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At least 523 records · Page 29

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Strength in Rotary Friction Welding of Five Dissimilar Nickel-Based Superalloys

Advanced manufacturing processes improve the cost and quality of goods. Rotary friction welding is a fast, energy-efficient, and reliable joining process for metals, but new applications are hindered by large development costs for each new alloy. Each alloy set has different welding characteristics; therefore, lessons learned from a single alloy are not always broadly applicable. To establish knowledge that is applicable across multiple alloys, a family of different superalloys were welded to discover process trends that were applicable beyond a single alloy set. In this study, weld symmetry did not correlate to weld strength across alloy systems. Some alloys’ strongest welds occurred at maximum symmetry, whereas high asymmetry was associated with different alloys’ maximum strength. High feed rates, high welding forces, low energy, and low temperatures all resulted in high-strength welds across all alloy and geometry combinations. Tensile strengths greater than 95% of base-metal strength were recorded for most alloy systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flutter behavior of highly flexible blades for two- and three-bladed wind turbines

Abstract. With the progression of novel design, material, and manufacturing technologies, the wind energy industry has successfully produced larger and larger wind turbine rotor blades while driving down the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Though the benefits of larger turbine blades are appealing, larger blades are prone to aeroelastic instabilities due to their long, slender, highly flexible nature, and this effect is accentuated as rotors further grow in size. In addition to the trend of larger rotors, non-traditional rotor concepts are emerging including two-bladed rotors and downwind configurations. In this work, we introduce a comprehensive evaluation of flutter behavior including classical flutter, edgewise vibration, and flutter mode characteristics for two-bladed, downwind rotors. Flutter speed trends and characteristics for a series of both two- and three-bladed rotors are analyzed and compared in order to illustrate the flutter behavior of two-bladed rotors relative to more well-known flutter characteristics of three-bladed rotors. In addition, we examine the important problem of blade design to mitigate flutter and present a solution to mitigate flutter in the structural design process. A study is carried out evaluating the effect of leading edge and trailing edge reinforcement on flutter speed and hence demonstrates the ability to increase the flutter speed and satisfy structural design requirements (such as fatigue) while maintaining or even reducing blade mass.

Chetan, Mayank (ORCID:0000000241978801)↗

Air transportation energy consumption - Yesterday, today, and tomorrow

The energy consumption by aviation is reviewed and projections of its growth are discussed. Forecasts of domestic passenger demand are presented, and the effect of restricted fuel supply and increased fuel prices is considered. The most promising sources for aircraft fuels, their availability and cost, and possible alternative fuels are reviewed. The energy consumption by various air and surface transportation modes is identified and compared on typical portal-to-portal trips. A measure of the indirect energy consumed by ground and air modes is defined. Historical trends in aircraft energy intensities are presented and the potential fuel savings with new technologies are discussed.

Mascy, A. C.↗

Design of short haul aircraft for fuel conservation

Current jet fuel prices of twice the 1972 level have significantly changed the characteristics of airplane design for best economy. The results of a contract with the NASA Ames Advanced Concepts and Missions Division confirmed the economic desirability of lower design cruise speeds and higher aspect-ratio wings compared to designs developed in the by-gone era of low fuel price. Evaluation of potential fuel conservation for short-haul aircraft showed that an interaction of airfoil technology and desirable engine characteristics is important: the supercritical airfoil permits higher aspect ratio wings with lower sweep; these, in turn, lower the cruise thrust requirements so that engines with higher bypass ratios are better matched in terms of lapse rate; lower cruise speeds (which are also better for fuel and operating cost economy) push the desired bypass ratio up further. Thus, if fuel prices remain high, or rise further, striking reductions in community noise level can be achieved as a fallout in development of a 1980s airplane and engine. Analyses are presented of developmental trends in the design of short-haul aircraft with lower cruise speeds and higher aspect-ratio wings, and the effects on fuel consumption of design field length, powered lift concepts, and turboprop as well as turbofan propulsion are discussed.

Bowden, M. K.↗

Deployment of an Advanced Electrocardiographic Analysis (A-ECG) to Detect Cardiovascular Risk in Career Firefighters

INTRODUCTION Sudden cardiac death is the leading cause of line of duty death among firefighters, accounting for approximately 45% of fatalities annually. Firefighters perform strenuous muscular work while wearing heavy, encapsulating personal protective equipment in high ambient temperatures, under chaotic and emotionally stressful conditions. These factors can precipitate sudden cardiac events like myocardial infarction, serious dysrhythmias, or cerebrovascular accidents in firefighters with underlying cardiovascular disease. Screening for cardiovascular risk factors is recommended but not always followed in this population. PHASER is a project charged with identifying and prioritizing risk factors in emergency responders. We have deployed an advanced ECG (A-ECG) system developed at NASA for improved sensitivity and specificity in the detection of cardiac risk. METHODS Forty-four professional firefighters were recruited to perform comprehensive baseline assessments including tests of aerobic performance and laboratory tests for fasting lipid profiles and glucose. Heart rate and conventional 12-lead ECG were obtained at rest and during incremental treadmill exercise testing (XT). In addition, a 5-min resting 12-lead A-ECG was obtained in a subset of firefighters (n=18) and transmitted over a secure networked system to a physician collaborator at NASA for advanced-ECG analysis. This A-ECG system has been proven, using myocardial perfusion and other imaging, to accurately identify a number of cardiac pathologies including coronary artery disease (CAD), left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, and ischemic cardiomyopathy. RESULTS Subjects mean (SD) age was 43 (8) years, weight 91 (13) kg, and BMI of 28 (3) kg/square meter. Maximum oxygen uptake (VO2max) was 39 (9) ml/kg/min. This compares with the 45th %ile in healthy reference values and a recommended standard of 42 ml/kg/min for firefighters. The metabolic threshold (VO2Theta) above which lactate accumulates was 23 (8) ml/kg/min. The chronotropic index, a measure of cardiovascular strain during XT was 35 (8) /L compared with reference values for men of 40 /L. Total cholesterol, LDL-C and HDL-C were 202 (34),126 (29), and 55 (15) mg/dl, respectively. Fifty-one percent of subjects had .3 cardiovascular risk factors, 2 subjects had resting hypertension (BP.140/90), and 23 had pre-hypertension (.120/80 but <140/90). Seven had exaggerated exercise induced hypertension but only one had ST depression on XT ECG, at least one positive A-ECG score for CAD, and documented CAD based on cardiology referral. While all other subjects, including those with fewer risk factors, higher aerobic fitness, and normal exercise ECGs, were classified as healthy by A-ECG, there was no trend for association between risk factors and any of 20 A-ECG parameters in the grouped data. CONCLUSIONS A-ECG screening correctly identified the individual with CAD although there was no trend for A-ECG parameters to distinguish those with elevated BP or multiple risk factors but normal XT ECG. We have demonstrated that a new technology, advanced-ECG, can be introduced for remote firefighter risk assessment. This simple, time and cost-effective approach to risk identification that can be acquired remotely and transmitted securely can detect individuals potentially at risk for line-of-duty death. Additional research is needed to further document its value.

Dolezal, B. A.↗

Lost in Cloud

Cloud computing can reduce cost significantly because businesses can share computing resources. In recent years Small and Medium Businesses (SMB) have used Cloud effectively for cost saving and for sharing IT expenses. With the success of SMBs, many perceive that the larger enterprises ought to move into Cloud environment as well. Government agency s stove-piped environments are being considered as candidates for potential use of Cloud either as an enterprise entity or pockets of small communities. Cloud Computing is the delivery of computing as a service rather than as a product, whereby shared resources, software, and information are provided to computers and other devices as a utility over a network. Underneath the offered services, there exists a modern infrastructure cost of which is often spread across its services or its investors. As NASA is considered as an Enterprise class organization, like other enterprises, a shift has been occurring in perceiving its IT services as candidates for Cloud services. This paper discusses market trends in cloud computing from an enterprise angle and then addresses the topic of Cloud Computing for NASA in two possible forms. First, in the form of a public Cloud to support it as an enterprise, as well as to share it with the commercial and public at large. Second, as a private Cloud wherein the infrastructure is operated solely for NASA, whether managed internally or by a third-party and hosted internally or externally. The paper addresses the strengths and weaknesses of both paradigms of public and private Clouds, in both internally and externally operated settings. The content of the paper is from a NASA perspective but is applicable to any large enterprise with thousands of employees and contractors.

Maluf, David A.↗

H1 2021 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

On computer-aided design of aerospace vehicles

Digital computers are being used in many engineering activities to support design work. This paper provides an overview of some of this work as it relates to the design of aerospace vehicles. Discussions are given of some of the complexities of the design process which lead to large design costs and time. A number of important but disjointed computer capabilities have evolved over the years in analysis, optimization, and graphics, and such capabilities aid in addressing the problem of design complexity. Examples of existing computer-aided design (CAD) systems are given and trends for future CAD systems are indicated, as well as their relationship to pertinent data management technology. It is suggested that major gains in design capability will occur through continued development of CAD methodology and that these gains may be accelerated through a large focused effort.

Sobieszczanski, J. E.↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission: Fault Management Design Analyses

As a general trend, the complexities of modern spacecraft are increasing to include more ambitious mission goals with tighter timing requirements and on-board autonomy. As a byproduct, the protective features that monitor the performance of these systems have also increased in scope and complexity. Given cost and schedule pressures, there is an increasing emphasis on understanding the behavior of the system at design time. Formal test-driven verification and validation (V&V) is rarely able to test the significant combinatorics of states, and often finds problems late in the development cycle forcing design changes that can be costly. This paper describes the approach the SMAP Fault Protection team has taken to address some of the above-mentioned issues.

Earth↗

Large-Scale Solar Development: A Playbook for Southwest Virginia

his playbook is an introductory guide for local governments to facilitate large-scale solar projects in Southwest Virginia. In a region that has a long history of energy production, solar technologies offer enormous potential for economic development and job growth. Large-scale solar can take many forms, including rooftop or ground-mounted installations at local corporate offices, nonprofit organizations, or schools. It can also encompass utility-scale projects over many acres on former agricultural or timberlands, mined lands, or industrial sites. Regardless of the type of project, solar is a widely popular, cost-competitive energy choice that helps create sustainable and prosperous communities. This playbook is directed to municipal and county governments that have an essential role to play in encouraging large-scale solar projects. The first section provides an overview of state and national trends, including recent state legislation that will impact local oversight of solar development. This is followed by an overview of the solar project approval process from a developer’s perspective. The next section is an overview of the state and local permitting process for solar projects, followed by other development considerations such as local tax revenue options, financing incentives, and considerations for solar on brownfields and previously mined lands. The playbook concludes with a step-by-step guide for local governments to facilitate large-scale solar development.This playbook is part of the Solar Workgroup of Southwest Virginia’s effort to bring solar energy and associated jobs to the region. Over the past few years, the workgroup has met with stakeholder groups and crafted a strategy for local solar energy development. The workgroup has collaborated with cities and counties to bring SolSmart designation to eight counties and cities, implemented group purchase campaigns for commercial solar, and led research efforts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Performance Characterization of DSN System Frequency Stability Using Spacecraft Tracking Data

This software provides an automated capability to measure and qualify the frequency stability performance of the Deep Space Network (DSN) ground system, using daily spacecraft tracking data. The results help to verify if the DSN performance is meeting its specification, therefore ensuring commitments to flight missions; in particular, the radio science investigations. The rich set of data also helps the DSN Operations and Maintenance team to identify the trends and patterns, allowing them to identify the antennas of lower performance and implement corrective action in a timely manner. Unlike the traditional approach where the performance can only be obtained from special calibration sessions that are both time-consuming and require manual setup, the new method taps into the daily spacecraft tracking data. This new approach significantly increases the amount of data available for analysis, roughly by two orders of magnitude, making it possible to conduct trend analysis with good confidence. The software is built with automation in mind for end-to-end processing. From the inputs gathering to computation analysis and later data visualization of the results, all steps are done automatically, making the data production at near zero cost. This allows the limited engineering resource to focus on high-level assessment and to follow up with the exceptions/deviations. To make it possible to process the continual stream of daily incoming data without much effort, and to understand the results quickly, the processing needs to be automated and the data summarized at a high level. Special attention needs to be given to data gathering, input validation, handling anomalous conditions, computation, and presenting the results in a visual form that makes it easy to spot items of exception/ deviation so that further analysis can be directed and corrective actions followed.

Pham, Timothy T.↗

Automated Performance Characterization of DSN System Frequency Stability Using Spacecraft Tracking Data

This software provides an automated capability to measure and qualify the frequency stability performance of the Deep Space Network (DSN) ground system, using daily spacecraft tracking data. The results help to verify if the DSN performance is meeting its specification, therefore ensuring commitments to flight missions; in particular, the radio science investigations. The rich set of data also helps the DSN Operations and Maintenance team to identify the trends and patterns, allowing them to identify the antennas of lower performance and implement corrective action in a timely manner. Unlike the traditional approach where the performance can only be obtained from special calibration sessions that are both time-consuming and require manual setup, the new method taps into the daily spacecraft tracking data. This new approach significantly increases the amount of data available for analysis, roughly by two orders of magnitude, making it possible to conduct trend analysis with good confidence. The software is built with automation in mind for end-to-end processing. From the inputs gathering to computation analysis and later data visualization of the results, all steps are done automatically, making the data production at near zero cost. This allows the limited engineering resource to focus on high-level assessment and to follow up with the exceptions/deviations. To make it possible to process the continual stream of daily incoming data without much effort, and to understand the results quickly, the processing needs to be automated and the data summarized at a high level. Special attention needs to be given to data gathering, input validation, handling anomalous conditions, computation, and presenting the results in a visual form that makes it easy to spot items of exception/deviation so that further analysis can be directed and corrective actions followed.

Pham, Timothy T.↗

High Speed Mobility Through On-Demand Aviation

Game changing advances come about by the introduction of new technologies at a time when societal needs create the opportunity for new market solutions. A unique opportunity exists for NASA to bring about such a mobility revolution in General Aviation, extendable to other aviation markets, to maintain leadership in aviation by the United States. This report outlines the research carried out so far under NASA's leadership towards developing a new mobility choice, called Zip Aviation1,2,3. The feasibility, technology and system gaps that need to be addressed, and pathways for successful implementation have been investigated to guide future investment. The past decade indicates exciting trends in transportation technologies, which are quickly evolving. Automobiles are embracing automation to ease driver tasks as well as to completely control the vehicle with added safety (Figure 1). Electric propulsion is providing zero tail-pipe emission vehicles with dramatically lower energy and maintenance costs. These technologies have not yet been applied to aviation, yet offer compelling potential benefits across all aviation markets, and in particular to General Aviation (GA) as an early adopter market. The benefits of such an adoption are applicable in the following areas: 􀁸 Safety: The GA market experiences accident rates that are substantially higher than automobiles or commercial airlines, with 7.5 fatal accidents per 100 million vehicle miles compared to 1.3 for automobiles and.068 for airlines. Approximately 80% of these accidents are caused by some form of pilot error, with another 13% caused by single point propulsion system failure. 􀁸 Emissions: Environmental constraints are pushing for the elimination of 100Low Lead (LL) fuel used in most GA aircraft, with aviation fuel the #1 source of lead emissions into the environment. Aircraft also have no emission control systems (i.e. no catalytic converters etc.), so they are gross hydrocarbon polluters compared to automobiles. 􀁸 Community Noise: Hub and smaller GA airports are facing increasing noise restrictions, and while commercial airliners have dramatically decreased their community noise footprint over the past 30 years, GA aircraft noise has essentially remained same, and moreover, is located in closer proximity to neighborhoods and businesses. 􀁸 Operating Costs: GA operating costs have risen dramatically due to average fuel costs of over $6 per gallon, which has constrained the market over the past decade and resulted in more than 50% lower sales and 35% less yearly operations. Infusion of autonomy and electric propulsion technologies can accomplish not only a transformation of the GA market, but also provide a technology enablement bridge for both larger aircraft and the emerging civil Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) markets. The NASA Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) project successfully used a similar approach to enable the introduction of primary composite structures and flat panel displays in the 1990s, establishing both the technology and certification standardization to permit quick adoption through partnerships with industry, academia, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Regional and airliner markets are experiencing constant pressure to achieve decreasing levels of community emissions and noise, while lowering operating costs and improving safety. But to what degree can these new technology frontiers impact aircraft safety, the environment, operations, cost, and performance? Are the benefits transformational enough to fundamentally alter aircraft competiveness and productivity to permit much greater aviation use for high speed and On-Demand Mobility (ODM)? These questions were asked in a Zip aviation system study named after the Zip Car, an emerging car-sharing business model. Zip Aviation investigates the potential to enable new emergent markets for aviation that offer "more flexibility than the existing transportation solutions." These studies indicate that autonomy and electric propulsion technology infusions offer a unique opportunity to provide breakthrough capabilities for new high speed, on-demand travel alternatives that can leapfrog the need for future expensive ground-based infrastructure investment. At the same time, such investments offer a method of laying the foundation for these technologies to be incubated for commercial aviation at lower cost, and with lower initial certification thresholds due to the relatively poor capabilities of GA aircraft to permit early adoption and private market capitalization by rapid technology accelerations, as depicted in Figure 2.

Moore, Mark D.↗

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗