Results for “COST ESTIMATION” — Page 29

NASA NTRS1991

Technology needs for lunar and Mars space transfer systems

The determination of appropriate space transportation technologies and operating modes is discussed with respect to both lunar and Mars missions. Three levels of activity are set forth to examine the sensitivity of transportation preferences including 'minimum,' 'full science,' and 'industrialization and settlement' categories. High-thrust-profile missions for lunar and Mars transportation are considered in terms of their relative advantages, and transportation options are defined in terms of propulsion and braking technologies. Costs and life-cycle cost estimates are prepared for the transportation preferences by using a parametric cost model, and a return-on-investment summary is given. Major technological needs for the programs are listed and include storable propulsion systems; cryogenic engines and fluids management; aerobraking; and nuclear thermal, nuclear electric, electric, and solar electric propulsion technologies.

Woodcock, Gordon R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Estimate Early and Estimate Often: How Your Concurrent Engineering Design Team Can Bootstrap Your Organizations Programmatic Capabilities

What do you do when it is necessary to generate reasonable cost estimates at the earliest Concept Maturity Levels and you have never flown any similar missions before? This paper describes the current and future Team X and A-Team cost processes and methods, how they are being used to expand our data frontiers, cost modelling capabilities and how this enables the ability to estimate early and estimate often.

Hihn, Jairus↗

NASA NTRS1980

The design of low cost structures for extensive ground arrays

The development of conceptual designs of solar array support structures and their foundations including considerations of the use of concrete, steel, aluminum, or timber are reported. Some cost trends were examined by varying selected parameters to determine optimum configurations. Detailed civil/structural design criteria were developed. Using these criteria, eight detailed designs for support structures and foundations were developed and cost estimates were made. As a result of the study wind was identified as the major loading experienced by these low height structures, whose arrays are likely to extend over large tracts of land. Proper wind load estimating is considered essential to developing realistic structural designs and achieving minimum cost support structures. Wind tunnel testing of a conceptual array field was undertaken and some of the resulting wind design criteria are presented. The SPS rectenna system designs may be less sensitive to wind load estimates, but consistent design criteria remain important.

Franklin, H. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1973

Low-cost fabrication and installation of ablative heat shields for the space shuttle orbiter.

Description of the formulation and evaluation of low-density elastomeric ablative compounds and low-cost techniques for fabricating and installing ablative panels being considered for the Space Shuttle orbiter's thermal protection system. Sixteen large panels, both flat and contoured, were successfully fabricated and time-studied to develop and refine tooling and manufacturing methods and to establish a realistic baseline for estimating costs. Six of the panels were bonded to a DC-3 airframe. The work included a detailed estimate of fabrication and installation costs.

Norwood, L. B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Novel Binderjet Additive Heat Exchangers: A Pathway to 5¢/kWh CSP

General Electric (GE) Research is developing a Binderjet manufacturing processes and heat exchanger core design to enable low-cost high temperature Recuperators (HTR) for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles. The objective is to show a path for greater than or equal to 10% cost reduction for an HTR that enables meeting the DOE SunShot goal of 5c/kWh for CSP plants. As part of the DOE program, GE is developing a novel trifurcating heat exchanger (HX) for HTR using binderjet additive manufacturing process that could meet the cost targets. As part of the 2021 CSP summit presentation, GE demonstrates that the build control of HX cores using the binderjet process are within the program targets. Preliminary cost estimates of the overall heat exchanger using a modular HX design shows cost reductions greater than 10% target allowing significant margin for assembly and inspections costs. Additional cost reduction plans are also highlighted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1971

Information quality-control model

Model serves as graphic tool for estimating complete product objectives from limited input information, and is applied to cost estimations, product-quality evaluations, and effectiveness measurements for manpower resources allocation. Six product quality levels are defined.

Vincent, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Design study LANDSAT follow-on mission unique communications system

Spacecraft subsystem design, performance evaluation, and system tradeoffs are presented for the LANDSAT follow-on mission (LF/O) spacecraft to TDRSS link for the transmission of thematic mapper (TM) and multispectral scanner (MSS) data and for the LF/O spacecraft to STDN and other direct users link for the transmission of TM data. Included are requirements definition, link analysis, subsystem and hardware tradeoffs, conceptual selection, hardware definition, and identification of required new technology. Cost estimates of the recommended communication system including both recurring and non recurring costs are discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options: Study summary

Space station needs, attributes, and architectural options that affect the future implementation and design of a space station system are examined. Requirements for candidate missions are used to define functional attributes of a space station. Station elements that perform these functions form the basic station architecture. Alternative ways to accomplish these functions are defined and configuration concepts are developed and evaluated. Configuration analyses are carried to the point that budgetary cost estimates of alternate approaches could be made. Emphasis is placed on differential costs for station support elements and benefits that accrue through use of the station.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1998

Heuristics Applied in the Development of Advanced Space Mission Concepts

Advanced mission studies are the first step in determining the feasibility of a given space exploration concept. A space scientist develops a science goal in the exploration of space. This may be a new observation method, a new instrument or a mission concept to explore a solar system body. In order to determine the feasibility of a deep space mission, a concept study is convened to determine the technology needs and estimated cost of performing that mission. Heuristics are one method of defining viable mission and systems architectures that can be assessed for technology readiness and cost. Developing a viable architecture depends to a large extent upon extending the existing body of knowledge, and applying it in new and novel ways. These heuristics have evolved over time to include methods for estimating technical complexity, technology development, cost modeling and mission risk in the unique context of deep space missions. This paper examines the processes involved in performing these advanced concepts studies, and analyzes the application of heuristics in the development of an advanced in-situ planetary mission. The Venus Surface Sample Return mission study provides a context for the examination of the heuristics applied in the development of the mission and systems architecture. This study is illustrative of the effort involved in the initial assessment of an advance mission concept, and the knowledge and tools that are applied.

Nilsen, Erik N.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility Analysis for the Use of Retrofitted Air-Conditioners Using Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for High Ambient Temperature (HAT) Countries

In high ambient temperature (HAT) countries, summer temperatures exceed 35℃, degrading the performance of air-conditioning systems and straining power grids. In this paper, a feasibility analysis was conducted to investigate potential savings during the peak using latent Thermal Energy Storage (TES) at near room phase-change temperatures, replacing condensers, thus, minimizing temperature lifts. Weather data, building loads, and baseline air-conditioning systems data were gathered for Dubai. A transient vapor-compression model in Modelica was used to compare the COP, total power input and cooling capacity of the air-conditioner at peak hours when ambient temperatures range between 35 – 45 ⁰C versus the TES-Phase-Change Material (PCM) melting temperatures from 22 – 28⁰C. The results indicate that the TES-PCM can enhance the system COP at the peak by a factor 1.4 and 2 for during for outdoor temperatures of 35 – 40⁰C, and 40 – 45⁰C, respectively. Lower melting temperature PCMs were able to reduce the required power input by 30-50%, with more savings occurring at higher temperature days. On the other hand, higher temperature PCMs enhancements were minimal especially at outdoor ambient temperatures ranging between 35 – 40⁰C. Improvements to the cooling capacity range from 8 – 18 % for the outdoor temperature range of 35 – 45 ⁰C. An economic analysis was conducted to find the potential saving in utility costs for 30%, 60%, and 90% of the space cooling demands of Dubai, and find the trade-off points between utility savings and cost of PCM-TES implementation. If the peak loads are to be shifted by 6 hours daily, the percentage utility savings for the city is 18%. Using estimated costs of the PCM-TES, ranging from $200-500/kWh, the daily load shifting hours were estimated to range from 4 hours at the lowest cost systems to 2.5 hours at the highest costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States, proposing, assessing, justifying, and illustrating a major infrastructure change involving two of the worlds largest power grids. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.5, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.9, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of an Intermittent Binary Control Strategy for Distributed Aerodynamic Control Devices for Load Alleviation in Wind Turbine Blades

A study was conducted of an intermittent binary control strategy for trailing edge flaps and leading edge spoilers installed on wind turbine blades for the purpose of load alleviation. Cost estimation models were developed for the systems to predict overall impact on levelized cost of energy over the lifecycle of the turbine system. Aeroelastic simulations of turbines with the control strategy implemented showed improved levelized cost for some, but not all cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1979

Satellite communications for disaster relief operations

The use of existing and planned communication satellite systems to provide assistance in the implementation of disaster relief operations on a global basis was discussed along with satellite communications system implications and their potential impact on field operations in disaster situations. Consideration are given to the utilization of both INTELSAT and MARISAT systems operating at frequencies ranging from 1.5 to 4 GHz and to the size and type of ground terminals necessary for satellite access. Estimates of communication requirements for a global system are given. Some discussion of cost estimates for satellite services to support operations are included. Studies of communication satellites for both pre and post disaster applications conducted for NOAA are included as well as recent experiments conducted in conjunction with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the Agency for International Development.

Sivo, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1978

High temperature thermal energy storage in moving sand

Several high-temperature (to 500 C) heat-storage systems using sand as the storage medium are described. The advantages of sand as a storage medium include low cost for sand, widespread availability, non-toxicity, non-degradation characteristics, easy containment, and safety. The systems considered include: stationary sand with closely spaced tubes throughout the volume, the use of a fluidized bed, use of conveyor belt transporter, and the use of a blower rapid transport system. For a stationary sand bed, very close spacing of heat transfer tubes throughout the volume is required, manifesting as high power related system cost. The suggestion of moving sand past or around pipes is intended to reduce the power related costs at the penalty of added system complexity. Preliminary system cost estimates are offered. These rough calculations indicate that mobile sand heat storage systems cost less than the stationary sand approach.

Turner, R. H.↗