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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Gong, Gavin↗
NASA NTRS1994

Independent pixel and Monte Carlo estimates of stratocumulus albedo

Monte Carlo radiative transfer methods are employed here to estimate the plane-parallel albedo bias for marine stratocumulus clouds. This is the bias in estimates of the mesoscale-average albedo, which arises from the assumption that cloud liquid water is uniformly distributed. The authors compare such estimates with those based on a more realistic distribution generated from a fractal model of marine stratocumulus clouds belonging to the class of 'bounded cascade' models. In this model the cloud top and base are fixed, so that all variations in cloud shape are ignored. The model generates random variations in liquid water along a single horizontal direction, forming fractal cloud streets while conserving the total liquid water in the cloud field. The model reproduces the mean, variance, and skewness of the vertically integrated cloud liquid water, as well as its observed wavenumber spectrum, which is approximately a power law. The Monte Carlo method keeps track of the three-dimensional paths solar photons take through the cloud field, using a vectorized implementation of a direct technique. The simplifications in the cloud field studied here allow the computations to be accelerated. The Monte Carlo results are compared to those of the independent pixel approximation, which neglects net horizontal photon transport. Differences between the Monte Carlo and independent pixel estimates of the mesoscale-average albedo are on the order of 1% for conservative scattering, while the plane-parallel bias itself is an order of magnitude larger. As cloud absorption increases, the independent pixel approximation agrees even more closely with the Monte Carlo estimates. This result holds for a wide range of sun angles and aspect ratios. Thus, horizontal photon transport can be safely neglected in estimates of the area-average flux for such cloud models. This result relies on the rapid falloff of the wavenumber spectrum of stratocumulus, which ensures that the smaller-scale variability, where the radiative transfer is more three-dimensional, contributes less to the plane-parallel albedo bias than the larger scales, which are more variable. The lack of significant three-dimensional effects also relies on the assumption of a relatively simple geometry. Even with these assumptions, the independent pixel approximation is accurate only for fluxes averaged over large horizontal areas, many photon mean free paths in diameter, and not for local radiance values, which depend strongly on the interaction between neighboring cloud elements.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the Cramer-Rao bound for restored astronomical observations

This work addresses the problem of assigning confidence intervals to estimated photometry data obtained from astronomical observations. The proposed solution is to estimate the Cramer-Rao bound, which is an analytical expression that describes the minimum obtainable mean square error associated with a given estimate of a parameter. This Letter presents a compact and simple form for the bound associated with a linear estimator such as a Wiener filter estimator. A prescription for estimating the variance associated with each element in a restored object was developed using an analytical model for observed data corrupted by either Poisson or Gaussian noise. Both one- and two-dimensional examples are presented.

Zaccheo, T. S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating gravity wave parameters from oblique high-frequency backscatter: Modeling and analysis

A new technique for estimating electron density perturbation amplitudes of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), using HF radar data, is presented. TIDs are observed in HF radar data as enhancements of the ground-scattered power which propagate through the radar's field of view. These TIDs are the ionospheric manifestation of atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves. TID electron density perturbation amplitudes were estimated by simulating the radar returns, using HF ray tracing through a model ionosphere perturbed by a model gravity wave. The simulation determined the return power in the ground-scattered portion of the signal as a function of range, and this was compared to HF radar data from the Goose Bay HF radar at a time when evidence of gravity waves was present in the data. By varying the amplitude of the electron density perturbation in the model it was possible to estimate the perturbation of the actual wave. It was found that the perturbations that are observed by the Goose Bay HF radar are of the order of 20% to 35%. It was also found that the number of observable power enhancements, and the relative amplitudes of these enhancements, depended on the vertical thickness of the gravity wave's source region. From the simulations and observations it was estimated that the source region for the case presented here was approximately 20 km thick. In addition, the energy in the wave packet was calculated and compared to an estimate of the available energy in the source region. It was found that the wave energy was about 0.2% of the estimated available source region energy.

Bristow, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Attitude and Trajectory Estimation Using Earth Magnetic Field Data

The magnetometer has long been a reliable, inexpensive sensor used in spacecraft momentum management and attitude estimation. Recent studies show an increased accuracy potential for magnetometer-only attitude estimation systems. Since the Earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computer and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. Traditionally, satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate system, using different measurement data. Recently, trajectory estimation for low earth orbit satellites was successfully demonstrated in ground software using only magnetometer data. This work proposes a single augmented extended Kalman Filter to simultaneously and autonomously estimate both spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from a magnetometer and either dynamically determined rates or gyro-measured body rates.

Deutschmann, Julie↗
NASA NTRS1997

Predictive Attitude Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for attitude estimation using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The new algorithm is based on a predictive filtering scheme designed for spacecraft without rate measuring devices. The major advantage of this new algorithm over traditional Kalman filter approaches is that the model error is not assumed to represented by an unbiased Gaussian noise process with known covariance, but instead is determined during the estimation process. This is achieved by simultaneously solving system optimality conditions and an output error constraint. This approach is well suited for GPS attitude estimation since some error sources that contribute to attitude inaccuracy, such as signal multipath, are known to be non-Gaussian processes. Also, the predictive filter scheme can use either GPS signals or vector observations or a combination of both for attitude estimation, so that performance characteristics can be maintained during periods of GPS attitude sensor outage. The performance of the new algorithm is tested using flight data from the REX-2 spacecraft. Results are shown using the predictive filter to estimate the attitude from both GPS signals and magnetometer measurements, and comparing that solution to a magnetometer-only based solution. Results using the new estimation algorithm indicate that GPS-based solutions are verified to within 2 degrees using the magnetometer cross-check for the REX-2 spacecraft. GPS attitude accuracy of better than 1 degree is expected per axis, but cannot be reliably proven due to inaccuracies in the magnetic field model.

Crassidis, John L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A low cost approach to simultaneous orbit, attitude, and rate estimation using an extended Kalman filter

An innovative approach to autonomous attitude and trajectory estimation is available using only magnetic field data and rate data. The estimation is performed simultaneously using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), a well known algorithm used extensively in onboard applications. The magnetic field is measured on a satellite by a magnetometer, an inexpensive and reliable sensor flown on virtually all satellites in low earth orbit. Rate data is provided by a gyro, which can be costly. This system has been developed and successfully tested in a post-processing mode using magnetometer and gyro data from 4 satellites supported by the Flight Dynamics Division at Goddard. In order for this system to be truly low cost, an alternative source for rate data must be utilized. An independent system which estimates spacecraft rate has been successfully developed and tested using only magnetometer data or a combination of magnetometer data and sun sensor data, which is less costly than a gyro. This system also uses an EKF. Merging the two systems will provide an extremely low cost, autonomous approach to attitude and trajectory estimation. In this work we provide the theoretical background of the combined system. The measurement matrix is developed by combining the measurement matrix of the orbit and attitude estimation EKF with the measurement matrix of the rate estimation EKF, which is composed of a pseudo-measurement which makes the effective measurement a function of the angular velocity. Associated with this is the development of the noise covariance matrix associated with the original measurement combined with the new pseudo-measurement. In addition, the combination of the dynamics from the two systems is presented along with preliminary test results.

Deutschmann, Julie↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Low Cost Approach to Simultaneous Orbit, Attitude, and Rate Estimation Using an Extended Kalman Filter

An innovative approach to autonomous attitude and trajectory estimation is available using only magnetic field data and rate data. The estimation is performed simultaneously using an Extended Kalman Filter, a well known algorithm used extensively in onboard applications. The magnetic field is measured on a satellite by a magnetometer, an inexpensive and reliable sensor flown on virtually all satellites in low earth orbit. Rate data is provided by a gyro, which can be costly. This system has been developed and successfully tested in a post-processing mode using magnetometer and gyro data from 4 satellites supported by the Flight Dynamics Division at Goddard. In order for this system to be truly low cost, an alternative source for rate data must be utilized. An independent system which estimate spacecraft rate has been successfully developed and tested using only magnetometer data or a combination of magnetometer data and sun sensor data, which is less costly than a gyro. This system also uses an Extended Kalman Filter. Merging the two systems will provide an extremely low cost, autonomous approach to attitude and trajectory estimation. In this work we provide the theoretical background of the combined system. The measurement matrix is developed by combining the measurement matrix of the orbit and attitude estimation EKF with the measurement matrix of the rate estimation EKF, which is composed of a pseudo-measurement which makes the effective measurement a function of the angular velocity. Associated with this is the development of the noise covariance matrix associated with the original measurement combined with the new pseudo-measurement. In addition, the combination of the dynamics from the two systems is presented along with preliminary test results.

Deutschmann, Julie↗
NASA NTRS1998

Estimation of Soil Moisture Profile using a Simple Hydrology Model and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

Soil moisture is an important component of analysis in many Earth science disciplines. Soil moisture information can be obtained either by using microwave remote sensing or by using a hydrologic model. In this study, we combined these two approaches to increase the accuracy of profile soil moisture estimation. A hydrologic model was used to analyze the errors in the estimation of soil moisture using the data collected during Huntsville '96 microwave remote sensing experiment in Huntsville, Alabama. Root mean square errors (RMSE) in soil moisture estimation increase by 22% with increase in the model input interval from 6 hr to 12 hr for the grass-covered plot. RMSEs were reduced for given model time step by 20-50% when model soil moisture estimates were updated using remotely-sensed data. This methodology has a potential to be employed in soil moisture estimation using rainfall data collected by a space-borne sensor, such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, if remotely-sensed data are available to update the model estimates.

Soman, Vishwas V.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Stress Recovery and Error Estimation for 3-D Shell Structures

The C1-continuous stress fields obtained from finite element analyses are in general lower- order accurate than are the corresponding displacement fields. Much effort has focussed on increasing their accuracy and/or their continuity, both for improved stress prediction and especially error estimation. A previous project developed a penalized, discrete least squares variational procedure that increases the accuracy and continuity of the stress field. The variational problem is solved by a post-processing, 'finite-element-type' analysis to recover a smooth, more accurate, C1-continuous stress field given the 'raw' finite element stresses. This analysis has been named the SEA/PDLS. The recovered stress field can be used in a posteriori error estimators, such as the Zienkiewicz-Zhu error estimator or equilibrium error estimators. The procedure was well-developed for the two-dimensional (plane) case involving low-order finite elements. It has been demonstrated that, if optimal finite element stresses are used for the post-processing, the recovered stress field is globally superconvergent. Extension of this work to three dimensional solids is straightforward. Attachment: Stress recovery and error estimation for shell structure (abstract only). A 4-node, shear-deformable flat shell element developed via explicit Kirchhoff constraints (abstract only). A novel four-node quadrilateral smoothing element for stress enhancement and error estimation (abstract only).

Riggs, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Effect of Medium Symmetries in Limiting the Number of Parameters Estimated with Polarimetric Interferometry

The addition of interferometric backscattering pairs to the conventional polarimetric SAR data over forests and other vegetated areas increases the dimensionality of the data space, in principle enabling the estimation of a larger number of vegetation parameters. Without regard to the sensitivity of these data to vegetation scattering parameters, this paper poses the question: Will increasing the data channels as such result in a one-to-one increase in the number of parameters that can be estimated, or do vegetation and data properties inherently limit that number otherwise? In this paper, the complete polarimetric interferometric covariance matrix is considered and various symmetry properties of the scattering medium are used to study whether any of the correlation pairs can be eliminated. The number of independent pairs has direct consequences in their utility in parameter estimation schemes, since the maximum number of parameters that can be estimated cannot exceed the number of unique measurements. The independent components of the polarimetric interferometric SAR (POL/INSAR) data are derived for media with reflection, rotation, and azimuth symmetries, which are often encountered in vegetated surfaces. Similar derivations have been carried out before for simple polarimetry, i.e., zero baseline. This paper extends those to the interferometric case of general nonzero baselines. It is shown that depending on the type of symmetries present, the number of independent available measurements that can be used to estimate medium parameters will vary. In particular, whereas in the general case there are 27 mathematically independent measurements possible from a polarimetric interferometer, this number can be reduced to 15, 9, and 6 if the medium has reflection, rotation, or azimuthal symmetries, respectively. The results can be used in several ways in the interpretation of SAR data and the development of parameter estimation schemes, which will be discussed at the presentation. Recent POL/INSAR data from the JPL AIRSAR over a forested area will be used to demonstrate the results of this derivation. This work was performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, under contract from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Moghaddam, Mahta↗
NASA NTRS2000

Sampling Errors of SSM/I and TRMM Rainfall Averages: Comparison with Error Estimates from Surface Data and a Sample Model

Quantitative use of satellite-derived maps of monthly rainfall requires some measure of the accuracy of the satellite estimates. The rainfall estimate for a given map grid box is subject to both remote-sensing error and, in the case of low-orbiting satellites, sampling error due to the limited number of observations of the grid box provided by the satellite. A simple model of rain behavior predicts that Root-mean-square (RMS) random error in grid-box averages should depend in a simple way on the local average rain rate, and the predicted behavior has been seen in simulations using surface rain-gauge and radar data. This relationship was examined using satellite SSM/I data obtained over the western equatorial Pacific during TOGA COARE. RMS error inferred directly from SSM/I rainfall estimates was found to be larger than predicted from surface data, and to depend less on local rain rate than was predicted. Preliminary examination of TRMM microwave estimates shows better agreement with surface data. A simple method of estimating rms error in satellite rainfall estimates is suggested, based on quantities that can be directly computed from the satellite data.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

TRMM Science Highlights and 3-hr Quasi-global Precipitation Estimates

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than four years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging over climate analysis, improving forecasts, precipitation processes and non-precipitation applications. One focus of the talk will be the quasi-global TRMM real-time merged rainfall analysis with 3-hr resolution, which uses TRMM to calibrate estimates from other polar-orbit and geosynchronous satellites. These rainfall estimates provide useful information for applications for assimilation into numerical models and for hydrological studies. The status of precipitation estimates from different TRMM instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show differences between the active and passive microwave products. Improved versions of algorithms will shortly resolve most of these differences. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. A four-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. The evolution of precipitation analysis incorporating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) data on AQUA and ADEOS II and eventually data from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will also be described.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗
NASA NTRS2003

Limitation of Ground-based Estimates of Solar Irradiance Due to Atmospheric Variations

The uncertainty in ground-based estimates of solar irradiance is quantitatively related to the temporal variability of the atmosphere's optical thickness. The upper and lower bounds of the accuracy of estimates using the Langley Plot technique are proportional to the standard deviation of aerosol optical thickness (approx. +/- 13 sigma(delta tau)). The estimates of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) in two Cimel sun photometer channels from the Mauna Loa site of AERONET are compared with satellite observations from SOLSTICE (Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment) on UARS (Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite) for almost two years of data. The true solar variations related to the 27-day solar rotation cycle observed from SOLSTICE are about 0.15% at the two sun photometer channels. The variability in ground-based estimates is statistically one order of magnitude larger. Even though about 30% of these estimates from all Level 2.0 Cimel data fall within the 0.4 to approx. 0.5% variation level, ground-based estimates are not able to capture the 27-day solar variation observed from SOLSTICE.

Wen, Guoyong↗
NASA NTRS2002

Analysis of TRMM 3-Hourly Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimates Computed in Both Real and Post-Real Time

Satellite data form the core of the information available for estimating precipitation on a global basis. While it is possible to create such estimates solely from one sensor, researchers have increasingly moved to using combinations of sensors in an attempt to improve accuracy, coverage, and resolution. This poster updates a long-term project in which the authors are working to provide routine combined-sensor estimates of precipitation over the entire globe at relatively fine time and space intervals. The goal is to produce these globally complete precipitation estimates on a 25-km grid every 3 hours. Since late January 2002 we have been estimating precipitation for the latitude band 50 degrees N-S within about 6 hours of observation time. This work is 1 of only 2 or 3 such efforts in the world. Now we are preparing to provide similar estimates for the last 5 years. All of this work is being carried out as part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Initially, TRMM was focused on providing excellent long-term averages of precipitation in tropical regions, but since its launch in November 1997 continued research has allowed the same satellite and data system to be used for addressing weather-scale problems as well.

Huffman, George J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Kernel PLS Estimation of Single-trial Event-related Potentials

Nonlinear kernel partial least squaes (KPLS) regressior, is a novel smoothing approach to nonparametric regression curve fitting. We have developed a KPLS approach to the estimation of single-trial event related potentials (ERPs). For improved accuracy of estimation, we also developed a local KPLS method for situations in which there exists prior knowledge about the approximate latency of individual ERP components. To assess the utility of the KPLS approach, we compared non-local KPLS and local KPLS smoothing with other nonparametric signal processing and smoothing methods. In particular, we examined wavelet denoising, smoothing splines, and localized smoothing splines. We applied these methods to the estimation of simulated mixtures of human ERPs and ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) activity using a dipole simulator (BESA). In this scenario we considered ongoing EEG to represent spatially and temporally correlated noise added to the ERPs. This simulation provided a reasonable but simplified model of real-world ERP measurements. For estimation of the simulated single-trial ERPs, local KPLS provided a level of accuracy that was comparable with or better than the other methods. We also applied the local KPLS method to the estimation of human ERPs recorded in an experiment on co,onitive fatigue. For these data, the local KPLS method provided a clear improvement in visualization of single-trial ERPs as well as their averages. The local KPLS method may serve as a new alternative to the estimation of single-trial ERPs and improvement of ERP averages.

Rosipal, Roman↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Spatial Distribution of Forest Biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: A Comparison of Estimates

The amount of carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of deforestation is determined, in part, by the amount of carbon held in the biomass of the forests converted to other uses. Uncertainty in forest biomass is responsible for much of the uncertainty in current estimates of the flux of carbon from land-use change. We compared several estimates of forest biomass for the Brazilian Amazon, based on spatial interpolations of direct measurements, relationships to climatic variables, and remote sensing data. We asked three questions. First, do the methods yield similar estimates? Second, do they yield similar spatial patterns of distribution of biomass? And, third, what factors need most attention if we are to predict more accurately the distribution of forest biomass over large areas? Amazonian forests (including dead and below-ground biomass) vary by more than a factor of two, from a low of 39 PgC to a high of 93 PgC. Furthermore, the estimates disagree as to the regions of high and low biomass. The lack of agreement among estimates confirms the need for reliable determination of aboveground biomass over large areas. Potential methods include direct measurement of biomass through forest inventories with improved allometric regression equations, dynamic modeling of forest recovery following observed stand-replacing disturbances (the approach used in this research), and estimation of aboveground biomass from airborne or satellite-based instruments sensitive to the vertical structure plant canopies.

Houghton, R. A.↗