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NASA NTRS2013

Antarctica, Greenland and Gulf of Alaska Land-ice Evolution from an Iterated GRACE Global Mascon Solution

We have determined the ice mass evolution of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets (AIS and GIS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA) glaciers from a new GRACE global solution of equal-area surface mass concentration parcels (mascons) in equivalent height of water. The mascons were estimated directly from the reduction of the inter-satellite K-band range-rate (KBRR) observations, taking into account the full noise covariance, and formally iterating the solution. The new solution increases signal recovery while reducing the GRACE KBRR observation residuals. The mascons were estimated with 10 day and 1 arc degree equal-area sampling, applying anisotropic constraints. An ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive filter was applied to the mascon time series to compute annual mass balances. The details and causes of the spatial and temporal variability of the land-ice regions studied are discussed. The estimated mass trend over the total GIS, AIS and GOA glaciers for the time period 1 December 2003 to 1 December 2010 is -380 plus or minus 31 Gt a(exp -1), equivalent to -1.05 plus or minus 0.09 mma(exp -1) sea-level rise. Over the same time period we estimate the mass acceleration to be -41 plus or minus 27 Gt a(exp -2), equivalent to a 0.11 plus or minus 0.08 mm a(exp -2) rate of change in sea level. The trends and accelerations are dependent on significant seasonal and annual balance anomalies.

MASCON↗

NASA NTRS2020

SISO Space Reference FOM - Tools and Testing

The Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM) version 1.0 is nearing completion. Earlier papers have described the use of the High Level Architecture (HLA) in Space simulation as well as technical aspects of the SpaceFOM. This paper takes a look at different SpaceFOM tools and how they were used during the development and testing of the standard.The first organizations to develop SpaceFOM-compliant federates for SpaceFOM development and testing were NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC), the University of Calabria (UNICAL), and Pitch Technologies.JSC is one of NASA's lead centers for human space flight. Much of the core distributed simulation technology development, specifically associated with the SpaceFOM, is done by the NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team. One of NASA's principal simulation development tools is the Trick Simulation Environment. NASA's NExSyS team has been modifying and using Trick and TrickHLA to help develop and test the SpaceFOM.The System Modeling And Simulation Hub Laboratory (SMASH-Lab) at UNICAL has developed the Simulation Exploration Experience (SEE) HLA Starter kit, that has been used by most SEE teams involved in the distributed simulation of a Moon base. It is particularly useful for the development of federates that are compatible with the SpaceFOM. The HLA Starter Kit is a Java based tool that provides a well-structured framework to simplify the formulation, generation, and execution of SpaceFOM-compliant federates.Pitch Technologies, a company specializing in distributed simulation, is utilizing a number of their existing HLA tools to support development and testing of the SpaceFOM. In addition to the existing tools, Pitch has developed a few SpaceFOM specific federates: Space Master for managing the initialization, execution and pacing of any SpaceFOM federation; EarthEnvironment, a simple Root Reference Publisher; and Space Monitor, a graphical tool for monitoring reference frames and physical entities.Early testing of the SpaceFOM was carried out in the SEE university outreach program, initiated in SISO. Students were given a subset of the FOM, that was later extended. Sample federates were developed and frameworks were developed or adapted to the early FOM versions.As drafts of the standard matured, testing was performed using federates from government, industry, and academia. By mixing federates developed by different teams the standard could be tested with respect to functional correctness, robustness and clarity.These frameworks and federates have been useful when testing and verifying the design of the standard. In addition to this, they have since formed a starting point for developing SpaceFOM-compliant federations in several projects, for example for NASA, ESA as well as SEE.

Möller, Björn↗

DOE OSTI2017

Post-Irradiation Examination for Conventional and Advanced Nuclear Fuel

During irradiation in a nuclear reactor, the fuel pellet experiences non-uniform fission rate and strong thermomechanical loads, which result in alterations and restructuring occurring non-homogeneously in the fuel volume. The irradiated fuel is characterized by a highly heterogeneous structure, with a correspondingly heterogeneous distribution of phases and properties. It is a big technical challenge for a hot cell facility to be able to cover effectively a broad variety of fuel types and compounds, characterized by different compositions, physico-chemical properties, geometries and configurations. The first challenge is to provide testing environments and procedures which do not alter or degrade the original irradiated fuel properties and are technically suitable for hot cell or shielded facility operation. For instance, non-oxide fuel compounds require protective atmosphere to avoid sample oxidation during storage, preparation and testing. Moreover, suitable adaptations of tools and measuring devices must be available to characterize fuel configurations which differ from the conventional cylindrical pellet-cladding geometries (e.g. spherical fuel elements for pebble bed HTR and TRISO coated fuel particles). Finally, adequate scientific methods of investigation must be available to measure properties and study the behaviour of highly heterogeneous irradiated fuel. In addition to basic techniques for non-destructive and destructive examination of nuclear fuel systems (e.g. covering fuel and cladding or fuel and coatings, or other configurations), 'in-depth' methods are applied to determine physical, thermomechanical and micro-analytical properties of specific phases/features present in irradiated fuel. This paper presents relevant trends and examples from fuel safety studies performed at JRC-Karlsruhe and in other laboratories which highlight the 'added value' obtainable by applying combined techniques, high resolution tools or 3D methods of analysis for the experimental 'multiscale' characterization of irradiated fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

A practical superconducting-microcalorimeter X-ray spectrometer for beamline and laboratory science

We describe a series of microcalorimeter X-ray spectrometers designed for a broad suite of measurement applications. The chief advantage of this type of spectrometer is that it can be orders of magnitude more efficient at collecting X-rays than more traditional high-resolution spectrometers that rely on wavelength-dispersive techniques. This advantage is most useful in applications that are traditionally photon-starved and/or involve radiation-sensitive samples. Each energy-dispersive spectrometer is built around an array of several hundred transition-edge sensors (TESs). TESs are superconducting thin films that are biased into their superconducting-to-normal-metal transitions. The spectrometers share a common readout architecture and many design elements, such as a compact, 65 mK detector package, 8-column time-division-multiplexed superconducting quantum-interference device readout, and a liquid-cryogen-free cryogenic system that is a two-stage adiabatic-demagnetization refrigerator backed by a pulse-tube cryocooler. We have adapted this flexible architecture to mate to a variety of sample chambers and measurement systems that encompass a range of observing geometries. There are two different types of TES pixels employed. The first, designed for X-ray energies below 10 keV, has a best demonstrated energy resolution of 2.1 eV (full-width-at-half-maximum or FWHM) at 5.9 keV. The second, designed for X-ray energies below 2 keV, has a best demonstrated resolution of 1.0 eV (FWHM) at 500 eV. Our team has now deployed seven of these X-ray spectrometers to a variety of light sources, accelerator facilities, and laboratory-scale experiments; these seven spectrometers have already performed measurements related to their applications. Another five of these spectrometers will come online in the near future. We have applied our TES spectrometers to the following measurement applications: synchrotron-based absorption and emission spectroscopy and energy-resolved scattering; accelerator-based spectroscopy of hadronic atoms and particle-induced-emission spectroscopy; laboratory-based time-resolved absorption and emission spectroscopy with a tabletop, broadband source; and laboratory-based metrology of X-ray-emission lines. Here, we discuss the design, construction, and operation of our TES spectrometers and show first-light measurements from the various systems. Finally, because X-ray-TES technology continues to mature, we discuss improvements to array size, energy resolution, and counting speed that we anticipate in our next generation of TES-X-ray spectrometers and beyond.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Calculating Probability Densities with Homotopy and Applications to Particle Filters

In this work, we explore a homotopy sampling procedure and its generalization, loosely based on importance sampling, known as annealed importance sampling. The procedure makes use of a known probability distribution to find, via homotopy, the unknown normalization of a target distribution, as well as samples of the target distribution. We propose a reformulation of the method that leads to a rejection sampling alternative. Estimates of the error as a function of homotopy stages and sample averages are derived for the algorithmic version of the method. These estimates are useful in making computational efficiency decisions on how the calculation should proceed, given a computer architecture. Consideration is given to how the procedure can be adapted to Bayesian stationary and nonstationary estimation problems. The connection between homotopy sampling and thermodynamic integration is made. Emphasis is placed on the non-stationary problems, and in particular, on a sequential estimation technique known as particle filtering. It is shown that a modification of the particle filter framework to include the homotopy process can improve the computational robustness of particle filters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Efficient Area-Based Algorithm for SAR Radiometric Terrain Correction and Map Projection

This article presents a projection algorithm based on the representation of radar samples as area elements, rather than point elements as traditionally done in previous works. Each area element in the geographic grid (geogrid) is associated with a set of samples in the radar grid that intersect completely or partially the area element according to the topography and the radar geometry. Accurate geocoding with adaptive multi-looking is achieved by successively assigning the weighted average of the radar samples to the corresponding geogrid elements. Analogously, the slant-range projection of geocoded data is improved by projecting the geogrid pixels onto the radar grid according to their projected area. When our slant-range projection approach is used within previously-published radiometric terrain correction (RTC) algorithms, the processing time is significantly reduced, performing 3.6 to 5.2 times faster over multi-looked data and up to 8.9 over single-look data. We demonstrate the strength of the area projection algorithm for RTC and geocoding using UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 data, and evaluate the results in the context of the upcoming NISAR mission.

Shiroma, Gustavo H↗

DOE OSTI2022

AMM: Adaptive Multilinear Meshes

Adaptive representations are increasingly indispensable for reducing the in-memory and on-disk footprints of large-scale data. Usual solutions are designed broadly along two themes: reducing data precision, e.g., through compression, or adapting data resolution, e.g., using spatial hierarchies. Additionally, recent research suggests that combining the two approaches, i.e., adapting both resolution and precision simultaneously, can offer significant gains over using them individually. However, there currently exist no practical solutions to creating and evaluating such representations at scale. In this work, we present a new resolution-precision-adaptive representation to support hybrid data reduction schemes and offer an interface to existing tools and algorithms. Through novelties in spatial hierarchy, our representation, Adaptive Multilinear Meshes (AMM), provides considerable reduction in the mesh size. AMM creates a piecewise multilinear representation of uniformly sampled scalar data and can selectively relax or enforce constraints on conformity, continuity, and coverage, delivering a flexible adaptive representation. AMM also supports representing the function using mixed-precision values to further the achievable gains in data reduction. We describe a practical approach to creating AMM incrementally using arbitrary orderings of data and demonstrate AMM on six types of resolution and precision datastreams. By interfacing with state-of-the-art rendering tools through VTK, we demonstrate the practical and computational advantages of our representation for visualization techniques. With an open-source release of our tool to create AMM, we make such evaluation of data reduction accessible to the community, which we hope will foster new opportunities and future data reduction schemes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2006

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Pohorille, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust framework and software implementation for fast speciation mapping

One of the greatest benefits of synchrotron radiation is the ability to perform chemical speciation analysis through X-ray absorption spectroscopies (XAS). XAS imaging of large sample areas can be performed with either full-field or raster-scanning modalities. A common practice to reduce acquisition time while decreasing dose and/or increasing spatial resolution is to compare X-ray fluorescence images collected at a few diagnostic energies. In this work, several authors have used different multivariate data processing strategies to establish speciation maps. Furthermore, the theoretical aspects and assumptions that are often made in the analysis of these datasets are focused on. A robust framework is developed to perform speciation mapping in large bulk samples at high spatial resolution by comparison with known references. Two fully operational software implementations are provided: a user-friendly implementation within the MicroAnalysis Toolkit software, and a dedicated script developed under the R environment. The procedure is exemplified through the study of a cross section of a typical fossil specimen. Additionally, the algorithm provides accurate speciation and concentration mapping while decreasing the data collection time by typically two or three orders of magnitude compared with the collection of whole spectra at each pixel. Whereas acquisition of spectral datacubes on large areas leads to very high irradiation times and doses, which can considerably lengthen experiments and generate significant alteration of radiation-sensitive materials, this sparse excitation energy procedure brings the total irradiation dose greatly below radiation damage thresholds identified in previous studies. This approach is particularly adapted to the chemical study of heterogeneous radiation-sensitive samples encountered in environmental, material, and life sciences.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cyclotron Resonant Scattering Feature Simulations I. Thermally Averaged Cyclotron Scattering Cross Sections, Mean Free Photon-Path Tables, and Electron Momentum Sampling

Electron cyclotron resonant scattering features (CRSFs) are observed as absorption-like lines in the spectra of X-ray pulsars. A significant fraction of the computing time for Monte Carlo simulations of these quantum mechanical features is spent on the calculation of the mean free path for each individual photon before scattering, since it involves a complex numerical integration over the scattering cross section and the (thermal) velocity distribution of the scattering electrons. We aim to numerically calculate interpolation tables which can be used in CRSF simulations to sample the mean free path of the scattering photon and the momentum of the scattering electron. The tables also contain all the information required for sampling the scattering electron's final spin. The tables were calculated using an adaptive Simpson integration scheme. The energy and angle grids were refined until a prescribed accuracy is reached. The tables are used by our simulation code to produce artificial CRSF spectra. The electron momenta sampled during these simulations were analyzed and justified using theoretically determined boundaries. We present a complete set of tables suited for mean free path calculations of Monte Carlo simulations of the cyclotron scattering process for conditions expected in typical X-ray pulsar accretion columns (0.01 B/B(sub crit) is less than or equal to 0.12, where B(sub crit) = 4.413 x 1013 G, and 3 keV kBT 15 keV). The sampling of the tables is chosen such that the results have an estimated relative error of at most 1/15 for all points in the grid. The tables are available online (see link in footnote, page 1).

Schwarm, F.-W.↗

DOE OSTI2013

NEAR-INFRARED ADAPTIVE OPTICS IMAGING OF INFRARED LUMINOUS GALAXIES: THE BRIGHTEST CLUSTER MAGNITUDE-STAR FORMATION RATE RELATION

We have established a relation between the brightest super star cluster (SSC) magnitude in a galaxy and the host star formation rate (SFR) for the first time in the near-infrared (NIR). The data come from a statistical sample of ∼40 luminous IR galaxies (LIRGs) and starbursts utilizing K-band adaptive optics imaging. While expanding the observed relation to longer wavelengths, less affected by extinction effects, it also pushes to higher SFRs. The relation we find, M{sub K} ∼ –2.6log SFR, is similar to that derived previously in the optical and at lower SFRs. It does not, however, fit the optical relation with a single optical to NIR color conversion, suggesting systematic extinction and/or age effects. While the relation is broadly consistent with a size-of-sample explanation, we argue physical reasons for the relation are likely as well. In particular, the scatter in the relation is smaller than expected from pure random sampling strongly suggesting physical constraints. We also derive a quantifiable relation tying together cluster-internal effects and host SFR properties to possibly explain the observed brightest SSC magnitude versus SFR dependency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been done in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the input space characterized by epistemic uncertainties. The consequent Dynamic Event Tree performs the exploration of the aleatory space. In the RAVEN code, a more general approach has been developed, not limiting the exploration of the epistemic space through a Monte Carlo method but using all the forward sampling strategies RAVEN currently employs. The user can combine a Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Stratified and Monte Carlo sampling in order to explore the epistemic space, without any limitation. From this pre-sampling, the Dynamic Event Tree sampler starts its aleatory space exploration. As reported by the authors, the Dynamic Event Tree is a good fit to develop a goal-oriented sampling strategy. The DET is used to drive a Limit Surface search. The methodology that has been developed by the authors last year, performs a Limit Surface search in the aleatory space only. This report documents how this approach has been extended in order to consider the epistemic space interacting with the Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of a robot-automated flat plate/reflection geometry x-ray diffraction setup for accelerated materials discovery and structural screening

Here, we report the design, construction, and automation of a flat plate sample loading, alignment, and data acquisition system for X-ray diffraction measurements in reflection geometry implemented at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource. The system is built onto a single platform, enabling facile transferability, and is compartmentalized into sample storage, sample transfer, and sample position/alignment segments. The core feature of this system is a six-axis robotic arm that offers a large range of highly reproducible and programable movements. The degrees of freedom of the robot arm enable adaptability in which movements can be modified to fit various beamline environments and sample configurations. Samples are housed on 3D printed sample mounts, which are arranged onto a 6 × 2 array of sample cassettes capable of holding 7 samples. Using sample mounts designed for solid oxide electrolysis button cells (SOECs), the maximum tray capacity is 84 samples, which can be aligned and run in ~ 24 hours with long exposure scans. The sample array is additionally capable of accommodating a range of sample sizes and geometries due to the rapid 3D printed fabrication. The components of the setup will be described in detail and performance will be demonstrated with a set of representative SOEC and XRD standard samples. Opportunities for future developments and integration with the automated setup are summarized.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Boundary-Aware Adversarial Learning Domain Adaption and Active Learning for Cross-Sensor Building Extraction

The use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for building extraction from remote sensing images has been widely studied and many public datasets have been made available for accelerating development of these CNN models. Yet adapting pretrained models at scale in real-world scenarios remains a challenging task. The main barrier is that certain new labels are still needed to compensate for domain shifting between the labeled data and new images that potentially cover new geographic locations or that are from a different sensor. In this article, we propose to add informatively labeled samples from a new image pool under the paradigm of active learning. To select the most useful samples based on model uncertainty, we first tackle the problem of uncalibrated uncertainty estimation due to distribution shifting by adapting feature extractors with boundary-based adversarial learning. Calibrated uncertainty is used as the query criterion in the active learning process, where the most uncertain samples are selected for annotation and included for model retraining. The proposed workflow was tested with three data pairs in which each workflow represents a scenario often encountered in real-world applications, including adapting pretrained models to new images collected with different sensors or to new geographic areas where appearances and types of buildings are very different. Compared to several baselines, including random sampling, temperature scaling (a well-known uncertainty calibration technique), different query strategies, and active domain adaptation methods, the proposed workflow shows that strategically querying a smaller set of samples for labeling achieves comparable or better building extraction performance. The proposed method reduces the number of labeled samples required to achieve sufficient model accuracy, thus significantly reducing hundreds of person-hours for labeled data creation. In addition, we include a few considerations when deploying this workflow in a GPU cluster that can be easily adapted to achieve operational building extraction model retraining.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Large Scale Unsupervised Domain Adaptation of Segmentation Networks with Adversarial Learning

Most current state-of-the-art methods for semantic segmentation on remote sensing imagery require large labeled data, which is scarcely available. Due to the distribution shifting phenomenon inherent in remote sensing imagery, the reuse of pre-trained models on new areas of interest rarely yield satisfactory results. In this paper, we approach this problem from an adversarial learning perspective toward unsupervised domain adaptation. The core concept is to infuse fully convolutional neural networks and adversarial networks for semantic segmentation assuming the structures in the scene and objects of interest are similar in two set of images. Models are trained on a source dataset where ground truth is available and adapted to new target dataset iteratively via a adversarial loss on unlabeled samples. We use two real large scale datasets to validate the framework: 1) cross city road extraction and 2) cross country building extraction. The preliminary results show the usefulness of considering adversarial learning for indirect re-use of the pre-trained models. Experimental validation suggests significant benefits over models without adaptation.

Deng, Xueqing↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fabrication and Modeling of Laser Additive Manufactured Materials with Multi-Beam Adaptive Beam Shaping

The objective of this research was to fabricate laser additive manufactured samples using the multi-beam fiber laser array system developed by Optonicus, and to test the ability of existing simulation tools to help understand the influence of various beam configurations on the heat transfer and solidification conditions that control microstructure development during processing. Optonicus produced Inconel 718 samples with two different beam configurations that exhibited dramatically different microstructure characteristics. A simplified analytical model was used in conjunction with microstructure selection theory to relate the differences in beam configuration and process conditions to the changes in microstructure. The analytical model was verified against standard quasi-static solutions and a numerical Computational Fluid Dynamics CFD model and the influence of fluid mechanics on the melt pool geometry was evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: ﬁrst, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission proﬁle events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to eﬃciently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗