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Results for “variational Monte Carlo”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1994

The time-delay spectrum of GX 5-1 in its horizontal branch

Using a cross-spectral technique we investigate time delays between intensity variations of GX 5-1 in 10 X-ray spectral channels. The data were taken during a 1989 Ginga observation during which the source was in its horizontal-branch spectral state. We develope a new method to measure 'time-delay spectra' in fixed Fourier frequency ranges and use it to determine the energy and intensity dependence of time delays in the low-frequency noise (nu less than 2 Hz), the horizontal branch quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO), and the QPO second harmonic. These are the first time-delay spectra of a Z-source in its horizontal branch, and the first detection of time delays in the second harmonic. We consider two mechanisms for the production of the time lags: Comptonization and evolving shots. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of Compton scattering in a homogeneous, isotropic, central corona and show that it qualitatively explain the observed energy and time-delay spectra, but that it cannot explain the differences in the QPO first and second harmomnic time-delay spectra, nor the observed dependence of the QPO fractional rms variability upon energy. We consider implications of our results for millisecond pulsar searches in low-mass X-ray binaries.

Vaughan, B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Determination for Aeroheating in Uranus and Saturn Probe Entries by the Monte Carlo Method

The 2013-2022 Decaedal survey for planetary exploration has identified probe missions to Uranus and Saturn as high priorities. This work endeavors to examine the uncertainty for determining aeroheating in such entry environments. Representative entry trajectories are constructed using the TRAJ software. Flowfields at selected points on the trajectories are then computed using the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) Computational Fluid Dynamics Code. A Monte Carlo study is performed on the DPLR input parameters to determine the uncertainty in the predicted aeroheating, and correlation coefficients are examined to identify which input parameters show the most influence on the uncertainty. A review of the present best practices for input parameters (e.g. transport coefficient and vibrational relaxation time) is also conducted. It is found that the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for heating on Uranus entry is no more than 2.1%, assuming an equilibrium catalytic wall, with the uncertainty being determined primarily by diffusion and H(sub 2) recombination rate within the boundary layer. However, if the wall is assumed to be partially or non-catalytic, this uncertainty may increase to as large as 18%. The catalytic wall model can contribute over 3x change in heat flux and a 20% variation in film coefficient. Therefore, coupled material response/fluid dynamic models are recommended for this problem. It was also found that much of this variability is artificially suppressed when a constant Schmidt number approach is implemented. Because the boundary layer is reacting, it is necessary to employ self-consistent effective binary diffusion to obtain a correct thermal transport solution. For Saturn entries, the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for convective heating was less than 3.7%. The major uncertainty driver was dependent on shock temperature/velocity, changing from boundary layer thermal conductivity to diffusivity and then to shock layer ionization rate as velocity increases. While radiative heating for Uranus entry was negligible, the nominal solution for Saturn computed up to 20% radiative heating at the highest velocity examined. The radiative heating followed a non-normal distribution, with up to a 3x variation in magnitude. This uncertainty is driven by the H(sub 2) dissociation rate, as H(sub 2) that persists in the hot non-equilibrium zone contributes significantly to radiation.

Palmer, Grant↗

NASA NTRS2004

Remote Sensing of Icy Galilean Moon Surface and Atmospheric Composition Using Low Energy (1 eV-4 keV) Neutral Atom Imaging

We describe a low energy neutral atom imager suitable for composition measurements Europa and other icy Galilean moons in the Jovian magnetosphere. This instrument employs conversion surface technology and is sensitive to either neutrals converted to negative ions, neutrals converted to positive ions and the positive ions themselves depending on the power supply. On a mission such as the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO), two back-to-back sensors would be flown with separate power supplies fitted to the neutral atom and iodneutral atom sides. This will allow both remote imaging of 1 eV < E < 4 keV neutrals from icy moon surfaces and atmospheres, and in situ measurements of ions at similar energies in the moon ionospheres and Jovian magnetospheric plasma. The instrument provides composition measurements of the neutrals and ions that enter the spectrometer with a mass resolution dependent on the time-of-flight subsystem and capable of resolving molecules. The lower energy neutrals, up to tens of eV, arise from atoms and molecules sputtered off the moon surfaces and out of the moon atmospheres by impacts of more energetic (keV to MeV) ions from the magnetosphere. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) models are used to convert measured neutral abundances to compositional distributions of primary and trace species in the sputtered surfaces and atmospheres. The escaping neutrals can also be detected as ions after photo- or plasma-ionization and pickup. Higher energy, keV neutrals come from charge exchange of magnetospheric ions in the moon atmospheres and provide information on atmospheric structure. At the jovicentric orbits of the icy moons the presence of toroidal gas clouds, as detected at Europa's orbit, provide M e r opportunities to analyze both the composition of neutrals and ions originating from the moon surfaces, and the characteristics of magnetospheric ions interacting with neutral cloud material. Charge exchange of low energy ions near the moons, and directional distributions of the resultant neutrals, allow indirect global mapping of magnetic field structures around the moons. Temporal variation of the magnetic structures can be linked to induced magnetic fields associated with subsurface oceans.

Collier, M. R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fine-tuning catalytic selectivity by modulating catalyst-environment interactions: CO 2 hydrogenation over Pd-based catalysts

Capturing catalytic behaviors under operational conditions is pivotal to gaining a mechanistic understanding and promoting the design of robust catalysts. The challenge lies in the difficulty of monitoring real-time surface dynamics driven by catalyst-environment interactions. Here, in this work, we introduce a framework based on density functional calculations and kinetic modeling. This framework significantly improves the accuracy of theoretical models’ descriptions of experimental observations by quantifying environmental impacts on surface phases and active sites. CO 2 hydrogenation over Pd-based catalysts is taken as a showcase. The observed selectivity variations of Pd and Pd-M bimetallic catalysts strongly correlate with hydrogen coverage maintained under typical CO 2 hydrogenation conditions. By reducing the amount of surface hydrogen, the selectivity tuned effectively from formic acid toward CO and methanol. This study not only deepens the comprehension of dynamics of active sites under active chemical conditions but also introduces an alternative opportunity for catalytic tuning by modulating catalyst-environment interactions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking quantum trial wavefunctions for phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo

The phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (ph-AFQMC) method is a stochastic imaginary-time projection technique for computing ground-state properties of strongly correlated quantum systems, with accuracy that depends critically on the choice of trial wavefunction. Here, we investigate ph-AFQMC with trial states prepared using parameterized quantum circuits. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of quantum trial wavefunctions spanning unitary coupled-cluster, Hamiltonian-informed, Jastrow-inspired, and adaptively constructed ansatze. The benchmarking evaluates accuracy, expressibility, and scalability of these ansatze within the QC-AFQMC framework. We test these ansatze on linear hydrogen chains under bond stretching and find that several ansatz families produce chemically accurate ph-AFQMC energies across the dissociation curve. We have performed simulations using the CUDA-Q quantum development platform on the GPU partition of the Perlmutter supercomputer. When comparing ansatze at similar numbers of variational parameters, we find that different ansatz families yield comparable ph-AFQMC results despite exhibiting substantially different variational energies, optimization costs, and circuit depths. Our results indicate that the variational energy of an ansatz is not always a reliable indicator of its quality for ph-AFQMC and reveal instances of over-parameterization. In the strongly correlated regime, trial wavefunctions obtained from adaptive ansatze, exemplified here by ADAPT-VQE with the UCCSD operator pool, can outperform their fixed-ansatz counterparts (UCCSD) in terms of projected energies while using substantially more compact circuits, providing a flexible route to optimize quantum resources within the ph-AFQMC framework.

Rofougaran, Rod [LBNL, Berkeley; Columbia U.; PNL,↗

DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary results in using Deep Learning to emulate BLOB, a nuclear interaction model

Purpose: A reliable model to simulate nuclear interactions is fundamental for Ion-therapy. We already showed how BLOB (“Boltzmann-Langevin One Body”), a model developed to simulate heavy ion interactions up to few hundreds of MeV/u, could simulate also 12 C reactions in the same energy domain. However, its computation time is too long for any medical application. For this reason we present the possibility of emulating it with a Deep Learning algorithm. Methods: The BLOB final state is a Probability Density Function (PDF) of finding a nucleon in a position of the phase space. We discretised this PDF and trained a Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) to reproduce such a discrete PDF. As a proof of concept, we developed and trained a VAE to emulate BLOB in simulating the interactions of 12 C with 12 C at 62 MeV/u. To have more control on the generation, we forced the VAE latent space to be organised with respect to the impact parameter (b) training a classifier of b jointly with the VAE. Results: In this work, the distributions obtained from the VAE are similar to the input ones and the computation time needed to use the VAE as a generator is negligible. Conclusions: We show that it is possible to use a Deep Learning approach to emulate a model developed to simulate nuclear reactions in the energy range of interest for Ion-therapy. We foresee the implementation of the generation part in C++ and to interface it with the most used Monte Carlo toolkit: Geant4.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transport of Protostellar Cosmic Rays in Turbulent Dense Cores

We report recent studies have suggested that low-energy cosmic rays (CRs) may be accelerated inside molecular clouds by the shocks associated with star formation. We use a Monte Carlo transport code to model the propagation of CRs accelerated by protostellar accretion shocks through protostellar cores. We calculate the CR attenuation and energy losses and compute the resulting flux and ionization rate as a function of both radial distance from the protostar and angular position. We show that protostellar cores have nonuniform CR fluxes that produce a broad range of CR ionization rates, with the maximum value being up to two orders of magnitude higher than the radial average at a given distance. In particular, the CR flux is focused in the direction of the outflow cavity, creating a "flashlight" effect and allowing CRs to leak out of the core. The radially averaged ionization rates are less than the measured value for the Milky Way of ζ ≈ 10 -16 s -1 ; however, within r ≈ 0.03 pc from the protostar, the maximum ionization rates exceed this value. We show that variation in the protostellar parameters, particularly in the accretion rate, may produce ionization rates that are a couple of orders of magnitude higher or lower than our fiducial values. Finally, we use a statistical method to model unresolved subgrid magnetic turbulence in the core. We show that turbulence modifies the CR spectrum and increases the uniformity of the CR distribution but does not significantly affect the resulting ionization rates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Influence of Population Variation of Physiological Parameters in Computational Models of Space Physiology

The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and intracranial pressure had dominant impact on the peak strains in the ONH and retro-laminar optic nerve, respectively; optic nerve and lamina cribrosa stiffness were also important. This investigation illustrates the ability of LHSPRCC to identify the most influential physiological parameters, which must therefore be well-characterized to produce the most accurate numerical results.

biomechanics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Short-Range Order in Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes by Pair Distribution Function Analysis

Pair distribution function (PDF) analysis is a powerful technique for the characterization of short-range order (SRO) in disordered materials. Accurate interpretation of experimental PDF data is critically reliant on the development of structural models that can account for local variations in site occupancies and bond lengths. To this end, we outline an approach to model SRO using first-principles calculations based on the cluster-expansion formalism. These methods are validated on neutron scattering data from two disordered rocksalt oxyfluorides, Li 1.3 Mn 0.4 Ti 0.3 O 1.7 F 0.3 and Li 1.3 Mn 0.4 Nb 0.2 Ti 0.1 O 1.7 F 0.3 . For each composition, we demonstrate that an average structure without any SRO fails to reproduce several key features in the experimental PDF. To pinpoint the origin of the suspected SRO in these materials, configurational and displacive effects were separately investigated using two disparate models. Special quasi-random structures were relaxed using density functional theory to account for local changes in bond lengths while maintaining a near-random ionic configuration. This leads to slightly improved accuracy but still misrepresents asymmetry in the first few peaks of the PDF. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to model configurational SRO on a fixed lattice, which by itself is shown to have a minimal influence on the PDF. Instead, we find that it is the bond length relaxations within environments created by SRO which controls the details of the PDF, thereby highlighting the subtle but important coupling between configurational and displacive SRO in disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dissipative ground state preparation in ab initio electronic structure theory

Dissipative engineering is a powerful tool for quantum state preparation, and has drawn significant attention in quantum algorithms and quantum many-body physics in recent years. In this work, we introduce a novel approach using the Lindblad dynamics to efficiently prepare the ground state for general ab initio electronic structure problems on quantum computers, without variational parameters. These problems often involve Hamiltonians that lack geometric locality or sparsity structures, which we address by proposing two generic types of jump operators for the Lindblad dynamics. Type-I jump operators break the particle number symmetry and should be simulated in the Fock space. Type-II jump operators preserves the particle number symmetry and can be simulated more efficiently in the full configuration interaction space. For both types of jump operators, we prove that in a simplified Hartree-Fock framework, the spectral gap of our Lindbladian is lower bounded by a universal constant. For physical observables such as energy and reduced density matrices, the convergence rate of our Lindblad dynamics with Type-I jump operators remains universal, while the convergence rate with Type-II jump operators only depends on coarse grained information such as the number of orbitals and the number of electrons. To validate our approach, we employ a Monte Carlo trajectory-based algorithm for simulating the Lindblad dynamics for full ab initio Hamiltonians, demonstrating its effectiveness on molecular systems amenable to exact wavefunction treatment.

Quantum chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2016

Integrating Chlorophyll fapar and Nadir Photochemical Reflectance Index from EO-1/Hyperion to Predict Cornfield Daily Gross Primary Production

The concept of light use efficiency (Epsilon) and the concept of fraction of photosynthetically active ration (PAR) absorbed for vegetation photosynthesis (PSN), i.e., fAPAR (sub PSN), have been widely utilized to estimate vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). It has been demonstrated that the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) is empirically related to ε. An experimental US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cornfield in Maryland was selected as our study field. We explored the potential of integrating fAPAR(sub chl) (defined as the fraction of PAR absorbed by chlorophyll) and nadir PRI (PRI(sub nadir)) to predict cornfield daily GPP. We acquired nadir or near-nadir EO-1/Hyperion satellite images that covered the cornfield and took nadir in-situ field spectral measurements. Those data were used to derive the PRI(sub nadir) and fAPAR (sub chl). The fAPAR (sub chl) is retrieved with the advanced radiative transfer model PROSAIL2 and the Metropolis approach, a type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation procedure. We define chlorophyll light use efficiency Epsilon (sub chl) as the ratio of vegetation GPP as measured by eddy covariance techniques to PAR absorbed by chlorophyll (Epsilon(sub chl) = GPP/APAR (sub chl). Daily Epsilon (sub chl) retrieved with the EO-1 Hyperion images was regressed with a linear equation of PRI (sub nadir) Epsilon (sub chl) = Alpha × PRI (sub nadir) + Beta). The satellite Epsilon(sub chl- PRI (sub nadir) linear relationship for the cornfield was implemented to develop an integrated daily GPP model [GPP = (Alpha × PRI(sub nadir) + Beta) × fAPAR (sub chl) × PAR], which was evaluated with fAPAR (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir) retrieved from field measurements. Daily GPP estimated with this fAPAR (sub chl-) PRI (nadir) integration model was strongly correlated with the observed tower in-situ daily GPP (R(sup 2) = 0.93); with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.71 g C mol−(sup -1) PPFD and coefficient of variation (CV) of 16.57%. Both seasonal Epsilon (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir) were strongly correlated with fAPAR (sub chl ) retrieved from field measurements, which indicates that chlorophyll content strongly affects seasonal epsilon (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir). We demonstrate the potential capacity to monitor GPP with space-based visible through shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers such as NASA's soon to be decommissioned EO- 1/Hyperion and the future Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI).

HyspIRI↗

NASA NTRS2005

DSMC Simulations of Ballute Aerothermodynamics Under Hypersonic Rarefied Conditions

This paper presents computational results obtained with the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for towed ballute applications. A ballute is an inflatable drag device that can be used to create a large amount of drag at high altitudes. Consequently, ballutes provide a potential technology for achieving aerocapture when the primary spacecraft velocity reduction (ΔV) is achieved at much higher altitudes than with the conventional rigid aeroshell. Since the ΔV is achieved at relatively high altitudes, rarefaction can be significant and is the motivation for the current study with the DSMC method. Computed surface and flow-field results are presented for a toroidal ballute, isolated tethers when exposed to free-stream flow conditions, and the flow interactions resulting from a toroidal ballute when towed by a six meter diameter Mars Pathfinder shaped (without tethers) spacecraft. All results presented are for Earth entry at velocities of 14 to 7 km/s (primary focus is at 8.55 km/s, same as some previous Titan aerocapture studies) and altitudes of 200 to 100 km. Variations of drag and heating coefficients as a function of rarefaction are presented. A description of the flow structure is provided and also an explanation of how it is affected by shock interactions produced solely by the ballute and those resulting from the two body combination of towed ballute and spacecraft is also given.

James N Moss↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)

A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian parameter inference framework to generate a second posterior constrained ensemble coined a “calibrated physics ensemble,” or CPE. The CPE members are characterized by diverse parameter combinations and are, by definition, close to top-of-atmosphere radiative balance, and must broadly agree with numerous hydrologic, energy cycle and radiative forcing metrics simultaneously. Global observations of numerous cloud, environment, and radiation properties (provided by global satellite products) are crucial for CPE generation. The inference framework explicitly accounts for discrepancies (or biases) in satellite products during CPE generation. We demonstrate that product discrepancies strongly impact calibration of important model parameter settings (e.g., convective plume entrainment rates; fall speed for cloud ice). Structural improvements new to E3 are retained across CPE members (e.g., stratocumulus simulation). Notably, the framework improved the simulation of shallow cumulus and Amazon rainfall while not degrading radiation fields, an upgrade that neither default parameters nor Latin Hypercube parameter searching achieved. Analyses of the initial PPE suggested several parameters were unimportant for output variation. However, many “unimportant” parameters were needed for CPE generation, a result that brings to the forefront how parameter importance should be determined in PPEs. From the CPE, two diverse 45-dimensional parameter configurations are retained to generate radiatively-balanced, auto-tuned atmospheres that were used in two E3 submissions to CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗

DOE OSTI2020

Examination of synthetic gas puff imaging diagnostic data from a gyrokinetic turbulence code

A synthetic gas puff imaging (GPI) diagnostic has been developed for the purpose of validating the three-dimensional gyrokinetic turbulence code XGC. The synthetic diagnostic is described and applied to XGC simulations of two Alcator C-Mod discharges. The turbulence characteristics deduced from the resulting simulated GPI frames, using analysis techniques similar to those applied to experimental data, are compared with locally derived characteristics extracted directly from the XGC output. The comparison of the two is shown to be potentially impacted by misalignment between the GPI view and the magnetic field, the dependence of the light emission on the electron density and temperature, and spatial and temporal variations in the neutral gas cloud induced by the turbulent plasma fluctuations. We conclude that quantitative and, in some cases even qualitative, validation of turbulence simulations need to account for these effects. While we cannot directly compare our results with experimental data due to the absence of high quality GPI data from the shots and times simulated by XGC, we do relate the overall characteristics obtained from the synthetic GPI analysis to published Alcator C-Mod GPI data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molecular Structure and Thermodynamics of CO 2 and Water Adsorption on Mica

The adsorption of CO 2 and water on clay surfaces plays a key role in applications, such as gas storage in saline aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, but is not yet fully understood. Here, we study the adsorption of CO 2 and water vapor using Grand Canonical Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations. At a bulk pressure of 100 bar, pure CO 2 adsorbs strongly on mica and forms extensive layers next to it. CO 2 adsorption is lowered substantially if introducing water vapor above mica and is largely eliminated when the relative humidity (RH) approaches about 60%. When pure water vapor is introduced above a mica surface, a subnanometer thick liquid water film develops on it to form apparent liquid–solid and liquid–vapor interfaces simultaneously. Using the identification of truly interfacial molecules (ITIM) analysis, we delineate how individual water layers develop in this film as RH increases. We highlight that the water film is spatially heterogeneous and the true liquid–vapor interface emerges only at an RH of 60–80%. Introducing 100 bar of CO 2 into the water vapor above the mica surface modulates water adsorption nonlinearly: at RH = 0.01%, the water adsorption is reduced by ∼30%; as RH increases, the reduction is weakened, and eventually, enhancement of water adsorption by about 7% occurs at RH = 90%. These variations are attributed to the interplay of film thinning by high-pressure CO 2 , competition of mica surface sites by CO 2 molecules, and energetic and entropic stabilization of interfacial water by CO 2 molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗