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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.

APSIM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast neutron background characterization of the future Ricochet experiment at the ILL research nuclear reactor

Abstract The future Ricochet experiment aims at searching for new physics in the electroweak sector by providing a high precision measurement of the Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CENNS) process down to the sub-100 eV nuclear recoil energy range. The experiment will deploy a kg-scale low-energy-threshold detector array combining Ge and Zn target crystals 8.8 m away from the 58 MW research nuclear reactor core of the Institut Laue Langevin (ILL) in Grenoble, France. Currently, the Ricochet Collaboration is characterizing the backgrounds at its future experimental site in order to optimize the experiment’s shielding design. The most threatening background component, which cannot be actively rejected by particle identification, consists of keV-scale neutron-induced nuclear recoils. These initial fast neutrons are generated by the reactor core and surrounding experiments (reactogenics), and by the cosmic rays producing primary neutrons and muon-induced neutrons in the surrounding materials. In this paper, we present the Ricochet neutron background characterization using $$^3$$ 3 He proportional counters which exhibit a high sensitivity to thermal, epithermal and fast neutrons. We compare these measurements to the Ricochet Geant4 simulations to validate our reactogenic and cosmogenic neutron background estimations. Eventually, we present our estimated neutron background for the future Ricochet experiment and the resulting CENNS detection significance. Our results show that depending on the effectiveness of the muon veto, we expect a total nuclear recoil background rate between 44 ± 3 and 9 ± 2 events/day/kg in the CENNS region of interest, i.e. between 50 eV and 1 keV. We therefore found that the Ricochet experiment should reach a statistical significance of 4.6 to 13.6 $$\sigma $$ σ for the detection of CENNS after one reactor cycle, when only the limiting neutron background is considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Our Renewable Energy Future: The Remarkable Story of How Renewable Energy Will Become the Basis for Our Lives

Our Renewable Energy Future delves into the clean energy technology evolution and where our energy system is going. While the book's foundation is technology innovation, it brings a unique perspective that technology alone is not what has brought about the explosive growth of renewable energy and offers fresh insights into how technology, economics, social dynamics, policy, and geopolitics are forces affecting our energy future. This book is a culmination of Dr Arent's lifelong passion for energy, sustainable development, and renewable energy technology. It covers the journey of evolving technology, economics, political economy and geopolitics of clean energy over the last 40 years and provides insights for the coming decades. From a technology perspective, the book traces the arc of recent innovations and synthesizes innovations across multiple interacting perspectives into a description of Our Renewable Energy Future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining Globally Inhomogeneous Future Changes in Monsoons Using Simple Moist Energy Diagnostics

Here, this study examines the annual cycle of monsoon precipitation simulated by models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), then uses moist energy diagnostics to explain globally inhomogeneous projected future changes. Rainy season characteristics are quantified using a consistent method across the globe. Model bias is shown to include rainy season onsets tens of days later than observed in some monsoon regions (India, Australia, and North America) and overly large summer precipitation in others (North America, South America, and southern Africa). Projected next-century changes include rainy season lengthening in the two largest Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Asia and central Sahel) and shortening in the two largest Southern Hemisphere regions (South America and southern Africa). Changes in the North American and Australian monsoons are less coherent across models. To understand these changes, relative moist static energy (MSE) is defined as the difference between local and tropical-mean surface air MSE. Future changes in relative MSE in each region correlate well with onset and demise date changes. Furthermore, Southern Hemisphere regions projected to undergo rainy season shortening are spanned by an increasing equator-to-pole MSE gradient, suggesting their rainfall will be increasingly inhibited by fluxes of dry extratropical air; Northern Hemisphere regions with projected lengthening of rainy seasons undergo little change in equator-to-pole MSE gradient. Thus, although model biases raise questions as to the reliability of some projections, these results suggest that globally inhomogeneous future changes in monsoon timing may be understood through simple measures of surface air MSE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonally Dependent Future Changes in the U.S. Midwest Hydroclimate and Extremes

This study investigates the responses of the hydroclimate and extremes in the U.S. Midwest to global warming, based on ensemble projections of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the multimodel initial-condition large-ensemble simulations. The precipitation response features a seasonally dependent change with increased precipitation in April–May but reduced precipitation in July–August. In this work, the late-spring wetting is attributed to the enhanced low-level moisture-transporting southerlies, which are induced by regional sea level pressure anomalies linked to the poleward shift of the North American westerly jet (NAWJ). The late-summer drying is attributed to the weakened storm track, which is also linked to the poleward NAWJ shift. The seasonally dependent future changes of the Midwest precipitation are analogous to its climatological seasonal progression, which increases over late spring as the NAWJ approaches the Midwest and decreases over late summer as the NAWJ migrates away. In response to the mean precipitation changes, extremely wet late springs (April–May precipitation above the 99th percentile of the historical period) and extremely dry late summers (below the 1st percentile) will occur much more frequently, implying increased late-spring floods and late-summer droughts. Future warming in the Midwest is amplified in late summer due to the reduced precipitation. With amplified background warming and increased occurrence, future late-summer droughts will be more devastating. Our results highlight that, under a time-invariant poleward jet shift, opposite precipitation changes arise before and after the peak rainy month, leading to substantial increases in the subseasonal extremes. The severity of such climate impacts is obscured in projections of the rainy-season mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗
DOE OSTI2015

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

Agriculture yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally (via international commodity markets). How important to U.S. agriculture are domestic changes due to climate compared to those occurring externally? Here we show that potential direct impacts to United States agriculture have financial impacts on U.S. producers that are roughly similar in magnitude but opposite in sign to impacts on U.S. producers due to changes in other parts of the world. This finding is robust across application of a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts applied to a multi-sector global integrated assessment model. Therefore, when examining country-specific impacts, it is necessary to model both the domestic and international impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hydrogen Technologies and Systems Center is Helping to Facilitate the Transition to a New Energy Future

The Hydrogen Technologies and Systems Center (HTSC) at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) uses a systems engineering and integration approach to hydrogen research and development to help the United States make the transition to a new energy future - a future built on diverse and abundant domestic renewable resources and integrated hydrogen systems.Research focuses on renewable hydrogen production, delivery, and storage; fuel cells and fuel cell manufacturing; technology validation; safety, codes, and standards; analysis; education; and market transformation. Hydrogen can be used in fuel cells to power vehicles and to provide electricity and heat for homes and offices. This flexibility, combined with our increasing demand for energy, opensthe door for hydrogen power systems. HTSC collaborates with DOE, other government agencies, industry, communities, universities, national laboratories, and other stakeholders to promote a clean and secure energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2011

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Planning for a Sustainable Future of the Cincinnati Union Terminal

The Cincinnati Museum Center invited a number of local stakeholders, political leaders, nationally and internationally recognized design professionals and the Design Team, that has been engaged to help shape the future of this remarkable resource, to work together in a Workshop that would begin to shape a truly sustainable future for both the Museum and its home, the Union Terminal, one of the most significant buildings in America. This report summarizes and highlights the discussions that took place during the Workshop and presents recommendations for shaping a direction and a framework for the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

Geochemistry, extent, signatures, and chronology of basaltic and young silicic pyroclastic eruptions: Refining existing data to support a future volcanic hazards assessment of LANL

Volcanic activities represent a primary natural phenomena hazards element within DOE regulatory drivers. Los Alamos National Laboratory lies within the Jemez Mountains volcanic field, which has erupted both small and large volumes of volcanic materials during the Quaternary (the last 2.6 million years, including as recently as ~40,000 years ago), and is bounded on the east by the Cerros del Rio volcanic field, which has also erupted during the Quaternary. Current and future Los Alamos National Laboratory facility performance goals may be affected by future volcanic eruptions of the same type observed during the Quaternary. This report addresses key questions to more completely define the extent, magnitude, composition, and timing of recent silicic and basaltic eruptions, and their associated tephras, sourced from volcanic centers within 20 km of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The stratigraphic and chronologic record of basaltic and dacitic lavas that underlie the Pajarito Plateau are summarized herein. Additionally, the field, laboratory, and spatial analyses undertaken to further refine the age and extent of the El Cajete Pyroclastic Beds are described. The data presented will support and refine future efforts towards development of a LANL probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance activity. This will allow (i) a direct comparison of future TC activity that could be expected for an active or inactive season in an altered climate regime, and (ii) a measure of the level of uncertainty and variability in TC activity resulting from different carbon emission scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Summary of International Waste Management Programs (LLNL Input to SNL L3 MS: System-Wide Integration and Site Selection Concepts for Future Disposition Options for HLW)

The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) within the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) program has been tasked with investigating the disposal of the nation’s spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW) for a range of potential waste forms and geologic environments. This Lessons Learned task is part of a multi-laboratory effort, with this LLNL report providing input to a Level 3 SNL milestone (System-Wide Integration and Site Selection Concepts for Future Disposition Options for HLW). The work package number is: FTLL11UF0328; the work package title is: Technical Bases / Lessons Learned; the milestone number is: M41UF032802; and the milestone title is: “LLNL Input to SNL L3 MS: System-Wide Integration and Site Selection Concepts for Future Disposition Options for HLW”. The system-wide integration effort will integrate all aspects of waste management and disposal, integrating the waste generators, interim storage, transportation, and ultimate disposal at a repository site. The review of international experience in these areas is required to support future studies that address all of these components in an integrated manner. Note that this report is a snapshot of nuclear power infrastructure and international waste management programs that is current as of August 2011, with one notable exception. No attempt has been made to discuss the currently evolving world-wide response to the tragic consequences of the earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan on March 11, 2011, leaving more than 15,000 people dead and more than 8,000 people missing, and severely damaging the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex. Continuing efforts in FY 2012 will update the data, and summarize it in an Excel spreadsheet for easy comparison and assist in the knowledge management of the study cases.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Software Based Barriers To Integration Of Renewables To The Future Distribution Grid

The future distribution grid has complex analysis needs, which may not be met with the existing processes and tools. In addition there is a growing number of measured and grid model data sources becoming available. For these sources to be useful they must be accurate, and interpreted correctly. Data accuracy is a key barrier to the growth of the future distribution grid. A key goal for California, and the United States, is increasing the renewable penetration on the distribution grid. To increase this penetration measured and modeled representations of generation must be accurate and validated, giving distribution planners and operators confidence in their performance. This study will review the current state of these software and modeling barriers and opportunities for the future distribution grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

REPORT OF RESEARCH ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND FUTURE GOALS HIGH ENERGY PHYSICS

Caltech High Energy Physics (HEP) has a broad program in both experimental and theoretical physics. We are known for our creativity and leadership. The future is uncertain and we strive to be involved in all the major areas of experimental and theoretical HEP physics so no matter where the important discoveries occur we are well positioned to play an important role. An outstanding group of postdoctoral scholars, graduate students, staff scientists, and technical and administrative personnel support our efforts in experimental and theoretical physics. The PI’s on this grant are involved in the following program of experimental and theoretical activities: I) EXPERIMENTAL PHYSICS Our CMS group, led by Harvey Newman and Maria Spiropulu, has played a key role in the discovery and interpretation of the Higgs boson and in searches for new physics. They have important hardware responsibilities in both ECAL and HCAL and are also involved in the upgrades needed for the High Luminosity LHC. Newman's group also develops and operates Grid-based computing, networking, and collaborative systems for CMS and the US HEP community. The charged lepton (Mu2e) and quark BaBar flavor physics group is led by David Hitlin and Frank Porter. On Mu2e they have been instrumental in the design of the calorimeter. Construction responsibilities include one third of the crystals and associated readout as well as the calibration system. They also will have responsibility for a major part of the online system software. Although data taking ceased in 2008 the Caltech BaBar group is active on several new forefront analyses. The neutrino group is led by Ryan Patterson. They are central to NOvA's core oscillation physics program, to calibration, and to detector readiness being responsible for the production and installation of 12,000 APD arrays. They have key roles in neutrino appearance and disappearance analysis in MINOS and MINOS+. Sunil Golwala leads the dark matter direct detection effort. Areas of activity include: CDMS II data analysis, contributions to SuperCDMS Soudan operations and analysis, R&D towards SuperCDMS SNOLAB, development of a novel screener for radiocontamination (the BetaCage), and development of new WIMP detector concepts. Ren-Yuan Zhu leads the HEP crystal laboratory for the advanced detector R&D effort. The crystal lab is involved in development of novel scintillating crystals and has proposed several crystal based detector concepts for future HEP experiments at the energy and intensity frontiers. Its current research effort is concentrated on development of fast crystal scintillators with good radiation hardness and low cost. II) THEORETICAL PHYSICS The main theme of Sergei Gukov's current research is the relation between the geometry of quantum group invariants and their categorification, on the one hand, and the physics of supersymmetric gauge theory and string theory, on the other. Anton Kapustin's research spans a variety of topics in non-perturbative Quantum Field Theory (QFT). His main areas of interest are supersymmetric gauge theories, non-perturbative dualities in QFT, disorder operators, Topological Quantum Field Theory, and non-relativistic QFT. He is also interested in the foundations and possible generalizations of Quantum Mechanics. Hirosi Ooguri's current research has two main components. One is to find exact results in Calabi-Yau compactification of string theory. Another is to explore applications of the AdS/CFT correspondence. He also plans to continue his project with Caltech postdoctoral fellows on BPS spectra of supersymmetric gauge theories in diverse dimensions. John Preskill works on quantum information science. This field may lead to important future technologies, and also lead to new understanding of issues in fundamental physics John Schwarz has been exploring a number of topics in superstring theory/M-theory, supersymmetric gauge theory, and their AdS/CFT relationships. Much of the motivation for these studies is the desire to gain a deeper understanding of superstring theory and M-theory. The research interests of Mark Wise span particle physics, cosmology and nuclear physics. His recent work has centered on extensions of the standard model where baryon number and lepton number are gauged and extensions of the standard model that have novel sources of baryon number violation and new sources of charged lepton flavor violation

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Renewable Electricity Futures. Operational Analysis of the Western Interconnection at Very High Renewable Penetrations

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures)--an analysis of the costs and grid impacts of integrating large amounts of renewable electricity generation into the U.S. power system--examined renewable energy resources, technical issues regarding the integration of these resources into the grid, and the costs associated with high renewable penetration scenarios. These scenarios included up to 90% of annual generation from renewable sources, although most of the analysis was focused on 80% penetration scenarios. Hourly production cost modeling was performed to understand the operational impacts of high penetrations. One of the conclusions of RE Futures was that further work was necessary to understand whether the operation of the system was possible at sub-hourly time scales and during transient events. This study aimed to address part of this by modeling the operation of the power system at sub-hourly time scales using newer methodologies and updated data sets for transmission and generation infrastructure. The goal of this work was to perform a detailed, sub-hourly analysis of very high penetration scenarios for a single interconnection (the Western Interconnection). It focused on operational impacts, and it helps verify that the operational results from the capacity expansion models are useful. The primary conclusion of this study is that sub-hourly operation of the grid is possible with renewable generation levels between 80% and 90%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗