elemental Analysis of Bio-oils by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-OES) - Na, K, Mg, Ca, S, P, and Fe; Determination of Phenolic Groups in Bio-oils using Revised Folin-Ciocalteu Methods: Single Cuvette and Plate Reader; Corrosivity of Bio-oils: Screening Test using Metal Leaching; Determination of Biogenic Content by 14C Measurement using Liquid Scintillation Counter. These new analytical methods are publicly available as Laboratory Analytical Procedures (https://www.nrel.gov/bioenergy/bio-oil-analysis.html), along with previously developed standard methods: GC-MS, Acid Titration, Carbonyl Titration, and 31P NMR. Additionally, the development of diffusion ordered NMR for characterization of bio-oil molecular weight will be discussed. Collectively, this suite of analytical methods represents the most comprehensive set of standard methods available for pyrolysis bio-oils. These standard methods are commonly used by the bioenergy community, and provide reliable information that enables research, scaleup, and industrial processing of biomass to produce renewable fuels and chemicals.

analytical↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable aviation fuels from biomass and biowaste via bio- and chemo-catalytic conversion: Catalysis, process challenges, and opportunities

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from biomass and biowaste streams is an attractive option for decarbonizing the aviation sector, one of the most-difficult-to-electrify transportation sectors. Despite ongoing commercialization efforts using ASTM-certified pathways (e.g., lipid conversion, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis), production capacities are still inadequate due to limited feedstock supply and high production costs. New conversion technologies that utilize lignocellulosic feedstocks are needed to meet these challenges and satisfy the rapidly growing market. Combining bio- and chemo-catalytic approaches can leverage advantages from both methods, i.e., high product selectivity via biological conversion, and the capability to build C-C chains more efficiently via chemical catalysis. Herein, conversion routes, catalysis, and processes for such pathways are discussed, while key challenges and meaningful R&D opportunities are identified to guide future research activities in the space. Bio and chemo-catalytic conversion primarily utilize the carbohydrate fraction of lignocellulose, leaving lignin as a waste product. This makes lignin conversion to SAF critical in order to utilize whole biomass, thereby lowering overall production costs while maximizing carbon efficiencies. Thus, lignin valorization strategies are also reviewed herein with vital research areas identified, such as facile lignin depolymerization approaches, highly integrated conversion systems, novel process configurations, and catalysts for the selective cleavage of aryl C–O bonds. The potential efficiency improvements available via integrated conversion steps, such as combined biological and chemo-catalytic routes, along with the use of different parallel pathways, are identified as key to producing all components of a cost-effective, 100% SAF.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution_and_engineering_of_pathways_for_aromatic_O-demethylation_in_Pseudomonas_putida_KT2440

Biological conversion of lignin from biomass offers a promising strategy for sustainable production of fuels and chemicals. However,aromatic compoundsderived from lignin commonly contain methoxy groups, andO-demethylation of these substrates is often a rate-limiting reaction that influences catabolic efficiency. Severalenzymefamilies catalyze aromaticO-demethylation, but they are rarely comparedin vivoto determine an optimal biocatalytic strategy. Here, two pathways for aromaticO-demethylation were compared inPseudomonas putidaKT2440. The native Rieske non-heme ironmonooxygenase(VanAB) and, separately, a heterologous tetrahydrofolate-dependentdemethylase(LigM) were constitutively expressed inP. putida, and the strains were optimized via adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) withvanillateas a model substrate. All evolved strains displayed improved growth phenotypes, with the evolved strains harboring the native VanAB pathway exhibiting growth rates ∼1.8x faster than those harboring the heterologous LigM pathway.Enzyme kineticsandtranscriptomicsstudies investigated the contribution of selected mutations toward enhanced utilization of vanillate. The VanAB-overexpressing strains contained the most impactful mutations, including those in VanB, thereductasefor vanillateO-demethylase, PP_3494, a global regulator of vanillate catabolism, andfghA, involved in formaldehydedetoxification. These three mutations were combined into a single strain, which exhibited approximately 5x faster vanillate consumption than the wild-type strain in the first 8 h of cultivation. Overall, this study illuminates the details of vanillate catabolism in the context of two distinct enzymatic mechanisms,yielding a platform strain for efficientO-demethylation of lignin-related aromatic compounds to value-added products. This DOI contains supplementary material associated with the published manuscript.

CBI↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment for the catalytic hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking of polyethylene

Catalytic hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking are promising technologies for the conversion of polyolefin waste into hydrocarbons. Here, to explore the economic and environmental viability of these approaches, we conducted techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment of polyethylene hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking processes that produce fuel-range products or olefins, respectively. Relative to primary production, the minimum selling price (MSP) of alkanes for linear-chain naphtha was estimated to be 1.8-fold higher, whereas branched-chain naphtha and propylene were shown to be cost competitive. Environmental impacts showed similar trends across scenarios, with propylene production by hydrocracking exhibiting greenhouse gas emissions comparable with conventional propylene due to relatively low hydrogen demand and high yield. Together, these results suggest that innovations in catalysis and reaction engineering will be required to make viable products that are scale matched with today's plastics, such as light olefins for closed-loop recycling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decontamination of Mixed Paper and Plastic Municipal Solid Waste Increases Low and High Temperature Conversion Yields

With the implementation of China’s Green Fence Policy and the following National Sword Policy, there is a need to divert previously accepted waste materials away from the landfill. Mixed plastic and paper wastes that are too contaminated to be economically recycled can be used for conversion into fuels and products. The effect of common contaminants present in waste streams must be determined to make municipal solid waste (MSW) a viable alternative to agricultural feedstocks for conversion. In this study, MSW was sourced from a dual stream materials recovery facility (MRF) in Emmet County, Michigan and characterized via mass balance. The most common contaminants in mixed paper and plastic were quantified and targeted for decontamination when mixed paper was explored for low temperature conversion pathways and plastics for high temperature conversion pathways. Ink, stickies, and plastic contamination were sorted out of the mixed paper stream and did not have an impact on sugar yields during enzymatic hydrolysis (EH). Although no improvement in yield was found, it was noted that copy paper within the mixed paper stream had an elevated pH and higher concentration of fermentation inhibitors, suggesting that intrinsic properties of some paper types may not be ideal for EH and fermentation conversion. Dilute alkaline pretreatment and mechanical refining of mixed paper increased the EH yield of mixed paper, suggesting this previously established process could be used as a decontamination method. “Dirt” and particulates were washed from mixed plastic using either an aqueous detergent or a non-aqueous chemical washing method. Liquid oil yields were increased during microwave assisted fast pyrolysis. All decontamination techniques met the cost target of less than $30/dry ton with plastic decontamination ranging from $18.16 to $24.81/dry ton. Because dilute alkaline pre-treatment and mechanical refining is considered part of the conversion process, the decontamination cost during feedstock preprocessing was considered $0/dry ton.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bioinspired and biomolecular catalysts for energy conversion and storage

Metalloenzymes are remarkable for facilitating challenging redox transformations with high efficiency and selectivity. In the area of alternative energy, scientists aim to capture these properties in bioinspired and engineered biomolecular catalysts for the efficient and fast production of fuels from low-energy feedstocks such as water and carbon dioxide. In this short review, efforts to mimic biological catalysts for proton reduction and carbon dioxide reduction are highlighted. Two important recurring themes are the importance of the microenvironment of the catalyst active site and the key role of proton delivery to the active site in achieving desired reactivity. As a result, perspectives on ongoing and future challenges are also provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of A‐Site Composition on the Cation Dissolution‐Mediated Surface Restructuring of Layered Nickelate Oxide Electrocatalysts During Alkaline Oxygen Evolution Reaction

The oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is a key anodic counter‐reaction for electrochemical production of fuels and chemicals. It is hindered by sluggish four‐electron transfer kinetics requiring highly oxidative operating potentials to achieve commercially relevant rates. NiFeO x H y electrocatalysts are among the most promising for OER in alkaline electrolytes. The Ni(OH) 2 /NiOOH redox couple has been reported as the active phase in Ni‐based electrocatalysts; however, its activity is often hindered by deactivation arising from the formation of OER‐inactive insulating species. Limited strategies exist for mitigating this deactivation. This study aims to address this by interrogating the evolution of OER active sites as a function of precatalyst composition and structural properties using a series of layered, crystalline Ni‐based Ruddlesden–Popper (RP) oxides (A 2 NiO 4+δ ). In situ evolution of the active NiO x H y surface is probed through Ni‐site OER turnover frequency analysis, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy coupled with scanning transmission electron microscopy. We show that the stability of layered nickelate oxide electrocatalysts is governed by the dynamic competition between cation dissolution and Ni‐site reversibility, which can be tuned through the A‐site composition of RP oxides. These findings yield insights toward engineering OER oxide precatalysts that optimize the stability of in situ‐generated OER active phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atomically Dispersed Single Ni Site Catalysts for Nitrogen Reduction toward Electrochemical Ammonia Synthesis Using N 2 and H 2 O

Ammonia (NH 3 ) electrosynthesis gains significant attention as NH 3 is essentially important for fertilizer production and fuel utilization. However, electrochemical nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR) remains a great challenge because of low activity and poor selectivity. Herein, a new class of atomically dispersed Ni site electrocatalyst is reported, which exhibits the optimal NH 3 yield of 115 µg cm -2 h -1 at –0.8 V versus reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE) under neutral conditions. High faradic efficiency of 21 ± 1.9% is achieved at -0.2 V versus RHE under alkaline conditions, although the ammonia yield is lower. The Ni sites are stabilized with nitrogen, which is verified by advanced X-ray absorption spectroscopy and electron microscopy. Density functional theory calculations provide insightful understanding on the possible structure of active sites, relevant reaction pathways, and confirm that the Ni-N 3 sites are responsible for the experimentally observed activity and selectivity. Extensive controls strongly suggest that the atomically dispersed NiN 3 site-rich catalyst provides more intrinsically active sites than those in N-doped carbon, instead of possible environmental contamination. Overall, this work further indicates that single-metal site catalysts with optimal nitrogen coordination is very promising for NRR and indeed improves the scaling relationship of transition metals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unlocking nature’s biosynthetic potential by directed genome evolution

Microorganisms have been increasingly explored as microbial cell factories for production of fuels, chemicals, drugs, and materials. Among the various metabolic engineering strategies, directed genome evolution has emerged as one of the most powerful tools to unlock the full biosynthetic potential of microorganisms. Furthermore we summarize the directed genome evolution strategies that have been developed in recent years, including adaptive laboratory evolution and various targeted genome-scale engineering strategies, and discuss their applications in basic and applied biological research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward sustainable, cell-free biomanufacturing

Industrial biotechnology is an attractive approach to address the need for low-cost fuels and products from sustainable resources. Unfortunately, cells impose inherent limitations on the effective synthesis and release of target products. One key constraint is that cellular survival objectives often work against the production objectives of biochemical engineers. Additionally, industrial strains release CO2 and struggle to utilize sustainable, potentially profitable feedstocks. Cell-free biotechnology, which uses biological machinery harvested from cells, can address these challenges with advantages including: (i) shorter development times, (ii) higher volumetric production rates, and (iii) tolerance to otherwise toxic molecules. In this review, we highlight recent advances in cell-free technologies toward the production of non-protein products beyond lab-scale demonstrations and describe guiding principles for designing cell-free systems. Specifically, we discuss carbon and energy sources, reaction homeostasis, and scale-up. Expanding the scope of cell-free biomanufacturing practice could enable innovative approaches for the industrial production of green chemicals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upstream considerations for gas fermentation processes

Gas fermentation enables the production of fuels, chemicals, and foods from gaseous carbon sources and could serve as a technology for valorizing carbon that may otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere. In this review, we focus on upstream feedstock considerations: the supply of carbon and the supply of electrical power. Electrical power serves a dual role, providing both process energy and biochemical redox potential (via hydrogen or reduced intermediates). We define gas fermentation as bioprocesses involving gaseous feedstocks metabolized by microbes, distinct from microbial electrosynthesis. Trends in CO 2 point sources and low-carbon electricity systems are analyzed, highlighting opportunities and challenges for future deployment. This review synthesizes current knowledge and identifies key R&D priorities for process integration at industrial scale.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗