Results for “Error estimation” — Page 29

NASA NTRS1986

Interaction of the equatorial midnight pressure bulge and thermospheric zonal winds

The zonal component of the thermospheric neutral wind in the equatorial region is found to flow eastward all night, having a minimum near midnight. The data, obtained by Spencer et al. on the Dynamics Explorer-2 (DE-2) satellite, and reported more recently by Wharton et al., indicate that the minimum feature is significant. The minimum is illustrated by a 4th order Fourier series fit to the data points reported by Wharton et al. A table gives the amplitudes and phases of the four harmonic components used with the estimated error for each amplitude. It is asked whether this behavior is due to the local passage of the equatorial midnight pressure bulge associated with the midnight temperature anomaly. If so, it is to be expected that other data characterizing the midnight temperature anomaly should show consistency with this observation, especially in view of the large changes observed in the zonal velocity in the midnight sector. Consistency in momentum conservation may be checked using available data from previous independent experiments. Such data, taken under similar conditions of solar activity, was substituted into the momentum equation and found to be consistent using a priori estimates of the effect of viscosity.

Herrero, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Parallel Estimation and Control Architectures for Deep-Space Formation Flying Spacecraft

The formation flying of precisely controlled spacecraft in deep space can be used to implement optical instruments capable of imaging planets in other solar systems. The distance of the formation from Earth necessitates a significant level of autonomy and each spacecraft must base its actions on its estimates of the location and velocity of the other spacecraft. Precise coordination and control is the key requirement in such missions and the flow of information between spacecraft must be carefully designed. Doing this in an efficient and optimal manner requires novel techniques for the design of the on-board estimators. The use of standard Kalman filter-based designs can lead to unanticipated dynamics--which we refer to as disagreement dynamics--in the estimators' errors. We show how communication amongst the spacecraft can be designed in order to control all of the dynamics within the formation. We present several results relating the topology of the communication network to the resulting closed-loop control dynamics of the formation. The consequences for the design of the control, communication and coordination are discussed.

distributed control↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Gas Turbine Engines↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Gas Turbine Engines↗

NASA NTRS2016

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Diagnosis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic signal recovery in distribution grids using compressive lossy measurements

Distribution system state estimation requires reliable aggregation of the measured data. However, the large volume of the measured data imposes a significant stress on the underlying communication infrastructure. With the challenges associated with measurement availability, current distribution systems are typically unobservable. To cope with the unobservability issue, compressive sensing theory allows us to recover system state information from a small number of measurements provided the states of the distribution system exhibit sparsity. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of an updated Kalman filtered modified compressive sensing (KF-ModCS) technique that dynamically estimates the grid states using a small fraction of measured data. In practice, measurements used for sparsity based state estimation may also be intermittent due to communication network induced losses. Further, to understand the effect of packet losses on KF-ModCS, we provide an upper bound for the expected variances of the state estimation error for a given rate of information loss. This upper bound is further improved if the support set of the sparse signal that characterizes the state dynamics does not change over time and/or the reduced model is observable. Simulations based on two practical data sets collected from actual customers in a distribution grid validate the theoretical results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2019

Adjoint-Based Anisotropic Mesh Adaptation for a Stabilized Finite-Element Flow Solver

An adjoint solver is implemented in the FUN3D stabilized finite-element flow solver. The adjoint solution is used to generate anisotropic, adapted meshes to control error in scalar out- put functionals, such as lift or drag coefficient. The inviscid and turbulent adjoints are verified with a finite-difference derivative approximation and can be used in design optimization in addition to mesh adaptation. The adjoint capability represents an extension of previous research using the FUN3D stabilized finite-element capability with metric-based mesh adaptation and interpolation-based error estimates to generate highly anisotropic adapted meshes for turbulent flows. In the present work, a metric-based approach is again utilized, where the adjoint and the primal solutions both contribute to the generation of a metric tensor field that is subsequently used to produce the required anisotropic mesh for each adaptation cycle. Adaptive results are then shown for an inviscid supersonic flow over a diamond airfoil, inviscid transonic flow over the ONERA M6 wing, and viscous laminar flow over the NACA 0012 airfoil, all using drag force as the output functional. Adjoint-based adaptation is compared with a multiscale solution-based approach that controls the L norm of Mach number interpolation error to demonstrate the effectiveness and effciency of the adjoint-based adaptive mesh technology.

Balan, Aravind↗

DOE OSTI2020

A robust dynamic state estimation approach against model errors caused by load changes

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) plays an important role in power system security monitoring and online control. In practice, there are two approaches to implementing DSE. The first approach is distributed DSE, which is based on the assumption that the terminal bus of each generator can be measured by PMUs (phasor measurement units). The assumption cannot be satisfied currently, however, because PMUs usually are installed at important high-voltage buses such as 500-kV buses installed in portions of the grid overseen by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Another issue of this approach is that performance of DSE is vulnerable to bad measurement data. The reason for this vulnerability is that DSE is performed separately through measurements at each terminal bus, and measurements at terminal buses are the only measurement upon which DSE can rely. Therefore, important redundant measurements are not included in this approach. The second approach is centralized DSE. This approach does not have the requirement for PMU location, and redundant measurements can be considered fully. However, load changes and grid topology changes impact centralized DSE. In this paper, we propose a new approach for handling the impact of load changes on DSE. We have developed a new algorithm that includes two sequential steps. In the first step, errors caused by load changes are detected by analyzing the difference between prediction results and measured results. In the second step, once model error is detected, a model optimization procedure is run to correct the error so the state estimation error can be mitigated. Simulation results from the IEEE 68 bus system show that the proposed approach can effectively handle model errors caused by load changes.

robust dynamic state estimation, load change, powe↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Impact of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles on Short-term Weather Forecasts

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced spacebased atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AlRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used to retrieve temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers under both clear and partly cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived humidity profiles is 15% in 2 km layers. Critical to the successful use of AIRS profiles for weather and climate studies is the use of profile quality indicators and error estimates provided with each profile Aside form monitoring changes in Earth's climate, one of the objectives of AIRS is to provide sounding information of sufficient accuracy such that the assimilation of the new observations, especially in data sparse region, will lead to an improvement in weather forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate highresolution AIRS profile data in a regional analysis/forecast model. The paper will focus on the impact of AIRS profiles on a rapidly developing east coast storm and will also discuss preliminary results for a 30-day forecast period, simulating a quasi-operation environment. Temperature and moisture profiles were obtained from the prototype version 5.0 EOS science team retrieval algorithm which includes explicit error information for each profile. The error profile information was used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for every profile location and pressure level for assimilation into the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The AIRS-enhanced analyses were used as initial fields for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system used by the SPORT project for regional weather forecast studies. The ADASWRF system will be run on CONUS domain with an emphasis on the east coast. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, intelligent use of the quality indicators, and forecast verification.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

NASA NTRS1990

Dynamical reference frames in the planetary and earth-moon systems

Estimates of the accuracies of the ephemerides are reviewed using data for planetary and lunar systems to determine the efficacy of the inherent dynamical reference frame. The varied observational data are listed and given with special attention given to ephemeris improvements. The importance of ranging data is discussed with respect to the inner four planets and the moon, and the discrepancy of 1 arcsec/century between mean motions determined by optical observations versus ranging data is addressed. The Viking mission data provide inertial mean motions for the earth and Mars of 0.003 arcsec/century which will deteriorate to 0.01 arcsec after about 10 years. Uncertainties for other planets and the moon are found to correspond to approximately the same level of degradation. In general the data measurements and error estimates are improving the ephemerides, although refitting the data cannot account for changes in mean motion.

Standish, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Guaranteeing Failsafe Operation of Extended-Scene Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor Algorithm

A Shack-Hartmann sensor (SHS) is an optical instrument consisting of a lenslet array and a camera. It is widely used for wavefront sensing in optical testing and astronomical adaptive optics. The camera is placed at the focal point of the lenslet array and points at a star or any other point source. The image captured is an array of spot images. When the wavefront error at the lenslet array changes, the position of each spot measurably shifts from its original position. Determining the shifts of the spot images from their reference points shows the extent of the wavefront error. An adaptive cross-correlation (ACC) algorithm has been developed to use scenes as well as point sources for wavefront error detection. Qualifying an extended scene image is often not an easy task due to changing conditions in scene content, illumination level, background, Poisson noise, read-out noise, dark current, sampling format, and field of view. The proposed new technique based on ACC algorithm analyzes the effects of these conditions on the performance of the ACC algorithm and determines the viability of an extended scene image. If it is viable, then it can be used for error correction; if it is not, the image fails and will not be further processed. By potentially testing for a wide variety of conditions, the algorithm s accuracy can be virtually guaranteed. In a typical application, the ACC algorithm finds image shifts of more than 500 Shack-Hartmann camera sub-images relative to a reference sub -image or cell when performing one wavefront sensing iteration. In the proposed new technique, a pair of test and reference cells is selected from the same frame, preferably from two well-separated locations. The test cell is shifted by an integer number of pixels, say, for example, from m= -5 to 5 along the x-direction by choosing a different area on the same sub-image, and the shifts are estimated using the ACC algorithm. The same is done in the y-direction. If the resulting shift estimate errors are less than a pre-determined threshold (e.g., 0.03 pixel), the image is accepted. Otherwise, it is rejected.

Sidick, Erikin↗

NASA NTRS2010

The SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) Product

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission is being developed by NASA for launch in 2013 as one of four first-tier missions recommended by the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space in 2007. The primary science objectives of SMAP are to enhance understanding of land surface controls on the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to determine their linkages. Moreover, the high resolution soil moisture mapping provided by SMAP has practical applications in weather and seasonal climate prediction, agriculture, human health, drought and flood decision support. In this paper we describe the assimilation of SMAP observations for the generation of the planned SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product. The SMAP mission makes simultaneous active (radar) and passive (radiometer) measurements in the 1.26-1.43 GHz range (L-band) from a sun-synchronous low-earth orbit. Measurements will be obtained across a 1000 km wide swath using conical scanning at a constant incidence angle (40 deg). The radar resolution varies from 1-3 km over the outer 70% of the swath to about 30 km near the center of the swath. The radiometer resolution is 40 km across the entire swath. The radiometer measurements will allow high-accuracy but coarse resolution (40 km) measurements. The radar measurements will add significantly higher resolution information. The radar is however very sensitive to surface roughness and vegetation structure. The combination of the two measurements allows optimal blending of the advantages of each instrument. SMAP directly observes only surface soil moisture (in the top 5 cm of the soil column). Several of the key applications targeted by SMAP, however, require knowledge of root zone soil moisture (approximately top 1 m of the soil column), which is not directly measured by SMAP. The foremost objective of the SMAP L4_SM product is to fill this gap and provide estimates of root zone soil moisture that are informed by and consistent with SMAP observations. Such estimates are obtained by merging SMAP observations with estimates from a land surface model in a soil moisture data assimilation system. The land surface model component of the assimilation system is driven with observations-based surface meteorological forcing data, including precipitation, which is the most important driver for soil moisture. The model also encapsulates knowledge of key land surface processes, including the vertical transfer of soil moisture between the surface and root zone reservoirs. Finally, the model interpolates and extrapolates SMAP observations in time and in space. The L4_SM product thus provides a comprehensive and consistent picture of land surface hydrological conditions based on SMAP observations and complementary information from a variety of sources. The assimilation algorithm considers the respective uncertainties of each component and yields a product that is superior to satellite or model data alone. Error estimates for the L4_SM product are generated as a by-product of the data assimilation system.

Reichle, Rolf↗

NASA NTRS2005

NASA's Global Precipitation Mission Ground Validation Segment

NASA is designing a Ground Validation Segment (GVS) as one of its contributions to the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The GPM GVS provides an independent means for evaluation, diagnosis, and ultimately improvement of the GPM spaceborne measurements and precipitation products. NASA's GPM GVS concept calls for a combination of direct observations executed within a Multidimensional Observing Volume (MOV) and model-based analyses executed by a Satellite Simulator Model (SSM). The MOV consists of ground-based instruments that measure local surface and atmospheric properties required for GPM validation. The SSM utilizes MOV measurements in a forward numerical model. The goal of the SSM forward modeling is calculation of the following properties: top-of-atmosphere microwave radiative quantities to within sensor noise of those measured by the GPM Core Satellite, precipitation quantities identical to those generated by the standard GPM precipitation retrieval algorithms, and quantitative/objective error estimates of both sets of quantities. At present, the GVS is in the early design stage and various scenarios have been generated to assess how it will be used in the GPM era. The GPM GVS will be operational in the year prior to the launch of the GPM core satellite, which has a launch date scheduled for December 2010.

GVS (GROUND VALIDATION SEGMENT)↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Scalable Meter Placement Method for Distribution System State Estimation

This paper studies the optimal meter placement problem for distribution system state estimation given limited measurement resources. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer semi-definite programming that minimizes the worst case estimation errors over a set of operating points. To solve the problem, we first relax the problem as a convex optimization problem. Motivated by the lack of scalability of existing solvers, we next leverage the special structure of the cost function and propose an algorithm based on barrier method that solves the problem with significantly better numerical performance. The proposed method has been validated on the IEEE 13-bus, IEEE 123-bus, and IEEE 8,500-bus feeders.

barrier method↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wireless Patch Antenna Characterization for Live Health Monitoring Using Machine Learning

Temperature monitoring in extreme environments, such as coal-fired power plants, was addressed by designing and testing wireless patch antennas for use in machine learning-aided temperature estimation. The sensors were designed to monitor the temperature and health of boiler systems. Wireless interrogation of the sensor was performed using a Vector Network Analyzer (VNA) and a pair of interrogation antennas to capture resonance behavior under varying thermal and spatial conditions with sensitivities ranging from 0.052 to 0.20 $\frac{𝑀𝐻𝑧}{°C}$. Sensor calibration was conducted using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, which leveraged temporal patterns to account for hysteresis effects. The calibration method demonstrated improved performance when combined with an LSTM model, achieving up to a 76% improvement in temperature estimation error when compared with Linear Regression (LR). The experiments highlighted an innovative solution for patch antenna-based non-contact temperature measurement, which addresses limitations with conventional methods such as RFID-based systems, infrared, and thermocouples.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Far-ultraviolet photometry of the globular cluster omega Cen

We present far-ultraviolet images of the globular cluster omega Centauri obtained with the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) during the 1990 December Astro-1 mission. A total of 1957 sources are detected at 1620 A to a limiting ultraviolet (UV) magnitude of 16.4 in the central 24 min diameter region of the field and a limit of 15.6 over the remainder of the 40 min diameter field. Over 1400 of these sources are matched with stars on a Stroemgren u band charge coupled devices (CCD) frame obtained with the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) 0.9 m telescope to produce a (far-UV, u) color-magnitude diagram (CMD). Completeness of the sample and error estimates are determined by photometry of artificial stars added to the images. The horizontal branch (HB) of the CMD is heavily populated hotter than 9000 K. A large number of 'extreme HB' stars are found hotter than a conspicuous break in the HB at T(sub e) approximately 16000 K. There is also a significant population of stars above the HB, the brightest of which is 4 mag brighter than the HB. Most of the hotter of these appear to be 'AGB-manque' or 'Post-Early Asymptotic Giant Branch' stars. We compare the observations to recent theoretical evolutionary tracks for the zero-age HB and subsequent phases. The tracks match the data well, with the exception of the hotter HB stars, many of which fall below the zero-age horizontal branch. It is unclear as yet whether these are a special population or an artifact of errors in the models or photometry. We identify 33 stars with T(sub e) greater than or approximately = 50000 K, which are hotter than zero-age HB stars with envelope masses of 0.003 solar mass.

Whitney, Jonathan H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of sampling frequency and estimation method on phosphorus load uncertainty in the Western Lake Erie Basin, Ohio, USA

Accurate estimates of nutrient loads are necessary to identify critical source areas and quantify the impact of management practices on pollutant export. Previous studies have investigated nutrient load estimate uncertainty, but they often focus on nutrient loads estimated using an interpolation method for large-scale watersheds with short-term datasets. The study objective was to quantify uncertainty in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS) load estimates from two small (<10 3 km 2 ) agricultural watersheds in the western Lake Erie Basin resulting from different sampling frequencies. Each watershed had high temporal resolution datasets of discharge (15 min) and nutrient concentration (1 to 3 samples per day) collected over a 30-year period (1990–2020). Firstly, SRP, TP, and SS loads were calculated using the high temporal resolution datasets, which was assumed as “true loads”. Secondly, the high temporal concentration data were decomposed to semiweekly, weekly, biweekly, and monthly sampling and annual loads were estimated using four common load estimation methods to assess the effect of sampling frequency and load estimation method on load estimate error. Across the four different methods, the composite method had the lowest relative root mean square and absolute bias, but the rectangular interpolation method was the most precise. Furthermore, even with semiweekly sampling, the composite method resulted in an unacceptable level of precision (average imprecision = 39 %), while the interpolation method resulted in an unacceptable bias (average absolute bias = 16 %). Because neither method could provide acceptable accuracy and precision at the lowest decrease in sampling (e.t. semiweekly sampling), continued daily sampling is recommended in these watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lepton–Nucleus Interactions within Microscopic Approaches

This review paper emphasizes the significance of microscopic calculations with quantified theoretical error estimates in studying lepton–nucleus interactions and their implications for electron scattering and accelerator neutrino oscillation measurements. We investigate two approaches: Green’s Function Monte Carlo and the extended factorization scheme, utilizing realistic nuclear target spectral functions. In our study, we include relativistic effects in Green’s Function Monte Carlo and validate the inclusive electron scattering cross section on carbon using available data. We compare the flux-folded cross sections for neutrino-carbon scattering with T2K and MINER$v$ A experiments, noting the substantial impact of relativistic effects in reducing the theoretical curve strength when compared to MINER$v$ A data. Additionally, we demonstrate that quantum Monte Carlo-based spectral functions accurately reproduce the quasi-elastic region in electron scattering data and T2K flux-folded cross sections. By comparing results from Green’s Function Monte Carlo and the spectral function approach, which share a similar initial target state description, we quantify errors associated with approximations in the factorization scheme and the relativistic treatment of kinematics in Green’s Function Monte Carlo.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗