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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals

Significance Climate observations comprise one sequence of natural internal variability and the response to external forcings. Large initial condition ensembles (LEs) performed with a single climate model provide many different sequences of internal variability and forced response. LEs allow analysts to quantify random uncertainty in the time required to detect forced “fingerprint” patterns. For tropospheric temperature, the consistency between fingerprint detection times in satellite data and in 2 different LEs depends primarily on the size of the simulated warming in response to greenhouse gas increases and the simulated cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols. Consistency is closest for a model with high sensitivity and large aerosol-driven cooling. Assessing whether this result is physically reasonable will require reducing currently large aerosol forcing uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the Pool Critical Assembly Benchmark with Explicitly-Modeled Geometry using MCNP6

Despite being one of the most widely used benchmarks for qualifying light water reactor (LWR) radiation transport methods and data, no benchmark calculation of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Pool Critical Assembly (PCA) pressure vessel wall benchmark facility (PVWBF) using MCNP6 with explicitly modeled core geometry exists. As such, this paper provides results for such an analysis. First, a criticality calculation is used to construct the fixed source term. Next, ADVANTG-generated variance reduction parameters are used within the final MCNP6 fixed source calculations. These calculations provide unadjusted dosimetry results using three sets of dosimetry reaction cross sections of varying ages (those packaged with MCNP6, from the IRDF-2002 multi-group library, and from the ACE-formatted IRDFF v1.05 library). These results are then compared to two different sets of measured reaction rates. The comparison agrees in an overall sense within 2% and on a specific reaction- and dosimetry location-basis within 5%. Except for the neptunium dosimetry, the individual foil raw calculation-to-experiment comparisons usually agree within 10% but is typically greater than unity. Finally, in the course of developing these calculations, geometry that has previously not been completely specified is provided herein for the convenience of future analysts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Development of Streamlined Nuclear Safety Analysis Tool for Spent Nuclear Fuel Applications

To understand the changing nuclear and mechanical characteristics of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) or used nuclear fuel (UNF) and the different storage, transportation, and disposal systems at various stages within the waste management system, different types of analyses are required. These analyses require the use of assorted tools and numerous types of data. Using the appropriate modeling and simulation (M&S) parameters and selecting from the diversity of analytic tools to conduct SNF analyses can be a tedious, error-prone, and time-consuming undertaking for analysts and reviewers alike. A new, integrated data and analysis system was designed to simplify and automate performance of accurate, efficient evaluations for characterizing the input to the overall U.S. nuclear waste management system—the UNF-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS). A relational database has been assembled to provide a standard means by which UNF-ST&DARDS can succinctly store and retrieve M&S parameters for specific SNF analysis. A library of various analysis model templates is used to communicate M&S parameters for the most appropriate M&S application. A process manager facilitates performance of actual as-loaded, assembly-specific, and cask-specific evaluations. Interactive visualization capabilities facilitate data analysis and results interpretation. To date, UNF-ST&DARDS has completed (1) explicit depletion and decay analysis of every fuel assembly (~245 000) discharged from commercial U.S. reactors through June 2013, with 13 cooling time steps (results include isotopic compositions for 142 isotopes, and radiation and thermal source terms); (2) SNF radiation dose rate evaluations at 1 m for all the fuel assemblies discharged through June 2013; and (3) criticality, shielding, thermal, and containment analyses of hundreds of loaded casks. In conclusion, UNF-ST&DARDS also provides various automated report generation capabilities with dynamic figure and table update capabilities based on changes to the Unified Database.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

KRUSTY Experiment: Reactivity Insertion Accident Analysis

The centerpiece of the Kilopower Project, i.e., the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) test, consists of the development and testing of a ground technology demonstration of a small fission power system based on a 1-kW(electric) space science power requirement. The KRUSTY test was authorized by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office. Authorization was obtained by adding an amendment to the existing regulatory documents for the National Criticality Experiments Research Center to cover the KRUSTY experiment. This amendment was reviewed and approved by the DOE. The most important safety question for the experiment was the addition of over 2 $ of excess reactivity to the reactor system. This amount of excess reactivity meant that the analyst could postulate accidents where the reactor went prompt critical, leading to physical shock or melting of the fuel. This paper analyzes these accidents using computer calculations and examines the controls used to mitigate them. The estimation of the impacts both on accident progression and consequences of reactivity insertion events was a significant part of obtaining approval for the KRUSTY experiment. The regulatory approval of KRUSTY was one of the first to be obtained for a completely new reactor concept in many decades.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA Methods to Evaluate the Impact on Accident Progression of Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident tolerant fuels (ATFs) are new nuclear fuels developed in response to the accident at the Fukushima power station in March 2011. The goal of ATFs is to withstand accident scenarios through better performance compared to currently employed fuels (e.g., small-scale hydrogen generation). This paper targets a method for evaluating and comparing ATF performance from a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) perspective by employing a newly developed combination of event trees and dynamic PRA methods. Compared to classical PRA methods based on event trees and fault trees, dynamic PRA can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impacts of physics dynamics and the timing/sequencing of events on the accident progression without the need to introduce overly conservative modeling assumptions and success criteria. In this paper, we analyze the impact on the accident progression of three different cladding configurations for two initiating events [a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) and a station blackout (SBO)] by employing dynamic PRA methods. The goal is to compare the safety performance of ATFs (FeCrAl and Cr-coated cladding) and the currently employed Zr-based clad fuel. We employ two different strategies. The first focuses on the identification of success criteria discrepancies between the accident sequences generated by the classical PRA model and the set of simulation runs generated by dynamic PRA using ATF. The second one, on the other hand, directly uses dynamic PRA to evaluate the impact of timing of events (e.g., recovery actions) on accident progression. In conclusion, by applying these methods to the LB-LOCA and SBO initiating events, we show how dynamic PRA methods can provide analysts with detailed and quantitative information on the safety impact of ATFs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deceptive Infusion of Data: A Novel Data Masking Paradigm for High-Valued Systems

This work addresses how analysts of a high-valued system (e.g., nuclear reactor, aircraft turbine designs) can extract findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable scientific data for public dissemination to artificial intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) researchers in a manner that cannot be reverse-engineered, potentially compromising sensitive or proprietary information. State-of-the-art methods address this problem through data masking techniques, which allow access to a subset of the information while obfuscating private and potentially identifying information (e.g., personally identifying medical data). These methods are unsuitable for industrial engineering processes, where AI/ML tools need explicit access to all the data available to draw the best inference about the system to help optimize its performance and identify its vulnerabilities, etc. Our novel deceptive infusion of data paradigm provides a solution to this conundrum by developing a mathematical approach capable of concealing the identity of the system while providing full access to all the features employed by AI/ML tools to ensure their optimal performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

MOOSE Reactor Module: An Open-Source Capability for Meshing Nuclear Reactor Geometries

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has developed numerous physics solvers utilizing the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework for multiphysics reactor analysis. These solvers require input finite element meshes representing the discretized spatial domain. Typically, reactor analysts turn to licensed tools for the creation of reactor geometry meshes. Recently, open-source functionality has been added to the MOOSE framework to mesh common reactor geometries and improve MOOSE-based nuclear reactor application user workflows. The new functionality is primarily contained in the new Reactor module of MOOSE and includes support for hexagonal pins, assemblies, and cores, extended Cartesian geometry support, options for modeling static and rotating control drums within a hexagonal assembly, core periphery triangulation, and automatic tagging of pin, assembly, plane, and depletion regions for easier post processing of physics results. A set of reactor geometry mesh builder objects further streamlines the construction of hexagonal and Cartesian cores and allows mapping of materials to regions during mesh generation. The meshes produced with the MOOSE Reactor module may be used directly within MOOSE-based applications or exported as Exodus II files for use in other finite element solvers. The tools have been demonstrated and verified using a variety of NEAMS physics solvers on a range of reactor applications, including a sodium-cooled fast reactor core analysis using Griffin, a fast reactor assembly thermal deformation analysis using MOOSE Tensor Mechanics, and a heat pipe–cooled microreactor coupled analysis using Griffin, Bison, and Sockeye. MOOSE’s Reactor module provides significant advantages compared to the use of external meshing tools when analyzing Cartesian and hexagonal reactor lattices using MOOSE-based applications: immediate accessibility (open-source) to the end user, low barrier to entry for new users, speed of mesh generation, volume preservation of meshed fuel pins, and simplification of analysis workflow when used in conjunction with MOOSE-based applications.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Standard and Advanced USL Methodologies for Nuclear Criticality Safety

The American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society national standards 8.1 and 8.24 provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations for establishing confidence in the results of the computerized models used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving freedom to the analysts to determine how the various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. Due to the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the resulting safety margins are often difficult to interpret. Also, these technical margins are augmented by additional administrative margins, which are required to ensure compliance with safety standards or regulations, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems, e.g., advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts, focused on economizing operation, there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of the uncertainties and their consolidation methods to reduce them in manners that can be scientifically defended. In response, the current studies compare the analyses behind four notable methodologies for upper subcriticality limit estimation that have been documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Specifically, the work offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the noted methodologies, their adequacies, and their limitations to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems that are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data. Here, to limit the scope, the current work focuses on the application of these methodologies to criticality safety experiments, where the goal is to calculate a bias, a bias uncertainty, and a tolerance limit for k eff in support of determining an upper subcriticality limit for nuclear criticality safety.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Iterative self-organizing SCEne-LEvel sampling (ISOSCELES) for large-scale building extraction

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) provide state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks, including those related to remote-sensing image analysis. Successfully training a CNN to generalize well to unseen data, however, requires training on samples that represent the full distribution of variation of both the target classes and their surrounding contexts. With remote sensing data, acquiring a sufficiently representative training set is a challenge due to both the inherent multi-modal variability of satellite or aerial imagery and the general high cost of labeling data. To address this challenge, we have developed ISOSCELES, an Iterative Self-Organizing SCEne LEvel Sampling method for hierarchical sampling of large image sets. Using affinity propagation, ISOSCELES automates the selection of highly representative training images. Compared to random sampling or using available reference data, the distribution of the training is principally data driven, reducing the chance of oversampling uninformative areas or undersampling informative ones. In comparison to manual sample selection by an analyst, ISOSCELES exploits descriptive features, spectral and/or textural, and eliminates human bias in sample selection. Using a hierarchical sampling approach, ISOSCELES can obtain a training set that reflects both between-scene variability, such as in viewing angle and time of day, and within-scene variability at the level of individual training samples. We verify the method by demonstrating its superiority to stratified random sampling in the challenging task of adapting a pre-trained model to a new image and spatial domain for country-scale building extraction. Using a pair of hand-labeled training sets comprising 1,987 sample image chips, a total of 496,000,000 individually labeled pixels, we show, across three distinct model architectures, an increase in accuracy, as measured by F1-score, of 2.2–4.2%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A framework for collaborative review of candidate events in high data rate streams: The V-FASTR experiment as a case study

“Fast radio transients” are defined here as bright millisecond pulses of radio-frequency energy. These short-duration pulses can be produced by known objects such as pulsars or potentially by more exotic objects such as evaporating black holes. The identification and verification of such an event would be of great scientific value. This is one major goal of the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) Fast Transient Experiment (V-FASTR), a software-based detection system installed at the VLBA. V-FASTR uses a “commensal” (piggy-back) approach, analyzing all array data continually during routine VLBA observations and identifying candidate fast transient events. Raw data can be stored from a buffer memory, which enables a comprehensive off-line analysis. This is invaluable for validating the astrophysical origin of any detection. Candidates discovered by the automatic system must be reviewed each day by analysts to identify any promising signals that warrant a more in-depth investigation. To support the timely analysis of fast transient detection candidates by V-FASTR scientists, we have developed a metadata-driven, collaborative candidate review framework. The framework consists of a software pipeline for metadata processing composed of both open source software components and project-specific code written expressly to extract and catalog metadata from the incoming V-FASTR data products, and a web-based data portal that facilitates browsing and inspection of the available metadata for candidate events extracted from the VLBA radio data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Roadmap on cosmic EUV and x-ray spectroscopy

Cosmic EUV/x-ray spectroscopists, including both solar and astrophysical analysts, have a wide range of high-resolution and high-sensitivity tools in use and a number of new facilities in development for launch. As this bandpass requires placing the spectrometer beyond the Earth’s atmosphere, each mission represents a major investment by a national space agency such as NASA, ESA, or JAXA, and more typically a collaboration between two or three. In general justifying new mission requires an improvement in capabilities of at least an order of magnitude, but the sensitivity of these existing missions are already taxing existing atomic data quantity and accuracy. This roadmap reviews the existing missions, showing how in a number of areas atomic data limits the science that can be performed. The missions that will be launched in the coming Decade will without doubt require both more and improved measurements of wavelengths and rates, along with theoretical calculations of collisional and radiative cross sections for a wide range of processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Known unknowns: indirect energy effects of information and communication technology

There has been sustained and growing interest in characterizing the net energy impact of information and communication technology (ICT), which results from indirect effects offsetting (or amplifying) the energy directly consumed by ICT equipment. These indirect effects may be either positive or negative, and there is considerable disagreement as to the direction of this sign as well as the effect magnitude. Literature in this area ranges from studies focused on a single service (such as e-commerce versus traditional retail) to macroeconomic studies attempting to characterize the overall impact of ICT. Methods. We review the literature on the indirect energy effect of ICT found via Google Scholar, our own research, and input from other researchers in the field. The various studies are linked to an effect taxonomy, which is synthesized from several different hierarchies present in the literature. References are further grouped according to ICT service (e.g., e-commerce, telework) and summarized by scope, method, and quantitative and qualitative findings. Review results. Uncertainty persists in understanding the net energy effects of ICT. Results of indirect energy effect studies are highly sensitive to scoping decisions and assumptions made by the analyst. Uncertainty increases as the impact scope broadens, due to complex and interconnected effects. However, there is general agreement that ICT has large energy savings potential, but that the realization of this potential is highly dependent on deployment details and user behavior. Discussion. While the overall net effect of ICT is likely to remain unknown, this review suggests several guidelines for improving research quality in this area, including increased data collection, enhancing traditional modeling studies with sensitivity analysis, greater care in scoping, less confidence in characterizing aggregate impacts, more effort on understanding user behavior, and more contextual integration across the different levels of the effect taxonomy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging to model, but there is limited guidance about best practices and research gaps for energy storage analysis. This paper reviews the literature and draws upon our collective experience to provide recommendations to analysts on approaches for representing energy storage in long-term electric sector models, navigating tradeoffs in model development, and identifying research gaps for existing tools and data. The review focuses on national-scale models with technological, temporal, and regional detail given their prevalence in planning and policy, though many insights are transferable to other modeling contexts. It also offers guidance to consumers of model outputs on proper use and interpretation based on model strengths and limitations. In particular, this review demonstrates the importance of capturing how the values of energy storage and other resources change as the system composition changes (e.g. with different levels of storage, renewables deployment, and emissions outcomes). These considerations require model detail like high spatiotemporal resolutions and endogenous investments that global integrated assessment models and price-taker frameworks do not typically resolve. Research gaps include linking tools of different resolutions, developing reduced-form representations of value streams, incorporating hybrid energy storage and renewable systems, and representing longer-duration energy storage technologies.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

An open-source high-content analysis workflow for CFTR function measurements using the forskolin-induced swelling assay

Abstract Motivation The forskolin-induced swelling (FIS) assay has become the preferential assay to predict the efficacy of approved and investigational CFTR-modulating drugs for individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF). Currently, no standardized quantification method of FIS data exists thereby hampering inter-laboratory reproducibility. Results We developed a complete open-source workflow for standardized high-content analysis of CFTR function measurements in intestinal organoids using raw microscopy images as input. The workflow includes tools for (i) file and metadata handling; (ii) image quantification and (iii) statistical analysis. Our workflow reproduced results generated by published proprietary analysis protocols and enables standardized CFTR function measurements in CF organoids. Availability and implementation All workflow components are open-source and freely available: the htmrenamer R package for file handling https://github.com/hmbotelho/htmrenamer; CellProfiler and ImageJ analysis scripts/pipelines https://github.com/hmbotelho/FIS_image_analysis; the Organoid Analyst application for statistical analysis https://github.com/hmbotelho/organoid_analyst; detailed usage instructions and a demonstration dataset https://github.com/hmbotelho/FIS_analysis. Distributed under GPL v3.0. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Hagemeijer, Marne C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

SeqMask: Behavior Extraction Over Cyber Threat Intelligence Via Multi-Instance Learning

Abstract Identification and extraction of Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTPs) for Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) restore the full picture of cyber attacks and guide the analysts to assess the system risk. Existing frameworks can hardly provide uniform and complete processing mechanisms for TTPs information extraction without adequate knowledge background. A multi-instance learning approach named SeqMask is proposed in this paper as a solution. SeqMask extracts behavior keywords from CTI evaluated by the semantic impact, and predicts TTPs labels by conditional probabilities. Still, the framework has two mechanisms to determine the validity of keywords. One using expert experience verification. The other verifies the distortion of the classification effect by blocking existing keywords. In the experiments, SeqMask reached 86.07% and 73.99% in F1 scores for TTPs classifications. For the top 20% of keywords, the expert approval rating is 92.20%, where the average repetition of keywords whose scores between 100% and 90% is 60.02%. Particularly, when the top 65% of the keywords were blocked, the F1 decreased to about 50%; when removing the top 50%, the F1 was under 31%. Further, we also validate the possibility of extracting TTPs from full-size CTI and malware whose F1 are improved by 2.16% and 0.81%.

Ge, Wenhan↗
DOE OSTI2022

CORAL: A framework for rigorous self-validated data modeling and integrative, reproducible data analysis

Abstract Background Many organizations face challenges in managing and analyzing data, especially when relevant datasets arise from multiple sources and methods. Analyzing heterogeneous datasets and additional derived data requires rigorous tracking of their interrelationships and provenance. This task has long been a Grand Challenge of data science and has more recently been formalized in the FAIR principles: that all data objects be Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable, both for machines and for people. Adherence to these principles is necessary for proper stewardship of information, for testing regulatory compliance, for measuring the efficiency of processes, and for facilitating reuse of data-analytical frameworks. Findings We present the Contextual Ontology-based Repository Analysis Library (CORAL), a platform that greatly facilitates adherence to all 4 of the FAIR principles, including the especially difficult challenge of making heterogeneous datasets Interoperable and Reusable across all parts of a large, long-lasting organization. To achieve this, CORAL's data model requires that data generators extensively document the context for all data, and our tools maintain that context throughout the entire analysis pipeline. CORAL also features a web interface for data generators to upload and explore data, as well as a Jupyter notebook interface for data analysts, both backed by a common API. Conclusions CORAL enables organizations to build FAIR data types on the fly as they are needed, avoiding the expense of bespoke data modeling. CORAL provides a uniquely powerful platform to enable integrative cross-dataset analyses, generating deeper insights than are possible using traditional analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network in Utah, US, using both ray tracing-derived and empirical-derived celerity-range and backazimuth models

SUMMARY More realistic models for infrasound signal propagation across a region can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of spatial and temporal source localization estimates. Motivated by incomplete infrasound event bulletins in the Western US, the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network of stations located between 84–458 km from the Utah Test and Training Range, Utah, USA, is assessed using a series of near-surface explosive events with complementary ground truth (GT) information. Signal arrival times and backazimuth estimates are determined with an automatic F-statistic based signal detector and manually refined by an analyst. This study represents the first application of three distinct celerity-range and backazimuth models to an extensive suite of realistic signal detections for event location purposes. A singular celerity and backazimuth deviation model was previously constructed using ray tracing analysis based on an extensive archive of historical atmospheric specifications and is applied within this study to test location capabilities. Similarly, a set of multivariate, season and location specific models for celerity and backazimuth are compared to an empirical model that depends on the observations across the infrasound network and the GT events, which accounts for atmospheric propagation variations from source to receiver. Discrepancies between observed and predicted signal celerities result in locations with poor accuracy. Application of the empirical model improves both spatial localization precision and accuracy; all but one location estimates retain the true GT location within the 90 per cent confidence bounds. Average mislocation of the events is 15.49 km and average 90 per cent error ellipse areas are 4141 km2. The empirical model additionally reduces origin time residuals; origin time residuals from the other location models are in excess of 160 s while residuals produced with the empirical model are within 30 s of the true origin time. We demonstrate that event location accuracy is driven by a combination of signal propagation model and the azimuthal gap of detecting stations. A direct relationship between mislocation, error ellipse area and increased station azimuthal gaps indicate that for sparse networks, detection backazimuths may drive location biases over traveltime estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗