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At least 523 records · Page 29

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗

A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition Part II: Statistical Performance of the Cyclone Phase Space

This study analyzes the differences between an objective, automated identification of tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo extratropical transition (ET), and the designation of ET determined subjectively by human forecasters in best-track data in all basins globally. The objective identification of ET is based on the cyclone phase space (CPS), calculated from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) or the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The resulting classification into “ET storms” and “non-ET storms” underlies the global climatology of ET presented in Part I of this study. Here, the authors investigate how well the CPS classifications agree with those in the best-track records calculated from JRA-55 or from ERA-Interim data. According to F1 scores and Matthews correlation coefficients (MCCs), the classification of ET storms in the CPS agrees best with the best-track classification in the Western North Pacific (MCC > 0.7) and the North Atlantic (MCC > 0.5). In other basins, the correlation between the CPS classification and the best-track classification is only slightly higher than that of a random classification. The JRA-55 classification achieves higher performance scores than does the ERA-Interim classification, and the differences are statistically significant in all basins. The lower performance of ERA-Interim is mainly due to a higher false alarm rate, particularly in the Eastern North Pacific. Overall, the results show that while the CPS-based classifications are good enough to be useful for many purposes, there is almost certainly room for improvement – in the representation of the storms in reanalyses, in our objective metrics of ET, and in our scientific understanding of the ET process.

Melanie Bieli↗

Evaluation of long-term Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent products

Nine gridded Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) products were evaluated as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Satellite Snow Product Intercomparison and Evaluation Exercise (SnowPEx). Three categories of datasets were assessed: (1) those utilizing some form of reanalysis (the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 – GLDAS-2; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim land surface reanalysis – ERA-Interim/Land and ERA5; the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 1 (MERRA) and version 2 (MERRA-2); the Crocus snow model driven by ERA-Interim meteorology – Crocus); (2) passive microwave remote sensing combined with daily surface snow depth observations (ESA GlobSnow v2.0); and (3) stand-alone passive microwave retrievals (NASA AMSR-E SWE versions 1.0 and 2.0) which do not utilize surface snow observations. Evaluation included validation against independent snow course measurements from Russia, Finland, and Canada and product intercomparison through the calculation of spatial and temporal correlations in SWE anomalies. The stand-alone passive microwave SWE products (AMSR-E v1.0 and v2.0 SWE) exhibit low spatial and temporal correlations to other products and RMSE nearly double the best performing product. Constraining passive microwave retrievals with surface observations (GlobSnow) provides performance comparable to the reanalysis-based products; RMSE over Finland and Russia for all but the AMSR-E products is ∼50 mm or less, with the exception of ERA-Interim/Land over Russia. Using a seven-dataset ensemble that excluded the stand-alone passive microwave products reduced the RMSE by 10 mm (20 %) and increased the correlation from 0.67 to 0.78 compared to any individual product. The overall performance of the best multiproduct combinations is still at the margins of acceptable uncertainty for scientific and operational requirements; only through combined and integrated improvements in remote sensing, modeling, and observations will real progress in SWE product development be achieved.

Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) pr↗

Differences in Tropical High Clouds Among Reanalyses: Origins and Radiative Impacts

We examine differences among reanalysis highcloud products in the tropics, assess the impacts of these differences on radiation budgets at the top of the atmosphere and within the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), and discuss their possible origins in the context of the reanalysis models. We focus on the ERA5 (fifthgeneration European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts – ECMWF – reanalysis), ERA-Interim (ECMWF Interim Reanalysis), JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2), and CFSR/CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis/Climate Forecast System Version 2) reanalyses. As a general rule, JRA-55 produces the smallest tropical high-cloud fractions and cloud water contents among the reanalyses, while MERRA-2 produces the largest. Accordingly, long-wave cloud radiative effects are relatively weak in JRA-55 and relatively strong in MERRA-2. Only MERRA-2 and ERA5 among the reanalyses produce tropical-mean values of outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) close to those observed, but ERA5 tends to underestimate cloud effects, while MERRA-2 tends to overestimate variability. ERA5 also produces distributions of longwave, short-wave, and total cloud radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere that are very consistent with those observed. The other reanalyses all exhibit substantial biases in at least one of these metrics, although compensation between the long-wave and short-wave effects helps to constrain biases in the total cloud radiative effect for most reanalyses. The vertical distribution of cloud water content emerges as a key difference between ERA-Interim and other reanalyses. Whereas ERA-Interim shows a monotonic decrease of cloud water content with increasing height, the other reanalyses all produce distinct anvil layers. The latter is in better agreement with observations and yields very different profiles of radiative heating in the UTLS. For example, whereas the altitude of the level of zero net radiative heating tends to be lower in convective regions than in the rest of the tropics in ERAInterim, the opposite is true for the other four reanalyses. Differences in cloud water content also help to explain systematic differences in radiative heating in the tropical lower stratosphere among the reanalyses. We discuss several ways in which aspects of the cloud and convection schemes impact the tropical environment. Discrepancies in the vertical profiles of temperature and specific humidity in convective regions are particularly noteworthy, as these variables are directly constrained by data assimilation, are widely used, and feed back to convective behaviour through their relationships with thermodynamic stability.

High Clouds↗

Where Does the Irrigation Water Go? An Estimate of the Contribution of Irrigation to Precipitation Using MERRA

Irrigation is an important human activity that may impact local and regional climate, but current climate model simulations and data assimilation systems generally do not explicitly include it. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows more irrigation signal in surface evapotranspiration (ET) than the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) because ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture according to the observed surface temperature and humidity while MERRA has no explicit consideration of irrigation at the surface. But, when compared with the results from a hydrological model with detailed considerations of agriculture, the ET from both reanalyses show large deficiencies in capturing the impact of irrigation. Here, a back-trajectory method is used to estimate the contribution of irrigation to precipitation over local and surrounding regions, using MERRA with observation-based corrections and added irrigation-caused ET increase from the hydrological model. Results show substantial contributions of irrigation to precipitation over heavily irrigated regions in Asia, but the precipitation increase is much less than the ET increase over most areas, indicating that irrigation could lead to water deficits over these regions. For the same increase in ET, precipitation increases are larger over wetter areas where convection is more easily triggered, but the percentage increase in precipitation is similar for different areas. There are substantial regional differences in the patterns of irrigation impact, but, for all the studied regions, the highest percentage contribution to precipitation is over local land.

ERA-Interim↗

Galileo spacecraft modal identification using an eigensystem realization algorithm

A modal parameter identification technique referred to as the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) was applied to free-response measurements from the Galileo spacecraft modal survey test. The data were recorded following single-point random excitation of the structure. This work is one phase in a research project coordinated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to compare the performance of various contemporary identification techniques using Galileo data. Principal emphasis is placed on estimating the accuracy of the ERA-identified modal parameters. Various accuracy indicators, such as Modal Amplitude Coherence and Modal Phase Collinearity, are discussed. More than 20 modes of the spacecraft were identified, demonstrating the ability of the ERA method to determine the dynamics of such complex structures using only a few seconds of test data.

Pappa, R. S.↗

An eigensystem realization algorithm using data correlations (ERA/DC) for modal parameter identification

A modification to the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) for modal parameter identification is presented in this paper. The ERA minimum order realization approach using singular value decomposition is combined with the philosophy of the Correlation Fit method in state space form such that response data correlations rather than actual response values are used for modal parameter identification. This new method, the ERA using data correlations (ERA/DC), reduces bias errors due to noise corruption significantly without the need for model overspecification. This method is tested using simulated five-degree-of-freedom system responses corrupted by measurement noise. It is found for this case that, when model overspecification is permitted and a minimum order solution obtained via singular value truncation, the results from the two methods are of similar quality.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

Life sciences - On the critical path for missions of exploration

Life sciences are important and critical to the safety and success of manned and long-duration space missions. The life science issues covered include gravitational physiology, space radiation, medical care delivery, environmental maintenance, bioregenerative systems, crew and human factors within and outside the spacecraft. The history of the role of life sciences in the space program is traced from the Apollo era, through the Skylab era to the Space Shuttle era. The life science issues of the space station program and manned missions to the moon and Mars are covered.

Sulzman, Frank M.↗

Next generation earth-to-orbit space transportation systems: Unmanned vehicles and liquid/hybrid boosters

The United States civil space effort when viewed from a launch vehicle perspective tends to categorize into pre-Shuttle and Shuttle eras. The pre-Shuttle era consisted of expendable launch vehicles where a broad set of capabilities were matured in a range of vehicles, followed by a clear reluctance to build on and utilize those systems. The Shuttle era marked the beginning of the U.S. venture into reusable space launch vehicles and the consolidation of launch systems used to this one vehicle. This led to a tremendous capability, but utilized men on a few missions where it was not essential and compromised launch capability resiliency in the long term. Launch vehicle failures, between the period of Aug. 1985 and May 1986, of the Titan 34D, Shuttle Challenger, and the Delta vehicles resulted in a reassessment of U.S. launch vehicle capability. The reassessment resulted in President Reagan issuing a new National Space Policy in 1988 calling for more coordination between Federal agencies, broadening the launch capabilities and preparing for manned flight beyond the Earth into the solar system. As a result, the Department of Defense (DoD) and NASA are jointly assessing the requirements and needs for this nations's future transportation system. Reliability/safety, balanced fleet, and resiliency are the cornerstone to the future. An insight is provided into the current thinking in establishing future unmanned earth-to-orbit (ETO) space transportation needs and capabilities. A background of previous launch capabilities, future needs, current and proposed near term systems, and system considerations to assure future mission need will be met, are presented. The focus is on propulsion options associated with unmanned cargo vehicles and liquid booster required to assure future mission needs will be met.

Hueter, Uwe↗

An optimal estimation approach for enhanced identification of large space structures

A very robust technique for the realization/identification of structural dynamic systems is presented. This methodology combines the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) and minimum model error (MME) techniques to develop an extremely robust algorithm able to distinguish modes whose amplitudes are small fractions of the noise amplitude. As the amplitude of the noise grows, the enhanced robustness of the combined ERA/MME algorithm becomes more significant. This is a result of the MME being able to produce simulated measurements of much greater accuracy than the original measurements, for input to the ERA. The new method was able to determine correct model order at noise levels many times higher than the original ERA for the realization problem in which the model order must be derived.

Mook, D. Joseph↗

Eigensystem realization algorithm modal identification experiences with mini-mast

This paper summarizes work performed under a collaborative research effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the German Aerospace Research Establishment (DLR, Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fur Luft- und Raumfahrt). The objective is to develop and demonstrate system identification technology for future large space structures. Recent experiences using the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA), for modal identification of Mini-Mast, are reported. Mini-Mast is a 20 m long deployable space truss used for structural dynamics and active vibration-control research at the Langley Research Center. A comprehensive analysis of 306 frequency response functions (3 excitation forces and 102 displacement responses) was performed. Emphasis is placed on two topics of current research: (1) gaining an improved understanding of ERA performance characteristics (theory vs. practice); and (2) developing reliable techniques to improve identification results for complex experimental data. Because of nonlinearities and numerous local modes, modal identification of Mini-Mast proved to be surprisingly difficult. Methods were available, ERA, for obtaining detailed, high-confidence results.

Pappa, Richard S.↗

Variance and bias computations for improved modal identification using ERA/DC

Variance and bias confidence criteria were recently developed for the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) identification technique. These criteria are extended for the modified version of ERA based on data correlation, ERA/DC, and also for the Q-Markov cover algorithm. The importance and usefulness of the variance and bias information are demonstrated in numerical studies. The criteria are shown to be very effective not only by indicating the accuracy of the identification results, especially in terms of confidence intervals, but also by helping the ERA user to obtain better results by seeing the effect of changing the sample time, adjusting the Hankel matrix dimension, choosing how many singular values to retain, deciding the model order, etc.

Longman, Richard W.↗

Research objectives, opportunities, and facilities for microgravity science

Microgravity Science in the U.S.A. involves research in fluids science, combustion science, materials science, biotechnology, and fundamental physics. The purpose is to achieve a thorough understanding of the effects of gravitational body forces on physical phenomena relevant to those disciplines. This includes the study of phenomena which are usually overwhelmed by the presence of gravitational body forces and, therefore, chiefly manifested when gravitational forces are weak. In the pragmatic sense, the research involves gravity level as an experimental parameter. Calendar year 1992 is a landmark year for research opportunities in low earth orbit for Microgravity Science. For the first time ever, three Spacelab flights will fly in a single year: IML-1 was launched on January 22; USML-1 was launched on June 25; and, in September, SL-J will be launched. A separate flight involving two cargo bay carriers, USMP-1, will be launched in October. From the beginning of 1993 up to and including the Space Station era (1997), nine flights involving either Spacelab or USMP carriers will be flown. This will be augmented by a number of middeck payloads and get away specials flying on various flights. All of this activity sets the stage for experimentation on Space Station Freedom. Beginning in 1997, experiments in Microgravity Science will be conducted on the Space Station. Facilities for doing experiments in protein crystal growth, solidification, and biotechnology will all be available. These will be joined by middeck-class payloads and the microgravity glove box for conducting additional experiments. In 1998, a new generation protein crystal growth facility and a facility for conducting combustion research will arrive. A fluids science facility and additional capability for conducting research in solidification, as well as an ability to handle small payloads on a quick response basis, will be added in 1999. The year 2000 will see upgrades in the protein crystal growth and fluids science facilities. From the beginning of 1997 to the fall of 1999 (the 'man-tended capability' era), there will be two or three utilization flights per year. Plans call for operations in Microgravity Science during utilization flights and between utilization flights. Experiments conducted during utilization flights will characteristically require crew interaction, short duration, and less sensitivity to perturbations in the acceleration environment. Operations between utilization flights will involve experiments that can be controlled remotely and/or can be automated. Typically, the experiments will require long times and a pristine environment. Beyond the fall of 1999 (the 'permanently-manned capability' era), some payloads will require crew interaction; others will be automated and will make use of telescience.

Bayuzick, Robert J.↗

Thermal evolution of neutron stars with internal frictional heating

It has been suggested that the frictional interaction of neutron superfluids with normal matter in the inner crust of neutron stars dissipates rotational energy of superfluids and generates heat. Incorporating a general formula of internal heating into the detailed numerical codes of thermal evolution, we examine the effects of the internal heating on thermal evolution of neutron stars. We find that when a very stiff equation of state is used, it takes as long as about 2 x 10 exp 4 yr for the interior of a neutron star to reach the isothermal state, even if a strong heat source is placed in a thin layer of the inner crust. This time scale reduces to a few hundred years or less when medium to soft equations of state are used. A neutron star cools by neutrino emissions during the earlier stages referred to as the neutrino cooling era, while during the later photon cooling era it cools primarily by emission of photons from its surface. We show that heating rates expected in the current superfluid-crust interaction model can greatly increase the surface temperature in the photon cooling era, significantly changing the thermal evolution of relatively old neutron stars if a stiff equation of state is adopted.

Umeda, Hideyuki↗

Constraints on the Martian cratering rate imposed by the SNC meteorites and Vallis Marineris layered deposits

Following two independent lines of evidence -- estimates of the age and formation time of a portion of the Martian geologic column exposed in the layered deposits and the crystallization and ejection ages of the SNC meteorites -- it appears that the Martian cratering rate must be double the lunar rate or even higher. This means models such as NHII or NHIII (Neukum and Hiller models II and III), which estimate the Martian cratering rate as being several times lunar are probably far closer to reality on Mars than lunar rates. The effect of such a shift is profound: Mars is transformed from a rather Moon-like place into a planet with vigorous dynamics, multiple large impacts, erosion, floods, and volcanism throughout its history. A strong shift upward in cratering rates on Mars apparently solves some glaring problems; however, it creates others. The period of time during which Earth-like atmospheric conditions existed, the liquid water era on Mars, persists in NHIII up to only 0.5 b.y. ago. Scenarios of extended Earth-like conditions on Mars have been discounted in the past because they would have removed many of the craters from the early bombardment era found in the south. It does appear that some process of crater removal was quite vigorous in the north during Mars' past. Evidence exists that the northern plains may have been the home of long-lived seas or perhaps even a paleo-ocean, so models exist for highly localized destruction of craters in the north. However, the question of how the ancient crater population could be preserved in the south under a long liquid-water era found in any high-cratering-rate models is a serious question that must be addressed. It does appear to be a higher-order problem because it involves low-energy dynamics acting in localized areas, i.e., erosion of craters in the south of Mars, whereas the two problems with the low-cratering-rate models involve high-energy events acting over large areas: the formation of the Vallis Marineris, the SNC ejecting impacts, and the global atmospheric pressure and temperature conditions that allow liquid water to exist as a robust entity anywhere on the Martian surface. In any case, it appears Mars is a more complex and dynamic planet than previously supposed. It has canyons dating from the middle to late period of its history that contain apparent lake sediments bedded deeper than most sediments on Earth. Recent multiple, violent impacts on Mars have apparently provided us with multiple random samples of its surface that all crystallized less than 1.5 b.y. ago. These things cannot be accommodated in our present cratering chronologies of Mars, based on 1x lunar cratering rates, without great difficulties. These difficulties suggest that a new chronology, probably based on NHII or even NHIII, should be adopted; this new chronology will provide us with a new view of Mars as a dynamic planet of rich history.

Brandenburg, J. E.↗

Geminga: A cooling superfluid neutron star

We compare the recent temperature estimate for Geminga with neutron star cooling models. Because of its age (approximately 3.4 x 10(exp 5) yr), Geminga is in the photon cooling era. We show that its surface temperature (approximately 5.2 x 10(exp 5) K) can be understood by both types of neutrino cooling scenarios, i.e., slow neutrino cooling by the modified Urca process or fast neutrino cooling by the direct Urca process or by some exotic matter, and thus does not allow us to discriminate between these two competing schemes. However, for both types of scenarios, agreement with the observed temperature can only be obtained if baryon pairing is present in most, if not all, of the core of the star. Within the slow neutrino cooling scenario, early neutrino cooling is not sufficient to explain the observed low temperature, and extensive pairing in the core is necessary to reduce the specific heat and increase the cooling rate in the present photon cooling era. Within all the fast neutrino cooling scenarios, pairing is necessary throughout the whole core to control the enormous early neutrino emission which, without pairing suppression, would result in a surface temperature at the present time much lower than observed. We also comment on the recent temperature estimates for PSR 0656+14 and PSR 1055-52, which pertain to the same photon cooling era. If one assumes that all neutron stars undergo fast neutrino cooling, then these two objects also provide evidence for extensive baryon pairing in their core; but observational uncertainties also permit a more conservative interpretation, with slow neutrino emission and no pairing at all. We argue though that observational evidence for the slow neutrino cooling model (the 'standard' model) is in fact very dim and that the interpretation of the surface temperature of all neutron stars could be done with a reasonable theoretical a priori within the fast neutrino cooling scenarios only. In this case, Geminga, PSR 0656+14, and PSR 1055-52 all show evidence of baryon pairing down to their very centers.

Page, Dany↗

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Minimum

By definition, the conventional onset for the start of a sunspot cycle is the time when smoothed sunspot number (i.e., the 12-month moving average) has decreased to its minimum value (called minimum amplitude) prior to the rise to its maximum value (called maximum amplitude) for the given sunspot cycle. On the basis (if the modern era sunspot cycles 10-22 and on the presumption that cycle 22 is a short-period cycle having a cycle length of 120 to 126 months (the observed range of short-period modern era cycles), conventional onset for cycle 23 should not occur until sometime between September 1996 and March 1997, certainly between June 1996 and June 1997, based on the 95-percent confidence level deduced from the mean and standard deviation of period for the sample of six short-pei-iod modern era cycles. Also, because the first occurrence of a new cycle, high-latitude (greater than or equal to 25 degrees) spot has always preceded conventional onset of the new cycle by at least 3 months (for the data-available interval of cycles 12-22), conventional onset for cycle 23 is not expected until about August 1996 or later, based on the first occurrence of a new cycle 23, high-latitude spot during the decline of old cycle 22 in May 1996. Although much excitement for an earlier-occurring minimum (about March 1996) for cycle 23 was voiced earlier this year, the present study shows that this exuberance is unfounded. The decline of cycle 22 continues to favor cycle 23 minimum sometime during the latter portion of 1996 to the early portion of 1997.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Autonomous Modal Identification of the Space Shuttle Tail Rudder

Autonomous modal identification automates the calculation of natural vibration frequencies, damping, and mode shapes of a structure from experimental data. This technology complements damage detection techniques that use continuous or periodic monitoring of vibration characteristics. The approach shown in the paper incorporates the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) as a data analysis engine and an autonomous supervisor to condense multiple estimates of modal parameters using ERA's Consistent-Mode Indicator and correlation of mode shapes. The procedure was applied to free-decay responses of a Space Shuttle tail rudder and successfully identified the seven modes of the structure below 250 Hz. The final modal parameters are a condensed set of results for 87 individual ERA cases requiring approximately five minutes of CPU time on a DEC Alpha computer.

Pappa, Richard S.↗