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At least 523 records · Page 29

Late Paleozoic Evolution of the Anadarko Basin: Implications for Laurentian Tectonics and the Assembly of Pangea

Abstract Interplay between marginal and intraplate late Paleozoic tectonics in southeastern Laurentia is a subject of debate. In southern Laurentia, intraplate deformation has been attributed to combinations of compressive forces from orogenic belts in the west, southwest, and southeast. While left‐lateral transpression is generally an accepted mechanism for formation of uplifts in the Southern Oklahoma Aulacogen (SOA), to date no studies have explained the driving mechanisms of these kinematics. Here, we analyze the Southern Oklahoma Transpressional System (SOTS), a ∼500 km long ∼50 km wide fault zone that extends from the southeastern Laurentian margin into the plate interior along Cambrian lithospheric weaknesses inherited from the SOA. We use a compilation of published studies to present detailed, time‐integrated sedimentary thickness maps of SOTS‐related basins. We combine these maps with a new interpretation of three 2D seismic reflection lines to constrain timing and kinematics of all major late Paleozoic SOTS fault zones. We show that the SOTS kinematics evolved from contraction to left‐lateral strike‐slip during Mississippian‐Pennsylvanian time. Tectonic activity and fault kinematics in the SOTS are explained by a model in which a remnant ocean basin closed diachronously from northeast to southwest along the Southern Appalachian and Ouachita‐Marathon orogens. Left‐lateral transpression during diachronous closure of the Rheic oceanic basin along the Ouachita‐Marathon margin is related to rotation of the stress field due to changes in slab‐pull and eastward drift of Laurentia toward Gondwana. We speculate that the SOTS acted in part as a STEP (subduction‐transfer edge propagator) fault that followed the pre‐existing SOA.

Hobbs, Noah. F.↗

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Abstract Prior research confirmed the substantial bias from using precipitation‐based intensity‐duration‐frequency curves (PREC‐IDF) in design flood estimates and proposed next‐generation IDF curves (NG‐IDF) that represent both rainfall and snow processes in runoff generation. This study improves the NG‐IDF technology for a snow‐dominated test basin in the Sierra Nevada. A well‐validated physics‐based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), is used to continuously simulate snowmelt and streamflow that are used as benchmark data sets to systematically assess the NG‐IDF technology. We find that, for the studied small snow‐dominated basin, the use of standard rainfall hyetographs in the NG‐IDF technology leads to substantial underestimation of design floods. Thus, we propose probabilistic hyetographs that can represent unique patterns of events with different underlying mechanisms. For the test basin where flooding events are generated entirely by snowmelt, we develop a hyetograph that characterizes snowmelt temporal patterns, which greatly improves the performance of NG‐IDF technology in design flood estimates. In contrast to the standard rainfall hyetographs characterized by a symmetrically peaked, bell‐shaped curve, the snowmelt hyetograph displays a more rapid rise (i.e., greater intensity) and a distinct diurnal pattern influenced by solar energy input. The results also show that the uncertainty of hyetography plays an important role in design flood estimation and can have important implications for future flood projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining Daily Temporal Characteristics of Oil and Gas Methane Emissions in the Delaware Basin Using Continuous Tower Observations

Top-down studies have found consistent underestimations in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methane emissions inventory from the oil and gas (O&G) sector. Many of these studies use observations that bias toward hours when worktime activity occurs. In this study, we analyze over 2 years of methane measurements from a tower network in the Delaware basin to analyze hourly temporal emission patterns. Inversion results suggest a range in emissions from 137 Mg/hr at night to 197 Mg/hr during the day, present during both weekdays and weekends. If these results are applicable to other basins, daytime-influenced methodologies may overestimate daily emission rates by up to 27%. This bias does not reconcile the more than 200% difference between the EPA inventory and top-down estimates in the Delaware basin. This study demonstrates how continuous measurement networks can be combined with detailed activity data to improve bottom-up inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fungal spores as a source of sodium salt particles in the Amazon basin

Salt containing aerosols play important roles in atmospheric chemistry and cloud formation, hence understanding and observationally constraining their sources are vital. In the Amazon basin, particles containing mixed sodium salts are routinely attributed to marine aerosols transported from the Atlantic Ocean. Here, using detailed chemical imaging analysis, we show that fungal spores emitted by the forest biosphere contribute to at least 30% (by number) of sodium salt particles observed in the central Amazon basin. Hydration experiments, using environmental microreactors complemented with micro32 spectroscopy analysis, we show that sodium-containing fungal spores have higher hygroscopic growth than sodium-free spores and their sodium content determines their growth factors. Modeling results suggest that fungal spores account for ~62% of the total sodium mass during the wet season and that their fractional contribution increases during nighttime. In sharp contrast with the assumption that sodium-containing aerosols arise solely from marine sources, our results suggest that locally-emitted fungal spores containing sodium contribute substantially to the number and mass of coarse particles containing Na and Cl (similar to sea salt). Furthermore, their role in cloud formation and contribution to salt cycles and the terrestrial ecosystem in the Amazon basin warrant further consideration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Sentinel-1 and GRACE satellite data to monitor the hydrological variations within the Tulare Basin, California

Abstract Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bifurcation characteristics and safe basin of MSMA microgripper subjected to stochastic excitation

A kind of magnetic shape memory alloy (MSMA) microgripper is proposed in this paper, and its nonlinear dynamic characteristics are studied when the stochastic perturbation is considered. Nonlinear differential items are introduced to explain the hysteretic phenomena of MSMA, and the constructive relationships among strain, stress, and magnetic field intensity are obtained by the partial least-square regression method. The nonlinear dynamic model of a MSMA microgripper subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation is developed. The stationary probability density function of the system’s response is obtained, the transition sets of the system are determined, and the conditions of stochastic bifurcation are obtained. The homoclinic and heteroclinic orbits of the system are given, and the boundary of the system’s safe basin is obtained by stochastic Melnikov integral method. The numerical and experimental results show that the system’s motion depends on its parameters, and stochastic Hopf bifurcation appears in the variation of the parameters; the area of the safe basin decreases with the increase of the stochastic excitation, and the boundary of the safe basin becomes fractal. The results of this paper are helpful for the application of MSMA microgripper in engineering fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Widespread deep seismicity in the Delaware Basin, Texas, is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection

Significance The Delaware Basin, western Texas, has experienced a surge in the number of earthquakes. We investigate basin-wide earthquake, hydrogeologic, industrial, and geodetic data spanning 1993–2020 to identify the reasons for the increase. We use these data and models to quantify the stress changes from wastewater injection and hydrocarbon extraction. We demonstrate that the basin-wide seismicity is dominated by the stresses caused by shallow injection that are transmitted vertically by deforming the underlying crust. We analyze both injection and production data to understand how subsurface properties control earthquake locations and timings. We suggest that injecting wastewater into porous formations will minimize seismic hazard. We establish a framework explaining why earthquakes sometimes occur and sometimes do not occur within human activity-impacted areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling regional variation in riverine fish biodiversity in the Arkansas-White-Red River basin

The patterns of biodiversity in freshwater systems are shaped by biogeography, environmental gradients, and human-induced factors. In this study, we developed empirical models to explain fish species richness in subbasins of the Arkansas White Red River basin as a function of discharge, elevation, climate, land cover, water quality, dams, and longitudinal position. We used information-theoretic criteria to compare generalized linear mixed models and identified well-supported models. Subbasin attributes that were retained as predictors included discharge, elevation, number of downstream dams, percent forest, percent shrubland, nitrate, total phosphorus, and sediment. The random component of our models, which assumed a negative binomial distribution, included spatial correlation within larger river basins and overdispersed residual variance. This study differs from previous biodiversity modeling efforts in several ways. First, obtaining likelihoods for negative binomial mixed models, and thereby avoiding reliance on quasi-likelihoods, has only recently become practical. We found the ranking of models based on these likelihood estimates to be more believable than that produced using quasi-likelihoods. Second, because we had access to a regional-scale watershed model for this river basin, we were able to include model-estimated water quality attributes as predictors. Thus, the resulting models have potential value as tools with which to evaluate the benefits of water quality improvements to fish.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Status of Redband Trout in the Upper Snake River Basin of Idaho

Abstract Redband Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri are likely the most abundant and most widely distributed native salmonid in the Columbia River basin, yet their current distribution and abundance across the landscape have not been well documented. We sampled 1,032 randomly distributed stream sites (usually 100 m in length) across more than 60,000 km of stream network to assess Redband Trout occupancy, abundance, and genetic purity in the upper Snake River basin of Idaho. Study locations were more often in dry desert subbasins (49% of sites) than in montane subbasins (20%), and 25% of the dry “stream sites” had no discernible stream channel whatsoever, indicating a lack of flowing water for perhaps millennia. Redband Trout were estimated to occupy 13,485 km of stream (22% of the total) and were captured more often (389 sites) than Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis (128 sites), Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus (37 sites), or Brown Trout Salmo trutta (16 sites). Redband Trout were also the most abundant species of trout, with an approximate abundance of 3,449,000 ± 402,000 (90% confidence interval) of all sizes, followed by Brook Trout (1,501,000 ± 330,000), Bull Trout (159,000 ± 118,000), and Brown Trout (43,000 ± 25,000). Approximately 848,000 ± 128,000 Redband Trout were adults. From 1913 (the earliest year of record) to 2001, roughly 43 million hatchery Rainbow Trout were stocked in streams in the study area, 17.5 million of which were of catchable size (i.e., ≥200 mm total length); since 2001, all catchable trout have been sterilized prior to stocking. Genetic results from 61 study sites suggest that hybridization with hatchery Rainbow Trout is more likely to occur in streams that were directly stocked with catchable trout from 1913 to 2001. Applying these results across the landscape, we estimated that Redband Trout likely remain pure in about 68% of the streams occupied in the upper Snake River basin. Received November 13, 2012; accepted January 9, 2014

Meyer, Kevin A.↗

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fractal boundary basins in spherically symmetric {phi}{sup 4} theory

Results are presented from numerical simulations of the flat-space nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation with an asymmetric double-well potential in spherical symmetry. Exit criteria are defined for the simulations that are used to help understand the boundaries of the basins of attraction for Gaussian 'bubble' initial data. The first exit criterion, based on the immediate collapse or expansion of bubble radius, is used to observe the departure of the scalar field from a static intermediate attractor solution. The boundary separating these two behaviors in parameter space is smooth and demonstrates a time-scaling law with an exponent that depends on the asymmetry of the potential. The second exit criterion differentiates between the creation of an expanding true-vacuum bubble and dispersion of the field leaving the false vacuum; the boundary separating these basins of attraction is shown to demonstrate fractal behavior. The basins are defined by the number of bounces that the field undergoes before inducing a phase transition. A third, hybrid exit criterion is used to determine the location of the boundary to arbitrary precision and to characterize the threshold behavior. The possible effects this behavior might have on cosmological phase transitions are briefly discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Sustainable Development Tool Using Meta‐Analysis and DPSIR Framework — Application to Savannah River Basin, U.S.

Abstract The Savannah River Basin (SRB), a highly stressed southeastern river in United States is a conservation priority for State, Federal government, and nongovernment organizations. A four‐stage sustainable development tool was developed in this study using meta‐analysis and the drivers–pressures–state–impacts–responses (DPSIR) framework. Through the synthesis of ~150 references in the SRB this study addressed three research questions: (1) What were the drivers, pressures, state, impacts, and responses (components of DRSIR framework) in SRB (2) Can these components be grouped together from various studies in SRB (3) Can causal chain/loops be developed, and will they be useful for policy and decision making? First in the Stage 1, the state of the SRB was represented (S component of DPSIR), in Stage 2, the drivers–pressures–impacts–responses (DPIR components of DPSIR) were represented, in the third stage (Stage 3) the common units characterizing each DPSIR component were identified. Finally, in Stage 4, the causal chains/loops were developed and organized into scientific research at a level appropriate for building better understanding about SRB and helping stakeholders and policy makers in managing basin sustainability challenges. Although the tool was applied to SRB, the methodology is applicable to other river basins and ecosystems.

Pagan, Janeesa↗

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Abstract Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least‐cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid‐network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest‐cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non‐point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non‐point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.

Chamberlin, Catherine↗

Hydrologic and water quality impacts of biofuel feedstock production in the Ohio River Basin

Abstract This study addresses the uncertainties related to potential changes in land use and management and associated impacts on hydrology and water quality resulting from increased production of biofuel from the conventional and cellulosic feedstock. The Soil Water Assessment Tool ( SWAT ) was used to assess the impacts on regional and field scale evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loadings in the Ohio River Basin. The model incorporates spatially and temporally detailed hydrologic, climate and agricultural practice data that are pertinent to simulate biofuel feedstock production, watershed hydrology and water quality. Three future biofuel production scenarios in the region were considered, including a feedstock projection from the DOE Billion‐Ton (BT2) Study, a change in corn rotations to continuous corn, and harvest of 50% corn stover. The impacts were evaluated on the basis of relative changes in hydrology and water quality from historical baseline and future business‐as‐usual conditions of the basin. The overall impact on water quality is an order of magnitude higher than the impact on hydrology. For all the three future scenarios, the sub‐basin results indicated an overall increase in annual evapotranspiration of up to 6%, a decrease in runoff up to 10% and minimal change in soil moisture. The sediment and phosphorous loading at both regional and field levels increased considerably (up to 40–90%) for all the biofuel feedstock scenario considered, while the nitrogen loading increased up to 45% in some regions under the BT2 Study scenario, decreased up to 10% when corn are grown continuously instead of in rotations, and changed minimally when 50% of the stover are harvested. Field level analyses revealed significant variability in hydrology and water quality impacts that can further be used to identify suitable locations for the feedstock productions without causing major impacts on water quantity and quality.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Climate impact on fluvial-lake system evolution, Eocene Green River Formation, Uinta Basin, Utah, USA

In light of a modern understanding of early Eocene greenhouse climate fluctuations and new highly seasonal fluvial system faces models, the role of climate in the evolution of one classically-cited continental, terminal lake system is re-examined. Detailed stratigraphic description and elemental abundance data from fifteen cores and seven outcrop regions of the Green River Formation were used to construct a ~150 km cross section across the Uinta Basin, Utah, USA. Lake Uinta in the Uinta Basin is divided into five lake phases: (1) post-Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, (2) peak Eocene hyperthermal, (3) waning hyperthermal, Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), (4) post-hyperthermal, and (5) post-EECO regimes, based primarily on climatically driven changes in fluvial style in combination with sedimentary indicators of lacustrine carbonate deposition, organic matter preservation, salinity, and lake depth. Basinwide siliciclastic dominated intervals were deposited by highly seasonal fluvial systems and record negative organic carbon isotope excursions associated with early Eocene abrupt, transient global warming (hyperthermal) events. Carbonate dominated or organic rich intervals record stable, less seasonal climate periods between hyperthermals, with lower siliciclastic sediment supply allowing the development of carbonate and organic matter preservation. The stratigraphic progression from alternating organic rich and lean zones to the overlying organic rich Mahogany and R8 zones represents the global transition out of the pulsed early Eocene hyperthermal climate regime to a time of sediment starvation and lake stratification, sequestering sedimentary organic carbon. This study provides a novel approach to terrestrial paleoclimate reconstruction that relies largely on unique sedimentary indicators and secondarily on isotopic proxy records within the context of a large basin-wide sedimentologic and stratigraphic data set, thus setting the stage for future detailed geochemical terrestrial paleoclimate proxy development.

Geology↗

Hydrologic windows into the crystalline basement and their controls on groundwater flow patterns across the Paradox Basin, western USA

Conceptual models of sedimentary basin groundwater flow systems typically assume that the crystalline basement acts as an impermeable boundary and can be neglected. In this study, we use hydrologic models constrained by isotopic and geochemical datasets to argue that the La Sal Mountains, Utah, USA, act as a hydrologic window into the Paradox Basin’s lower aquifer system and underlying crystalline basement. We conducted a sensitivity study in which we varied crystalline basement/laccolith permeability as well as fault zone connectivity along a cross-sectional transect from the La Sal Mountains to Lisbon Valley. When the crystalline basement/laccolith units are set at relatively permeable levels (10–14 m 2 ), simulated tracers that include total dissolved solids, oxygen isotopic composition of pore fluids (δ 18 O), and groundwater residence times are in closest agreement with field measurements. Model results indicate that pore fluids in the basal aquifer system underlying the Paradox Formation confining unit are a mixture of relatively young meteoric fluids and older Paradox Formation brines. The presence of faults did not significantly modify fluid exchange between the upper and lower aquifer systems. This was due, in part, to underpressuring within the Paradox Formation. Our study concludes that the Paradox Basin represents a regional recharge area for the Colorado Plateau, with groundwater discharge occurring along the Colorado River within the Grand Canyon some 375 km away to the southwest. This is only possible with a permeable crystalline basement. Our findings help explain the genesis of Mississippi Valley-type ore deposits of the US Midcontinent, where the presence of a permeable basement may be useful in addressing issues related to solute mass and energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multidecadal Drought Cycles in the Great Basin Recorded by the Great Salt Lake: Modulation from a Transition-Phase Teleconnection

This study investigates the meteorological conditions associated with multidecadal drought cycles as revealed by lake level fluctuation of the Great Salt Lake (GSL). The analysis combined instrumental, proxy, and simulation datasets, including the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2, the North American Drought Atlas, and a 2000-yr control simulation of the GFDL Coupled Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1). Statistical evidence from the spectral coherence analysis points to a phase shift amounting to 6–9 yr between the wet–dry cycles in the Great Basin and the warm–cool phases of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Diagnoses of the sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies attribute such a phase shift to a distinctive teleconnection wave train that develops during the transition points between the IPO’s warm and cool phases. This teleconnection wave train forms recurrent circulation anomalies centered over the southeastern Gulf of Alaska; this directs moisture flux across the Great Basin and subsequently drives wet–dry conditions over the Great Basin and the GSL watershed. The IPO life cycle therefore modulates local droughts–pluvials in a quarter-phase manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Stochastic Conceptual Modeling Approach for Examining the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflows in Mountain Basins

Abstract This study presents a modeling approach for examining how changes in climate affect streamflow in mesoscale mountain basins dominated by snowmelt runoff. A conceptual snowmelt-runoff model was developed that is forced by daily time series of temperature and precipitation. The model can be run using either observed climate data or artificial climate data generated from a GCM or a stochastic model. The model was applied to a case-study basin, the north fork of the Clearwater River in Idaho, using stochastically generated climate scenarios. Climate scenarios were generated using a contemporaneous auto-regressive integrated moving average (CARIMA) model for temperature and a precipitation model based on a two-state first-order Markov process. A baseline climate scenario was developed that represents recently observed temperature and precipitation conditions and then 15 additional climate scenarios that represent shifts in recent conditions. For each scenario, model application produced an ensemble of 50 streamflow traces each spanning 30 yr. Results show that an increase in temperature among scenarios leads to a decrease in streamflow and vice versa. Decreases in temperature shift the basin runoff to fully snowmelt dominated, whereas increases in temperature increase the frequency of midwinter runoff events. Increasing precipitation leads to increased runoff in cases where the temperature remains the same as the observed record, but not in cases where the temperature increases. The modeling approach presented here can be used by water managers to examine which types of climate change could require modifications in water planning and operations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗