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At least 523 records · Page 29
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DOE OSTI2021

A machine-learning inverse model framework for rapid forecasting and history matching in unconventional reservoirs

Model-based optimization for real-time forecasting in unconventional reser-voirs requires novel methods and work?ows since the strategies and work?ows used in conventional reservoirs are either inapplicable, or prohibitively expen-sive and time-consuming. Insu?cient site data and computational expense of high-?delity simulations mean that work?ows with high-?delity simulations are not ideal for usage in comprehensive uncertainty quanti?cation stud-ies that require 1000s of forward model runs. We present an alternative, novel work?ow for unconventional reservoirs, based on the interplay between reduced-order models and machine-learning. Our physics-informed machine-learning (PIML) work?ow addresses the challenges to real-time reservoir management in uncoventionals, namely lack of data (the time-frame for which the wells have been producing), and computational expense of high-?delity modeling. We use the machine-learning paradigm of transfer-learning to bind together fast but less accurate reduced-order models with slow, but accurate high-?delity models and circumvent the di?culties inherent in the current state-of-the-art for unconventionals. Such a PIML work?ow, grounded in physics, is a viable candidate for real-time history matching and production forecasting in a fractured shale gas reservoir. The signi?cance of our approach is that while it is developed for a particu-lar well and site in the Marcelus Shale gas reservoir of the Appalachian basin (MSEEL), it is not wedded to it. We expect the same work?ow can be ap-plied to other shale formations (e.g., Woodford, Barnett, Utica, EagleFord) should site-data become available, using the same set of machine-learning techniques from transfer learning. Some ?ne-tuning (or minimal retraining of the neural networks) will be required to transfer knowledge across shale gas sites/formations but it is a clearly superior alternative to developing a new machine-learning model altogether when considering a di?erent site.

Srinivasan, Shriram↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2024

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating the performance of the immersed boundary method within the grey zone for improved weather forecasts in the HRRR model

Improved performance of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather forecast in regions of complex terrain is a primary goal of the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2). The HRRR forecast uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a horizontal resolution of 3 km and includes an experimental nest over the WFIP2 study area with 750 m horizontal resolution. At these resolutions the complex terrain of the WFIP2 study area, the Columbia River Gorge, is well resolved and can include steep terrain slopes. The terrain-following coordinate system used by the WRF model is susceptible to numerical instabilities as model resolution and resolved terrain slopes increase. The immersed boundary method (IBM) has been shown to reduce these instabilities at very high resolutions (roughly 10 m or less), and thus use of IBM is desirable for high resolution simulations over the WFIP2 study area. However, accuracy of the IBM appears to degrade with coarser grid resolution and the sensitivities of IBMs to grid resolution are not well understood. In this report, we work to understand the accuracy and performance of the IBM at coarser resolutions with the goal of developing an IBM for use in the grey zone, or the intermediate scales between mesoscale and large-eddy simulation. Here, several existing immersed boundary algorithms from the literature are implemented into WRF, along with a new implementation developed during this project. The IBM algorithms for the atmospheric boundary layer are evaluated within the WRF model for a range of grid resolutions. While the strong performance of IBMs at high-resolution is confirmed, important model sensitivities are also revealed. Particular focus is placed on IBM performance at intermediate grid resolutions, which to this point has not been studied in the atmospheric modeling literature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Short-Term Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting Based on Sky Imaging and Pattern Recognition

Accurate short-term forecasting is crucial for solar integration in the power grid. In this paper, a classification forecasting framework based on pattern recognition is developed for 1-hour-ahead global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. Three sets of models in the forecasting framework are trained by the data partitioned from the preprocessing analysis. The first two sets of models forecast GHI for the first four daylight hours of each day. Then the GHI values in the remaining hours are forecasted by an optimal machine learning model determined based on a weather pattern classification model in the third model set. The weather pattern is determined by a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The developed framework is validated by the GHI and sky imaging data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Results show that the developed short-term forecasting framework outperforms the persistence benchmark by 16% in terms of the normalized mean absolute error and 25% in terms of the normalized root mean square error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Model Summertime Boundary Layer Cloud Development over Complex Terrain in New York State

Weather forecasting over complex terrain with diverse land cover is challenging. Utilizing the high-resolution observations from New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we are able to evaluate the surface processes of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Model in a detailed, scale-dependent manner. Here, in the study, possible impacts of land–atmosphere interaction on surface meteorology and boundary layer cloud development are investigated with different model resolutions, land surface models (LSMs), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical parameterizations. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, version 3 (HRRR), forecasting model is used as a reference for the sensitivity evaluation. Results show that over complex terrain, the high-resolution simulations (1 km × 60 vertical levels) generally perform better compared to low-resolution (3 km × 50 levels) in both surface meteorology and cloud fields. LSMs play a more important role in surface meteorology compared to PBL schemes. The NoahMP land surface model exhibits daytime warmer and drier biases compared to the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) due to better prediction of the Bowen ratio in RUC. The PBL schemes would affect the convective strength in the boundary layer. The Shin–Hong (SH) scale-aware scheme tends to produce the strongest convective strength in the PBL, while the ACM2 PBL scheme rarely resolved convection even at 1-km resolution. By considering the radiation effect of subgrid-scale (SGS) clouds, the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino eddy diffusivity mass flux (MYNN-EDMF) predicted the highest cloud coverage and lowest surface solar radiation bias. The configuration of SGS clouds in MYNN-EDMF would not only significantly reduce shortwave radiation bias, but also affect the convection behaviors through land surface–cloud–radiation interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Ocean Observation Impacts on Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean Models Using Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO)

Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) is a technique that can efficiently identify the beneficial/detrimental impacts of every observation in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA). While EFSO has been successfully employed on atmospheric DA, it has never been applied to ocean or coupled DA due to the lack of a suitable error norm for oceanic variables. This study introduces a new density-based error norm incorporating sea temperature and salinity forecast errors, making EFSO applicable to ocean DA for the first time. We implemented the oceanic EFSO on the CFSv2-LETKF and investigated the impact of ocean observations under a weakly coupled DA framework. By removing the detrimental ocean observations detected by EFSO, the CFSv2 forecasts were significantly improved, showing the validation of impact estimation and the great potential of EFSO to be extended as a data selection criterion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Snow Micro-Structure Model

PIKA is a MOOSE-based application for modeling micro-structure evolution of seasonal snow. The model will be useful for environmental, atmospheric, and climate scientists. Possible applications include application to energy balance models, ice sheet modeling, and avalanche forecasting. The model implements physics from published, peer-reviewed articles. The main purpose is to foster university and laboratory collaboration to build a larger multi-scale snow model using MOOSE. The main feature of the code is that it is implemented using the MOOSE framework, thus making features such as multiphysics coupling, adaptive mesh refinement, and parallel scalability native to the application. PIKA implements three equations: the phase-field equation for tracking the evolution of the ice-air interface within seasonal snow at the grain-scale; the heat equation for computing the temperature of both the ice and air within the snow; and the mass transport equation for monitoring the diffusion of water vapor in the pore space of the snow.

Micah Johnson, AndrewSlaughter↗
DOE OSTI2019

Winds of Change: Assessing Wind Energy Efficiency in Complex Terrain

In 2015, the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initiated a four-year study, the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which aims to improve the accuracy of meteorological models that forecast wind speed in complex terrain for applications in wind energy (Wilczak et al.2019). As a part of WFIP2, a dataset was collected in the Columbian River and Basin regions of Oregon and Washington which led to significant wind forecast model improvements (Kenyon et al.2018). Similar to the observations performed in Oregon and Washington, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) systems were deployed at three observation points at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300 Experimental Test Site as part of WFIP2. Site 300, located in the rolling hills approximately ten kilometers from the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, represents a second complex terrain location for validating and evaluating the model improvements made using the original Columbian River dataset. The three LiDARsystems continuously collected wind speed and direction data at heights ranging from 10 meters to 150 meters. The data were used to better understand how wind flow is modified over hills and valleys in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area and to determine the optimal hub height for new turbine installations in the region. We observed five popular turbine models that are installed in the Altamont Wind Resource Area Using the collected data and comparisons of existing turbine models in the area, the most efficient turbine model for the Altamont Wind ResourceArea based on power output was determined to be the Mitsubishi 1.0MW. Future work related to this research includes further comparing turbine models based on factors including overall cost and effects on wildlife as well as determining optimal spacing between turbine units.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Air Quality Forecasts with AP4 Model Updates

This poster was presented at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2024 Fall Conference. The poster describes the latest developments through collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University on point-source emissions impact modeling using the latest high-resolution reduced-form air pollution model, AP4.

Nguyen, Thuy [Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)]↗
DOE OSTI2014

Snow Micro-Structure Model

PIKA is a MOOSE-based application for modeling micro-structure evolution of seasonal snow. The model will be useful for environmental, atmospheric, and climate scientists. Possible applications include application to energy balance models, ice sheet modeling, and avalanche forecasting. The model implements physics from published, peer-reviewed articles. The main purpose is to foster university and laboratory collaboration to build a larger multi-scale snow model using MOOSE. The main feature of the code is that it is implemented using the MOOSE framework, thus making features such as multiphysics coupling, adaptive mesh refinement, and parallel scalability native to the application. PIKA implements three equations: the phase-field equation for tracking the evolution of the ice-air interface within seasonal snow at the grain-scale; the heat equation for computing the temperature of both the ice and air within the snow; and the mass transport equation for monitoring the diffusion of water vapor in the pore space of the snow.

Micah Johnson, Andrew Slaughter↗