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At least 523 records · Page 29

Ozone Sensitivity to Varying Greenhouse Gases and Ozone-Depleting Substances in CCMI-1 Simulations

Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.

CCMI↗

An Intercomparative Study of the Effects of Aircraft Emissions on Surface Air Quality

This study intercompares, among five global models, the potential impacts of all commercial aircraft emissions worldwide on surface ozone and particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). The models include climate-response models (CRMs) with interactive meteorology, chemical-transport models (CTMs) with prescribed meteorology, and models that integrate aspects of both. Model inputs are harmonized in an effort to achieve a consensus about the state of understanding of impacts of 2006 commercial aviation emissions. Models find that aircraft increase near-surface ozone (0.3 to 1.9 percent globally), with qualitatively similar spatial distributions, highest in the Northern Hemisphere. Annual changes in surface-level PM (sub 2.5) in the CTMs (0.14 to 0.4 percent) and CRMs (-1.9 to 1.2 percent) depend on differences in nonaircraft baseline aerosol fields among models and the inclusion of feedbacks between aircraft emissions and changes in meteorology. The CTMs tend to result in an increase in surface PM (sub 2.5) primarily over high-traffic regions in the North American midlatitudes. The CRMs, on the other hand, demonstrate the effects of aviation emissions on changing meteorological fields that result in large perturbations over regions where natural emissions (e.g., soil dust and sea spray) occur. The changes in ozone and PM (sub 2.5) found here may be used to contextualize previous estimates of impacts of aircraft emissions on human health.

Air quality↗

Alignment and Bonding of Silicon Mirrors for High-Resolution Astronomical X-Ray Optics [10699-141]

Future large x-ray astronomy missions require large area and high resolution. The present consensus is to integrate thin, lightweight, segmented mirrors to form a compact but large telescope with high resolution (better than 1 sec). Key technologies: 1) Accurate mirror substrates: polishing high quality mono-crystalline silicon. 2) Stress-free reflective coating: stress-based distortion cancellation. 3) Precise alignment and integration: kinematic mounting and distortion-free bonding. Four-point alignment for quasi-cylindrically symmetric mirrors (segments) - 4-Point alignment: Pitch and yaw angles, image center (X, Y) are controlled by heights of the 4 mount points; Alignment Precision: better than 1 sec; Bonding error: approx. 0.1 micrometers (approx. 1 sec); Current single mirror pair x-ray tested: 3 sec (Half-Power Diameter). Integration into (meta) shell: Shell structure has rotationally defined axis; Interlocking mirrors means lightweight, mechanically strong telescope.

Chan, Kai-Wing↗

NASA's SnowEx Campaign and Measuring Global Snow from Space

Snow blankets 30% of Earth's land surface (60% of northern hemisphere land) in midwinter, dramatically changing our planet's land surface and affecting our weather for months. Seasonal snow is critically important to society for the management of water resources, natural hazards, water security, and in many economic sectors. The only practical way to estimate the quantity of snow on a global scale is through satellites. Despite 4 decades of satellite observations, the highly variable nature of snow still presents significant challenges toward achieving this goal. For example, current space-based techniques underestimate snow water equivalent (SWE) by as much as 50%, and model-based estimates can differ greatly versus estimates based on remotely-sensed observations. Snow community consensus is that a multi-sensor approach is needed to adequately address global snow, combined with modeling and data assimilation to fill the gaps in space and time. What remains, then, is how best to combine and use the various sensors under different types of snow conditions and confounding factors. NASA's multi-year SnowEx airborne campaign is designed to collect measurements needed to enable algorithm development and to guide those mission trade studies. Year 1 (2017) focused on the distribution of snow-water equivalent (SWE) and the snow energy balance in a forested environment. This paper will discuss the various remote sensing options for snow, the challenging factors, and describe the recently-completed first year of SnowEx in Colorado, USA. Ground-based remote sensing and in situ data collection involved nearly 100 participants over three weeks. The airborne campaign included nine sensors on five aircraft. We will conclude by discussing options for a future snow satellite mission.

campaign↗

2040 Vision: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Materials and System Modeling and Simulation

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will describe the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); associated critical gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations). This roadmap is a community consensus document and is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: i) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), ii) community-wide survey, and iii) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per key element) consisting on average 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. It is NASA's hope and desire that this roadmap provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

Multiscale Modeling↗

Towards a Rigorous Basis for Specific Operations Risk Assessment of UAS

The Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) guidance represents the consensus of various national aviation authorities on a common process to identify, qualitatively assess, and manage the safety risk posed by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), when preparing the safety case required for regulatory approval to conduct certain types of operations. As such, it can be considered a de facto standard, being increasingly adopted by various relevant stakeholders. This paper first gives an overview of the SORA process and associated methods, identifying a number of inconsistencies in risk identification and assessment, also discussing plausible strategies to close the associated gaps. Then, we give a well-founded basis for the applicable concepts, such as barrier integrity, assurance, and robustness, following which we present a preliminary and simple probabilistic formalization of the underpinning barrier-based safety model. We illustrate our overall approach through a worked example, also discussing how a Bayesian framework can facilitate extending and enhancing our initial formalization. We conclude with a discussion of the opportunities afforded by our approach, such as a well-founded basis for barrier selection, whilst addressing the associated challenges. The main objective of this work is to complement the current SORA guidance through a principled, mathematicallybased approach to risk assessment, particularly when it is applied to higher-risk operational concepts that warrant greater rigor in safety assessment and assurance.

Safety Cases↗

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

The NASA Eulerian Snow on Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) v1.0: initial model development and analysis

The NASA Eulerian Snow On Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) is a new, open-source snow budget model that is currentlyconfigured to produce daily estimates of the depth and density of snow on sea ice across the Arctic Ocean throughthe accumulation season. NESOSIM has been developed in a three-dimensional Eulerian framework and includes two(vertical) snow layers and several simple parameterizations (accumulation, wind packing, advection_divergence, blowingsnow lost to leads) to represent key sources and sinks of snow on sea ice. The model is forced with daily inputs of snowfall and near-surface winds (from reanalyses), sea ice concentration (from satellite passive microwave data) and sea ice drift (from satellite feature tracking) during the accumulation season (August through April). In this study, we present the NESOSIM formulation, calibration efforts, sensitivity studies and validation efforts across an Arctic Ocean domain (100 km horizontal resolution). The simulated snow depth and density are calibrated with in situ data collected on drifting ice stations during the 1980s. NESOSIM shows strong agreement with the in situ seasonal cycles of snow depth and density, and shows good (moderate) agreement with the regional snow depth (density) distributions. NESOSIM is run for a contemporary period (2000 to 2015), with the results showing strong sensitivity to the reanalysis derived snowfall forcing data, with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) forced snow depths generally higher than ERA-Interim,and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) generally lower. We also generate and force NESOSIM with a consensus "median" daily snowfall dataset from these reanalyses.The results are compared against snow depth estimates derived from NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) snow radar data from 2009 to 2015, showing moderate_strong correlations and root mean squared errors of 10 cm depending on the OIB snow depth product analyzed, similar to the comparisons between OIB snow depths and the commonly used modified Warren snow depth climatology. Potential improvements to this initial NESOSIM formulation are discussed in the hopes of improving the accuracy and reliability of these simulated snow depths and densities.

Petty, Alek A.↗

White Papers for the Next Decadal Survey: Thermal Protection Systems and Instrumentation

NASA is anticipated to commission the next Planetary Science Decadal Survey (PSDS) with preparation expected in early calendar year 2020. The new PSDS will outline the priorities of science missions for the decade spanning 2023-2032. For the previous PSDS, the science and technology communities have been invited to submit white papers to the PSDS sub-panels as background information to guide the PSDS recommendations. The National Research Council has previously stated that white papers that represent the opinion of many authors from different institutions carried more significant and weight, and the recommendations from the previous PSDS attempted to reflect more of a consensus opinion.In 2009, a total of 4 white papers were submitted to the PSDS panels regarding thermal protection system (TPS) readiness for missions, as well as one on TPS instrumentation. The TPS readiness papers were co-authored by 90 individuals from many institutions. These white papers surveyed the TPS materials for both forebody and afterbody of a probe and analyzed the suitability of materials for missions to each destination. In addition, each paper outlined the ground testing required and ongoing technology development. Recommendations were provided for further technology development and ground test capability in order to fulfill future missions. Planning for the next PSDS: Many improvements and changes have occurred in the past 10 years with regard to TPS materials and instrumentation. New materials have been developed and tested, such as the high density material Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET), and new capabilities for ground testing for high heating and high pressures have been added such as the 3” nozzle at the Ames arc jet. NASA has also flown several TPS instrumentation suites, such as MEDLI and EFT-1.In order to provide the PSDS sub-panels with the most current information about the state-of-the-art suit-ability for TPS materials for entry missions, we are be-ginning to update and draft new white papers. We will present the outline for material to be covered in the white papers, and we invite all IPPW attendees to parti-ciate in co-authoring these papers.

Hwang, H. H.↗

Compensation of Oxygen Transmittance Effects for Proximal Sensing Retrieval of Canopy-Leaving Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

Estimates of Sun-Induced vegetation chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) using remote sensing techniques are commonly determined by exploiting solar and/or telluric absorption features. When SIF is retrieved in the strong oxygen (O2) absorption features, atmospheric effects must always be compensated. Whereas correction of atmospheric effects is a standard airborne or satellite data processing step, there is no consensus regarding whether it is required for SIF proximal-sensing measurements nor what is the best strategy to be followed. Thus, by using simulated data, this work provides a comprehensive analysis about how atmospheric effects impact SIF estimations on proximal sensing, regarding: (1) the sensor height above the vegetated canopy; (2) the SIF retrieval technique used, e.g., Fraunhofer Line Discriminator (FLD) family or Spectral Fitting Methods (SFM); and (3) the instrument's spectral resolution. We demonstrate that for proximal-sensing scenarios compensating for atmospheric effects by simply introducing the O2 transmittance function into the FLD or SFM formulations improves SIF estimations. However, these simplistic corrections still lead to inaccurate SIF estimations due to the multiplication of spectrally convolved atmospheric transfer functions with absorption features. Consequently, a more rigorous oxygen compensation strategy is proposed and assessed by following a classic airborne atmospheric correction scheme adapted to proximal sensing. This approach allows compensating for the O2 absorption effects and, at the same time, convolving the high spectral resolution data according to the corresponding Instrumental Spectral Response Function (ISRF) through the use of an atmospheric radiative transfer model. Finally, due to the key role of O2 absorption on the evaluated proximal-sensing SIF retrieval strategies, its dependency on surface pressure (p) and air temperature (T) was also assessed. we combined simulated spectral data with p and T measurements obtained for a one-year period in the Hyytiala Forestry Field Station in Finland. Of importance hereby is that seasonal dynamics in terms of T and p, if not appropriately considered as part of the retrieval strategy, can result in erroneous SIF seasonal trends that mimic those of known dynamics for temperature-dependent physiological responses of vegetation.

"sun–induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF); pro↗

Proposal for a Sample Pilot Response Model

Regulations to establish operational and performance requirements for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being developed by a consortium of government, industry and academic institutions. Those requirements will apply to the new detect and avoid (DAA) systems and other equipment necessary to integrate UAS with the National Airspace System (NAS) and are determined according to their contribution to the overall safety case for such an integration. In order to perform end-to-end verification and validation of DAA requirements, a committee accepted pilot response model is needed to emulate UAS pilots in closed-loop Monte Carlo fast-time simulations. This briefing focuses on background of the pilot model used in previous Airspace Concept Evaluation System studies, identification of strengths and weaknesses in that model, and proposals on model improvements. The briefing also looks to build consensus around a common architecture and assumptions for modeling the pilot for UAS DAA systems.

Santiago, Confesor↗

White Papers for the Next Decadal Survey: Thermal Protection Systems and Instrumentation

NASA is anticipated to commission the next Planetary Science Decadal Survey (PSDS) with preparation expected in early calendar year 2020. The new PSDS will outline the priorities of science missions for the decade spanning 2023-2032. For the previous PSDS, the science and technology communities have been invited to submit white papers to the PSDS sub-panels as background information to guide the PSDS recommendations. The National Research Council has previously stated that white papers that represent the opinion of many authors from different institutions carried more significance and weight, and the recommendations from the previous PSDS attempted to reflect more of a consensus opinion. In 2009, a total of 4 white papers were submitted to the PSDS panels regarding thermal protection system (TPS) readiness for missions, as well as one on TPS instrumentation. The TPS readiness papers were co-authored by 90 individuals from many institutions. These white papers surveyed the TPS materials for both forebody and afterbody of a probe and analyzed the suitability of materials for missions to each destination. In addition, each paper outlined the ground testing required and ongoing technology development. Recommendations were provided for further technology development and ground test capability in order to fulfill future missions. Many improvements and changes have occurred in the past 10 years with regard to TPS materials and instrumentation. New materials have been developed and tested, such as the high density material Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET), and new capabilities for ground testing for high heating and high pressures have been added such as the 3-inch nozzle at the Ames arc jet. NASA has also flown several TPS instrumentation suites, such as MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) and EFT-1 (Exploration Flight Test-1). In order to provide the PSDS sub-panels with the most current information about the state-of-the-art suitability for TPS materials for entry missions, we are beginning to update and draft new white papers. We will present the outline for material to be covered in the white papers, and we invite all IPPW (International Planetary Probe Workshop) attendees to particiate in co-authoring these papers.

Hwang, Helen H.↗

Development of an Accepted Medical Condition List for Exploration Medical Capability Scoping

The Accepted Medical Conditions List (AMCL) is a product designed to provide a traceable, repeatable, evidence-based consensus process for scoping the medical capability needs for future design reference missions (DRMs) and upcoming programs. These include a Mars transit DRM and a shorter duration cis-lunar DRM. The development of a baseline AMCL by the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element will assist the effort to identify high priority medical capabilities for inclusion in mission and vehicle planning and provide traceable and documented clinical needs to the Systems Engineering teams tasked with requirements development and design work.

Medical Condition List↗

Capturing Complete Spatial Context in Satellite Observations of Greenhouse Gases

Scientific consensus from a 2015 pre-Decadal Survey workshop highlighted the essential need for a wide-swath (mapping) low earth orbit (LEO) instrument delivering carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements with global coverage. OCO-2 pioneered space-based CO2 remote sensing, but lacks the CH4, CO and mapping capabilities required for an improved understanding of the global carbon cycle. The Carbon Balance Observatory (CARBO) advances key technologies to enable high-performance, cost-effective solutions for a space-based carbon-climate observing system. CARBO is a compact, modular, 15-30° field of view spectrometer that delivers high-precision CO2, CH4, CO and solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data with weekly global coverage from LEO. CARBO employs innovative immersion grating technologies to achieve diffraction-limited performance with OCO-like spatial (2 x 2 sq.km) and spectral (λ/Δλ≈ 20,000) resolution in a package that is >50% smaller, lighter and more cost-effective. CARBO delivers a 25- to 50-fold increase in spatial coverage compared to OCO-2 with no loss of detection sensitivity. Individual CARBO modules weigh < 20 kg, opening diverse new space-based platform opportunities.

Miller, Charles E.↗

Defining and Measuring Pressure Gain

This presentation describes experimental and computational approaches to measuring pressure gain in the various devices currently under investigation wherein the working fluid undergoes a pressure gain combustion (PGC) process. Pressure gain is essentially a measure of the fluid availability for work or thrust production. The devices covered are Resonant Pulse Combustors, Internal Combustion Wave Rotors, Pulse Detonation Engines, and Rotating Detonation Engines. The approaches to pressure gain measurement differ in each device. However, all of the approaches attempt to address the fundamental challenges of PGC system measurement: the extremely harsh environment which makes instrumentation difficult, and the temporal and spatial non-uniformity associated with the exhausting flow which makes assigning a single value to the total pressure difficult. As part of the two-day 2019 International Constant Volume and Detonative Combustion Workshop, held in conjunction with the 2019 AIAA Propulsion and Energy Forum, this presentation is intended to foster discussion and eventual consensus on acceptable measurement methods.

pressure gain combustion↗

Transcriptomics and Proteomics Discussion

This presentation will cover the the basic pipelines for transcriptomics and proteomics that the GeneLab Analysis Working Groups (AWGs) have so far determined to be optimal. Basic transcriptomic pipelines will first be presented from primary analysis to higher-order systems analysis. Examples of how the data has been analyzed will be presented. Proteomics pipelines will also be presented compiled from various AWG members. Discussion will be generated from the AWG members to reach a consensus for each omic type.

Transcriptomics↗

In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance (ISSA) Concept of Operations

Emerging operations involving Urban Air Mobility (UAM) poses a challenge to safety assurance and accessibility to the NAS. In particular, the public has a low tolerance for risk in aviation and the current NAS tends to be labor-intensive with limited ability to scale up for UAM. In response to this landscape, NASA is collaborating with industry to define an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) Concept of Operations (ConOps) for a scalable UAM along with a service-oriented architecture. This architecture would better focus safety investments for technological solutions that overcome safety related barriers for emerging operations. By working with industry, consensus can be reached on desirable system traits that are based on integration of data and leverage increasingly autonomous and automated systems. These complex systems can identify anomalies, precursors, and trends that together enable more proactive management of operational risks.

Ellis, Kyle↗