SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “2018 data”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Crown polygons and extracted reflectance for field sampling sites

This dataset contains (1) crown polygons for each tree, meadow, and shrub site sampled in the 2025 Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (in geojson format, .geojson) and (2) extracted reflectance, uncertainty, and shade estimates for each crown polygon from the 2018 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and 2025 CHESS campaigns. (in CSV format, .csv). Additional metadata are provided in a data dictionary describing column names and definitions (dd.csv), and in a file-level metadata file (flmd.csv). Crown polygons were manually delineated for each site in the 2025 campaign using a combination of field-collected GPS data (doi:10.15485/3022418), RGB (red, green, blue) and false color reflectance mosaics (doi:10.15485/3013535), and LiDAR-derived (Light Detection and Ranging) canopy height (CHM) and digital surface (DSM) models (DOI and citation to be added upon publication). Where there was misalignment between the spectrometer- and LiDAR-derived data products, polygons prioritized alignment with the spectrometer-derived data products. Polygons were delineated conservatively to only select pixels representative of vegetation samples collected in the field. Crown polygons for 2018 are published at (doi:10.15485/1618130) and were developed using the same protocol. For each polygon, all pixels from all flightlines were extracted where the pixel centroid was contained within the polygon. For each pixel, we extracted the surface reflectance, uncertainty, and shade estimates. Details on the extracted datasets are available at (doi:10.15485/3013527, doi:10.15485/3013535). CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgment: This research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004) and was funded by EMIT Extended Mission Phase E Science.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on standard model effective field theory for a Higgs boson produced in association with W or Z bosons in the H → $\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}$ decay channel in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A standard model effective field theory (SMEFT) analysis with dimension-six operators probing nonresonant new physics effects is performed in the Higgs-strahlung process, where the Higgs boson is produced in association with a W or Z boson, in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The final states in which the W or Z boson decays leptonically and the Higgs boson decays to a pair of bottom quarks are considered. The analyzed data were collected by the CMS experiment between 2016 and 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . An approach designed to simultaneously optimize the sensitivity to Wilson coefficients of multiple SMEFT operators is employed. Likelihood scans as functions of the Wilson coefficients that carry SMEFT sensitivity in this final state are performed for different expansions in SMEFT. The results are consistent with the predictions of the standard model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for lepton-flavour violation in high-mass dilepton final states using 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at $$ \sqrt{s} $$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is performed for a heavy particle decaying into different-flavour, dilepton final states, using 139 fb − 1 of proton-proton collision data at $$ \sqrt{s} $$ s = 13 TeV collected in 2015–2018 by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Final states with electrons, muons and hadronically decaying tau leptons are considered ( eμ , eτ or μτ ). No significant excess over the Standard Model predictions is observed. Upper limits on the production cross-section are set as a function of the mass of a Z ′ boson, a supersymmetric τ -sneutrino, and a quantum black-hole. The observed 95% CL lower mass limits obtained on a typical benchmark model Z ′ boson are 5.0 TeV (e μ ), 4.0 TeV (e τ ), and 3.9 TeV ( μτ ), respectively.

Aad, G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for W' bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark at s=13TeV in the hadronic final state

A search is performed for W' bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark in the all-hadronic final state, in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The analyzed data were collected by the CMS experiment between 2016 and 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb -1 . Deep neural network algorithms are used to identify the jet initiated by the bottom quark and the jet containing the decay products of the top quark when the W' boson from the top quark decays hadronically. No excess above the estimated standard model background is observed. Upper limits on the production cross sections of W' bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark are set. Both left- and right-handed W' bosons with masses below 3.4 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level, and the most stringent limits to date on W bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark in the all-hadronic final state are obtained.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the polarizations of prompt and non-prompt J/ψ and ψ ( 2S ) mesons produced in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV

The polarizations of prompt and non-prompt Image 2 and ψ ( 2S ) mesons are measured in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV, using data samples collected by the CMS experiment in 2017 and 2018, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 103.3 fb − 1 . Based on the analysis of the dimuon decay angular distributions in the helicity frame, the polar anisotropy, λ ϑ , is measured as a function of the transverse momentum, p T , of the charmonium states, in the 25–120 and 20–100 GeV ranges for the Image 2 and ψ ( 2S ) , respectively. The non-prompt polarizations agree with predictions based on the hypothesis that, for p T ≳ 25 GeV , the non-prompt Image 2 and ψ ( 2S ) are predominantly produced in two-body B meson decays. The prompt results clearly exclude strong transverse polarizations, even for p T exceeding 30 times the Image 2 mass, where λ ϑ tends to an asymptotic value around 0.3. Taken together with previous measurements, by CMS and LHCb at s = 7 TeV, the prompt polarizations show a significant variation with p T , at low p T .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Horizon-scale variability of M87* from 2017–2021 EHT observations

Here, we report three epochs of polarized images of M87* at 230 GHz using data from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) taken in 2017, 2018, and 2021. The baseline coverage of the 2021 observations is significantly improved through the addition of two new EHT stations: the 12 m Kitt Peak Telescope and the Northern Extended Millimetre Array (NOEMA). All observations result in images dominated by a bright, asymmetric ring with a persistent diameter of 43.9 ± 0.6 µas, consistent with expectations for lensed synchrotron emission encircling the apparent shadow of a supermassive black hole. We find that the total intensity and linear polarization of M87* vary significantly across the three epochs. Specifically, the azimuthal brightness distribution of the total intensity images varies from year to year, as expected for a stochastic accretion flow. However, despite a gamma-ray flare erupting in M87 quasi-contemporaneously to the 2018 observations, the 2018 and 2021 images look remarkably similar. The resolved linear polarization fractions in 2018 and 2021 peak at ∼5%, compared to ∼15% in 2017. The spiral polarization pattern on the ring also varies from year to year, including a change in the electric vector position angle helicity in 2021 that could reflect changes in the magnetized accretion flow or an external Faraday screen. The improved 2021 coverage also provides the first EHT constraints on jet emission outside the ring, on scales of ≲ 1 mas. Overall, these observations provide strong proof of the reliability of the EHT images and probe the dynamic properties of the horizon-scale accretion flow surrounding M87*.

accretion, accretion disks↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for the doubly heavy baryons $ {{{{\varOmega}_{bc}^{0}}}} $ and $ {{{{\varXi}_{bc}^{0}}}} $ decaying to $ {{{{\varLambda}^+_c}}} {{{{\pi}^-}}} $ and $ {{{{\varXi}^+_c}}} {{{{\pi}^-}}} $ *

The first search for the doubly heavy $ {{{{\varOmega}_{bc}^{0}}}} $ baryon and a search for the $ {{{{\varXi}_{bc}^{0}}}} $ baryon are performed using $ pp $ collision data collected via the $ {\rm{LHCb}} $ experiment from 2016 to 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of $ 13 \;{\rm{TeV}} $, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.2 $ \;{\rm{f}}{{\rm{b}}^{ - 1}} $. The baryons are reconstructed via their decays to $ {{{{\varLambda}^+_c}}} {{{{\pi}^-}}} $ and $ {{{{\varXi}^+_c}}} {{{{\pi}^-}}} $. No significant excess is found for invariant masses between 6700 and 7300 $ \;{\rm{MeV}}/{c^2} $, in a rapidity range from 2.0 to 4.5 and a transverse momentum range from 2 to 20 $ \;{\rm{MeV}}/{c} $. Upper limits are set on the ratio of the $ {{{{\varOmega}_{bc}^{0}}}} $ and $ {{{{\varXi}_{bc}^{0}}}} $ production cross-section times the branching fraction to $ {{{{\varLambda}^+_c}}}{{{{\pi}^-}}} $ ( $ {{{{\varXi}^+_c}}}{{{{\pi}^-}}} $) relative to that of the $ {{{{\varLambda}^0_b}}} $ ( $ {{{{\varXi}_{b}^{0}}}} $) baryon, for different lifetime hypotheses, at 95% confidence level. The upper limits range from $ 0.5\times10^{-4} $ to $ 2.5\times10^{-4} $ for the $ {{{{{{{{\varOmega}_{bc}^{0}}}}{{\rightarrow }}{{{{\varLambda}^+_c}}}{{{{\pi}^-}}}}}}} $ ( $ {{{{{{{{\varXi}_{bc}^{0}}}}{{\rightarrow }}{{{{\varLambda}^+_c}}}{{{{\pi}^-}}}}}}} $) decay, and from $ 1.4\times10^{-3} $ to $ 6.9\times10^{-3} $ for the $ {{{{{{{{\varOmega}_{bc}^{0}}}}{{\rightarrow }}{{{{\varXi}^+_c}}}{{{{\pi}^-}}}}}}} $ ( $ {{{{{{{{\varXi}_{bc}^{0}}}}{{\rightarrow }}{{{{\varXi}^+_c}}}{{{{\pi}^-}}}}}}} $) decay, depending on the considered mass and lifetime of the $ {{{{\varOmega}_{bc}^{0}}}} $ ( $ {{{{\varXi}_{bc}^{0}}}} $) baryon.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electron and photon energy calibration with the ATLAS detector using LHC Run 2 data

This paper presents the electron and photon energy calibration obtained with the ATLAS detector using 140 fb -1 of LHC proton-proton collision data recorded at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV between 2015 and 2018. Methods for the measurement of electron and photon energies are outlined, along with the current knowledge of the passive material in front of the ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter. The energy calibration steps are discussed in detail, with emphasis on the improvements introduced in this paper. The absolute energy scale is set using a large sample of Z-boson decays into electron-positron pairs, and its residual dependence on the electron energy is used for the first time to further constrain systematic uncertainties. The achieved calibration uncertainties are typically 0.05% for electrons from resonant Z-boson decays, 0.4% at E T ~ 10 GeV, and 0.3% at E T ~ 1 TeV; for photons at E T ~ 60 GeV, they are 0.2% on average. This is more than twice as precise as the previous calibration. The new energy calibration is validated using J/ψ → ee and radiative Z-boson decays.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Muon reconstruction and identification efficiency in ATLAS using the full Run 2 $pp$ collision data set at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

This article documents the muon reconstruction and identification efficiency obtained by the ATLAS experiment for 139 fb$^{-1}$ of $pp$ collision data at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV collected between 2015 and 2018 during Run 2 of the LHC. The increased instantaneous luminosity delivered by the LHC over this period required a reoptimisation of the criteria for the identification of prompt muons. Improved and newly developed algorithms were deployed to preserve high muon identification efficiency with a low misidentification rate and good momentum resolution. The availability of large samples of $Z\to\mu\mu$ and $J/\psi\to\mu\mu$ decays, and the minimisation of systematic uncertainties, allows the efficiencies of criteria for muon identification, primary vertex association, and isolation to be measured with an accuracy at the per-mille level in the bulk of the phase space, and up to the percent level in complex kinematic configurations. Excellent performance is achieved over a range of transverse momenta from 3 GeV to several hundred GeV, and across the full muon detector acceptance of $|\eta|<2.7$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fiducial and differential cross-section measurements of electroweak $W\gamma jj$ production in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

The observation of the electroweak production of a W boson and a photon in association with two jets, using pp collision data at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre of mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV, is reported. The data were recorded by the ATLAS experiment from 2015 to 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 . This process is sensitive to the quartic gauge boson couplings via the vector boson scattering mechanism and provides a stringent test of the electroweak sector of the Standard Model. Events are selected if they contain one electron or muon, missing transverse momentum, at least one photon, and two jets. Multivariate techniques are used to distinguish the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process from irreducible background processes. The observed significance of the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process is well above six standard deviations, compared to an expected significance of 6.3 standard deviations. Fiducial and differential cross sections are measured in a fiducial phase space close to the detector acceptance, which are in reasonable agreement with leading order Standard Model predictions from MADGRAPH5+PYTHIA8 and SHERPA. The results are used to constrain new physics effects in the context of an effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

NDVI and Multispectral Images, UAS Flights, Council Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, June 2022

The dataset contains Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and multispectral images collected on June 18, 2022 using an UAS (Unmanned Aerial System) Yuneec H520, Mapir Survey 3, and Parrot Sequoia cameras. This data was created to accompany the following datasets:- NGEE Arctic CO2, CH4 and Energy Eddy-Covariance (EC) Flux Tower Auxiliary Measurements, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska (https://doi.org/10.5440/1526749)- Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence/eddy covariance measurements at NGEE Arctic Council site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022 (https://doi.org/10.15485/2466175)- NGEE Arctic Meteorological Data from Instrumented PCDC Stations, Council Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018 - 2023 (https://doi.org/10.5440/1529604)Survey 3 is RGN (Red, Greeen, Near Infra Red) camera with 87° Horizontal Field of View (HFOV) (19mm) f/2.8 Aperture, 550nm/660nm/850nm (Red+Green+NIR) filter transmission and produced geo referenced jpg and raw format images. Parrot Sequoia is a camera with 16 megapixel RGB (Red, Green, Blue) sensor and 1.2 megapixel monochrome sensors in discrete spectral bands: Green (550nm - 40Nm Bandwidth), Red (660nm - 40nm Bandwidth), Red Edge (735nm - 10nm Bandwidth) and Near Infrared (790nm - 40nm Bandwidth).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Savings Shapes: Public Dataset Release for Residential Round 1 [Slides]

The End-Use Load Profiles project created a public database of 900,000 individual building end-use load profiles. Load profiles were modeled to represent the U.S. building stock as it was in 2018, as nearly as possible based on the best available data. The End-Use Savings Shapes follow-on project adds measure impact profiles for energy efficiency and electrification packages to the public dataset. This presentation details the public dataset release on September 20, 2022.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Road to PROSPECT-II

The Precision Reactor Oscillation and SPECTrum (PROSPECT) experiment is based in a segmented liquid scintillator antineutrino detector situated approximately 7 meters from the highly enriched High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Its main goal is to investigate short-baseline antineutrino oscillations. The first phase of data collection, known as PROSPECT-I, was held from 2018 to 2019 and was used for several high-precision analyses, including multiple measurements of the $^{235}U$ antineutrino spectrum and searches for $eV$-scale sterile antineutrino oscillations. The collaboration is now preparing for the second phase, PROSPECT-II, which features an upgraded detector design. This advancement will enhance sensitivity and statistical power, allowing for a broader range of analyses beyond those achieved in PROSPECT-I. As we transition into this new phase, new questions have arisen concerning background simulation and its potential differences from those conducted during the initial phase of the experiment. Moreover, it is essential to ascertain, through simulations, the positive effects that an improved detector could have on the study of oscillations. This information is crucial for justifying the proposed enhancements, and I will cover all of this in the talk.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A measurement of the Higgs boson mass in the diphoton decay channel in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A measurement of the Higgs boson mass in the diphoton decay channel is performed using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data set recorded with the CMS detector between 2016 and 2018 is used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{-1}$. A refined detector calibration and new analysis techniques are employed to improve the precision of the results compared to earlier measurements. The Higgs boson mass is measured to be $m_\mathrm{H}$ = 125.13 $\pm$ 0.15 GeV = 125.13 $\pm$ 0.10 (stat) $\pm$ 0.12 (syst) GeV. In addition, a combination with the mass measurement at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV in the diphoton final state is performed resulting in $m_\mathrm{H}$ = 125.06 $\pm$ 0.14 GeV = 125.06 $\pm$ 0.09 (stat) $\pm$ 0.11 (syst) GeV.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electric Grid Visualization: Hourly Renewable Generation, Load, Unserved Load, and Locational Marginal Prices during a Heatwave

Visualization of hourly solar and wind generation, load, unserved load, and locational marginal energy prices in the western United States during a July 22-28 heatwave event in 2018, 2058, and 2098. In addition to hourly time series data of each of the parameters, choropleth maps showing the hourly value for each balancing authority are provided.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Road to PROSPECT-II

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Nucleon Structure via Deep Electroproduction Processes

Understanding the internal structure of the nucleon is a fundamental goal of modern physics, which aims at a comprehensive framework describing the internal dynamics of quarks and gluons. Among other structure functions, Generalized Parton Distributions (GPDs) offer a powerful framework for describing the nucleon dynamics by correlating the longitudinal momentum and the transverse position of its internal partons. Such a correlation provides a three-dimensional picture of the nucleon and enables access to fundamental properties, including the internal pressure distributions and the parton’s angular momentum contribution to the nucleon's total spin, thereby playing a central role in resolving the nucleon spin puzzle. At the Thomas Jefferson National Facility (JLab), polarized electron beam experiments allow for probing GPDs through the measurement of hard exclusive processes. Among the cleanest experimental channels, we find the electro-production of a real photon through the Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering (DVCS) mechanism. The first data-taking period of the CLAS12 program, taking place in 2018, allowed for unique DVCS Beam Spin Asymmetry (BSA) measurements in the phase space covered by a 10.6 GeV polarized electron beam impinging on an unpolarized liquid hydrogen target. Although detecting all final-state particles ensures exclusivity of the process, conservation laws indicate that it is not mandatory. I adopt an approach omitting the direct detection of the recoil proton, providing a simplified yet effective event selection strategy that boosts statistics and gives access to a larger phase space sensitive to the underlying GPD dynamics through BSA and cross section measurements. The Double DVCS (DDVCS) process promises a dedicated mapping of GPDs. Contributing to the electro-production of a lepton pair cross-section, the DDVCS reaction extends DVCS by allowing the final-state photon to be virtual, enriching the kinematic phase space and providing unique access to the internal correlations encoded by GPDs. A feasibility study is conducted to assess the potential of future DDVCS measurements at Jefferson Lab and the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). While Jefferson Lab will provide DDVCS measurements in the valence region through the SoLID$\mu$ and $\mu$CLAS12 experimental projects, in the long term, the EIC will provide complementary measurements in the sea region, both accessing unprecedented information about GPDs in a phase space region otherwise inaccessible. Taken together, these investigations demonstrate both the current capabilities and future opportunities for probing GPDs through exclusive processes. The experimental analysis of DVCS at CLAS12 provides precise measurements within an established framework, while the phenomenological study of DDVCS opens the door to richer and more comprehensive explorations with future detectors and facilities.

Alvarado, Juan [Université Paris-Saclay: Gif-sur-Y↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗