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At least 523 records · Page 29

Development of the IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report aims to provide an overview of all the performed activities resolving around the deployment of methods, software infrastructures, guidelines and workflow for the construction and usage of models, encapsulated using the FMI/FMU protocols and standards. In particular, the report is organized in three main macro-subjects, which are connected to each other: - FMI/FMU adaptors for modelica models - HYBRID repository new structure and open-source deployment - RAVEN FMI/FMU exporting capabilities and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis acceleration. The first part of the report discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models, such as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity are maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In the second part of the report, the new structure of the HYBRID repository is discussed with a major focus on the series of updates that has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. The third and final part of the report aims to report the work that has been performed for the deployment of methods and workflows for the construction of RAVEN AI-based models compliant with the FMI/FMU standard. Such development represents the key for the deployment of the concept of “Flexible ecosystem” since it allows for the replacement of high-fidelity modelica models (or any other FMI/FMU compliant model) with RAVEN generated AI surrogate models. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and open-sourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.4 User's Guide: Addendum for Shock Capabilities

This is an addendum to the Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.4 User’s Guide that documents additional capabilities available only in alternate versions of the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) code. These alternate versions are enhanced to provide capabilities that are regulated under the U.S. Department of State’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control rules. The ITAR regulated codes are only distributed to entities that comply with the ITAR export control requirements. The ITAR enhancements to Sierra/SM include material models with an energy-dependent pressure response (appropriate for very large deformations and strain rates) and capabilities for blast modeling. This document is an addendum only; the standard Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.4 User’s Guide should be referenced for most general descriptions of code capability and use.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.6: ITAR Users' Guide, Addendum for Shock Capabilities

This is an addendum to the Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.6 User's Guide that documents additional capabilities available only in alternate versions of the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) code. These alternate versions are enhanced to provide capabilities that are regulated under the U.S. Department of State's International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control rules. The ITAR regulated codes are only distributed to entities that comply with the ITAR export control requirements. The ITAR enhancements to Sierra/SM include material models with an energy-dependent pressure response (appropriate for very large deformations and strain rates) and capabilities for blast modeling. This document is an addendum only; the standard Sierra SolidMechanics 5.6 User's Guide should be referenced for most general descriptions of code capability and use.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physical, resource supply, and biological controls on nutrient processing along the river continuum

Nutrient impairment has led to damages to US surface and groundwater systems in excess of 100 billion dollars per year. Therefore, there is a strong need to develop methods to predict the transport, uptake, and export of nutrients along fluvial networks. We present results that are based on a data-driven mechanistic understanding of three factors that largely control nutrient uptake and export: 1) interactions between transport-related processes (mass transfer to metabolically active zones), 2) resource supply dynamics (nutrient concentration, stoichiometric constraints, etc.), and 3) biological controls (microbial community structure and function). Our results were generated from column experiments conducted along the Jemez River-Rio Grande continuum, which spans four orders of magnitude in mean annual discharge, more than 2000 m in altitude, and more than 500 km of stream longitude. Two resource supply injections were performed on each of the columns, i.e., a nitrate only addition, followed by a stoichiometrically ‘balanced’ 106Carbon:16Nitrogen:1Phosphorus addition. We quantified NO3-N uptake kinetics while constraining three variables: stream order, sediment type and type of injection (N vs stoichiometrically ‘balanced’ C:N:P). Following the laboratory nutrient uptake experiments, the columns were destructively sampled and the contents were homogenized to collect subsamples for DNA sequencing. Amplicon analysis was carried out as described by the Earth Microbiome Protocol for 16s and ITS sequencing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.8 ITAR Users' Guide

This is an addendum to the Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.8 User’s Guide that documents additional capabilities available only in alternate versions of the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) code. These alternate versions are enhanced to provide capabilities that are regulated under the U.S. Department of State’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control rules. The ITAR regulated codes are only distributed to entities that comply with the ITAR export control requirements. The ITAR enhancements to Sierra/SM include material models with an energy-dependent pressure response (appropriate for very large deformations and strain rates) and capabilities for blast modeling. This document is an addendum only; the standard Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.8 User’s Guide should be referenced for most general descriptions of code capability and use.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.10: ITAR Users' Guide

This is an addendum to the Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.10 User’s Guide that documents additional capabilities available only in alternate versions of the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) code. These alternate versions are enhanced to provide capabilities that are regulated under the U.S. Department of State’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control rules. The ITAR regulated codes are only distributed to entities that comply with the ITAR export control requirements. The ITAR enhancements to Sierra/SM include material models with an energy-dependent pressure response (appropriate for very large deformations and strain rates) and capabilities for blast modeling. This document is an addendum only; the standard Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.10 User’s Guide should be referenced for most general descriptions of code capability and use.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Alternative Approaches to Traditional Net Energy Metering

Most jurisdictions in the United States originally implemented net energy metering (NEM) tariffs to support the deployment and interconnection of distributed generation (DG) resources (e.g., rooftop solar photovoltaic systems). Since then, NEM has proven effective in promoting adoption of DG resources. Recently, due to concerns about sufficient recovery of utilities’ revenue requirements and cost-shifting, there is increasing interest in—or statutory requirements to pursue—alternative compensation approaches, especially in U.S. states and territories with robust growth in distributed solar. Recent increases in other forms of distributed energy resources (DERs) that can potentially send power to the distribution grid (e.g., distributed battery energy storage system (BESS)) are further driving compensation reforms. This brief provides an overview of design elements associated with alternative approaches to traditional NEM, summarizes common arguments for and against them, and identifies implementation issues that utilities may need to address. Although this brief may be most useful in jurisdictions that are interested in or required to move beyond NEM, it is also applicable to those jurisdictions that have already done so—and are looking to further implement reforms to their existing compensation mechanisms. In the broadest sense, there are three primary tariff-related components when interconnecting a DER onto the local utility’s distribution system (adapted from Zinaman et al., 2017): 1. Metering and Billing Arrangements: How utilities measure and bill electricity consumption and production. 2. DER Export Tariff Design: The structure under which utilities compensate customers for electricity they export to the grid. 3. Consumption Tariff Design: The structure under which customers pay for electricity they consume from the grid. When implementing changes to any of these primary tariff-related components, there are likely implications for a utility’s metering system, billing system, and other technology systems. Where applicable, this brief explicitly identifies such implementation challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced User Interface Capabilities [Slides]

This tutorial will review the data plotting and geometry visualization capabilities in the Fulcrum user interface. This tutorial will help you become familiar with Fulcrum’s 2D plot, and 2D and 3D geometry visualization features. You will learn how to identify plottable data items, compose and export plot and plot data for SCALE plot formats (SDF, Ampx MG/CE, PLT, F71, PTP, SPF, ORIGEN Gamma data, etc.) and visualize, navigate, cut, hide, and export the geometry and spatial data (fission-, dose-map, etc.) overlays in 2D and 3D. No prior experience with SCALE is required. Attendees can follow along using 6.3.0-beta.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Technology Strategy Assessment: Findings from Storage Innovations 2030 Bidirectional Hydrogen Storage

Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe, comprising nearly 75% of all normal matter, and it has been used by scientists for centuries, but it was not fully recognized as an element until 1766, when it was isolated by Henry Cavendish. Early work focused on the generation of hydrogen through the oxidation of metals in water, which released hydrogen gas. Hydrogen’s lighter-than-air and flammable properties were immediately used in engines, zeppelins, and as feedstock for a wide variety of chemical reactions. Several approaches were developed for the production of hydrogen with the most common being associated with the production and conversion of hydrocarbon-based fuels. Coal gasification, steam methane reforming, and other reformation processes provide the majority of current hydrogen production due to the relatively low cost of hydrogen produced through these processes. More than 95% of hydrogen production is used for industrial processes rather than energy storage. To facilitate affordable decarbonization of these industrial processes and to advance the use of hydrogen as a fuel in transportation, DOE launched the Hydrogen Shot as part of the Energy Earthshots Initiative. The goal of the Hydrogen Shot is to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1/kg of clean hydrogen production within one decade (known as the “1 1 1” goal). This is distinct from the Long-Duration Storage Shot, which is the primary focus of this report; however, it is intrinsically linked to bidirectional hydrogen storage. Several important chemical synthesis processes are dependent upon hydrogen, and the production and use of hydrogen is generally driven by its connection to one of these markets. For example, ammonia is one of the most highly produced chemicals in the world and it depends chiefly on hydrogen. Ammonia is primarily used for agricultural fertilizer and is considered to be largely responsible for a doubling of agricultural production per unit of land over the last century. Another one of hydrogen’s primary uses is as a catalyst in petroleum refining during the desulfurization process. Beyond chemical production, hydrogen is used as a reductant in the production of steel and has been demonstrated as a substitute for metallurgical coal in the production of raw iron. It is even used in the hydrogenation reaction for food products to create more shelf-stable semi-solid fats. However, while hydrogen is produced on the order of 100 million metric tons/year globally to feed these industries, more than 95% of hydrogen is produced from hydrocarbons that emit CO2 during the process. Conversely, electrolysis is a process by which electricity is used to separate hydrogen and oxygen in water molecules, usually across a membrane. Hydrogen production via electrolysis lowers the carbon intensity of produced hydrogen when coupled with low-carbon electricity. Currently, global electrolysis capacity is on the order of 1 GW, which equates to about 500 metric tons/day of hydrogen production. To support large-scale industrial decarbonization, capacity will likely need to increase by two to three orders of magnitude. Electrolysis technology is broadly separated into groups that are defined by the electrolyte used, with further subdivision based on the operating characteristics. The majority of commercial electrolyzer systems are based around three main technology groups: liquid alkaline, proton exchange membrane, and solid oxide. Liquid Alkaline (LA) electrolysis is the oldest, most mature, least expensive, and most common commercial technology, with 400 plants in operation by 1902. Its hydrogen output is low relative to the size of the system due to a low current density. LA electrolysis utilizes a liquid potassium hydroxide solution as the electrolyte. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis (also known as polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis), described in 1960, relies on an acid-impregnated polymer membrane as the electrolyte and typically offers three to six times higher hydrogen production per unit cell area than LA electrolysis. Solid oxide electrolysis, or high-temperature electrolysis, utilizes a ceramic cell as the electrolyte and operates on steam rather than liquid water, enabling electrical efficiencies of more than 90%, which is up from 60% with PEM. Two pre-commercial electrolyzer technologies to note are alkaline exchange membrane (AEM) and proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). AEM potentially has the advantages of both LA and PEM technologies in that it is able to use low-cost materials like LA but with the ability to operate at higher output pressures with a smaller footprint like PEM. Proton-conducting SOEC is similar to commercial SOEC, which uses an oxide-conducting ceramic; however, it uses a proton-conducting ceramic that has the potential to operate at lower temperatures and has lower capital costs. Each of these technologies is experiencing a rapid improvement in performance and a reduction in installed cost, and each appears to be well suited to specific applications. Besides differences in the type of electrolyzer used, the main difference in the architecture of bidirectional hydrogen systems is how the hydrogen is stored. Currently, the most cost-effective way to store large amounts of hydrogen gas is underground, such as in large salt caverns that have been hollowed out. These salt caverns are geographically concentrated in small portions of the United States and are not generally near large metropolitan areas; however, other subsurface architectures are being investigated to expand this reach. A more widely deployable option is aboveground pressurized tanks. These systems are about 10 times as expensive because of the materials and safety margins required to hold hydrogen at high pressures. A third option is using materials-based storage, such as liquid organic hydrogen carriers. By reversibly attaching the produced hydrogen to other molecules, it can be stored at near atmospheric pressure and room temperature. This has the potential to reduce the material cost of storage but may result in a reduction in the efficiency of the process because there are both hydrogen uptake and release processes. While materials-based storage has not been used extensively for large-scale hydrogen storage in the past, there is currently significant activity regarding developing materials and processes for use in large-scale hydrogen storage applications. Electrolysis-produced hydrogen offers an unusual opportunity for energy storage applications. Unlike more conventional energy storage approaches, such as batteries, which operate entirely within electrical markets, hydrogen is a valuable product beyond the electric market and can be directed to the most lucrative use. Hydrogen also can be directly converted back to electricity using either a fuel cell or turbine, or it can be sold to other markets, such as chemical synthesis, steel production, or even export. In this way, excess electricity can be upgraded to the most valuable product. Finally, its use can be actively managed between multiple off-takers; for example, local hydrogen storage can provide a specific amount of stored electricity and any excess can be exported to ammonia production. This flexibility is amplified by the fact that hydrogen storage has fully decoupled power and energy components, which allows for affordable scaling options. Together, this allows a substantial amount of creativity to enable the economic utilization of variable power resources while supporting decarbonization of the industry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.20 ITAR Users' Guide: Addendum for Shock Capabilities

This is an addendum to the Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.20 User’s Guide that documents additional capabilities available only in alternate versions of the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) code. These alternate versions are enhanced to provide capabilities that are regulated under the U.S. Department of State’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control rules. The ITAR regulated codes are only distributed to entities that comply with the ITAR export control requirements. The ITAR enhancements to Sierra/SM include material models with an energy-dependent pressure response (appropriate for very large deformations and strain rates) and capabilities for blast modeling. This document is an addendum only; the standard Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.20 User’s Guide should be referenced for most general descriptions of code capability and use.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.22: ITAR Users Guide, Addendum for Shock Capabilities

This is an addendum to the Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.22 User’s Guide that documents additional capabilities available only in alternate versions of the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) code. These alternate versions are enhanced to provide capabilities that are regulated under the U.S. Department of State’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control rules. The ITAR regulated codes are only distributed to entities that comply with the ITAR export control requirements. The ITAR enhancements to Sierra/SM include material models with an energy-dependent pressure response (appropriate for very large deformations and strain rates) and capabilities for blast modeling. This document is an addendum only; the standard Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.22 User’s Guide should be referenced for most general descriptions of code capability and use.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics, ITAR Users Guide (V.5.24): Addendum for Shock Capabilities

This is an addendum to the Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.24 User’s Guide that documents additional capabilities available only in alternate versions of the Sierra/SolidMechanics (Sierra/SM) code. These alternate versions are enhanced to provide capabilities that are regulated under the U.S. Department of State’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control rules. The ITAR regulated codes are only distributed to entities that comply with the ITAR export control requirements. The ITAR enhancements to Sierra/SM include material models with an energy-dependent pressure response (appropriate for very large deformations and strain rates) and capabilities for blast modeling. This document is an addendum only; the standard Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.24 User’s Guide should be referenced for most general descriptions of code capability and use.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Influence of synoptic atmospheric conditions on movement of individual sea-ice floes in Fram Strait, late summer 2010

Abstract In this paper we investigate the effect on sea-ice movement of changes in the synoptic atmospheric conditions in late boreal summer 2010. Our study area is the western Fram Strait, a crucial passage for the transport of ice out of the Arctic basin. Ice dynamics here affect the movement of ice in the East Greenland Current, the transpolar drift and ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. In contrast to other times of the year, when the Fram Strait wind field is characterized by strong, persistent northerlies, we show that the weaker, more variable winds typical during late summer for the Fram Strait can slow movement of ice floes out of the area, thus slowing the export of ice from the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer, a time crucial for ice export. The Arctic Ocean could lose even more of the ice that survives the summer if this was not the case. This would leave the Arctic Ocean in an even more vulnerable position with regard to the amount of multi-year ice remaining the following summer.

Geology↗

Assessment of Mesophotic Coral Ecosystem Connectivity for Proposed Expansion of a Marine Sanctuary in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Larval Dynamics

In coral reef ecosystems, mesophotic coral habitat ( >30m to the end of the photic zone) are extensions of shallow reefs and contribute to the persistence of coral reef populations. In the North West Gulf of Mexico (NW GOM), the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) is an isolated reef ecosystem comprising contiguous shallow and mesophotic reefs habitats on two central banks along the margin of the continental shelf. A future expansion of the sanctuary is proposed to include additional mesophotic banks and aims at building a network of protected areas in the NW GOM to ensure the persistence of the coral reef populations inhabiting the sanctuary. To evaluate the feasibility of this expansion and investigate the overall dynamics of coral species in the region, we studied the patterns of larval connectivity of Montastraea cavernosa, a common depth generalist coral species, using a larval dispersal modeling approach. Our results highlighted larval exports from the NW GOM banks to the northeastern and southwestern GOM, larval connectivity between all banks investigated in this study, and the potential for exporting larvae from mesophotic to shallower reefs. Our study associated with Studivan and Voss (2018; associate manuscript) demonstrates the relevance of combining modeling and genetic methods to consider both demographic and genetic timescales for the evaluation of the connectivity dynamics of marine populations. In the case of the NW GOM, both studies support the future management plan for expanding FGBNMS.

Garavelli, Lysel↗

Estuarine nutrient pollution impact reduction assessment through euphotic zone avoidance/bypass considerations

The feasibility of reducing nutrient pollution impact by redirecting the effluent to depths below the euphotic zone was investigated for the deep estuarine Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea in the Pacific Northwest of America. The hypothesis tested was that the thickness of the outflow layer in deep estuaries may be greater than the euphotic zone depth, allowing a fraction of nutrients to be exported out passively through the layers immediately below. The euphotic zone depth in Puget Sound varies from 8 to 25 m while the depth of the outflow layer can reach up to ≈ 60 m. Outfall relocation strategies were tested on 99% of the anthropogenic nutrient loads currently delivered to Puget Sound. The impact was quantified using the previously established biophysical Salish Sea Model, using gross primary production and exposure to low dissolved oxygen (DO) levels as the metric (< 2 mg/L for hypoxia and < 5 mg/L for impairment). Eliminating nutrient pollution (above natural) from rivers and wastewater reduced hypoxia exposure by 8.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Relocating the outfalls to deeper waters resulted in improvements, but only in the sill-less sub-basins such as Whidbey, where hypoxia and DO impairment exposure decreased (7.9% and 6.8%, respectively). The presence of multiple sills and circulation cells in Puget Sound resulted in increased exposure and rendered nutrient bypass goals unfeasible as originally envisioned. However, an alternate nutrient export pathway was identified through bottom exchange flow out of Puget Sound via Whidbey Basin and Deception Pass. An unexpected reduction in the exchange outflow magnitude (≈ 4%) due additional (22%) freshwater discharged to the estuary bottom was also noted. The potential loss in circulation strength due to rerouting of natural surface freshwater through submerged deep-water outfalls is identified as a new unforeseen anthropogenic impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elucidation of Triacylglycerol Overproduction in the C4 Bioenergy Crop Sorghum bicolor by Constraint-Based Analysis

Upregulation of triacylglycerols (TAGs) in vegetative plant tissues such as leaves has the potential to drastically increase the energy density and biomass yield of bioenergy crops. In this context, constraint-based analysis has the promise to improve metabolic engineering strategies. Here we present a core metabolism model for the C 4 biomass crop Sorghum bicolor ( iTJC1414 ) along with a minimal model for photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation, sucrose and TAG biosynthesis in C 3 plants. Extending iTJC1414 to a four-cell diel model we simulate C 4 photosynthesis in mature leaves with the principal photo-assimilatory product being replaced by TAG produced at different levels. Independent of specific pathways and per unit carbon assimilated, energy content and biosynthetic demands in reducing equivalents are about 1.3 to 1.4 times higher for TAG than for sucrose. For plant generic pathways, ATP- and NADPH-demands per CO 2 assimilated are higher by 1.3- and 1.5-fold, respectively. If the photosynthetic supply in ATP and NADPH in iTJC1414 is adjusted to be balanced for sucrose as the sole photo-assimilatory product, overproduction of TAG is predicted to cause a substantial surplus in photosynthetic ATP. This means that if TAG synthesis was the sole photo-assimilatory process, there could be an energy imbalance that might impede the process. Adjusting iTJC1414 to a photo-assimilatory rate that approximates field conditions, we predict possible daily rates of TAG accumulation, dependent on varying ratios of carbon partitioning between exported assimilates and accumulated oil droplets (TAG, oleosin) and in dependence of activation of futile cycles of TAG synthesis and degradation. We find that, based on the capacity of leaves for photosynthetic synthesis of exported assimilates, mature leaves should be able to reach a 20% level of TAG per dry weight within one month if only 5% of the photosynthetic net assimilation can be allocated into oil droplets. From this we conclude that high TAG levels should be achievable if TAG synthesis is induced only during a final phase of the plant life cycle.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Editorial: Linking Hydrological and Biogeochemical Processes in Riparian Corridors

The riparian corridor is a key component of the critical zone and an essential component of watershed systems. According to Merriam-Webster Dictionary, the word riparian is derived from the Latin word riparius, meaning “existing alongside a river.” Riparian corridors typically extend from a few meters to hundreds of meters adjacent to a river and are marked by rich biodiversity, vegetation, and intense biogeochemical activity. They act as integrators of watershed processes and constitute the primary pathways for the subsurface geochemical exports from the watershed. Although riparian corridors comprise only 2–10% of a watershed's area, as much as 90–98% of biogeochemical processing in watersheds occurs in this region, thereby affecting the subsurface geochemical exports and downstream river water quality. Indeed, the riparian corridor is a good example of the Pareto principle. This outsized contribution occurs at the interface between aquatic (river) and terrestrial (land) environments, where interactions between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes are intensified. Variations in the river corridor over time can thus also have outsize impacts. Therefore, it is important to understand the hydrological and biogeochemical linkages in riparian corridors to determine water availability and quality for sustainable management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables

The causal basis for many of the relationships in models used to estimate the indirect effects of U.S. biofuels on global agricultural markets has not been adequately established. This paper addresses this gap by examining causal interactions among corn market variables through which the indirect effects of U.S. corn use for ethanol would be transmitted. Specifically, structural break and causal analyses of U.S. corn supply, uses, trade, and price are performed using quarterly data for marketing years 1986 to 2017. The structural break analysis identifies three breaks in corn use for ethanol that reflect the policy-driven evolution of U.S. corn ethanol production and other market factors. The causality analysis finds that U.S. corn use for ethanol is not a driver of the corn price and net corn exports. Changes in corn supply and domestic corn use are found to be the key factors in accommodating the large increase in corn use for ethanol between 2003 and 2010. These results mean that common assumptions linking U.S. corn ethanol production to large reductions in corn availability and exports, and higher global corn prices merit reconsideration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗