Results for “unpredictability” — Page 28

NASA NTRS2009

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Mars dust↗

NASA NTRS2008

Simulating Autonomous Telecommunication Networks for Space Exploration

Currently, most interplanetary telecommunication systems require human intervention for command and control. However, considering the range from near Earth to deep space missions, combined with the increase in the number of nodes and advancements in processing capabilities, the benefits from communication autonomy will be immense. Likewise, greater mission science autonomy brings the need for unscheduled, unpredictable communication and network routing. While the terrestrial Internet protocols are highly developed their suitability for space exploration has been questioned. JPL has developed the Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) tool to help characterize network designs and protocols. The results will allow future mission planners to better understand the trade offs of communication protocols. This paper discusses various issues with interplanetary network and simulation results of interplanetary networking protocols.

Segui, John S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗

NASA NTRS2015

Exprimental Results of the First Two Stages of an Advanced Transonic Core Compressor Under Isolated and Multi-Stage Conditions.

NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Program calls for investigation of the technology barriers associated with improved fuel efficiency for large gas turbine engines. Under ERA, the highly loaded core compressor technology program attempts to realize the fuel burn reduction goal by increasing overall pressure ratio of the compressor to increase thermal efficiency of the engine. Study engines with overall pressure ratio of 60 to 70 are now being investigated. This means that the high pressure compressor would have to almost double in pressure ratio while keeping a high level of efficiency. NASA and GE teamed to address this challenge by testing the first two stages of an advanced GE compressor designed to meet the requirements of a very high pressure ratio core compressor. Previous test experience of a compressor which included these front two stages indicated a performance deficit relative to design intent. Therefore, the current rig was designed to run in 1-stage and 2-stage configurations in two separate tests to assess whether the bow shock of the second rotor interacting with the upstream stage contributed to the unpredicted performance deficit, or if the culprit was due to interaction of rotor 1 and stator 1. Thus, the goal was to fully understand the stage 1 performance under isolated and multi-stage conditions, and additionally to provide a detailed aerodynamic data set for CFD validation. Full use was made of steady and unsteady measurement methods to understand fluid dynamics loss source mechanisms due to rotor shock interaction and endwall losses. This paper will present the description of the compressor test article and its measured performance and operability, for both the single stage and two stage configurations. We focus the paper on measurements at 97% corrected speed with design intent vane setting angles.

transonic compressors↗

NASA NTRS2015

Measurement of Visual Reaction Times Using Hand-held Mobile Devices

Modern mobile devices provide a convenient platform for collecting research data in the field. But,because the working of these devices is often cloaked behind multiple layers of proprietary system software, it can bedifficult to assess the accuracy of the data they produce, particularly in the case of timing. We have been collecting datain a simple visual reaction time experiment, as part of a fatigue testing protocol known as the Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT). In this protocol, subjects run a 5-minute block consisting of a sequence of trials in which a visual stimulus appears after an unpredictable variable delay. The subject is required to tap the screen as soon as possible after the appearance of the stimulus. In order to validate the reaction times reported by our program, we had subjects perform the task while a high-speed video camera recorded both the display screen, and a side view of the finger (observed in a mirror). Simple image-processing methods were applied to determine the frames in which the stimulus appeared and disappeared, and in which the finger made and broke contact with the screen. The results demonstrate a systematic delay between the initial contact by the finger and the detection of the touch by the software, having a value of 80 +- 20 milliseconds.

reaction time↗

NASA NTRS2015

Underestimation of Project Costs

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Cost estimation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Orion GN&C Fault Management System Verification: Scope And Methodology

In order to ensure long-term ability to meet mission goals and to provide for the safety of the public, ground personnel, and any crew members, nearly all spacecraft include a fault management (FM) system. For a manned vehicle such as Orion, the safety of the crew is of paramount importance. The goal of the Orion Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) fault management system is to detect, isolate, and respond to faults before they can result in harm to the human crew or loss of the spacecraft. Verification of fault management/fault protection capability is challenging due to the large number of possible faults in a complex spacecraft, the inherent unpredictability of faults, the complexity of interactions among the various spacecraft components, and the inability to easily quantify human reactions to failure scenarios. The Orion GN&C Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) team has developed a methodology for bounding the scope of FM system verification while ensuring sufficient coverage of the failure space and providing high confidence that the fault management system meets all safety requirements. The methodology utilizes a swarm search algorithm to identify failure cases that can result in catastrophic loss of the crew or the vehicle and rare event sequential Monte Carlo to verify safety and FDIR performance requirements.

Brown, Denise↗

NASA NTRS2016

Latent Hardeners for the Assembly of Epoxy Composites

Large-scale composite structures are commonly joined by secondary bonding of molded-and-cured thermoset components. This approach may result in unpredictable joint strengths. In contrast, assemblies made by co-curing, although limited in size by the mold, result in stable structures, and are certifiable for commercial aviation because of structural continuity through the joints. Multifunctional epoxy resins were prepared that should produce fully-cured subcomponents with uncured joining surfaces, enabling them to be assembled by co-curing in a subsequent out-of-autoclave process. Aromatic diamines were protected by condensation with a ketone or aldehyde to form imines. Properties of the amine-cured epoxy were compared with those of commercially available thermosetting epoxy resins and rheology and thermal analysis were used to demonstrate the efficacy of imine protection. Optimum conditions to reverse the protecting chemistry in the solid state using moisture and acid catalysis were determined. Alternative chemistries were also investigated. For example, chain reaction depolymerization and photoinitiated catalysts would be expected to minimize liberation of volatile organic content upon deprotection and avoid residual reactive species that could damage the resin. Results from the analysis of protected and deprotected resins will be presented.

Palmieri, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2014

Creating a Test-Validated Finite-Element Model of the X-56A Aircraft Structure

Small modeling errors in a finite-element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of the X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression and, therefore, in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of the X-56A aircraft. The ground-vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite-element model of the X-56A aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite-element model of the X-56A aircraft is improved using a model-tuning tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of the X-56A aircraft have been improved in a single optimization run. Frequency and the cross-orthogonality (mode shape) matrix were the primary focus for improvement, whereas other properties such as c.g. location, total weight, and off-diagonal terms of the mass orthogonality matrix were used as constraints. The end result was an improved structural dynamic finite-element model configuration for the X-56A aircraft. Improved frequencies and mode shapes in this study increased average flutter speeds of the X-56A aircraft by 7.6% compared to the baseline model.

ground vibration test↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

NASA NTRS2016

Planetary Defense Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human-Robot Teaming: From Space Robotics to Self-Driving Cars

In this talk, I describe how NASA Ames has been developing and testing robots for space exploration. In our research, we have focused on studying how human-robot teams can increase the performance, reduce the cost, and increase the success of space missions. A key tenet of our work is that humans and robots should support one another in order to compensate for limitations of manual control and autonomy. This principle has broad applicability beyond space exploration. Thus, I will conclude by discussing how we have worked with Nissan to apply our methods to self-driving cars, enabling humans to support autonomous vehicles operating in unpredictable and difficult situations.

robotics↗

NASA NTRS2017

Intrauterine Exposure to Maternal Stress Alters Bdnf IV DNA Methylation and Telomere Length in the Brain of Adult Rat Offspring

DNA methylation (addition of methyl groups to cytosines which normally represses gene transcription) and changes in telomere length (TTAGGG repeats on the ends of chromosomes) are two molecular modifications that result from stress and could contribute to the long-term effects of intrauterine exposure to maternal stress on offspring behavioral outcomes. Here, we measured methylation of Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf), a gene important in development and plasticity, and telomere length in the brains of adult rat male and female offspring whose mothers were exposed to unpredictable and variable stressors throughout gestation. Males exposed to prenatal stress had greater methylation (Bdnf IV) in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) compared to non-stressed controls. Further, prenatally-stressed males had shorter telomeres than controls in the mPFC. This study provides the first evidence in a rodent model of an association between prenatal stress exposure and subsequent shorter brain telomere length. Together findings indicate a long-term impact of prenatal stress on DNA methylation and telomere biology with relevance for behavioral and health outcomes, and contribute to a growing literature linking stress to intergenerational epigenetic alterations and changes in telomere length.

prenatal stress↗

NASA NTRS2017

Advanced Software V&V for Civil Aviation and Autonomy

With the advances in high-computing platform (e.g., advanced graphical processing units or multi-core processors), computationally-intensive software techniques such as the ones used in artificial intelligence or formal methods have provided us with an opportunity to further increase safety in the aviation industry. Some of these techniques have facilitated building safety at design time, like in aircraft engines or software verification and validation, and others can introduce safety benefits during operations as long as we adapt our processes. In this talk, I will present how NASA is taking advantage of these new software techniques to build in safety at design time through advanced software verification and validation, which can be applied earlier and earlier in the design life cycle and thus help also reduce the cost of aviation assurance. I will then show how run-time techniques (such as runtime assurance or data analytics) offer us a chance to catch even more complex problems, even in the face of changing and unpredictable environments. These new techniques will be extremely useful as our aviation systems become more complex and more autonomous.

software assurance↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of convergent or parallel evolution, which suggests that under certain conditions similar solutions are arrived at independently.

Universal biology; life everywhere↗

NASA NTRS2011

Filtering Methods for Error Reduction in Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Quaternion Star Trackers

Precision attitude determination for recent and planned space missions typically includes quaternion star trackers (ST) and a three-axis inertial reference unit (IRU). Sensor selection is based on estimates of knowledge accuracy attainable from a Kalman filter (KF), which provides the optimal solution for the case of linear dynamics with measurement and process errors characterized by random Gaussian noise with white spectrum. Non-Gaussian systematic errors in quaternion STs are often quite large and have an unpredictable time-varying nature, particularly when used in non-inertial pointing applications. Two filtering methods are proposed to reduce the attitude estimation error resulting from ST systematic errors, 1) extended Kalman filter (EKF) augmented with Markov states, 2) Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) with a periodic measurement model. Realistic assessments of the attitude estimation performance gains are demonstrated with both simulation and flight telemetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Calhoun, Philip C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Statistical Study of Solar Particle Events in Flux and Dose

The high-energy protons from solar energetic particle (SEP) events present a hazard to space systems: damage to science instruments/electronics/materials or to astronauts. A reliable estimate of the high-energy proton environment is critical to assure mission success. Important characteristics of an SEP event are fluence, peak flux, energy spectrum, time to reach the peak flux, time to reach peak dose, and properties of the cumulative dose profile after an event starts. All of these characteristics are important to understand in order to design space missions properly for both robotic and human missions. Because of the unpredictable and sporadic nature of SEP events, statistical models are often used to represent the SEP parameters described above. In a study by Jun et al. (2007), the statistics of event fluences, durations, and time intervals between events were investigated using the then available historical SEP dataset obtained from the instruments onboard the IMP-8 spacecraft. Since then, a more comprehensive SEP dataset based off of IMP-8 and GOES called Reference Data Set Version 2.0 (RDSv2.0) has become available covering the SEP events up to Year 2015 under a framework of the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (Jiggens et al., 2018). The main objectives of this statistical study of SEP events are two-fold: First, the statistics of peak fluxes, event fluences, durations, and time intervals will be re-visited by using RDSv2.0; Second, the statistical analyses of flux and dose timing will be performed using the same dataset RDSv2.0. The results of this study will address the statistical properties of all key parameters for designing a spacecraft or a human mission where the SEP environment is an important consideration.

Whitman, K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mapping Threats to Agriculture in East Africa: Performance of MODIS Derived LST for Frost Identification in Kenya's Tea Plantations

Increased prevalence of weather related hazards in eastern Africa including drought, floods, hail and frost threatening agricultural productivity. Kenya is heavily dependent on agriculture for economic growth (FAO 2013); (1) Agriculture contributed 23.5% and 21.5% of GDP in 2009 and 2010 respectively, (2) Employment to half a million households of smallholders and 150,000 on large tea estates. Tea growing in Kenya depends on stability of the weather; (1) Weather is unpredictable, (2) Frost has contributed 30% of tea leaf losses, (3) Drought has contributed 14-30%, (4) The losses are experienced between January and march - frost and dry season.

remote sensing↗