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NASA NTRS2019

Refinement of Vortex Generators in a Streamline-Traced, External-Compression Supersonic Inlet

Computational simulations of the flow within a streamline-traced, external-compression supersonic inlet for Mach 1.664 without and with vortex generators were performed to refine the characterization of the inlet performance as measured by the total pressure recovery and the radial and circumferential total pressure distortion indices at the engine face. The refinement of the simulations concerned two aspects: 1) refinement of the grid for the simulations to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, and 2) refinement of the modeling and design of the vortex generators. The vortex generators studied were rectangular vane-type vortex generators arranged in co-rotating arrays within the subsonic diffuser. The vortex generator geometric factors of interest included the height, circumferential spacing, and angle-of-incidence. The flow through the inlet was simulated numerically through the solution of the steady-state, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations on multi-block, structured grids using the Wind-US flow solver. The vortex generators were simulated using either a vortex generator model or with grids generated about each vortex generator. Statistical methods were used to compute confidence intervals and grid convergence indices to establish the uncertainties of the analyses with respect to grid refinement. Design-of-experiments methods were applied to quantify the effects of the geometric factors of the vortex generators. The analyses of the computed results illustrate the complexities of quantifying the uncertainties of the inlet performance and the implications of the uncertainties for the design of a vortex generator array for the STEX inlet.

Slater, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flight Deck Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO): A Four-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT) Simulation

In four-dimensional trajectory (4DT) Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO), aircraft are assigned a conflict-free 4DT which defines an expected location (x,y coordinates) at all times, t, along the taxi route (with altitude, being fixed). These 4DTs afford the highest temporal certainty at all points along the taxi route, and at the departure runway. In the present study, a 4DT flight deck display was presented on the Airport Moving Map (AMM) to support pilot conformance to a 4DT clearance while taxiing under manual control. This pilot-in-the-loop simulation compared the effect of 4DT flight deck display formats on distance from the expected 4DT location, conformance to the displayed tolerance band, eyes-out time, and pilot ratings of safety and workload. In the defined-tolerance display format, a graphical representation of the expected 4DT location, with a distance-based allowable-tolerance band, was depicted on the AMM. Two defined-tolerance band sizes were tested: plus or minus 164 feet and plus or minus 405 feet. In the undefined-tolerance display format, the expected 4DT location was displayed graphically on the AMM, with no indicated allowable-tolerance bounds. Each taxi trial included 4DT speed changes (two or five, per trial) and a range of 4DT taxi speeds. Results showed that the larger (plus or minus 405 feet) defined-tolerance band yielded higher conformance levels than the smaller (plus or minus 164 feet) band, with pilots staying within the specified and displayed conformance bounds more in the larger (99.71%) than the smaller defined-tolerance band (93.37 percent). However, in terms of being able to predict the location of the aircraft compared to the expected 4DT location, the smaller defined-tolerance band resulted in pilots keeping their aircraft closer to the 4DT location, for both average distance and for a given confidence interval (e.g., 95 percent), than either the larger defined-tolerance band or the undefined-tolerance display format. The larger tolerance band yielded more “eyes-out-the-window” time than the smaller tolerance band. Pilots also rated taxing with the larger tolerance band as safer than the smaller tolerance band.

STBO↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dynamic Testing of a High-Specific-Torque Concentric Magnetic Gear

This paper presents initial measurements of the efficiency of NASA's 2nd magnetic gear prototype. A detailed discussion of the test rig's design and capabilities was presented, along with a thorough uncertainty analysis. The reported uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals that include the effects of temperature and parasitic loads. The prototype's response was measured at output speeds between 124 rpm and 744 rpm for a controlled output torque of 10 Nm (8% of the prototype's maximum torque). After correcting for tare losses, the prototype's efficiency was found to decrease from 90.0% to 83.0% as speed increased. If the efficiency is extrapolated to a typical operating condition (85% of maximum torque) using the good assumption that energy loss is approximately independent of the transmitted torque, the expected efficiency would be 99.0% to 98.4%, which exceeds the state of the art for these speeds.

magnetic gears↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dynamic Testing of a High-Specific-Torque Concentric Magnetic Gear

This presentation presents measurements of the efficiency of NASA's 2nd magnetic gear prototype. A detailed discussion of the test rig used to make these measurements was presented, including a thorough uncertainty analysis. The reported uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals that include the effects of temperature and parasitic loads. The prototype's response was measured at output speeds between 124 rpm and 744 rpm for a controlled output torque of 10 Nm (8% of the prototype's maximum torque). After correcting for tare losses, the prototype's efficiency was found to decrease from 90.0% to 83.0% as speed increased. If the efficiency is extrapolated to a typical operating condition (85% of maximum torque) using the good assumption that energy loss is approximately independent of the transmitted torque,the expected efficiency would be 99.0% to 98.4%, which exceeds the state of the art for these speeds.

Scheidler, Justin↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El NiÃ±o (the warm phase of the El NiÃ±o Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El NiÃ±o needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗

NASA NTRS2019

High Speed Testing of a High Efficiency Concentric Magnetic Gear

Scheidler, Justin↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aeroelastic Uncertainty Quantification of a Low-Boom Aircraft Configuration

As the state of the art in uncertainty quantification for low-boom aircraft advances, the underlying assumption of a rigid airframe must be revisited. The goal of this research is to investigate the impact of uncertainties in aeroelastic deformation of a low-boom aircraft on ground noise. Variations in structural properties and uncertainties in loading, derived from flight conditions, both factor into the overall aeroelastic deformation and subsequently the ground noise. Incorporation of these aeroelastic uncertainties in the prediction of ground noise during the design phase can lead to improved robustness. In this paper, a review of methodologies and techniques employed in low-boom uncertainty quantification will be given. In addition, methods for aeroelastic uncertainty quantification are integrated into the previous work and a generalized set of procedures is established. In a case study implementing the analysis procedures, ground noise generated from a static aeroelastic deformed low-boom aircraft increased slightly over that from the undeformed geometry for both undertrack and offtrack angles. Ground noise sensitivities to uncertainties in near field conditions and structural parameters varied significantly with atmospheric profiles. Shifts in confidence interval width in addition to shifts in deterministic values of ground noise were observed while varying atmospheric conditions.

Phillips, Benjamin D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H↗

NASA NTRS2020

Probability of Decompression Sickness and Venous Gas Emboli from 49 NASA Hypobaric Chamber Tests with Reference to Exploration Atmosphere

Introduction: Decompression sickness (DCS) is a complex biophysical event; it combines human perception of pain, for instance, and the presence of a gas phase in the tissues. Living tissues are complex and dynamic. Micronuclei and later bubbles may or may not form given what appears to be the same conditions. Even when bubbles grow, symptoms may or may not develop under what appears to be the same conditions. Therefore, at this time it is appropriate to consider DCS as a probabilistic rather than a deterministic event. Methods: Probabilistic models about hypobaric DCS and venous gas emboli (VGE) require a large amount of quality research data, a definition of decompression dose using physical and physiologic variables, and a flexible analytical approach that can quantify the association between each outcome and all covariates of interest (assuming independence between DCS and VGE) and then ultimately be extended to acknowledge dependencies between DCS and VGE. Our DCS and VGE data are from 1,031 hypobaric decompressions from 1983 to 2016. A total of 577 humans participated in 49 hypobaric chamber tests to evaluate denitrogenation procedures used by astronauts in the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. We defined decompression dose as the ratio of computed nitrogen tension in a theoretical 360-minute half-time compartment to ambient pressure, which accounts for denitrogenation and exposure pressure as well as explanatory variables such as age, sex, body mass index, and the presence or absence of ambulation as part of exercise at the exposure pressure. A parametric survival model, using a log-logistic distribution, was used to quantify the time to development of DCS, VGE, and Grade IV VGE. Results: Our survival estimates are applicable to simple hypobaric decompressions, such as depressurizations in 5 to 30 minutes to exposure pressures between 4 and 10 pounds per square inch absolute (psia) and after minutes to hours of denitrogenation, either under resting or exercise conditions to accelerated denitrogenation. The regressions are applicable to exposures between 2 to 6 hours and under conditions of ambulation or no ambulation as part of exercise at the test pressure. We estimate that an exposure to 4.3 psia with simulated extravehicular activity (EVA) that includes ambulation after equilibration to the exploration atmosphere at 8.2 psia with a 34% oxygen atmosphere will result in 3.1% DCS (1.8% to 5.2 95% confidence interval), 23.2% VGE (16.7 to 31.2%), and 8.5% Grade IV VGE (4.7 to 14.7%) in equal samples of men and women exposed for 6 hours. Discussion: Probabilistic models for DCS, VGE, and Grade IV VGE can be used to inform those that plan future EVAs. Their applications are useful to quantify the risk of DCS and VGE in astronauts that perform EVAs in low-pressure space suits while in space or while exploring the surfaces of the moon or Mars.

Johnny Conkin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Martensitic Transition Temperatures for Shape Memory Alloys

Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are a unique class of materials with several remarkable properties including shape recovery, superelasticity, etc. Especially important for many NASA applications is the ability to tune the martensitic phase transition temperature by varying the alloy composition. Nickel-titanium (NiTi) based alloys are the most widely studied of this class, with compositions involving ternary, quaternary, or higher additions being considered. Over the past several years, a significant database of SMA properties has been assembled by NASA researchers. Such a database is ideal for data science-based approaches including machine learning. We present results from a developed machine learning model capable of accurately predicting the transition temperature of SMAs across a wide range of compositions. Our model has the added benefit of interpretability and even provides confidence intervals for our predictions. This model will make rapid screening and design of new SMA materials possible. Predictions from the machine learning model can be validated by empirical and/or atomistic scale modeling.

Shreyas Honrao↗

NASA NTRS2020

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗

NASA NTRS2020

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 μg m−3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 μg m−3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions are key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Emission controls↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Congruence of Clusters Defined By Whole Genome Sequencing and MALDI-TOF for Bacteria Isolated From Cleanrooms

Introduction: Oligotrophic conditions can render cleanrooms inhospitable to microbes. Despite these constraints, fungi and bacteria are frequently isolated from surfaces in astromaterials cleanrooms at the Johnson Space Center. Bacillus species are of particular concern because endospores belonging to this genus are resilient and can affect astromaterials. Current monitoring programs rely on 16S rRNA sequencing and the VITEK2 Compact system. These methods have limited power to resolve Bacillus species. Matrix-assisted laser desorption - time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), provides a rapid, low cost, method of identifying bacterial isolates and has a higher resolution than 16S rRNA sequencing, particularly for Bacillus species; however, few studies have compared this method to the industry gold standard, whole genome sequencing (WGS). Methods: Based on 16S rRNA classification, we selected 14 isolates for analysis with MALDI-TOF and WGS. Mass spectra were generated with MALDI-TOF MS and processed with custom scripts to identify clusters of closely related isolates and calculate a matrix of pairwise cosine similarity scores. Hybrid Illumina and Nanopore sequencing were used to generate draft genomes. Pairwise similarity scores were calculated from these genomes based on the average amino acid identity (AAI) predicted from single copy core genes. Congruence of clustering between these methods, was assessed by calculating adjusted Rand and Wallace coefficients. Results: Clusters of species generated from MALDI-TOF MS showed good agreement of phylotypes generated with WGS. Pairs of strains that were > 94% similar to each other in terms of predicted amino acid sequences consistently showed cosine similarities of mass spectra > 0.65 and, of the 9 clusters identified with WGS, 8 were identical with MALDI-TOF. This corresponds to an adjusted Rand index of 0.95 and a 95% confidence interval of 0.80 – 1.00 for adjusted Wallace coefficients. The only discordance was for a pair of isolates that were classified as Paenibacillus species. This pair showed relatively high similarity (0.84) in terms of MALDI-TOF MS but only 85% similarity in terms of AAI. Conclusion: This study shows that MALDI-TOF and WGS exhibit a similar ability to delineate Bacillus species isolated from cleanrooms and taxonomic units described by these two methods are consistent with one another. Since MALDI-TOF MS is low in cost and high in throughput, this approach appears to be an ideal option for routine microbial monitoring and identifying Bacillus species.

Farnaz Mazhari↗

NASA NTRS2021

Development and Validation of an Empirical Ocean Color Algorithm with Uncertainties: A Case Study with the Particulate Backscattering Coefficient

We explored how algorithm (model) and in situ measurement (observation) uncertainties can effectively be incorporated into empirical ocean color model development and assessment. In this study we focused on methods for deriving the particulate backscattering coefficient at 555 nm, b(bp)(555)/(m). We developed a simple empirical algorithm for deriving b(bp)(555) as a function of a remote sensing reflectance line height (LH) metric. Model training was performed using a high-quality bio-optical dataset that contains coincident in situ measurements of the spectral remote sensing reflectances, R(rs)(λ)/(sr), and the spectral particulate backscattering coefficients, b(bp)(λ). The LH metric used is defined as the magnitude of Rrs(555) relative to a linear baseline drawn between R(rs)(490) and R(rs)(670). Using an independent validation dataset, we compared the skill of the LH-based model with two other models. We used contemporary validation metrics, including bias and mean absolute error (MAE), that were corrected for model and observation uncertainties. The results demonstrated that measurement uncertainties do indeed impact contemporary validation metrics such as mean bias and MAE. Zeta-scores and z-tests for overlapping confidence intervals were also explored as potential methods for assessing model skill.

ocean color↗

NASA NTRS2019

GWTC-1: A Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog of Compact Binary Mergers Observedby LIGO and Virgo During the First and Second Observing Runs

We present the results from three gravitational-wave searches for coalescing compact binaries with component masses above1M during the first and second observing runs of the advanced gravitational-wave detector network. During the first observing run (O1), from September 12, 2015 to January 19, 2016, gravitational waves from three binary black hole mergers were detected. The second observing run (O2), which ran from November 30, 2016 to August 25, 2017, saw the first detection of gravitational waves from a binary neutron star in spiral, in addition to the observation of gravitational waves from a total of seven binary black hole mergers, four of which we report here for the first time: GW170729, GW170809, GW170818, and GW170823. For all significant gravitational-wave events, we provide estimates of the source properties. The detected binary black holes have total masses between18.6þ3.2−0.7M and 84.4þ15.8−11.1M and range in distance between 320þ120−110 and 2840þ1400−1360Mpc. No neutron star–black hole mergers were detected. In addition to highly significant gravitational-wave events, we also provide a list of marginal event candidates with an estimated false-alarm rate less than 1 per 30 days. From these results over the first two observing runs, which include approximately one gravitational-wave detection per 15 days of data searched, we infer merger rates at the 90% confidence intervals of 110−3840Gpc−3y−1 for binary neutron stars and 9.7−101Gpc−3y−1 for binary black holes assuming fixed population distributions and determine a neutron star–black hole merger rate 90% upper limit of 610Gpc−3y−1.

Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repairs Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Pull Force Test Results for Crimped Connections

Crimped electrical contacts are reliable when strict process controls are followed during manufacturing and accompanied by continuous process verification through pull force testing. Cable and wire harness assemblies’ standards are developed and refined over time to provide the minimum pull force that a crimp contact must meet before it breaks from the wire. However, in practice the failures occur at a much higher tensile strength than the minimum required. The first section of this paper reviewed 780 pull force test results provided by NASA Centers that were collected and analyzed to determine how the data compare to NASA’s pre-existing requirements from the cable/harness standards NASA-STD-8739.4 and IPC/WHMA-A-620B-S. The measured tensile strength of most of the contact/conductor pairs (i.e., Contact/Wires or C/W) exceeded the minimum pull force values of NASA-STD-8739.4 and IPC/WHMA-A-620 standards by at least 100%. The C/W pair samples’ tensile strength values followed a normal distribution with an average tensile strength value that was at least 182% of the minimum requirement, and all the samples analyzed passed the pull force testing. In addition, the 95% confidence interval of the average tensile strength distributions for several C/W pairs was determined and plotted as error bars to show that the C/W pairs will meet and surpass the requirements. The frequency of pull force testing can be problematic for projects because of the cost and availability of spare contacts for the destructive test. It is possible to reduce the frequency of pull force testing if at the beginning of the production run, the conditions of the crimp tool and materials are verified, and the settings of the tool remain unchanged throughout the process. However, the project needs to understand and evaluate the impact to risk from reducing the frequency of testing prior to implementing process changes.

Alejandra Constante↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repair Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, understanding how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes is vital for future mission planning. Past work has been done using historical International Space Station (ISS) data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available datasets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat (SH), and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA ISS maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases: the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS). Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair time for each failure and repair event. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to ensure a significant sample size for each class and accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. The authors applied these modeling methods to a case study of a crewed mission to the planned SH and produced expected corrective maintenance crew time distributions. The results produced an expected corrective maintenance crew time at over 24 hours per mission, and a maintenance crew time distribution that reflects the importance of planning for sufficient maintenance requirements each mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗