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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

The benefits of grid-scale storage on Oahu

The Hawaiian Electric Company intends to procure grid-scale Battery Energy Storage System (“BESS”) capacity. The purpose of this study is to determine whether providing contingency reserve or time-of-day shifting is of more benefit to the Oahu grid, and to better understand the relationship between BESS size and level of benefit. This is an independent study by Sandia, and is not being used to support the regulatory case for BESS capacity by Hawaiian Electric. The study team created a production cost model of the Oahu grid using data primarily from the Hawaiian Electric Company. The proposed BESS supplied contingency reserve in one set of runs and time-of-day shifting in another. Supplying contingency reserve led to larger savings than time-of-day energy shifting. Assuming a renewable reserve and a quick-start reserve, and $15/MMBtu for Low-Sulphur Fuel Oil, the 50-MW/25-MWh, 100-MW/50-MWh, and 150-MW/75-MWh systems supplying contingency reserve provided, respectively, savings of 9.6, 15.6, and 18.3 million USD over system year 2018. Over the range of fuel prices tested, these cost savings were found to be directly proportional to the cost of fuel. Lastly, as the focus is the operational benefit of BESS capacity, the capacity value of the BESS was not included in benefit calculations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating commercial feasibility of a new tall wind tower design concept using a stochastic levelized cost of energy model

Wind power generation has seen a dramatic increase in the 21st century and the Department of Energy (DOE) envisions that wind energy will become a much larger part of overall power generation in the U.S. by 2050. Wind turbines have continued to grow in size during the last few decades with towers commonly built at a height of 80 m for typical utility-scale turbines in the Unites States, and this is accompanied by certain transportation and logistics challenges. The newly proposed tall tower technology has been designed to be cost-effective in assembling towers as high as 140 m from precast concrete module components that are capable of transport on the U.S. road system. This paper presents an alternative wind tower design with potential for reducing the overall levelized cost of energy (LCOE); it evaluates a hexagonal precast concrete wind tower solution that facilitates use of a taller wind turbine generator for harvesting stronger, steadier, and more frequent wind resources to increase wind energy production and lower the overall LCOE. An integrated team of industry experts was consulted to support development of a stochastic life cycle cost model using a parametric estimate of the cost and fabrication and assembly schedules of this new wind tower design concept as well as forecasting the projected revenue to be created by the new technology. The study concludes that this new design concept is a commercially viable solution, with an estimated LCOE savings ranging from 2% to 4% compared with the typical 80 m turbine deployed in the United States, and it also provides wind power potential to previously untapped regions in the country. This article helps to inform energy developers, manufacturers, and policy makers, both regionally and nationally, of a possible economically feasible wind tower design solution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Glen Canyon Generation Loss

Colorado River Basin hydropower generation has faced challenges due to droughts and ecological and social water requirements. Specifically, Glen Canyon hydropower generation fluctuates substantially with recent extreme weather trends. Further, the western grid evolves with higher wind and solar share, and Glen Canyon hydropower's contribution to grid flexibility services is essential. The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) markets and schedules electricity production at GCD, and the loss of this power could have significant financial consequences for the WAPA Colorado River Storage Project's (CRSP) Office because it may need to purchase relatively large amounts of energy to serve its firm electrical obligations. In addition, GCD provides grid reliability services for the WAPA Colorado-Missouri (WACM) balancing authority (BA). Both WAPA and DOE's Water & Power Technology Office (WPTO) are interested in researching how these drier hydrological conditions will impact federal electrical energy production, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) power grid, and the value of hydropower in the face of lower production. We study multiple hydrologic and power grid scenarios to understand the grid impacts of the loss of Glen Canyon generation. The study uses a production cost model, water resources planning models, water-centric grid models, and various data analytic techniques. The study progress presentation discusses the selection of probable CRSP' hydropower scenarios and power grid scenarios to understand the impacts of Glen Canyon generation, which includes technologies that compensate the Glen Canyon energy and ancillary services contributions, transmission availability, and energy local marginal prices at interested grid locations of WAPA operation.

droughts↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the Grid Value of Offshore Wind Energy in Oregon

The significant offshore wind energy potential of Oregon faces several challenges, including a power grid which was not developed for the purpose of transmitting energy from the ocean. The grid impacts of the energy resource are considered through the lenses of (i) resource complementarity with Variable Renewable Energy resources; (ii) correlations with load profiles from the four balancing authorities with territory in Oregon; and (iii) spatial value to regional and coastal grids as represented through a production cost model of the Western Interconnection. The capacity implications of the interactions between offshore wind and the historical east-to-west power flows of the region are discussed. The existing system is shown to accommodate more than two gigawatts of offshore wind interconnections with minimal curtailment. Through three gigawatts of interconnection, transmission flows indicate a reduction of coastal and statewide energy imports as well as minimal statewide energy exports.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Use of Solar and Wind as a Physical Hedge against Price Variability within a Generation Portfolio

This study provides a framework to explore the potential use and incremental value of small- to large-scale penetration of solar and wind technologies as a physical hedge against the risk and uncertainty of electricity cost on multi-year to multi-decade timescales. Earlier studies characterizing the impacts of adding renewable energy (RE) to portfolios of electricity generators often used a levelized cost of energy or simplified net cash flow approach. In this study, we expand on previous work by demonstrating the use of an 8760 hourly production cost model (PLEXOS) to analyze the incremental impact of solar and wind penetration under a wide range of penetration scenarios for a region in the Western U.S. We do not attempt to 'optimize' the portfolio in any of these cases. Rather we consider different RE penetration scenarios, that might for example result from the implementation of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to explore the dynamics, risk mitigation characteristics and incremental value that RE might add to the system. We also compare the use of RE to alternative mechanisms, such as the use of financial or physical supply contracts to mitigate risk and uncertainty, including consideration of their effectiveness and availability over a variety of timeframes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on High Priority Topics

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations were developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 13 topics was developed for further analysis; this paper discusses the first five.

Electricity Grid↗
DOE OSTI2013

Cost Study for Manufacturing of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Power Systems

Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) power systems can be designed to produce electricity from fossil fuels at extremely high net efficiencies, approaching 70%. However, in order to penetrate commercial markets to an extent that significantly impacts world fuel consumption, their cost will need to be competitive with alternative generating systems, such as gas turbines. This report discusses a cost model developed at PNNL to estimate the manufacturing cost of SOFC power systems sized for ground-based distributed generation. The power system design was developed at PNNL in a study on the feasibility of using SOFC power systems on more electric aircraft to replace the main engine-mounted electrical generators [Whyatt and Chick, 2012]. We chose to study that design because the projected efficiency was high (70%) and the generating capacity was suitable for ground-based distributed generation (270 kW).

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Final Report

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations were developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 14 topics was developed for further analysis. This paper brings together the earlier interim reports of the first 13 topics plus one additional topic into a single final report.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development and Implications of a Predictive Cost Methodology for Modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) Projects in the United States

The slow pace of Pumped Storage Hydropower development in the US over the past twenty years has led to widespread interest in the feasibility and viability of alternative PSH designs, development schemes, and technologies. Since 2011, Oak Ridge National Lab has been exploring the economic viability of modular Pumped Storage Hydropower (m-PSH) development through targeted case studies, revenue simulations, and analysis of innovative configurations and designs. This paper outlines the development and supporting analysis of a scalable, comprehensive cost modeling tool designed to simulate the initial capital costs for a variety of potential m-PSH projects and deployment scenarios. The tool is used to explore and determine innovative research strategies that can improve the economic viability of m-PSH in US markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1979

Design, processing and testing of LSI arrays: Hybrid microelectronics task

Mathematical cost factors were generated for both hybrid microcircuit and printed wiring board packaging methods. A mathematical cost model was created for analysis of microcircuit fabrication costs. The costing factors were refined and reduced to formulae for computerization. Efficient methods were investigated for low cost packaging of LSI devices as a function of density and reliability. Technical problem areas such as wafer bumping, inner/outer leading bonding, testing on tape, and tape processing, were investigated.

Himmel, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Strawman Optical Reception Development Antenna (SORDA)

A strawman design of a ground-based station for receiving optical communications from deep space is presented. This strawman will serve as a basis for further study and design refinement. The recommendation to build rather than to use an existing facility is explained. Parameters of the design were selected to postulate a workable system, starting with a 10 m diameter, hexagonally segmented, f/0.5 primary mirror. The effects of variations of design parameters on performance and cost are discussed. Some design formulas are included. An electro-optical functional block diagram is presented and discussed. Cost calculations are based on a previous cost model for the hardware or on typical construction costs per unit area for several types of facilities. Other cost factors are included in the usual way for Construction of Facilities. The ratio of high and low reasonable values was less than a factor of 2, with a best estimate of under $16,000,000.

Kerr, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Methodology for evaluating modular assembly of large space platforms

This paper presents a methodology for analytically comparing approaches to modular assembly of large space platforms. the methodology combines a physical model of the modules, a life-cycle cost model, and a risk model to capture influential trade-offs.

in-space construction↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simultaneous application of predictive model and least cost formulation can substantially benefit biorefineries outside Corn Belt in United States: A case study in Florida

Previously, a predictive model was developed to identify optimal blends of expensive high-quality and cheaper low-quality feedstocks for a given geographical location that can deliver high sugar yields. Here, the optimal process conditions were tested for application at commercially-relevant higher biomass loadings. We observed lower sugar yields but 100% conversion to ethanol from a blend that contained only 20% high-quality feedstock. The impact of applying this predictive model simultaneously with least cost formulation model for a biorefinery location outside of the US Corn Belt in Lee County, Florida was investigated. A blend ratio of 0.30 EC, 0.45 SG, and 0.25 CS in Lee County was necessary to produce sugars at high yields and ethanol at a capacity of 50 MMGY. This work demonstrates utility in applying predictive model and LCF to reduce feedstock costs and supply chain risks while optimizing for product yields.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ASCoT 3: Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification in Early Concept Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation

For mission planners and evaluators alike, value in cost models comes from a mean or median prediction, an understanding of the uncertainty on that prediction, and an understanding of model performance. Here we apply advanced statistical and machine learning methods to spacecraft flight software cost, effort, and SLOC estimation, and present the results in the latest version of the Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). We present in- and out-of-sample performance metrics for our models, each of which incorporate some amount of epistemic uncertainty. ASCoT, hosted on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) database via the Online NASA Space Estimation Tool (ONSET), was first showcased in 2016 as a number of analogy-based models and methods (kNN and Clustering) to support early project formulation. This ASCoT update improves upon the previous analogic methods by incorporating uncertainty in the data transformations. In particular, we use a Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis (NLPCA) to deal with ordinal data.

Robotic Spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS2017

Review of a Draft - Avoiding the Impossible: Re-focusing a Non-Feasible Mission 2-Hrs into a 3-Day Engineering Session

Concurrent engineering offers a great many benefits to engineers and mission designers throughout the world of aerospace. The only downside of concurrent engineering, and this is somewhat unavoidable, is that you don’t know the results of a design session until the end when it is completed. Usually, this is not a problem – you wouldn’t start building a spacecraft before the design is finished. However, within mass and cost constrained systems, you may end up with a final design that although technically sound – is not feasible due to mass or cost limits. Employing in-session mass and cost models with flexible inputs that refine their estimates and variance as more detailed information comes in throughout a design session allows major design changes to be made when the probability of breaching a mass or cost cap exceeds a threshold level. This enables mission designers to re-focus the study, and avoid spending 3-days with 15 engineers designing a non-feasible mission. By understanding key correlations and nested relationships within mass or cost, and specifically mass or cost allocations per mission element by mission type, it’s possible to get flexible-input, statistically based mass and cost estimates very early in the design process. Baseline models are seeded using mission characteristics and general parameters (outer planetary orbiter-probe mission, $500M cost cap for example) to provide a rough estimate of the expected mass or cost. As information gets solidified during the session, it gets added to the model and the estimates are updated. Continuing the orbiter-probe mission example, modeling probe heat shield cost as a percent of total probe cost, and probe cost as a percent of total flight system cost, and total flight system cost as a percent of total mission cost allows a design team to roll-up solidified information to estimate the probability of fitting within a mass or cost constraint early in a concurrent design session. When only the heat shield cost is known, the variance of the final estimate is higher, whereas when the full probe gets defined, naturally, the variance of the estimate decreases. A methodology, model, verification and demo implementation for cost limit breach are presented.

Hihn, Jairus M.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations

The 2016 SECURE Water Act report’s natural water availability benchmark, combined with the 2010 level of water demand from an integrated assessment model, is used as input to drive a large-scale water management model. The regulated flow at hydropower plants and thermoelectric plants in the Western U.S. electricity grid (WECC) is translated into potential hydropower generation and generation capacity constraints. The impact on reliability (unserved energy, reserve margin) and cost (production cost, carbon emissions) of water constraints on 2010-level WECC power system operations is assessed using an electricity production cost model (PCM). Use of the PCM reveals the changes in generation dispatch that reflect the inter-regional interdependencies in water-constrained generation and the ability to use other generation resources to meet all electricity loads in the WECC. August grid operational benchmarks show a range of sensitivity in production cost (-8 to +11%) and carbon emissions (-7 to 11%). The reference reserve margin threshold of 15% above peak load is maintained in the scenarios analyzed, but in 5 out of 55 years unserved energy is observed when normal operations are maintained. There is 1 chance in 10 that a year will demonstrate unserved energy in August, which defines the system’s historical performance threshold to support impact, vulnerability, and adaptation analysis. For seasonal and longer term planning, i.e., multi-year drought, we demonstrate how the Water Scarcity Grid Impact Factor and climate oscillations (ENSO, PDO) can be used to plan for joint water-electricity management to maintain grid reliability.

adaptation↗