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DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate construction via weight parameterization of residual neural networks

Surrogate model development is a critical step for uncertainty quantification or other sample-intensive tasks for complex computational models. Here, in this work, we develop a multi-output surrogate form using a class of neural networks (NNs) that employ shortcut connections, namely Residual NNs (ResNets). ResNets are known to regularize the surrogate learning problem and improve the efficiency and accuracy of the resulting surrogate. Inspired by the continuous, Neural ODE analogy, we augment ResNets with weight parameterization strategy with respect to ResNet depth. Weight-parameterized ResNets regularize the NN surrogate learning problem and allow better generalization with a drastically reduced number of learnable parameters. We demonstrate that weight-parameterized ResNets are more accurate and efficient than conventional feed-forward multi-layer perceptron networks. We also compare various options for parameterization of the weights as functions of ResNet depth. We demonstrate the results on both synthetic examples and a large scale earth system model of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A newly proposed isotherm model to predict Cs exchange with crystalline silicotitanate in tank waste simulants

The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) computer model, a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST), has historically been used to predict Cs distribution coefficients from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Comparison of experimentally determined Cs distribution coefficients from tank waste simulants with ZAM isotherm model predictions indicate overprediction of Cs and K distribution coefficients for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST. Additionally, recent changes in chemical composition/manufacturing of IONSIV TM R9140-B have resulted in increased Cs capacity from high-salt, highly alkaline solutions. Here, this work served to assess different isotherm models and refine equilibrium parameters to develop a model that can be applied to Hanford and SRS tank waste Cs removal efforts. Toward this goal, the Campbell Westesen Peterson (CWP) model was developed. This model utilized the experimentally determined Cs capacity, and simplified ZAM equilibria expressions to include only the binary substitution of Cs + or K + on the Na + sites. Equilibrium constants for these equations were refined using experimentally determined distribution coefficients. Overall, the CWP model significantly improved our ability to predict both Cs and K loading capacity from complex matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling multihole Ge spins in quantum dot systems

Beyond the title, this talk is about improving the computational modeling of germanium hole spins in lithographic quantum dots to work towards a better understanding of how potential qubit properties of these systems are affected by the effective shell filling of these holes in the electric potential.

Brickson, Mitchell Ian↗

DOE OSTI2023

A general predictive methodology for fuel-mixture properties up to supercritical conditions

A predictive thermodynamic model is utilized for the calculation of fuel properties of oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OME 3–4 ), surrogates for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel, as well as alcohol blends with gasoline and diesel. The alcohols used for these blends are methanol, ethanol, propanol, butanol and pentanol; their mixing ratio ranges from 10 to 50% by volume. The model is based on the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state (EoS) and Vapor Liquid Equilibrium (VLE) calculations at constant temperature, density and composition. The model includes the association term, with the assumption of two association sites (2B scheme), to enable the modeling of alcohols. The pure-component parameters are estimated based on the Group Contribution (GC) method of various sources, as well as a parametrization model specifically designed for the case of OME 3–4 . The results of the computational model for the density, vapor pressure and distillation curves at various conditions, including high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT), are compared to experimental and computational data available in the literature. In the cases where no measurements are available for the surrogates, experimental data for the corresponding target fuel are used, taking into consideration the inherent deviation in properties between real and surrogate fuel. Overall, the results are in good agreement with the data from the literature, with the average deviation not exceeding 12% for temperature (Kelvin) on the distillation curves, 10% for density and 46% for vapor pressure and the general trend being captured successfully. The use of different pure component parameter estimation techniques can further improve the prediction quality in the cases of OME3–4 and the aviation fuel surrogate, especially for the vapor pressure, leading to an average deviation lower than 18%. These results demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model, which extend to a wide range of fuel types and pressure/temperature conditions. Through this investigation, the present work aims to establish the limits of applicability of this thermodynamic property prediction methodology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Static structural finite element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) module and a glass-glass thin film PV module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Parametric analyses using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) were performed to propagate simulation input uncertainties related to module material properties, dimensions, and manufacturing tolerances into expected uncertainties in simulated deflection predictions. This exercise verifies the applicability and validity of finite element modeling for predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules across architectures and enables computational models to be used with greater confidence in assessment of module mechanical stressors and design for reliability. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the uncertainty quantification data sets using linear correlation coefficients to elucidate the key parameters influencing module deformation. This information has implications on which materials or parameters may be optimized to best increase module stiffness and reliability, whether the key optimization parameters change with module architecture or loading magnitudes, and whether parameters such as frame design and racking must be replicated in reduced-scale reliability studies to adequately capture full module mechanical behavior.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Baylor University Campus-Wide Deep Dive

In January 2020, staff members from the Engagement and Performance Operations Center (EPOC) and the Lonestar Education And Research Network (LEARN) met with researchers and staff at Baylor University for the purpose of a Campus-Wide Deep Dive into research drivers. The goal of this meeting was to help characterize the requirements for five campus research use cases and to enable cyberinfrastructure support staff to better understand the needs of the researchers they support. Profiled scientific use cases included: - Experimental High Energy Physics (HEP) - Proton Computed Tomography (pCT) - Nutrition and Relation to Digestive Microbiome - Baylor University Core Research Facilities - Molecular Quantum-dot Cellular Automata (QCA), and Material Science of Quantum Computing - Modeling and Simulation of Low-Dimensional and Nano-Structured Materials - Computational Fluid Dynamics Material for this event included the written documentation from each of the research areas at Baylor University, documentation about the current state of technology support, and a write-up of the discussion that took place in person. The Case Studies highlighted the ongoing challenges that Baylor University has in supporting a cross-section of established and emerging research use cases. Each Case Study mentioned unique challenges which were summarized into common needs. These included: - Tradeoffs for network/software security, and usability of the resulting infrastructure. Better communication to set expectations and understand realities is required. - Computation use on campus is widespread and healthy. While no major problems were uncovered, upgrades to maintain current usage patterns and encourage growth will be required. - Storage is a critical need for enterprise use cases and research. In particular, a campus wide ‘storage architecture’ to support research use cases (e.g. instruments, data sharing) is required in the 2-5 year time window. - Instrumentation on campus is healthy and expanding. Technology must scale with this in the form of computation and storage. - Working with LEARN to upgrade network capacity (in multiples of 10G, or upgrades to 100G) will be required in the 1-3 year time frame. - Network monitoring and visibility will help to establish external science use cases. - Data sharing via portal systems is not currently a critical need, but growing in scope. EPOC can assist Baylor with options.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

White paper on Verification and Validation for Cyber Emulation Models

All disciplines that use models to predict the behavior of real-world systems need to determine the accuracy of the models’ results. Techniques for verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) focus on improving the credibility of computational models and assessing their predictive capability. VVUQ emphasizes rigorous evaluation of models and how they are applied to improve understanding of model limitations and quantify the accuracy of model predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclide Inventory Benchmark for BWR Spent Nuclear Fuel: Challenges in Evaluation of Modeling Data Assumptions and Uncertainties

This work discusses challenges and approaches to uncertainty analyses associated with the development of a nuclide inventory benchmark for fuel irradiated in a boiling water reactor. The benchmark under consideration is being developed based on experimental data from the SFCOMPO international database. The focus herein is on how to address missing data in fuel design and operating conditions that are important for adequately simulating the time-dependent changes in fuel during irradiation in the reactor. The effects of modeling assumptions and uncertainties in modeling parameters on the calculated nuclide inventory were analyzed and quantified through computational models developed using capabilities in the SCALE code system. Particular attention was given to the impact of the power history and water coolant density on the calculated nuclide inventory, as well as to the effect of geometry modeling considerations not usually addressed in a nuclide inventory benchmark. These considerations include gap closure, channel bow, and channel corner radius, which do not usually apply to regular reactor operation but are relevant for assessing impacts of potential anomalous operating scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale modeling and cinematic visualization of photosynthetic energy conversion processes from electronic to cell scales

We report conversion of sunlight into chemical energy, namely photosynthesis, is the primary energy source of life on Earth. A visualization depicting this process, based on multiscale computational models from electronic to cell scales, is presented in the form of an excerpt from the fulldome show Birth of Planet Earth. This accessible visual narrative shows a lay audience, including children, how the energy of sunlight is captured, converted, and stored through a chain of proteins to power living cells. The visualization is the result of a multi-year collaboration among biophysicists, visualization scientists, and artists, which, in turn, is based on a decade-long experimental-computational collaboration on structural and functional modeling that produced an atomic detail description of a bacterial bioenergetic organelle, the chromatophore. Software advancements necessitated by this project have led to significant performance and feature advances, including hardware-accelerated cinematic ray tracing and instanced visualizations for efficient cell-scale modeling. The energy conversion steps depicted feature an integration of function from electronic to cell levels, spanning nearly 12 orders of magnitude in time scales. This atomic detail description uniquely enables a modern retelling of one of humanity’s earliest stories—the interplay between light and life.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building thermal dynamics modeling with deep transfer learning using a large residential smart thermostat dataset

Understanding thermal dynamics and obtaining the computational model of residential buildings enable its scaled application in energy retrofits, control optimization and decarbonization. In this paper, we present a deep learning approach to model building thermal dynamics with smart thermostat data collected from residential buildings, with the goal to investigate model generalizability. In the first stage, we developed and compared different Deep Learning architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models and CNN-LSTM to predict indoor air temperature in a multi-step time horizon. In the second stage, we implemented a Transfer Learning (TL) process, which aims to improve the prediction performance on a new set of buildings (targets), exploiting the knowledge of related or similar buildings (sources). Different TL strategies and source model identification methods were investigated. The study showed that the CNN-LSTM performed the best among the architectures compared, with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.26 °C for one-hour-ahead (twelve 5-min future steps) predictions. Furthermore, the results showed that freezing the LSTM layer and fine-tuning the other layers of the CNN-LSTM achieved the best performance among four TL strategies, which further improved the performance with respect to a machine learning approach by 10%, and proving the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach. A comparison of three different source model identification methods showed that randomly selecting source models constrained by similar building characteristics can provide good TL performance while retaining simplicity comparing with other quantitative source identification methods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unified Wind-Wave Growth and Spectrum Functions for All Water Depths: Field Observations and Model Results

Abstract Wind-wave development is governed by the fetch- or duration-limited growth principle that is expressed as a pair of similarity functions relating the dimensionless elevation variance (wave energy) and spectral peak frequency to fetch or duration. Combining the pair of similarity functions, the fetch or duration variable can be removed to form a dimensionless function of elevation variance and spectral peak frequency, which is interpreted as the wave energy evolution with wave age. The relationship is initially developed for quasi-neural stability and quasi-steady wind forcing conditions. Further analyses show that the same fetch, duration, and wave-age similarity functions are applicable to unsteady wind forcing conditions, including rapidly accelerating and decelerating mountain gap wind episodes and tropical cyclone (TC) wind fields. Here it is shown that with the dimensionless frequency converted to dimensionless wavenumber using the surface wave dispersion relationship, the same similarity function is applicable in all water depths. Field data collected in shallow to deep waters and mild to TC wind conditions and synthetic data generated by spectrum model computations are assembled to illustrate the applicability. For the simulation work, the finite-depth wind-wave spectrum model and its shoaling function are formulated for variable spectral slopes. Given wind speed, wave age, and water depth, the measured and spectrum-computed significant wave heights and the associated growth parameters are in good agreement in forcing conditions from mild to TC winds and in all depths from deep ocean to shallow lake. Significance Statement This paper presents a growth function and spectrum model to describe wind-wave development in all water depths. Their applicability covers a wide range of wind forcing conditions including steady, accelerating, decelerating, and tropical cyclone events. Support for the unified spectrum model and growth function is presented with field observations and numerical computations.

Hwang, Paul A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced‐Order Modeling of Energetic Materials Using Physics‐Aware Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks in a Latent Space (LatentPARC)

Physics-aware deep learning (PADL) has gained popularity for use in spatiotemporal dynamics simulations, such as those in computational modeling of energetic materials (EM). We show that the challenge PADL methods face while learning complex field evolution problems can be simplified and accelerated by decoupling it into two tasks: learning complex geometric features in evolving fields and modeling dynamics over these features in a lower-dimensional feature space. We build upon our previous work on physics-aware recurrent convolutional neural networks (PARC). PARC embeds knowledge of underlying physics into its neural network architecture for more robust and accurate prediction of evolving physical fields. PARC was shown to effectively learn complex nonlinear features such as the formation of hotspots and coupled shock fronts in various initiation scenarios of EMs, as a function of microstructures, serving effectively as a microstructure-aware burn model. Here, we further accelerate PARC and reduce its computational cost by projecting the original dynamics onto a lower-dimensional invariant manifold, or “latent space.” The projected latent representation encodes the complex geometry of evolving fields (e.g., temperature and pressure) in a set of data-driven features. The reduced dimension of this latent space allows us to learn the dynamics during the initiation of EM with a lighter and more efficient model. We observe a significant decrease in training and inference time while maintaining results comparable to PARC at inference. This work takes steps towards enabling rapid prediction of EM thermomechanics at larger scales and characterization of EM structure–property–performance linkages at a full application scale.

Mathematics and Computing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Formulation of a one-dimensional electrostatic plasma model for testing the validity of kinetic theory

Here, we present a one-dimensional (1-D) model composed of aligned, electrostatically interacting charged disks, conceived to address in a computable model the validity of the Bogoliubov assumption on the decay of particle correlations in the Born–Bogoliubov–Green–Kirkwood–Yvon hierarchy. This assumption is a basic premise of plasma kinetic theory. The disk model exhibits spatially 1-D features at short distances, but retains 3-D features at large distances. Here the collective dynamics of this model plasma is investigated by solving the corresponding Vlasov equation. In addition, the implementation of the model for the numerical validation of the Bogoliubov assumption is formulated.

1-D plasma model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗

DOE OSTI2021

Perspectives on multiscale modelling and experiments to accelerate materials development for fusion

Prediction of material performance in fusion reactor environments relies on computational modelling, and will continue to do so until the first generation of fusion power plants come on line and allow long-term behaviour to be observed. In the meantime, the modelling is supported by experiments that attempt to replicate some aspects of the eventual operational conditions. In 2019, a group of leading experts met under the umbrella of the IEA to discuss the current position and ongoing challenges in modelling of fusion materials and how advanced experimental characterisation is aiding model improvement. This review draws from the discussions held during that workshop. Topics covering modelling of irradiation-induced defect production and fundamental properties, gas behaviour, clustering and segregation, defect evolution and interactions are discussed, as well as new and novel multiscale simulation approaches, and the latest efforts to link modelling to experiments through advanced observation and characterisation techniques.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

One‐at‐a‐Time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land Model, Version 5.1

Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.

Kennedy, Daniel [NSF National Center for Atmospher↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quarterly Management Document – FY20, 1st Quarter, Physics-based Creep Simulations of Thick Section Welds in High Temperature and Pressure Applications

During the first quarter of FY20, efforts focused on calibrating a computational model using experimental data. The experimental creep data obtain from specimens containing weld metal exhibit considerable inherent variability making calibration of the computational difficult and may not result in an accurate model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A multiscale phase field fracture approach based on the non-affine microsphere model for rubber-like materials

Rubber-like materials have a broad scope of applications due to their unique properties like high stretchability and increased toughness. Hence, computational models for simulating their fracture behavior are paramount for designing them against failures. In this study, the phase field fracture approach is integrated with a multiscale polymer model for predicting the fracture behavior in elastomers. At the microscale, damaged polymer chains are modeled to be made up of a number of elastic chain segments pinned together. Using the phase field approach, the damage in the chains is represented using a continuous variable. Both the bond stretch internal energy and the entropic free energy of the chain are assumed to drive the damage, and the advantages of this assumption are expounded. A framework for utilizing the non-affine microsphere model for damaged systems is proposed here by considering the minimization of a hypothetical undamaged free energy, ultimately connecting the chain stretch to the macroscale deformation gradient. At the macroscale, a thermodynamically consistent formulation is derived in which the total dissipation is assumed to be mainly due to the rupture of molecular bonds. Using a monolithic scheme, the proposed model is numerically implemented and the resulting three-dimensional simulation predictions are compared with existing experimental data. The capability of the model to qualitatively predict the propagation of complex crack paths and quantitatively estimate the overall fracture behavior is verified. Additionally, the effect of the length scale parameter on the predicted fracture behavior is studied for an inhomogeneous system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗