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DOE OSTI2024

Group-theoretic error mitigation enabled by classical shadows and symmetries

Abstract Estimating expectation values is a key subroutine in quantum algorithms. Near-term implementations face two major challenges: a limited number of samples required to learn a large collection of observables, and the accumulation of errors in devices without quantum error correction. To address these challenges simultaneously, we develop a quantum error-mitigation strategy called symmetry-adjusted classical shadows , by adjusting classical-shadow tomography according to how symmetries are corrupted by device errors. As a concrete example, we highlight global U(1) symmetry, which manifests in fermions as particle number and in spins as total magnetization, and illustrate their group-theoretic unification with respective classical-shadow protocols. We establish rigorous sampling bounds under readout errors obeying minimal assumptions, and perform numerical experiments with a more comprehensive model of gate-level errors derived from existing quantum processors. Our results reveal symmetry-adjusted classical shadows as a low-cost strategy to mitigate errors from noisy quantum experiments in the ubiquitous presence of symmetry.

Zhao, Andrew (ORCID:0000000202990277)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing Hardware and Software Common Cause Failures in Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems using Dual Error Propagation Method

This paper develops a methodology for quantifying software common cause failures (CCFs) in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems of nuclear power plants. To support the transition of analog I&C systems to digital in nuclear power plants, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are used. The hardware components of the I&C systems have reliability databases that can be used in the PRA studies. However, the failure data for redundant software components of the systems is sparse. Failure of components constitutes a CCF, wherein two or more components or systems fail due to a single shared cause and coupling mechanism. This paper proposes a quantification approach that can simultaneously model hardware and software components, incorporate the CCFs of software systems in the models, and bridge the gap between the failure quantification of models and the development of CCF parametric databases. We demonstrate the dual error propagation method (DEPM) by developing I&C systems failure models for a representative digital reactor trip system. The DEPM models are built to simulate the control and data flows within the systems and can accommodate failure states. By expanding DEPM to software CCFs, we generated alpha factor parameter estimates for each of the modeled error propagation mechanisms.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-Varying Output Delay Compensation-A Model-Free Approach and its Application on Cooperative On-Ramp Merging

This paper presents a model-free approach to compensate for time-varying output delay in networked control systems. The proposed architecture combines a model-free observer and the Smith predictor. The model-free observer estimates the current state while handling modeling errors and uncertainties of the system. The Smith predictor moves the effect of time delay outside the control closed-loop using the estimated delayed output and the actual output of the plant. The proposed method is applied to a cooperative on-ramp merging problem. First, an ultra-local model predictive control is implemented to provide a computationally efficient online speed planner agnostic to the vehicle dynamics. After that, a model-free observer is designed to estimate the current state. Finally, the proposed architecture is tested against a time-varying output delay with an upper bound of 200 milliseconds. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with improved tracking of intervehicle distance.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for Steady-State Single-Phase Natural Circulation

The development of numerical software for engineering applications requires the validation of the code against experimental benchmark datasets. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating the single-phase natural circulation within nuclear reactor systems, high-precision steady-state experiments are performed to capture single-phase natural circulation phenomena on an existing scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. Forced convection tests are designed precisely capturing the facility’s critical thermal-hydraulic parameters required for one-dimensional modeling, and a comprehensive single-phase natural circulation dataset is obtained with well-documented experimental uncertainty and facility description. Analysis and discussion based on the finalized dataset confirm the dataset’s ability in capturing dominant phenomena and address important physical interpretation of parameters. The dataset reported in this project provides a valuable benchmark resource for the validation of system analysis codes under single-phase natural circulation inside nuclear reactors. Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is then performed against the obtained benchmark dataset to confirm the capability of its physics model in simulating the steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators to quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Numerical uncertainty originating from finite maximum pseudo-transient time is also quantified and restricted. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, directly quantifying the simulation output in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is further determined by the estimators of Sobol’ indices through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset, which shows consistent agreement for all important quantities. The validation activity reported in this project demonstrates that SAS4A/SASSYS-1 can predict the primary parameters with satisfactorily accuracy under steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Point Sensor Networks Struggle to Detect and Quantify Short Controlled Releases at Oil and Gas Sites

This study evaluated multiple commercially available continuous monitoring (CM) point sensor network (PSN) solutions under single-blind controlled release testing conducted at operational upstream and midstream oil and natural gas (O&G) sites. During releases, PSNs reported site-level emission rate estimates of 0 kg/h between 38 and 86% of the time. When non-zero site-level emission rate estimates were provided, no linear correlation between the release rate and the reported emission rate estimate was observed. The average, aggregated across all PSN solutions during releases, shows 5% of the mixing ratio readings at downwind sensors were greater than the site’s baseline plus two standard deviations. Four of seven total PSN solutions tested during this field campaign provided site-level emission rate estimates with the site average relative error ranging from −100% to 24% for solution D, −100% to −43% for solution E, −25% for solution F (solution F was only at one site), and −99% to 430% for solution G, with an overall average of −29% across all sites and solutions. Of all the individual site-level emission rate estimates, only 11% were within ±2.5 kg/h of the study team’s best estimate of site-level emissions at the time of the releases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Early Investigation of the HHL Quantum Linear Solver for Scientific Applications

In this paper, we explore using the Harrow–Hassidim–Lloyd (HHL) algorithm to address scientific and engineering problems through quantum computing, utilizing the NWQSim simulation package on a high-performance computing platform. Focusing on domains such as power-grid management and climate projection, we demonstrate the correlations of the accuracy of quantum phase estimation, along with various properties of coefficient matrices, on the final solution and quantum resource cost in iterative and non-iterative numerical methods such as the Newton–Raphson method and finite difference method, as well as their impacts on quantum error correction costs using the Microsoft Azure Quantum resource estimator. We summarize the exponential resource cost from quantum phase estimation before and after quantum error correction and illustrate a potential way to reduce the demands on physical qubits. This work lays down a preliminary step for future investigations, urging a closer examination of quantum algorithms’ scalability and efficiency in domain applications.

hybrid software for QC-HPC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Successive Procedure for Solution Verification Based on User Needs

This paper discusses a revised solution verification procedure for computational fluid dynamics simulations to estimate the uncertainties in the quantities of interest based on discretization error models. This proposed procedure builds upon current procedures described in ASME V&V 20 but provides more guidance in determining the necessary number of mesh levels to build reliable discretization error models. Such guidance is particularly useful for practicing engineers without prior experience in solution verification. The key features of this proposed solution verification procedure are the ability to determine the need for additional mesh levels iteratively and the seamless treatment for underdetermined, exact, and overdetermined solutions of the power series approximation to the discretization error models. This study applies the proposed procedure to a set of synthetic examples to demonstrate the revised procedure’s clarity in determining the number of mesh solutions required for a reliable estimate of the discretization error in computational fluid dynamics settings. Additionally, this proposed procedure prevents a potential pathway in the current procedure in ASME V&V 20 that may lead to unreasonably small discretization errors.

Weinmeister, Justin↗

DOE OSTI2026

First operation of superconducting quantum bits as particle detectors

Transmon qubits are among the leading technologies for the development of future quantum computers. However these superconducting devices are sensitive to ionizing radiation, which reduces their coherence time and leads to correlated errors. This study represents the first quantitative estimation of cosmic rays and ambient radiation impact on transmon qubits. In the shielded underground facility at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS), errors induced by the interaction of a radioactive source were reconstructed with an efficiency of about 10%. In contrast, in the unshielded above-ground facility at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), cosmic and ambient radiation impacts were detected with an efficiency ranging from 10% to 20% by modifying the acquisition protocol. Lastly, the simultaneous readout of three transmons in coincidence was demonstrated, achieving an event reconstruction efficiency of 90% when the devices were illuminated with an LED.

Bonomo, Camilla [Rome U.; INFN, Rome]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generating Uncertainty Distributions for Seismic Signal Onset Times

Signal arrival-time estimation plays a critical role in a variety of downstream seismic analyses, including location estimation and source characterization. Any arrival-time errors propagate through subsequent data-processing results. In this article, we detail a general framework for refining estimated seismic signal arrival times along with full estimation of their associated uncertainty. Using the standard short-term average/long-term average threshold algorithm to identify a search window, we demonstrate how to refine the pick estimate through two different approaches. In both cases, new waveform realizations are generated through bootstrap algorithms to produce full a posteriori estimates of uncertainty of onset arrival time of the seismic signal. The onset arrival uncertainty estimates provide additional data-derived information from the signal and have the potential to influence seismic analysis along several fronts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solar Contamination in Extreme-precision Radial-velocity Measurements: Deleterious Effects and Prospects for Mitigation

Solar contamination, due to moonlight and atmospheric scattering of sunlight, can cause systematic errors in stellar radial velocity (RV) measurements that significantly detract from the ∼10 cm s{sup −1} sensitivity required for the detection and characterization of terrestrial exoplanets in or near habitable zones of Sun-like stars. The addition of low-level spectral contamination at variable effective velocity offsets introduces systematic noise when measuring velocities using classical mask-based or template-based cross-correlation techniques. Here we present simulations estimating the range of RV measurement error induced by uncorrected scattered sunlight contamination. We explore potential correction techniques, using both simultaneous spectrometer sky fibers and broadband imaging via coherent fiber imaging bundles, that could reliably reduce this source of error to below the photon-noise limit of typical stellar observations. We discuss the limitations of these simulations, the underlying assumptions, and mitigation mechanisms. We also present and discuss the components designed and built into the NEID (NN-EXPLORE Exoplanet Investigations with Doppler spectroscopy) precision RV instrument for the WIYN 3.5 m telescope, to serve as an ongoing resource for the community to explore and evaluate correction techniques. We emphasize that while “bright time” has been traditionally adequate for RV science, the goal of 10 cm s{sup −1} precision on the most interesting exoplanetary systems may necessitate access to darker skies for these next-generation instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty reduction in residual stress measurements by an optimised inverse solution using nonconsecutive polynomials

Many destructive methods for measuring residual stresses such as the slitting method require an inverse analysis to solve the problem. The accuracy of the result as well as an uncertainty component (the model uncertainty) depends on the basis functions used in the inverse solution. The use of a series expansion as the basis functions for the inverse solution was analysed in a previous work for the particular case where functions orders grew consecutively. The present work presents a new estimation of the model uncertainty and a new improved methodology to select the final basis functions for the case where the basis is composed of polynomials. Including nonconsecutive polynomial orders in the basis generates a larger space of possible solutions to be evaluated and allows the possibility to include higher-order polynomials. The paper includes a comparison with two other inverse analyses methodologies applied to synthetically generated data. With the new methodology, the final error is reduced and the uncertainty estimation improved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deep nonparametric estimation of operators between infinite dimensional spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Erratum: “Tripling the Census of Dwarf AGN Candidates Using DESI Early Data” (2025, ApJ, 982, 10)

We identified an error in the EmFit code, which was employed to estimate the emission-line fluxes and widths used in the published article. Specifically, the error spectrum was not corrected for Galactic reddening before being incorporated into the fitting process. Although this does not affect the measured fluxes or line widths, it led to underestimated uncertainties. Consequently, the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for individual sources were systematically overestimated, resulting in a larger number of sources satisfying a given SNR threshold.

Pucha, Ragadeepika [University of Utah, Salt Lake ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗