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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Process-Interactions in MCS Simulations Across Scales (Final Progress Report)

This project, funded by DOE Atmospheric System Research (DE-SC0020050), focused on improving the representation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in numerical weather and climate models by leveraging high-resolution observations from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The research aimed to evaluate model sensitivities to grid spacing, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, with a particular emphasis on improving convection parameterization for high-resolution modeling. Findings from this work highlight several key advancements. Model validation against ARM radar wind profiler data from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites revealed systematic biases in simulated convective mass flux profiles, leading to the development of an observationally constrained evaluation framework for diagnosing and improving model performance. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the representation of Amazonian MCSs was highly dependent on PBL scheme selection, while mid-latitude MCSs were more strongly influenced by microphysics parameterizations. A series of high-resolution WRF simulations, ranging from 4 km to 125 m grid spacing, provided insight into the behavior of convective drafts across scales. While updraft properties converged at sub-kilometer resolutions, biases in downdraft intensity persisted even at the finest resolution tested, emphasizing the need for further refinements in model physics. Additionally, comparisons of MCS vertical structures between mid-latitude and tropical environments revealed stronger updrafts and larger mass flux in mid-latitude MCSs, providing critical insights for improving climate model representations of storm-scale dynamics. The project’s findings have already contributed to advancing numerical modeling capabilities, particularly in WRF, MPAS, ICON, and DOE’s SCREAM model, by refining how convective processes are represented in high-resolution climate simulations. Results were disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and ARM/ASR Research Highlights, engaging the broader scientific community. The project also provided valuable training opportunities for two postdoctoral researchers, who played central roles in model development, analysis, and dissemination of results. Their work contributed to several publications and conference presentations, helping prepare them for careers in atmospheric modeling. By improving the simulation of MCSs, this research directly supports the development of next-generation climate models capable of more accurately representing extreme precipitation and convective processes. The insights gained will inform future improvements in convective parameterization and guide the design of high-resolution weather and climate simulations, ultimately enhancing the reliability of climate projections and weather forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology with second- and third-order shear statistics for the Dark Energy Survey: Methods and simulated analysis

We present a new pipeline designed for the robust inference of cosmological parameters using both second- and third-order shear statistics. We build a theoretical model for rapid evaluation of three-point correlations using our fastnc code and integrate it into the cosmosis framework. We measure the two-point functions 𝜉 ± and the full configuration-dependent three-point shear correlation functions across all auto- and cross-redshift bins. We compress the three-point functions into the mass aperture statistic ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ for a set of 796 simulated shear maps designed to model the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. We estimate from it the full covariance matrix and model the effects of intrinsic alignments, shear calibration biases and photometric redshift uncertainties. We apply scale cuts to minimize the contamination from the baryonic signal as modeled through hydrodynamical simulations. We find a significant improvement of 83% on the figure of merit in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 plane when we add the ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ data to 𝜉 ± . Here, we present our findings for all relevant cosmological and systematic uncertainty parameters and discuss the complementarity of third-order and second-order statistics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems Used for Atmospheric Research

Abstract Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) are regularly being used to conduct atmospheric research and are starting to be used as a data source for informing weather models through data assimilation. However, only a limited number of studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of these systems and assess their ability to replicate measurements from more traditional sensors such as radiosondes and towers. In the current work, we use data collected in central Oklahoma over a 2-week period to offer insight into the performance of five different sUAS platforms and associated sensors in measuring key weather data. This includes data from three rotary-wing and two fixed-wing sUAS and included two commercially available systems and three university-developed research systems. Flight data were compared to regular radiosondes launched at the flight location, tower observations, and intercompared with data from other sUAS platforms. All platforms were shown to measure atmospheric state with reasonable accuracy, though there were some consistent biases detected for individual platforms. This information can be used to inform future studies using these platforms and is currently being used to provide estimated error covariances as required in support of assimilation of sUAS data into weather forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Selecting Appropriate Model Complexity: An Example of Tracer Inversion for Thermal Prediction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Abstract A major challenge in the inversion of subsurface parameters is the ill‐posedness issue caused by the inherent subsurface complexities and the generally spatially sparse data. Appropriate simplifications of inversion models are thus necessary to make the inversion process tractable and meanwhile preserve the predictive ability of the inversion results. In this study, we investigate the effect of model complexity on fracture aperture inversion and thermal performance prediction in a field‐scale EGS model. Principal component analysis was used to map the aperture field to a low‐dimensional latent space. The complexity of the inversion model was quantitatively represented by the percentage of total variance in the original aperture fields preserved by the latent space. Tracer, pressure and flow rate data were used to invert for fracture aperture through an ensemble‐based inversion method, and the inferred aperture field was used to predict thermal performance. With an over‐simplified aperture model, ensemble collapse occurred. The inverted aperture models failed to resolve necessary flow and transport features, leading to a biased thermal performance prediction. A complex aperture model involved excessive features and was prone to overinterpreting the inversion data. Both the tracer/pressure/flow rate data reproduction and thermal prediction showed significant uncertainties, making it difficult to properly estimate long‐term thermal performance. Fortunately, our results indicate that there exists an appropriate model complexity which can simultaneously match inversion data and predict thermal performance with an acceptable uncertainty. The quality of the fit of tracer data appears to be a useful indicator of such an appropriate model complexity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress in Constraining Nuclear Symmetry Energy Using Neutron Star Observables Since GW170817

The density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy is among the most uncertain parts of the Equation of State (EOS) of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter. It is currently poorly known especially at suprasaturation densities partially because of our poor knowledge about isovector nuclear interactions at short distances. Because of its broad impacts on many interesting issues, pinning down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy has been a longstanding and shared goal of both astrophysics and nuclear physics. New observational data of neutron stars including their masses, radii, and tidal deformations since GW170817 have helped improve our knowledge about nuclear symmetry energy, especially at high densities. Based on various model analyses of these new data by many people in the nuclear astrophysics community, while our brief review might be incomplete and biased unintentionally, we learned in particular the following: (1) The slope parameter L of nuclear symmetry energy at saturation density ρ0 of nuclear matter from 24 new analyses of neutron star observables was about L≈57.7±19 MeV at a 68% confidence level, consistent with its fiducial value from surveys of over 50 earlier analyses of both terrestrial and astrophysical data within error bars. (2) The curvature Ksym of nuclear symmetry energy at ρ0 from 16 new analyses of neutron star observables was about Ksym≈−107±88 MeV at a 68% confidence level, in very good agreement with the systematics of earlier analyses. (3) The magnitude of nuclear symmetry energy at 2ρ0, i.e., Esym(2ρ0)≈51±13 MeV at a 68% confidence level, was extracted from nine new analyses of neutron star observables, consistent with the results from earlier analyses of heavy-ion reactions and the latest predictions of the state-of-the-art nuclear many-body theories. (4) While the available data from canonical neutron stars did not provide tight constraints on nuclear symmetry energy at densities above about 2ρ0, the lower radius boundary R2.01=12.2 km from NICER’s very recent observation of PSR J0740+6620 of mass 2.08±0.07M⊙ and radius R=12.2–16.3 km at a 68% confidence level set a tight lower limit for nuclear symmetry energy at densities above 2ρ0. (5) Bayesian inferences of nuclear symmetry energy using models encapsulating a first-order hadron–quark phase transition from observables of canonical neutron stars indicated that the phase transition shifted appreciably both L and Ksym to higher values, but with larger uncertainties compared to analyses assuming no such phase transition. (6) The high-density behavior of nuclear symmetry energy significantly affected the minimum frequency necessary to rotationally support GW190814’s secondary component of mass (2.50–2.67) M⊙ as the fastest and most massive pulsar discovered so far. Overall, thanks to the hard work of many people in the astrophysics and nuclear physics community, new data of neutron star observations since the discovery of GW170817 have significantly enriched our knowledge about the symmetry energy of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Group-Invariant Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum machine learning (QML) models are aimed at learning from data encoded in quantum states. Recently, it has been shown that models with little to no inductive biases (i.e., with no assumptions about the problem embedded in the model) are likely to have trainability and generalization issues, especially for large problem sizes. As such, it is fundamental to develop schemes that encode as much information as available about the problem at hand. In this work we present a simple, yet powerful, framework where the underlying invariances in the data are used to build QML models that, by construction, respect those symmetries. These so-called group-invariant models produce outputs that remain invariant under the action of any element of the symmetry group $\mathfrak{G}$ associated with the dataset. We present theoretical results underpinning the design of $\mathfrak{G}$-invariant models, and exemplify their application through several paradigmatic QML classification tasks, including cases when $\mathfrak{G}$ is a continuous Lie group and also when it is a discrete symmetry group. Notably, our framework allows us to recover, in an elegant way, several well-known algorithms for the literature, as well as to discover new ones. Taken together, we expect that our results will help pave the way towards a more geometric and group-theoretic approach to QML model design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Augmenting a Simulation Campaign for Hybrid Computer Model and Field Data Experiments

The Kennedy and O’Hagan (KOH) calibration framework uses coupled Gaussian processes (GPs) to meta-model an expensive simulator (first GP), tune its “knobs” (calibration inputs) to best match observations from a real physical/field experiment and correct for any modeling bias (second GP) when predicting under new field conditions (design inputs). There are well-established methods for placement of design inputs for data-efficient planning of a simulation campaign in isolation, that is, without field data: space-filling, or via criterion like minimum integrated mean-squared prediction error (IMSPE). Analogues within the coupled GP KOH framework are mostly absent from the literature. Here, in this study, we derive a closed form IMSPE criterion for sequentially acquiring new simulator data for KOH. We illustrate how acquisitions space-fill in design space, but concentrate in calibration space. Closed form IMSPE precipitates a closed-form gradient for efficient numerical optimization. We demonstrate that our KOH-IMSPE strategy leads to a more efficient simulation campaign on benchmark problems, and conclude with a showcase on an application to equilibrium concentrations of rare earth elements for a liquid–liquid extraction reaction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

CSAPR2 Optimized Convective Cell Tracking Data during TRACER

One of the challenges in analyzing convective cell properties is to observe the quick evolution of individual convective cells. While the operational radar data provide a volumetric data set to analyze radar observables of convective precipitation clouds, previous studies also suggested the quick evolution of cell life cycle that might not be captured by conventional radar volume scan strategies that take ~5-7 minutes. Aiming at enhancing our understanding of the links between convective cloud kinematic and microphysical processes as well as life cycles, the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER; Jensen et al. 2019) was conducted at Houston, Texas, in 2022. The TRACER campaign deployed the 2nd generation C-band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar (CSAPR2), which performed frequent updates of range height indicator (RHI) and sector plan position indicator (PPI) scans to track individual convective cells every < 2 minutes, guided by a new cell tracking framework, Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS; Kollias et al. 2020). This allows for capturing fast-evolving radar observables. We provide the processed CSAPR2 cell tracking data in CfRadial format collected during the TRACER field campaign from June to September 2022. The data files include processed radar variables: noise-masked reflectivity and differential reflectivity corrected for rain attenuation and systematic biases, noise-masked dealiased radial velocity, specific differential phase, locations of target cells (latitude, longitude, radar range), and radar-echo classification. Figure 1 provides an example of a 3D image of CSAPR2 reflectivity from the lowest PPI scan and an RHI scan after data processing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Resonance Fitting for Nuclear Data Evaluation

Global and national efforts to deliver high-quality nuclear data to users have a wide-ranging impact, affecting applications in national security, reactor operations, basic science, medicine, and more. Cross section evaluation is a major part of this effort, combining theory and experimentation to produce recommended values and uncertainties for reaction probabilities. Resonance region evaluation is a specialized type of nuclear data evaluation that can require significant manual effort and months of time from expert scientists. In this article, non-convex non-linear optimization methods are combined with concepts of inferential statistics to infer a resonance model from experimental data in an automated manner that is not dependent on prior evaluation(s). This methodology aims to enhance the workflow of a resonance evaluator by minimizing time, effort, and the potential for bias from prior assumptions, while enhancing reproducibility and documentation, thereby addressing well-known challenges in the field.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The DESI One-percent Survey: Evidence for Assembly Bias from Low-redshift Counts-in-cylinders Measurements

Abstract We explore the galaxy-halo connection information that is available in low-redshift samples from the early data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We model the halo occupation distribution (HOD) from z = 0.1 to 0.3 using Survey Validation 3 (SV3; a.k.a., the One-Percent Survey) data of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. In addition to more commonly used metrics, we incorporate counts-in-cylinders (CiC) measurements, which drastically tighten HOD constraints. Our analysis is aided by the Python package, galtab , which enables the rapid, precise prediction of CiC for any HOD model available in halotools . This methodology allows our Markov chains to converge with much fewer trial points, and enables even more drastic speedups due to its GPU portability. Our HOD fits constrain characteristic halo masses tightly and provide statistical evidence for assembly bias, especially at lower luminosity thresholds: the HOD of central galaxies in z ∼ 0.15 samples with limiting absolute magnitude M r < −20.0 and M r < −20.5 samples is positively correlated with halo concentration with a significance of 99.9% and 99.5%, respectively. Our models also favor positive central assembly bias for the brighter M r < −21.0 sample at z ∼ 0.25 (94.8% significance), but there is no significant evidence for assembly bias with the same luminosity threshold at z ∼ 0.15. We provide our constraints for each threshold sample’s characteristic halo masses, assembly bias, and other HOD parameters. These constraints are expected to be significantly tightened with future DESI data, which will span an area 100 times larger than that of SV3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: a CMB lensing mass map over 2100 square degrees of sky and its cross-correlation with BOSS-CMASS galaxies

In this work, we construct cosmic microwave background lensing mass maps using data from the 2014 and 2015 seasons of observations with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). These maps cover 2100 square degrees of sky and overlap with a wide variety of optical surveys. The maps are signal dominated on large scales and have fidelity such that their correlation with the cosmic infrared background is clearly visible by eye. We also create lensing maps with thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich contamination removed using a novel cleaning procedure that only slightly degrades the lensing signal-to-noise ratio. The cross-spectrum between the cleaned lensing map and the BOSS CMASS galaxy sample is detected at 10σ significance, with an amplitude of A = 1.02 ± 0.10 relative to the Planck best-fitting Lambda cold dark matter cosmological model with fiducial linear galaxy bias. Our measurement lays the foundation for lensing cross-correlation science with current ACT data and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

1981 Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission Household Survey

The San Francisco Bay Area's Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) conducted the study in 1981, collecting household and travel information by telephone from 6,209 households in the MTC's nine-county jurisdiction. The sample gave good geographic coverage and provided a good representation of the population groups in the Bay Area. The survey was primarily intended to measure weekday travel; however, the size of the weekend travel sample was sufficient to enable MTC to make inferences about weekend trip generation. Travel days in the sample were spread out evenly over the three-month interviewing period to eliminate seasonal bias.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities with copula dependence

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be mutually independent or correlated by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, this subjective assumption may introduce bias in the response estimate if the real dependence structure deviates from this assumption. In this work, we overcome this limitation by introducing a flexible copula dependence model to capture complex dependencies. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian multimodel approach is proposed to quantify uncertainty in dependence model-form and model parameters that result from small data sets. This approach begins by identifying, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate marginal models and their corresponding model probabilities, and then estimating the uncertainty in the copula-based dependence structure, which is conditional on the marginals and their parameters. The overall uncertainties integrating marginals and copulas are probabilistically represented by an ensemble of multivariate candidate densities. A novel importance sampling reweighting approach is proposed to efficiently propagate the overall uncertainties through a computational model. Through an example studying the influence of constituent properties on the out-of-plane properties of transversely isotropic E-glass fiber composites, we show that the composite property with copula-based dependence model converges to the true estimate as data set size increases, while an independence or arbitrary Gaussian correlation assumption leads to a biased estimate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño

Abstract. The 2015–2016 El Niño event ranks as one of the most severe on record in terms of the magnitude and extent of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Corresponding global impacts on the climate were expected to rival, or even surpass, those of the 1997–1998 severe El Niño event, which had SST anomalies that were similar in size. However, the 2015–2016 event failed to meet expectations for hydrologic change in many areas, including those expected to receive well above normal precipitation. To better understand how climate anomalies during an El Niño event impact soil moisture, we investigate changes in soil moisture in the humid tropics (between ±25∘) during the three most recent super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, using data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). First, we use in situ soil moisture observations obtained from 16 sites across five continents to validate and bias-correct estimates from GLDAS (r2=0.54). Next, we apply a k-means cluster analysis to the soil moisture estimates during the El Niño mature phase, resulting in four groups of clustered data. The strongest and most consistent decreases in soil moisture occur in the Amazon basin and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. In addition, we compare changes in soil moisture to both precipitation and evapotranspiration, which showed a lack of agreement in the direction of change between these variables and soil moisture most prominently in the southern Amazon basin, the Sahel and mainland southeastern Asia. Our results can be used to improve estimates of spatiotemporal differences in El Niño impacts on soil moisture in tropical hydrology and ecosystem models at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

SNIa Cosmology Analysis Results from Simulated LSST Images: From Difference Imaging to Constraints on Dark Energy

Abstract The Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to process ∼10 6 transient detections per night. For precision measurements of cosmological parameters and rates, it is critical to understand the detection efficiency, magnitude limits, artifact contamination levels, and biases in the selection and photometry. Here we rigorously test the LSST Difference Image Analysis (DIA) pipeline using simulated images from the Rubin Observatory LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration Data Challenge (DC2) simulation for the Wide-Fast-Deep survey area. DC2 is the first large-scale (300 deg 2 ) image simulation of a transient survey that includes realistic cadence, variable observing conditions, and CCD image artifacts. We analyze ∼15 deg 2 of DC2 over a 5 yr time span in which artificial point sources from Type Ia supernova (SNIa) light curves have been overlaid onto the images. The magnitude limits per filter are u = 23.66 mag, g = 24.69 mag, r = 24.06 mag, i = 23.45 mag, z = 22.54 mag, and y = 21.62 mag. The artifact contamination levels are ∼90% of all detections, corresponding to ∼1000 artifacts deg –2 in g band, and falling to 300 deg –2 in y band. The photometry has biases <1% for magnitudes 19.5 < m < 23. Our DIA performance on simulated images is similar to that of the Dark Energy Survey difference-imaging pipeline on real images. We also characterize DC2 image properties to produce catalog-level simulations needed for distance bias corrections. We find good agreement between DC2 data and simulations for distributions of signal-to-noise ratio, redshift, and fitted light-curve properties. Applying a realistic SNIa cosmology analysis for redshifts z < 1, we recover the input cosmology parameters to within statistical uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Spatial Representativeness of Global Flux Tower Eddy-Covariance Measurements Using Data from FLUXNET2015

Large datasets of carbon dioxide, energy, and water fluxes were measured with the eddy-covariance (EC) technique, such as FLUXNET2015. These datasets are widely used to validate remote-sensing products and benchmark models. One of the major challenges in utilizing EC-flux data is determining the spatial extent to which measurements taken at individual EC towers reflect model-grid or remote sensing pixels. To minimize the potential biases caused by the footprint-to-target area mismatch, it is important to use flux datasets with awareness of the footprint. This study analyze the spatial representativeness of global EC measurements based on the open-source FLUXNET2015 data, using the published flux footprint model (SAFE-f). The calculated annual cumulative footprint climatology (ACFC) was overlaid on land cover and vegetation index maps to create a spatial representativeness dataset of global flux towers. The dataset includes the following components: (1) the ACFC contour (ACFCC) data and areas representing 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80% ACFCC of each site, (2) the proportion of each land cover type weighted by the 80% ACFC (ACFCW), (3) the semivariogram calculated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) considering the 80% ACFCW, and (4) the sensor location bias (SLB) between the 80% ACFCW and designated areas (e.g. 80% ACFCC and window sizes) proxied by NDVI. Finally, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the representativeness of each site from three aspects: (1) the underlying surface cover, (2) the semivariogram, and (3) the SLB between 80% ACFCW and 80% ACFCC, and categorized them into 3 levels. The goal of creating this dataset is to provide data quality guidance for international researchers to effectively utilize the FLUXNET2015 dataset in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with DESI 2024 LRG and QSO samples

We analyse the large-scale clustering of the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Quasar (QSO) sample from the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). In particular, we constrain the primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) parameter f NL loc via the large-scale scale-dependent bias in the power spectrum using 1,631,716 LRGs (0.6 < z < 1.1) and 1,189,129 QSOs (0.8 < z < 3.1). This new measurement takes advantage of the enormous statistical power at large scales of DESI DR1 data, surpassing the latest data release (DR16) of the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). For the first time in this kind of analysis, we use a blinding procedure to mitigate the risk of confirmation bias in our results. We improve the model of the radial integral constraint proposing an innovative technique allowing the correction through the window matrix convolution. We also carefully test the mitigation of the dependence of the target selection on the photometry qualities by incorporating an angular integral constraint contribution to the window function, and validate our methodology with the blinded data. Finally, combining the two samples, we measure f NL loc = -3.6 -9.1 +9.0 at 68% confidence, where we assume the universality relation for the LRG sample and a recent merger model for the QSO sample about the response of bias to primordial non-Gaussianity. Adopting the universality relation for the PNG bias in the QSO analysis leads to f NL loc = 3.5 -7.4 +10.7 at 68% confidence. Due to restricted selection in the LRG sample, the inclusion of the LRGs allows for 10% improvement. This measurement is the most precise determination of primordial non-Gaussianity using large-scale structure to date, surpassing the latest result from eBOSS by a factor of 2.3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗