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At least 523 records · Page 29

Performance and economic risk evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power systems by Monte Carlo simulation

A preliminary comparative evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power plants utilizing advanced technologies available in 1985-2000 time frame is under way at JPL. The solar power plants of 50 KWe to 10 MWe size are equipped with two axis tracking parabolic dish concentrator systems operating at temperatures in excess of 1000 F. The energy conversion schemes under consideration include advanced steam, open and closed cycle gas turbines, stirling, and combined cycle. The energy storage systems include advanced batteries, liquid metal, and chemical. This paper outlines a simple methodology for a probabilistic assessment of such systems. Sources of uncertainty in the development of advanced systems are identified, and a computer Monte Carlo simulation is exercised to permit an analysis of the tradeoffs of the risk of failure versus the potential for large gains. Frequency distribution of energy cost for several alternatives are presented.

Manvi, R.↗

A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs

The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

Remer, D. S.↗

Projected techno-economic improvements for advanced solar thermal power plants

The projected characteristics of solar thermal power plants (with outputs up to 10 MWe) employing promising advanced technology subsystems/components are compared to current (or pre-1985) steam-Rankine systems. Improvements accruing to advanced technology development options are delineated. The improvements derived from advanced systems result primarily from achieving high efficiencies via solar collector systems which (1) capture a large portion of the available insolation and (2) concentrate this captured solar flux to attain high temperatures required for high heat engine/energy conversion performance. The most efficient solar collector systems employ two-axis tracking. Attractive systems include the central receiver/heliostat and the parabolic dish.

Fujita, T.↗

Cost models and economical packaging of LSI's

Report discusses mathematical models used to estimate costs of developing and fabricating microcircuits. Second part discusses LSI packaging using tape chip carrier technology.

Himmel, R. P.↗

Economical ultraviolet radiometer

Inexpensive, cosine-corrected radiometer measures ultraviolet radiation. In field use, instrument tests materials for effects of ultraviolet exposure and studies solar-cell degradation. It consists of cup-shaped diaphragm and diffusing dome for corrected response, two filters that select wavelength range, and silicon solar cell. Filters control response within passband of 300 to 400 nm.

Seaman, C. H.↗

Economics of hydrogen production and liquefaction updated to 1980

Revised costs for generating and liquefying hydrogen in mid-1980 are presented. Plant investments were treated as straight-forward escalations resulting from inflation. Operating costs, however, were derived in terms of the unit cost of coal, fuel gas and electrical energy to permit the determination of the influence of these parameters on the cost of liquid hydrogen. Inflationary influence was recognized by requiring a 15% discounted rate of return on investment for Discounted Cash Flow financing analysis, up from 12% previously. Utility financing was revised to require an 11% interest rate on debt. The scope of operation of the hydrogen plant was revised from previous studies to include only the hydrogen generation and liquefaction facilities. On-site fuel gas and power generation, originally a part of the plant complex, was eliminated. Fuel gas and power are now treated as purchased utilities. Costs for on-site generation of fuel gas however, are included.

Baker, C. R.↗

An economic analysis of five selected LANDSAT assisted information systems in Oregon

A comparative cost analysis was performed on five LANDSAT-based information systems. In all cases, the LANDSAT system was found to have cost advantages over its alternative. The information sets generated by LANDSAT and the alternative method are not identical but are comparable in terms of satisfying the needs of the sponsor. The information obtained from the LANDSAT system in some cases is said to lack precision and detail. On the other hand, it was found to be superior in terms of providing information on areas that are inaccessible and unobtainable through conventional means. There is therefore a trade-off between precision and detail, and considerations of costs. The projects examined were concerned with locating irrigation circles in Morrow County; monitoring tansy ragwort infestation; inventoring old growth Douglas fir near Spotted Owl habitats; inventoring vegetation and resources in all state-owned lands; and determining and use for Columbia River water policies.

Solomon, S.↗

Development of economical improved thick film solar cell contact

Metal screened electrodes were investigated with base metal pastes and silver systems being focused upon. Contact resistance measurements were refined. A facility allowing fixing in hydrogen and other atmospheres was acquired. Several experiments were made applying screenable pastes to solar cells. Doping investigations emphasized eutectic alloys reduced to powders. Metal systems were reviewed and base metal experiments were done with nickel and copper using lead and tin as the frit metals. Severe adhesion problems were experienced with hydrogen atmospheres in all metal systems. A two step firing schedule was devised. Aluminum-silicon and aluminum-germanium eutectic doping additions to copper pastes were tried on 2 1/4 in diameter solar cell back contacts, both with good results.

Ross, B.↗

Wheat forecast economics effect study

A model to assess the value of improved information regarding the inventories, productions, exports, and imports of crop on a worldwide basis is discussed. A previously proposed model is interpreted in a stochastic control setting and the underlying assumptions of the model are revealed. In solving the stochastic optimization problem, the Markov programming approach is much more powerful and exact as compared to the dynamic programming-simulation approach of the original model. The convergence of a dual variable Markov programming algorithm is shown to be fast and efficient. A computer program for the general model of multicountry-multiperiod is developed. As an example, the case of one country-two periods is treated and the results are presented in detail. A comparison with the original model results reveals certain interesting aspects of the algorithms and the dependence of the value of information on the incremental cost function.

Mehra, R. K.↗

Economical drive for large tube mills by means of planetary gears

The performance of heavy-duty planetary gear drives for ball mills used in the cement industry since 1967 is described. These gear drives transmit up to 8500 HP per installation. A reliable method for establishing gear drive efficiency is described and possible savings due to higher efficiency are indicated.

Ackle, W.↗

Economic aspects of spectrum management

Problems associated with the allocation of the radio frequency spectrum are addressed. It is observed that the current method very likely does not allocate the resource to those most valuing its use. Ecomonic criteria by which the effectiveness of resource allocation schemes can be judged are set forth and some thoughts on traditional objections to implementation of market characteristics into frequency allocation are offered. The problem of dividing orbit and spectrum between two satellite services sharing the same band but having significantly different system characteristics is discussed. The problem is compounded by the likelihood that one service will commence operation much sooner than the other. Some alternative schemes are offered that, within proper international constraints, could achieve a desired flexibility in the division of orbit and frequency between the two services domestically over the next several years.

Stibolt, R. D.↗

The economic basis for national science and technology policy

National science and technology policy is concerned with societal choices with respect to the rate and directions of technological change and the adoption and use of new technology in society. Such policy choices occur primarily in connection with management of the creation, dissemination, and use of scientific and technical information. Two categories of policy instruments discussed are market-oriented approaches, and direct public action. Possibilities for increased use of market-oriented approaches that can provide benefits to society in the form of an increased rate of innovation and of more 'appropriate' technology, better suited to the needs of consumers are indicated.

Dunn, D. A.↗

Architectures and economics for pervasive broadband satellite networks

The size of a satellite network necessary to provide pervasive high-data-rate business communications is estimated, and one possible configuration is described which could interconnect most organizations in the United States. Within an order of magnitude, such a network might reasonably have a capacity equivalent to 10,000 simultaneous 3-Mbps channels, and rely primarily upon a cluster of approximately 3-5 satellites in a single orbital slot. Nominal prices for 3-6 Mbps video conference services might then be approximately $2000 monthly lease charge plus perhaps 70 cents per minute one way.

Staelin, D. H.↗

Evaluation of solar thermal power plants using economic and performance simulations

An energy cost analysis is presented for central receiver power plants with thermal storage and point focusing power plants with electrical storage. The present approach is based on optimizing the size of the plant to give the minimum energy cost (in mills/kWe hr) of an annual plant energy production. The optimization is done by considering the trade-off between the collector field size and the storage capacity for a given engine size. The energy cost is determined by the plant cost and performance. The performance is estimated by simulating the behavior of the plant under typical weather conditions. Plant capital and operational costs are estimated based on the size and performance of different components. This methodology is translated into computer programs for automatic and consistent evaluation.

El-Gabawali, N.↗

Economic considerations in space industrialization

The industrial categories of the United States economy are surveyed to identify those which can function using dominantly lunar raw materials or lunar derived feedstocks (LDF) and solar energy. Sixty-four standard industrial categories (SIC) appear to be compatible with LDF inputs; another 166 SIC's might be adaptable to LDF and space industry if substitution of materials and/or terrestrial supplements were introduced. Analytic tools are presented to use in deciding optimal strategies by which a generalized economy can be developed in space in an optimal manner within given constraints of capital, products derived at a given time, local production costs, cost of import from earth and other factors.

Ayres, R. U.↗

Recent developments in the economic modeling of photovoltaic module manufacturing

Recent developments in the solar array manufacturing industry costing standards (SAMICS) are described. Consideration is given to the added capability to handle arbitrary operating schedules and the revised procedure for calculation of one-time costs. The results of an extensive validation study are summarized.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

Economic Evaluation of Single-Family-Residence Solar-Energy System

Report concludes that where solar-energy system investment costs are presently high, future promise of savings due to increased conventional energy costs is not optimistic. This is because cost of system tends to increase at a rate not significantly less than the cost of conventional energy.

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