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At least 505 records · Page 28

SU-C-BRB-06: Dosimetric Impact of Breast Contour Reconstruction Errors in GammaPod Stereotactic Radiotherapy

Purpose: The first GammaPod™ unit, a dedicated prone stereotactic treatment device for early stage breast cancer, has been installed and commissioned at University of Maryland School of Medicine. The objective of this study was to investigate potential dosimetric impact of inaccurate breast contour. Methods: In GammaPod treatments, patient’s beast is immobilized by a breast cup device (BCID) throughout the entire same-day imaging and treatment procedure. 28 different BICD sizes are available to accommodate patients with varying breast sizes. A mild suction helps breast tissue to conform to the shape of the cup with selected size. In treatment planning, dose calculation utilizes previously calculated dose distributions for available cup geometry rather than the breast shape from CT image. Patient CT images with breast cups indicate minor geometric discrepancy between the matched shape of the cup and the breast contour, i.e., the contour size is larger or smaller. In order to investigate the dosimetric impact of these discrepancies, we simulated such discrepancies and reassessed the dose to target as well as skin. Results: In vicinity of skin, hot/cold spots were found when matched cup size was smaller/larger than patient’s breast after comparing the corrected dose profiles from Monte Carlo simulation with the planned dose from TPS. The overdosing/underdosing of target could yield point dose differences as large as 5% due to these setup errors (D95 changes within 2.5%). Maximal skin dose was overestimated/underestimated up to 25%/45% when matched cup size was larger/smaller than real breast contour. Conclusion: The dosimetric evaluation suggests substantial underdosing/overdosing with inaccurate cup geometry during planning, which is acceptable for current clinical trial. Further studies are needed to evaluate such impact to treating small volume close to skin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-776: Use of Quality Metrics for a New Hypo-Fractionated Pre-Surgical Mesothelioma Protocol

Purpose: The “SMART” (Surgery for Mesothelioma After Radiation Therapy) approach involves hypo-fractionated radiotherapy of the lung pleura to 25Gy over 5 days followed by surgical resection within 7. Early clinical results suggest that this approach is very promising, but also logistically challenging due to the multidisciplinary involvement. Due to the compressed schedule, high dose, and shortened planning time, the delivery of the planned doses were monitored for safety with quality metric software. Methods: Hypo-fractionated IMRT treatment plans were developed for all patients and exported to Quality Reports™ software. Plan quality metrics or PQMs™ were created to calculate an objective scoring function for each plan. This allows for an objective assessment of the quality of the plan and a benchmark for plan improvement for subsequent patients. The priorities of various components were incorporated based on similar hypo-fractionated protocols such as lung SBRT treatments. Results: Five patients have been treated at our institution using this approach. The plans were developed, QA performed, and ready within 5 days of simulation. Plan Quality metrics utilized in scoring included doses to OAR and target coverage. All patients tolerated treatment well and proceeded to surgery as scheduled. Reported toxicity included grade 1 nausea (n=1), grade 1 esophagitis (n=1), grade 2 fatigue (n=3). One patient had recurrent fluid accumulation following surgery. No patients experienced any pulmonary toxicity prior to surgery. Conclusion: An accelerated course of pre-operative high dose radiation for mesothelioma is an innovative and promising new protocol. Without historical data, one must proceed cautiously and monitor the data carefully. The development of quality metrics and scoring functions for these treatments allows us to benchmark our plans and monitor improvement. If subsequent toxicities occur, these will be easy to investigate and incorporate into the metrics. This will improve the safe delivery of large doses for these patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The SERENDIP 2 SETI project: Current status

Over the past 30 years, interest in extraterrestrial intelligence has progressed from philosophical discussion to rigorous scientific endeavors attempting to make contact. Since it is impossible to assess the probability of success and the amount of telescope time needed for detection, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Projects are plagued with the problem of attaining the large amounts of time needed on the world's precious few large radio telescopes. To circumvent this problem, the Search for Extraterrestrial Radio Emissions from Nearby Developed Intelligent Populations (SERENDIP) instrument operates autonomously in a piggyback mode utilizing whatever observing plan is chosen by the primary observer. In this way, large quantities of high-quality data can be collected in a cost-effective and unobtrusive manner. During normal operations, SERENDIP logs statistically significant events for further offline analysis. Due to the large number of terrestrial and near-space transmitters on earth, a major element of the SERENDIP project involves identifying and rejecting spurious signals from these sources. Another major element of the SERENDIP Project (as well as most other SETI efforts) is detecting extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) signals. Events selected as candidate ETI signals are studied further in a targeted search program which utilizes between 24 to 48 hours of dedicated telescope time each year.

Bowyer, C. S.↗

Detailed Laboratory Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Controlled Heat Pump Water Heaters

The demand profile management of electric end uses is vital research for utilities and policymakers planning greenhouse gas emission reductions. In this study, detailed laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of 4 grid-connected HPWHs and one electric resistance water heaters (ERWH). The testing applied different CTA-2045 shed and critical peak command designs under three water draw profiles. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in Florida. One of the four HPWHs was a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load-up above tank setpoint. A three-hour morning (6 – 9 AM) and four-hour evening curtailment (4 – 8 PM) were defined as the shed or critical peak periods reflecting high-value control periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under varied load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed and critical peak commands. Data were collected from December 2020 – February 2022 in the laboratory and compared with field experiments in Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Grid-connected HPWHs were found to reduce peak demand by up to 0.47 kW compared to uncontrolled HPWH units, depending on time of day, control scheme, draw profile, and temperature cluster. The load up strategy demonstrated the ability of all units to utilize heat pump mode for extended periods ahead of peak events. Demand reductions for the HPWHs were much larger when compared with the ERWH— up to 1.64 kW with large hot water draws in winter.

Fenaughty, Karen↗

The CCSDS Next Generation Space Data Link Protocol (NGSLP)

The CCSDS space link protocols i.e., Telemetry (TM), Telecommand (TC), Advanced Orbiting Systems (AOS) were developed in the early growth period of the space program. They were designed to meet the needs of the early missions, be compatible with the available technology and focused on the specific link environments. Digital technology was in its infancy and spacecraft power and mass issues enforced severe constraints on flight implementations. Therefore the Telecommand protocol was designed around a simple Bose, Hocquenghem, Chaudhuri (BCH) code that provided little coding gain and limited error detection but was relatively simple to decode on board. The infusion of the concatenated Convolutional and Reed-Solomon codes5 for telemetry was a major milestone and transformed telemetry applications by providing them the ability to more efficiently utilize the telemetry link and its ability to deliver user data. The ability to significantly lower the error rates on the telemetry links enabled the use of packet telemetry and data compression. The infusion of the high performance codes for telemetry was enabled by the advent of digital processing, but it was limited to earth based systems supporting telemetry. The latest CCSDS space link protocol, Proximity-1 was developed in early 2000 to meet the needs of short-range, bi-directional, fixed or mobile radio links characterized by short time delays, moderate but not weak signals, and short independent sessions. Proximity-1 has been successfully deployed on both NASA and ESA missions at Mars and is planned to be utilized by all Mars missions in development. A new age has arisen, one that now provides the means to perform advanced digital processing in spacecraft systems enabling the use of improved transponders, digital correlators, and high performance forward error correcting codes for all communications links. Flight transponders utilizing digital technology have emerged and can efficiently provide the means to make the next leap in performance for space link communications. Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) provide the capability to incorporate high performance forward error correcting codes implemented within software transponders providing improved performance in data transfer, ranging, link security, and time correlation. Given these synergistic technological breakthroughs, the time has come to take advantage of them in applying them to both on going (e.g., command, telemetry) and emerging (e.g., space link security, optical communication) space link applications. However one of the constraining factors within the Data Link Layer in realizing these performance gains is the lack of a generic transfer frame format and common supporting services amongst the existing CCSDS link layer protocols. Currently each of the four CCSDS link layer protocols (TM, TC, AOS, and Proximity-1) have unique formats and services which prohibits their reuse across the totality of all space link applications of CCSDS member space agencies. For example, Mars missions. These missions implement their proximity data link layer using the Proximity-1 frame format and the services it supports but is still required to support the direct from Earth (TC) protocols and the Direct To Earth (AOS/TM) protocols. The prime purpose of this paper, is to describe a new general purpose CCSDS Data Link layer protocol, the NGSLP that will provide the required services along with a common transfer frame format for all the CCSDS space links (ground to/from space and space to space links) targeted for emerging missions after a CCSDS agency-wide coordinated date. This paper will also describe related options that can be included for the Coding and Synchronization sub-layer of the Data Link layer to extend the capacities of the link and additionally provide an independence of the transfer frame sub-layer from the coding sublayer. This feature will provide missions the option of running either the currently performed synchronous coding and transfer frame data link or an asynchronous coding/frame data link, in which the transfer frame length is independent of the block size of the code. The benefits from the elimination of this constraint (frame synchronized to the code block) will simplify the interface between the transponder and the data handling equipment and reduce implementation costs and complexities. The benefits include: inclusion of encoders/decoders into transmitters and receivers without regard to data link protocols, providing the ability to insert latency sensitive messages into the link to support launch, landing/docking, telerobotics. and Variable Coded Modulation (VCM). In addition the ability to transfer different sized frames can provide a backup for delivering stored anomaly engineering data simultaneously with real time data, or relaying of frames from various sources onto a trunk line for delivery to Earth.

Kazz, Greg J.↗

SU-F-J-105: Towards a Novel Treatment Planning Pipeline Delivering Pareto- Optimal Plans While Enabling Inter- and Intrafraction Plan Adaptation

Purpose: To develop a new IMRT treatment planning methodology suitable for the new generation of MR-linear accelerator machines. The pipeline is able to deliver Pareto-optimal plans and can be utilized for conventional treatments as well as for inter- and intrafraction plan adaptation based on real-time MR-data. Methods: A Pareto-optimal plan is generated using the automated multicriterial optimization approach Erasmus-iCycle. The resulting dose distribution is used as input to the second part of the pipeline, an iterative process which generates deliverable segments that target the latest anatomical state and gradually converges to the prescribed dose. This process continues until a certain percentage of the dose has been delivered. Under a conventional treatment, a Segment Weight Optimization (SWO) is then performed to ensure convergence to the prescribed dose. In the case of inter- and intrafraction adaptation, post-processing steps like SWO cannot be employed due to the changing anatomy. This is instead addressed by transferring the missing/excess dose to the input of the subsequent fraction. In this work, the resulting plans were delivered on a Delta4 phantom as a final Quality Assurance test. Results: A conventional static SWO IMRT plan was generated for two prostate cases. The sequencer faithfully reproduced the input dose for all volumes of interest. For the two cases the mean relative dose difference of the PTV between the ideal input and sequenced dose was 0.1% and −0.02% respectively. Both plans were delivered on a Delta4 phantom and passed the clinical Quality Assurance procedures by achieving 100% pass rate at a 3%/3mm gamma analysis. Conclusion: We have developed a new sequencing methodology capable of online plan adaptation. In this work, we extended the pipeline to support Pareto-optimal input and clinically validated that it can accurately achieve these ideal distributions, while its flexible design enables inter- and intrafraction plan adaptation. This research is financially supported by Elekta AB, Stockholm, Sweden.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Diagnosing faults in autonomous robot plan execution

A major requirement for an autonomous robot is the capability to diagnose faults during plan execution in an uncertain environment. Many diagnostic researches concentrate only on hardware failures within an autonomous robot. Taking a different approach, the implementation of a Telerobot Diagnostic System that addresses, in addition to the hardware failures, failures caused by unexpected event changes in the environment or failures due to plan errors, is described. One feature of the system is the utilization of task-plan knowledge and context information to deduce fault symptoms. This forward deduction provides valuable information on past activities and the current expectations of a robotic event, both of which can guide the plan-execution inference process. The inference process adopts a model-based technique to recreate the plan-execution process and to confirm fault-source hypotheses. This technique allows the system to diagnose multiple faults due to either unexpected plan failures or hardware errors. This research initiates a major effort to investigate relationships between hardware faults and plan errors, relationships which were not addressed in the past. The results of this research will provide a clear understanding of how to generate a better task planner for an autonomous robot and how to recover the robot from faults in a critical environment.

Lam, Raymond K.↗

Diagnosing faults in autonomous robot plan execution

A major requirement for an autonomous robot is the capability to diagnose faults during plan execution in an uncertain environment. Many diagnostic researches concentrate only on hardware failures within an autonomous robot. Taking a different approach, the implementation of a Telerobot Diagnostic System that addresses, in addition to the hardware failures, failures caused by unexpected event changes in the environment or failures due to plan errors, is described. One feature of the system is the utilization of task-plan knowledge and context information to deduce fault symptoms. This forward deduction provides valuable information on past activities and the current expectations of a robotic event, both of which can guide the plan-execution inference process. The inference process adopts a model-based technique to recreate the plan-execution process and to confirm fault-source hypotheses. This technique allows the system to diagnose multiple faults due to either unexpected plan failures or hardware errors. This research initiates a major effort to investigate relationships between hardware faults and plan errors, relationships which were not addressed in the past. The results of this research will provide a clear understanding of how to generate a better task planner for an autonomous robot and how to recover the robot from faults in a critical environment.

Lam, Raymond K.↗

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

On the Need for a Unified and Collaboratively Developed Residential Building Simulation Platform: Preprint

Residential building energy simulations are becoming ever more pervasive; they form the basis of energy efficient building design, zero energy goals, codes and standards, home certification and ratings industries, utility programs, regional/state planning, and technology assessments. And yet the residential building simulation community is highly fragmented with a patchwork of simulation engines with varying models, inputs, assumptions, and results. This inconsistency degrades confidence in these tools, increases industry-wide development and maintenance costs, and slows the availability of new efficiency technology models. The need for collaboration on an impartial, transparent, and capable residential building simulation platform has never been greater. But to develop and maintain a state-of-the-art simulation platform requires a dedicated and sustained investment. By leveraging existing resources and expertise from multiple entities/regions, a unified and collaboratively developed simulation platform can provide increased levels of energy efficiency at an accelerated pace. This paper presents the advantages and disadvantages of a unified residential building simulation platform in relationship to four real-world examples (RESNET HERS ratings, utility programs, California's Title 24, and DOE). The paper covers recent developments and improved capabilities that may move us closer to an ideal simulation platform and what challenges remain. The hope is to spur a frank and honest dialogue about how to work together towards the vision of achieving deeper and more reliable energy savings in the residential buildings industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On the Need for a Unified and Collaboratively Developed Residential Building Simulation Platform

Residential building energy simulations are becoming ever more pervasive; they form the basis of energy efficient building design, zero energy goals, codes and standards, home certification and ratings industries, utility programs, regional/state planning, and technology assessments. And yet the residential building simulation community is highly fragmented with a patchwork of simulation engines with varying models, inputs, assumptions, and results. This inconsistency degrades confidence in these tools, increases industry-wide development and maintenance costs, and slows the availability of new efficiency technology models. The need for collaboration on an impartial, transparent, and capable residential building simulation platform has never been greater. But to develop and maintain a state-of-the-art simulation platform requires a dedicated and sustained investment. By leveraging existing resources and expertise from multiple entities/regions, a unified and collaboratively developed simulation platform can provide increased levels of energy efficiency at an accelerated pace. This paper presents the advantages and disadvantages of a unified residential building simulation platform in relationship to four real-world examples (RESNET HERS ratings, utility programs, California's Title 24, and DOE). The paper covers recent developments and improved capabilities that may move us closer to an ideal simulation platform and what challenges remain. The hope is to spur a frank and honest dialogue about how to work together towards the vision of achieving deeper and more reliable energy savings in the residential buildings industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integrating the Mobility Energy Productivity Metric Into the Delaware Department of Transportation Statewide Model

The Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric quantifies the quality of mobility at a given location and evaluates how changes in the transportation system impact mobility over time, such as through infrastructure investments. This study demonstrates the integration of the MEP metric into the Delaware Department of Transportation's (DelDOT's) transportation planning process by utilizing data from its statewide travel demand model. Specifically, the study assesses MEP for the 2020 baseline conditions and three alternative scenarios - 2030, Churchman, and Old Orchard - across multiple travel modes, including driving, walking, biking, and transit. The findings highlight that mobility and accessibility in Delaware are primarily supported by the driving mode, while transit services remain relatively limited, often ranking below biking and walking in many areas. In the 2030 scenario, where network operations and opportunities expand as projected, overall statewide accessibility declines, although Kent and Sussex counties experience improvements. The results from the Churchman and Old Orchard scenarios indicate that local network enhancements can positively influence accessibility, though primarily at a localized level, demonstrating MEP's capability to capture regional accessibility changes. Further, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory team successfully transferred MEP operational knowledge to the DelDOT team through dockerization, enabling DelDOT to independently run MEP for various scenarios of interest. Integrating MEP into DelDOT's planning framework supports future project evaluations and decision-making by incorporating access to opportunities as a key dimension of transportation system assessment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY) resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SU-E-T-108: An Investigation of Cerenkov Light Production in the Exradin W1 Scintillator Under Various Measurement Conditions

Purpose: To investigate the effects of depth, fiber-optic cable bends, and incident radiation angle on Cerenkov production in the Standard Imaging Exradin W1. Methods: Measurements were completed using a Varian Clinac 21EX linear accelerator with an Exradin W1 scintillator as well as a cable-only scintillator (no scintillation material) to isolate the Cerenkov signal. The effects of cable bend radius and location were investigated by bending the fiber-optic cable into a circle with radii ranging from 1.0 to 10.8 cm and positioning the center of the coil at distances ranging from 10.0 to 175.0 cm from the photodiode. The effects of depth and incident radiation angle were investigated by performing measurements in water at depths ranging from 1.0 cm to 25.0 cm and angles ranging from 0° to 80°. Eclipse treatment-planning software was utilized to ensure a consistent dose was delivered to the W1 regardless of depth or angle. Results: Measured signal in both channels of the cable-only scintillator decreased as the bend radius decreased and as the distance between the bend and photodiode increased. A fiber bend of 1.0 cm radius produced a 17.1% decrease in the green channel response in the cable-only scintillator. The effect of depth was less severe; a maximum increase of 6.6% in the green channel response was observed at a depth of 25.0 cm in the W1. In the angular dependence investigation, the signal in both channels of the W1 peaked at an angle of 40°; which is in agreement with the nominal Cerenkov emission angle of 45°. Conclusion: The green channel response in the W1 (mainly Cerenkov signal) varied with depth, fiber-optic cable bends, and incident radiation angle. Fully characterizing Cerenkov production is essential to ensure it is properly accounted for in scintillator measurements. Research funding and materials received by Standard Imaging, Inc. (Middleton WI)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

21st Century Power Partnership Fellowship Program: Supporting Next-generation Planning Modeling Practices at South Africa's Power Utility Eskom

This presentation details the 21st Century Power Partnership's fellowship program accomplishments from 2016. This fellowship brought two fellows from South Africa's power utility, Eskom, to the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The fellows spent two weeks working to improve the fidelity of Eskom's PLEXOS long-term and short-term models, which are used in long-term generation planning exercises and capacity adequacy assessments. The fellows returned to Eksom equipped with a new suite of tools and skills to enhance Eksom's PLEXOS modeling capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

TU-C-17A-12: Towards a Passively Optimized Phase-Space Monte Carlo (POPMC) Treatment Planning Method: A Proof of Principle

Purpose: The advent of on-line/off-line adaptive, and biologically-conformal radiation therapy has led to a need for treatment planning solutions that utilize voxel-specific penalties, requiring optimization over a large solution space that is performed quickly, and the dose in each voxel calculated accurately. This work proposes a “passive” optimization framework, which is executed concurrently during Monte Carlo dose calculation, evaluating the cost/benefit of each history during transport, and creates a passively optimized fluence map. Methods: The Monte Carlo code Geant4 v9.6 was used for this study. The standard voxel geometry implementation was modified to support the passive optimization framework, with voxel-specific optimization parameters. Dose-benefit functions, which will increase a particle history’s weight upon dose deposition, were defined in a central collection of voxels to effectively create target structures. Histories that deposit energy to voxels are reweighted based on a voxel’s dose multiplied by its cost/benefit value. Upon full termination of each history, the dose contributions of that history are reweighted to reflect a contribution proportional to the history’s final weight. A parallel-planar 1.25 MeV photon fluence is transported through the geometry, and re-weighted at each dose deposition step. The resulting weight is tallied with the incident spatial and directional coordinates in a phase-space distribution. Results: A uniform incident fluence was reweighted during MC dose calculations to create an optimized fluence map which would generate dose profiles in target volumes that exhibit the same dose characteristics as the prescribed optimization parameters. An optimized dose profile, calculated concurrently with the phase-space, reflects the resulting dose distribution. Conclusion: This study demonstrated the feasibility of passively optimizing an incident fluence map during Monte Carlo dose calculations. The flexibility of the voxel-specific optimization framework allows a variety and combination of optimization parameters to be calculated for each voxel at every transportation step. This work is partially supported by Varian. This work is partially supported by the NIH.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Modeling of Tumor Control Probability in Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Adrenal Tumors

Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in the management of adrenal metastases is emerging as a well-tolerated, effective method of treatment for patients with limited metastatic disease. SBRT planning and treatment utilization are widely variable, and publications report heterogeneous radiation dose fractionation schemes and treatment outcomes. The objective of this analysis was to review the current literature on SBRT for adrenal metastases and to develop treatment guidelines and a model for tumor control probability of SBRT for adrenal metastases based on these publications.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Power demand risk models on milling machines

The measurement of power demand risks in manufacturing power systems will benefit manufacturers and the wider society. If the risks can be characterized using manufacturing parameters, manufacturers can better control risks originating in those parameters, select less power-risky production plans, and reduce utility costs and resource consumption. The measurement of risk can also help manufacturers and power suppliers to protect their power systems from unexpected disturbances. Existing measures of risk, however, do not consider time duration, and thus cannot accurately quantify the risks in manufacturing power systems; the risks of a period of high power demand must be evaluated with the duration of the surge. Therefore, new methods of measuring power demand risks are proposed, adapting measures drawn from the field of finance. With a focus on milling operations, processing power is shown to be a function of processing amount and processing time, and a power demand distribution is directly derived as a joint distribution of and A and T. A bivariate random variable model with copulas is applied to examine the correlation in the joint distribution. Then, based on evaluation of a probability distribution of power demand from and, new risk measures are introduced. Herein illustrative examples are provided to show how the proposed measures can quantify the power demand risks from milling machines, based on manufacturing parameters. Certain manufacturing parameters are found to affect overall power demand risks, including i) raw material type, ii) variability in processing time, and iii) correlation between and. In the examples, these three factors increase power demand risks by up to 108%, 67%, and 1% respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗