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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Extracting the gamma-ray source-count distribution below the Fermi-LAT detection limit with deep learning

We reconstruct the extra-galactic gamma-ray source-count distribution, or dN/dS, of resolved and unresolved sources by adopting machine learning techniques. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network on synthetic 2-dimensional sky-maps, which are built by varying parameters of underlying source-counts models and incorporate the Fermi-LAT instrumental response functions. The trained neural network is then applied to the Fermi-LAT data, from which we estimate the source count distribution down to flux levels a factor of 50 below the Fermi-LAT threshold. We perform our analysis using 14 years of data collected in the (1,10) GeV energy range. The results we obtain show a source count distribution which, in the resolved regime, is in excellent agreement with the one derived from cataloged sources, and then extends as dN/dS ~ S -2 in the unresolved regime, down to fluxes of 5 · 10 -12 cm -2 s -1 . The neural network architecture and the devised methodology have the flexibility to enable future analyses to study the energy dependence of the source-count distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scaled Implementation of Smart Charge Management for Electric Vehicles

Smart charge management (SCM) has become a critical strategy for mitigating potential grid impacts and reducing electricity costs for all customers. This study will evaluate the economics of implementing light-duty EV SCM at scale across the United States. This work will enhance distribution system analysis by estimating SCM implementation costs, exploring viable business cases, and developing a framework for national-level applications. The primary methodology involves leveraging detailed grid modeling from a specific service territory and using spatial extrapolation techniques to generalize findings to other regions. The analysis will develop key metrics to quantify the costs and benefits of SCM, including implementation costs relative to strategy and scale, the cost of distribution system upgrades with and without SCM, and the percentage of peak-load reduction. The objective is to produce a comprehensive report and a parameterized framework that enables utilities to self-assess the value of SCM in their own service territories. This will support the development of cost-effective charging strategies, accelerate the energization of new EV chargers, and facilitate the seamless integration of EVs into the nation's power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Valuation Methodology and Economic Metrics (DSO+T Study: Volume 4)

This report summarizes a rigorous valuation analysis methodology used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to estimate the financial benefits and costs of adopting Transactive Energy coordination of distributed energy resources for key stakeholders (for example distribution system operators and customers). This was achieved by modeling the value exchanges between stakeholders and determining the annualized costs and revenues experienced by stakeholders, enabling the evaluation of overall impact on stakeholder’s annualized cash flow. Extensive work was conducted developing methods to estimate the operating costs of distribution system operators at a level of granularity that would allow the financial impact of implementing a transactive energy approach to be estimated. This work included developing parametric models for labor and software costs, distribution system capital and maintenance costs, growth rates, and factors to determine annualized costs of capital investments. Simulation results were used to calculate wholesale energy costs and revenues from retail sales. Valuation analysis methods were also developed for other stakeholders including customers, the transmission system operator, independent system operator, and generators. The resulting capability allows a complete mapping of the flow of financial value between stakeholders that can be directly integrated with the results of demand flexibility simulations. Example results are provided for a business-as-usual case and compared to a transactive energy case as well as to actual cost data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent Development of Frequency Estimation Methods for Future Smart Grid

The frequency estimated by the Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) is a critical index of power system status and supports many smart grid applications. The future smart grid features high penetration of renewables and more fast-moving power electronics inverters but raises challenges to the reliable frequency estimation. This article presents three methods to address these challenges. First, an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm was developed to track the fast-changing frequency in system dynamics. Second, we propose a technology that can tolerate the system transient and suppress the outliers. Third, an algorithm was developed to export high time-resolution frequency estimations with minimum computational effort. All of the proposed methods are realized in hardware and compared with classical frequency estimation methods. The testing results indicate that the proposed methods have excellent performance. They can be used in future PMUs and provide reliable and high time resolution data for smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-based Simulation Framework for Power Resilience Estimation and Enhancement

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of power distribution networks under such conditions. Resilience is estimated through Monte Carlo simulations, which simulate extreme weather scenarios and evaluate the impact on infrastructure fragility. Due to the proprietary nature of power network topology, a distribution network is synthesized using publicly available data. To generate the weather scenarios, an extreme weather generation method is developed. To enhance resilience, renewable resources such as solar panels and energy storage systems (batteries in this study) are incorporated. A customized Genetic Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal locations and capacities for solar panels and battery installations, maximizing resilience while balancing cost constraints. Experiment results demonstrate that on a large-scale synthetic distribution network with more than 300,000 nodes and 300,000 edges, the proposed framework can efficiently evaluate the resilience, and enhance the resilience through the installations of distributed energy resources (DERs), providing utilities with valuable insights for community-level power system resilience estimation and enhancement.

Wang, Xuesong [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Privacy-Preserving Robust Consensus for Distributed Microgrid Control Applications

Consensus-based distributed control has been proposed for coordinating distributed energy resources (DERs) in microgrids (MGs). As one key component, distributed average observers are used to estimate the average of a group of reference signals (e.g., voltage, current, or power). State-of-the-art distributed average observers could lead to loss of privacy due to information exchange on the communication channels. The DERs' reference signals, which contain private information, could be inferred by an eavesdropper. In this article, a privacy-preserving distributed average observer is proposed that is based on robust consensus and uses the state decomposition method to preserve privacy. Compared to the existing methods, the proposed observer does not require the knowledge of the reference signal's derivative and gives accurate and smooth estimation, and is thus applicable for MG distributed control applications. A detailed analysis regarding the convergence and privacy properties of the proposed observer is presented. Here, the proposed observer is implemented on hardware controllers and validated in the context of distributed MG control applications through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of Na Concentration on Cs Distribution with Crystalline Silicotitanate in Tank Waste Simulants

Crystalline silicotitanate (CST) ion exchange media is currently utilized in the tank side cesium removal (TSCR) system on the Hanford site to remove Cs-137 from the tank waste supernate. As the main dose contributor to the liquid supernate in Hanford tank waste, it is necessary to remove the Cs-137 to expedite low activity waste processing and immobilization. Ongoing batch contact experiments with CST have been done to tease out the impact of group II metals, anions, potassium, and temperature on Cs removal to better understand bounding conditions for operations as well as aid in development of a wholesome isotherm model to predict Cs behavior in the tank waste. This paper discusses the impact of Na concentration on Cs exchange and provides insight into the challenges associated with activity coefficient estimations for modeling Cs distribution in tank waste matrices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Image-based solar estimates

An example device is configured to determine, based on a sky image of a portion of sky over a power distribution network and using a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based image regression model, an estimated global horizontal irradiance (GHI) value and manage or control the power distribution network using the estimated GHI value. The device may also be configured to determine, based on GHI values and aggregate load values for at least a portion of the power distribution network, using a Bayesian Structural Time Series model, an estimated photovoltaic power output value for the at least a portion of the power distribution network. The device may manage or control the power distribution network using the estimated photovoltaic power output value.

Bernstein, Andrey↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of the convolutional neural networks on permeability estimation from micro-CT scanned sandstone and carbonate rock images

Rock permeability is one of the most crucial properties affecting subsurface fluid flow behaviors. To accurately and robustly estimate the permeability, Digital Rock Physics, including micro-CT scanning technology and direct flow simulations on scanned images, has prevailed in recent years. Besides, machine learning techniques such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widely adopted and achieved success in permeability estimations directly from rock images. However, existing ML methods used for permeability estimation from rock images lack uncertainty quantification that causes unreliable predictions and overconfident estimations on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. Here, in this work, we propose a PI3NN-CNN framework to address this problem. PI3NN-CNN consists of a CNN model for absolute permeability estimation and a PI3NN method to quantify the estimation uncertainty. It is able to quantify the uncertainty for in-distribution (InD) data with a desired confidence level, and identify OOD samples to avoid overconfident predictions. We demonstrate the method using micro-CT scanned images from two sandstone and two carbonate rocks. We found that PI3NN-CNN generates accurate predictions for InD samples, while producing high-quality prediction uncertainties regardless of the prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, PI3NN-CNN identifies OOD samples using its special network initialization scheme. The unique feature of PI3NN-CNN makes it applicable to more complex real-world image-based data for robust learning and predictions without overconfident estimations when the ground-truth information is unavailable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mechanism Design for Demand Response Programs

Demand response (DR) programs serve to reduce the consumption of electricity at times when the supply is scarce and expensive. Consumers or agents with flexible consumption profiles are recruited by an aggregator who manages the DR program. The aggregator calls on a subset of its pool of recruited agents to reduce their electricity use during DR events. Agents are paid for reducing their energy consumption from contractually established baselines. Baselines are counter-factual consumption estimates of the energy an agent would have consumed if they were not participating in the DR program. Baselines are used to determine payments to agents. This creates an incentive for agents to inflate their baselines in order to increase the payments they receive. There are several newsworthy cases of agents gaming their baseline for economic benefit. We propose a novel self-reported baseline mechanism (SRBM) where each agent reports its baseline and marginal utility. These reports are strategic and need not be truthful. Based on the reported information, the aggregator selects or calls on agents with a certain probability to meet the load reduction target. Called agents are paid for observed reductions from their self-reported baselines. Agents who are not called face penalties for consumption shortfalls below their baselines. Under SRBM, we show that truthful reporting of baseline consumption and marginal utility is a dominant strategy. Thus, SRBM eliminates the incentive for agents to inflate baselines. SRBM is assured to meet the load reduction target. To conclude, we show that SRBM is almost optimal in the metric of average cost of DR provision faced by the aggregator.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Seismic Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Fracture Generation During EGS Resource Development

This DOE GTO funded project was a collaborative effort between Array Information Technology and the University of California at Berkeley. The project goal is to improve technology to assess in-situ stress magnitude and orientation, kinematic fracture parameters, rupture size, rupture orientation as well as temporal changes and volumetric distribution of the injected fluid during Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) resource development. The project leveraged high-frequency seismic data recorded by the LBNL 34-station permanent geophone network and seismic broadband data recorded by a temporary 33-station seismometer network that operated in The Geysers during the injection phase of the DOE GTO funded EGS demonstration project at the well Prati-32. The operation of the broadband network with high station density and good azimuthal coverage to monitor the injection phase produced an unprecedented dataset that is typically unavailable for EGS operations. The two datasets offer the advantages of studying the parameters under investigation over a broader frequency band and the higher sensitivity of the broadband seismometers resulted in a richer dataset with a lower magnitude of completeness. Moment tensor (MT) inversion have been employed to develop a catalog of earthquake source solutions including moment tensor and finite source rupture area. This resulted in a 168-event waveform-based seismic moment tensor catalog for events 0.7≤Mw≤3.9 based on a semi-automated moment tensor analysis technique. The MT solutions were used for in-situ stress estimation during the EGS injection phases. We found an approximate 15-degree counterclockwise rotation of the least compressive stress sigma-3, and a rotation of the maximum compressive stress sigma-1 toward the vertical as the injected volume of water increased. We developed a rupture-area magnitude scaling relationship of The Geysers earthquakes obtained from finite-source inversion for fault slip that reveals a very high correlation to published results. Based on the rupture area-magnitude relationship we mapped Mw from the LBNL earthquake catalog to estimate the activated fracture area, its location and orientation within the injection volume of Prati-32. The double-difference Wadati (DDW) technique was applied to high-accuracy P- and S-wave differential travel times derived from waveform cross correlation to image fluid saturation in the subsurface based on Vp/Vs-ratio. The recently developed technique has been applied to estimate temporal changes of fluid distribution in fault zones and in volcanic regions but not yet in engineered geo-reservoirs. The improvement of the technology includes high-resolution waveform cross correlation applied to the high-quality datasets with lower magnitude of completeness resulting in a higher number of recorded events. The improvement allowed to estimate both, the spatial and temporal distribution of injected fluids and the state of the injected fluid during reservoir stimulation. Results of the DDW analysis revealed the development of an injection-derived steam plume during the early injection phase, particularly in the northern part of the Prati-32 study area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct Characterization of Atomically Dispersed Catalysts: Nitrogen-Coordinated Ni Sites in Carbon-Based Materials for CO 2 Electroreduction

Metal, nitrogen-doped carbon materials have attracted interest as heterogenous catalysts that contain MN x active sites that are analogous to molecular catalysts. Of particular interest is Ni,N-doped carbon, a catalyst that is active for the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 to CO. Critical to the understanding of these materials is proof of single atomic sites and characterization of the environment surrounding the metal atom; however, directly probing this coordination remains challenging. This challenge is addressed in this study by combining scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), single atom electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS), and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). Through STEM imaging, atomic dispersion of Ni in the carbon framework is confirmed and image analyses are utilized to give semiquantitative estimates of neighbor distance distributions and site densities of Ni atoms. Atomic resolution EELS demonstrates that N and Ni are colocated at the single Ni atom sites suggesting Ni–N coordination. ToF-SIMS reveals a distribution of NiN x C y - fragments that reflect the Ni–N bonding environments within Ni,N-doped carbon. The fragmentation from Ni,N-doped carbon is similar to Ni phthalocyanine, suggesting the existence of heterogenized, molecular-like NiN 4 active sites which motivates future studies that leverage insight from molecular catalysis design to develop next-generation heterogeneous catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamics of Intra-Cell Thermal Front Propagation in Lithium-Ion Battery Safety Issues

Thermal runaway (TR), a critical failure mode in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), poses significant safety risks and hinders wider application of LIBs. TR typically begins at a localized heat source and spreads across the cell. Understanding thermal front propagation (TFP) characteristics, such as front and velocity, is crucial for assessing energy release and temperature distribution for battery hazardous estimation. Recent studies assume that TR within cells propagates at a near-constant velocity, based on the reaction kinetics and thermal properties. Here, in this study, an intra-battery TR model is further proposed and it indicates that TFP velocity stabilizes when the front is distanced from the heat source. Theoretical estimates for propagation velocity and front are developed and validated through numerical simulations and experimental tests from the NREL Battery Failure Databank. The energy release rate during TFP and the impact of preheating based on a point heat source are explored. This work clarifies the long-standing clouds of the thermal font propagation behaviors within the single cell, highlights the power and beauty of mathematics modeling to describe the complicated thermal behaviors, and provides important guidelines for thermal hazardous understanding for next-generation batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗