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At least 523 records · Page 29

Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Study region: Northeastern United States (NEUS). Study focus: We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectrophotometry of extreme helium stars - Ultraviolet fluxes and effective temperatures

Ultraviolet flux distributions are presented for the extremely helium rich stars BD +10 deg 2179, HD 124448, LSS 3378, BD -9 deg 4395, LSE 78, HD 160641, LSIV -1 deg 2, BD 1 deg 3438, HD 168476, MV Sgr, LS IV-14 deg 109 (CD -35 deg 11760), LSII +33 deg 5 and BD +1 deg 4381 (LSIV +2 deg 13) obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE). Broadband photometry and a newly computed grid of line blanketed model atmospheres were used to determine accurate angular diameters and total stellar fluxes. The resultant effective temperatures are in most cases in satisfactory agreement with those based on broadband photometry and/or high resolution spectroscopy in the visible. For two objects, LSII +33 deg 5 and LSE 78, disagreement was found between the IUE observations and broadband photometry: the colors predict temperatures around 20,000 K, whereas the UV spectra indicate much lower photospheric temperatures of 14,000 to 15,000 K. The new temperature scale for extreme helium stars extends to lower effective temperatures than that of Heber and Schoenberner (1981) and covers the range from 8,500 K to 32,000 K. Previously announced in STAR as N83-24433

Heber, U.↗

Spectral photometry of extreme helium stars: Ultraviolet fluxes and effective temperature

Ultraviolet flux distributions are presented for the extremely helium rich stars BD +10 deg 2179, HD 124448, LSS 3378, BD -9 deg 4395, LSE 78, HD 160641, LSIV -1 deg 2, BD 1 deg 3438, HD 168476, MV Sgr, LS IV-14 deg 109 (CD -35 deg 11760), LSII +33 deg 5 and BD +1 deg 4381 (LSIV +2 deg 13) obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE). Broad band photometry and a newly computed grid of line blanketed model atmospheres were used to determine accurate angular diameters and total stellar fluxes. The resultant effective temperatures are in most cases in satisfactory agreement with those based on broad band photometry and/or high resolution spectroscopy in the visible. For two objects, LSII +33 deg 5 and LSE 78, disagreement was found between the IUE observations and broadband photometry: the colors predict temperatures around 20,000 K, whereas the UV spectra indicate much lower photospheric temperatures of 14,000 to 15,000 K. The new temperature scale for extreme helium stars extends to lower effective temperatures than that of Heber and Schoenberner (1981) and covers the range from 8,500 K to 32,000 K.

Drilling, J. S.↗

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Deformation and failure of the CrCoNi medium-entropy alloy subjected to extreme shock loading

The extraordinary work hardening ability and fracture toughness of the face-centered cubic (fcc) high-entropy alloys render them ideal candidates for many structural applications. Here, the deformation and failure mechanisms of an equiatomic CrCoNi medium-entropyalloy (MEA) were investigated by powerful laser-driven shock experiments. Multiscale characterization demonstrates that profuse planar defects including stacking faults, nanotwins, and hexagonal nanolamella were generated during shock compression, forming a three-dimensional network. During shock release, the MEA fractured by strong tensile deformation and numerous voids was observed in the vicinity of the fracture plane. High defect populations, nanorecrystallization, and amorphization were found adjacent to these areas of localized deformation. Molecular dynamics simulations corroborate the experimental results and suggest that deformation-induced defects formed before void nucleation govern the geometry of void growth and delay their coalescence. Our results indicate that the CrCoNi-based alloys are impact resistant, damage tolerant, and potentially suitable in applications under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electronic structure in a transition metal dipnictide TaAs 2

Abstract The family of transition-metal dipnictides has been of theoretical and experimental interest because this family hosts topological states and extremely large magnetoresistance (MR). Recently, T a A s 2 , a member of this family, has been predicted to support a topological crystalline insulating state. Here, by using high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES), we reveal both closed and open pockets in the metallic Fermi surface (FS) and linearly dispersive bands on the ( 2 ‾ 01 ) surface, along with the presence of extreme MR observed from magneto-transport measurements. A comparison of the ARPES results with first-principles computations shows that the linearly dispersive bands on the measured surface of T a A s 2 are trivial bulk bands. The absence of symmetry-protected surface state on the ( 2 ‾ 01 ) surface indicates its topologically dark nature. The presence of open FS features suggests that the open-orbit fermiology could contribute to the extremely large MR of T a A s 2 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Heat Vulnerability Index Development and Mapping

Extreme heat is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the U.S. Exposure to extreme heat will be exacerbated due to global climate change. It is thus crucial to design a key performance indicator, heat vulnerability index (HVI), to represent overall heat risk which can help identify susceptible regions and sub-populations in cities in the face of heatwaves. Most existing HVI tools only consider outdoor heat exposure. This paper developed an HVI web map tool incorporating both the outdoor and the indoor heat exposure, as well as population sensitivity and adaptation capability across census tracts in the city of Fresno, California. The tool can assist the planning of infrastructure and resources to reduce residents’ vulnerability to extreme heat events.

Xu, Yujie↗

Distribution System Resilience Assessment Considering PV Vulnerabilities for Hurricane Events

Distribution networks are increasingly vulnerable to damage and outages from extreme weather events. The integration of solar photovoltaics (PVs) further complicates resilience analysis due to its weather-dependent nature. However, limited research has examined the impacts of weather on PVs under severe events like hurricanes. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to assess distribution system resilience considering PV vulnerabilities during hurricanes. The framework incorporates (i) a spatiotemporal fragility model to evaluate failure probabilities for distribution lines and PVs, and (ii) resilience indices at both system and component levels. The approach offers valuable insights into the resilience of modern distribution grids under extreme weather conditions. Numerical results on the unbalanced IEEE 123-bus test system validate the effectiveness of the framework.

Vahedi, Soroush [University of Connecticut, Storrs↗

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aircraft microwave observations and simulations of deep convection from 18 to 183 GHz. I - Observations

Aircraft passive microwave observations of deep atmospheric convection at frequencies between 18 and 183 GHz are presented in conjunction with visible and infrared satellite and aircraft observations and ground-based radar observations. Deep convective cores are indicated in the microwave data by negative brightness temperature, T/(B) deviations from the land background (270 K) to extreme T(B) values below 100 K at 37, 92, and 183 GHz and below 200 K at 18 GHz. These T(B) minima, due to scattering by ice held aloft by the intense updrafts, are well correlated with areas of high radar reflectivity. For this land background case, T(B) is inversely correlated with rain rate at all frequencies due to T(B)-ice-rain correlations. Mean Delta-T between vertically polarized and horizontally polarized radiance in precipitation areas is approximately 6 K at both 18 GHz and 37 GHz, indicating nonspherical precipitation-size ice particles with a preferred horizontal orientation. Convective cores not observed in the visible and infrared data are clearly defined in the microwave observations, and borders of convective rain areas are well defined using the high-frequency (90 GHz and greater) microwave observations.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Streamflow in the United States: Characteristics, trends, regime shifts, and extremes

Long-term streamflow observations contain essential information for understanding hydrological changes and managing water resources. A continental-scale dataset or analysis of temporal streamflow change is still lacking across hydrologic gauges in the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we compiled 70 years of streamflow records from 1951 to 2021 at ~ 8000 hydrologic stations across the CONUS and characterized temporal trends, regime shifts, and extreme events using a Bayesian time series analysis algorithm. We found that the occurrences of sudden streamflow changes (e.g., regime shifts and extreme events) have been increasing with time across the CONUS. In addition, we derived 181 streamflow indicators that are valuable for hydrological and biological applications, such as the duration and frequency of high or low streamflow events. The Mississippi River Basin, especially the middle and lower parts, was a hot spot of high-frequency high-flow events. Overall, we anticipate the dataset generated here offers valuable information for understanding and quantifying changes in water resources across the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supporting Special Values in ZFP

This white paper outlines potential approaches to supporting special values in the ZFP numerical compressor without breaking backwards compatibility. Other than infinities and NaNs, special values are often used to indicate the absence of data, where no value is defined, for example by designating finite but extreme “fill values” as special. Such fill values are commonly used in earth system science, among other applications, but if left as is during compression lead to artifacts and loss of precision in nearby true values. Multiple candidate solutions that would allow ZFP to recognize special values are here proposed. Until such support is available, we also sketch available workarounds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Remote detection of ocean features in the Lesser Antilles using ERTS-1 data

The author has identified the following significant results. Photographic data received from the ERTS-1 satellite over the Lesser Antilles Islands shows distinct ocean features on the leeward side of each island. Attempts to relate these features to ocean eddy formations with the aid of ground truth data proved unsuccessful. However, analysis of surface and upper air wind data correlate extremely well with the size, shape, and downwind extent of the ocean features. Studies to date indicate strongly that these features result from horizontal differences in sea surface roughness due to the wind shadow effect of the islands. The results suggest that horizontal variations in the reflectance of the sea surface will make remote sensing of the ocean mixed layer more difficult than previously anticipated. The surface reflection seems to be large enough to mask the smaller variations in backscattered energy from the mixed layer. Efforts to limit the effect of surface reflectance by photographic differencing of two MSS bands were unsuccessful. A supplementary study to enhance the energy reflected from the mixed layer through numerical differencing of ERTS-1 digital data is planned.

Hanson, K. J.↗

Electron capture in carbon dwarf supernovae

The rates of electron capture on heavier elements under the extreme conditions predicted for dwarf star supernovae have been computed, incorporating modifications that seem to be indicated by present experimental results. An estimate of the maximum possible value of such rates is also given. The distribution of nuclei in nuclear statistical equilibrium has been calculated for the range of expected supernovae conditions, including the effects of the temperature dependence of nuclear partition functions. These nuclide abundance distributions are then used to compute nuclear equilibrium thermodynamic properties. The effects of the electron capture on such equilibrium matter are discussed. In the context of the 'carbon detonation' supernova model, the dwarf central density required to ensure core collapse to a neutron star configuration is found to be slightly higher than that obtained by Bruenn (1972) with the electron capture rates of Hansen (1966).-

Mazurek, T. J.↗

VV 5-32-63/64 - The 'supermassive double galaxy' in Abell 1775 revisited

Spectroscopy is presented for galaxies in A 1775, the cluster containing VV 5-32-63/64, an apparent double galaxy which has long been considered a gravitationally bound system with supermassive components (10 to the 13th solar masses). However, this model has run afoul of recent radio observations, which detected an extremely long straight radio tail emanating from the eastern galaxy in the pair. The present observations indicate that if both galaxies are members of the same cluster, the cluster radial-velocity dispersion (1522 km/sec) is large enough to account for the velocity difference between the two VV galaxies (1650 km/sec). It is therefore suggested that the VV galaxies are not gravitationally bound and need not be supermassive. The large velocity dispersion measured for A 1775 also strains suggested velocity dispersion vs X-ray luminosity relations for clusters of galaxies, as A 1775 has not yet been detected at X-ray wavelengths.

Hintzen, P.↗

The RS Canum Venaticorum binaries

This review presents a brief up-to-date summary of observational properties of RS CVn binaries, with emphasis on the photometric. A table of the 69 systems known at this time give the orbital period, mean apparent V magnitude, spectral classification, range of amplitude determinations for the photometric wave, and an indication of known period variations and eclipses. Points considered are (1) the underlying cause of the extreme surface activity, (2) the evolutionary status, (3) the geometric configuration, (4) the temperature, size, shape, location, and lifetimes of the dark spot regions, (5) synchronization of rotational and orbital motion, (6) spectroscopic features in the optical and far ultraviolet, (7) the wave migration, (8) the search for spot cycles, and (9) the orbital period variations produced by the enhanced stellar wind.

Hall, D. S.↗

Comments on laser-excited fluorescence of the hydroxyl radical: Relaxation coefficients at atmospheric pressure, appendix 5

The lifetime of the excited state of a atom or molecule is often determined from the rate of fluorescence decay originating as a function of buffer gas pressure, an accurate determination is made of the rates of collision induced transitions away from the excited state. Deconvolution can in principle be employed to resolve fluorescence times shorter than the response times of the system. However, attainable reproducibility and accuracy in actual experiments usually set a limit beyond which no meaningful results are expected. Prudence thus dictates that the results of deconvolution be viewed with extreme caution whenever fluorescence time much shorter than the response of times of the system are indicated.

Wang, C. C.↗

NGC 4314. I - Visible and short-wavelength infrared surface photometry of the nucleus and bar

BVI (TI CCD) and JHK (University of Texas IR Camera) surface photometry of NGC 4314, an SB (rs)ap anemic spiral with a nuclear ring containing recent star formation, is presented. The shortwave IR (SWIR) frames reveal a nuclear bar of length 2 arcsec at PA of 0 deg. The nuclear ring and associated dust were detected in all SWIR color indices. A nuclear spiral was detected in the visible and SWIR just exterior to the ring. Extremely low-amplitude spiral-shaped deficits were found in the stellar distribution in the SWIR in this same region. These are attributed to dust, since CO is detectable at or near these locations. Average minor-axis profiles show this galaxy to have a nuclear bulge obeying the de Vaucouleurs r exp 1/4 law for values in the range 2-7 arcsec. The extinction and scattering characteristics of dust near the sites of recent star formation in the nuclear ring are discussed.

Benedict, G. F.↗