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At least 505 records · Page 28

Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Chang, C.-Y.↗

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

simulations↗

Moisture and Temperature Influences on Nonlinear Vegetation Trends in Serengeti National Park

While long-term vegetation greening trends have appeared across large land areas over the late 20th century, uncertainty remains in identifying and attributing finer-scale vegetation changes and trends, particularly across protected areas. Serengeti National Park (SNP) is a critical East African protected area, where seasonal vegetation cycles support vast populations of grazing herbivores and a host of ecosystem dynamics. Previous work has shown how non-climate drivers (e.g. land use) shape the SNP ecosystem, but it is still unclear to what extent changing climate conditions influence SNP vegetation, particularly at finer spatial and temporal scales. We fill this research gap by evaluating long-term (1982–2016) changes in SNP leaf area index (LAI) in relation to both temperature and moisture availability using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Principal Component Analysis with regression techniques. We find that SNP LAI trends are nonlinear, display high sub-seasonal variation, and are influenced by lagged changes in both moisture and temperature variables and their interactions. LAI during the long rains (e.g. March) exhibits a greening-to-browning trend reversal starting in the early 2000s, partly due to antecedent precipitation declines. In contrast, LAI during the short rains (e.g. November, December) displays browning-to-greening alongside increasing moisture availability. Rising temperature trends also have important, secondary interactions with moisture variables to shape these SNP vegetation trends. Our findings show complex vegetation-climate interactions occurring at important temporal and spatial scales of the SNP, and our rigorous statistical approaches detect these complex climate-vegetation trends and interactions, while guarding against spurious vegetation signals.

Moisture↗

Global ozone long-term trends from satellite measurements and the response to solar activity variations

Analysis of global ozone variations for the period April 1970 to December 1975 was performed by using the reprocessed Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements of total ozone. A correlation coefficient of 0.97 is found between the 6-month running mean of global mean total ozone (filtered for mean semiannual, annual, and quasibiennial variations) and the 10.7-cm solar activity index. Correcting ozone for a time-dependent latitudinal bias relative to Dobson ozone measurements reduces to 2-3% the global mean ozone variation over the solar cycle. The solar ultraviolet variability required in a one-dimensional time-dependent radiative photochemical model to account for the observed ozone variation appears to be consistent with recent solar UV observations.

Keating, G. M.↗

Identification of Crew-Systems Interactions and Decision Related Trends

NASA Vehicle System Safety Technology (VSST) project management uses systems analysis to identify key issues and maintain a portfolio of research leading to potential solutions to its three identified technical challenges. Statistical data and published safety priority lists from academic, industry and other government agencies were reviewed and analyzed by NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) systems analysis personnel to identify issues and future research needs related to one of VSST's technical challenges, Crew Decision Making (CDM). The data examined in the study were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Aviation Accident and Incident Data System, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Accident/Incident Data System and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). In addition, this report contains the results of a review of safety priority lists, information databases and other documented references pertaining to aviation crew systems issues and future research needs. The specific sources examined were: Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFIs), Flight Deck Automation Issues (FDAI) and NTSB Most Wanted List and Open Recommendations. Various automation issues taxonomies and priority lists pertaining to human factors, automation and flight design were combined to create a list of automation issues related to CDM.

Jones, Sharon Monica↗

The 13 years of TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor: From Individual Flash Characteristics to Decadal Tendencies

How often lightning strikes the Earth has been the object of interest and research for decades. Several authors estimated different global flash rates using ground-based instruments, but it has been the satellite era that enabled us to monitor lightning thunderstorm activity on the time and place that lightning exactly occurs. Launched into space as a component of NASA s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, in November 1997, the Lighting Imaging Sensor (LIS) is still operating. LIS detects total lightning (i.e., intracloud and cloud-to-ground) from space in a low-earth orbit (35deg orbit). LIS has collected lightning measurements for 13 years (1998-2010) and here we present a fully revised and current total lightning climatology over the tropics. Our analysis includes the individual flash characteristics (number of events and groups, total radiance, area footprint, etc.), composite climatological maps, and trends for the observed total lightning during these 13 years. We have identified differences in the energetics of the flashes and/or the optical scattering properties of the storms cells due to cell-relative variations in microphysics and kinematics (i.e., convective or stratiform rainfall). On the climatological total lightning maps we found a dependency on the scale of analysis (resolution) in identifying the lightning maximums in the tropics. The analysis of total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2010 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales, showed no systematic trends in the median to lower-end of the distributions, but most places in the tropics presented a decrease in the highest total lightning flash rates (higher-end of the distributions).

Albrecht, R. I.↗

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Vrieling, Anton↗

What Multilevel Parallel Programs do when you are not Watching: A Performance Analysis Case Study Comparing MPI/OpenMP, MLP, and Nested OpenMP

With the current trend in parallel computer architectures towards clusters of shared memory symmetric multi-processors, parallel programming techniques have evolved that support parallelism beyond a single level. When comparing the performance of applications based on different programming paradigms, it is important to differentiate between the influence of the programming model itself and other factors, such as implementation specific behavior of the operating system (OS) or architectural issues. Rewriting-a large scientific application in order to employ a new programming paradigms is usually a time consuming and error prone task. Before embarking on such an endeavor it is important to determine that there is really a gain that would not be possible with the current implementation. A detailed performance analysis is crucial to clarify these issues. The multilevel programming paradigms considered in this study are hybrid MPI/OpenMP, MLP, and nested OpenMP. The hybrid MPI/OpenMP approach is based on using MPI [7] for the coarse grained parallelization and OpenMP [9] for fine grained loop level parallelism. The MPI programming paradigm assumes a private address space for each process. Data is transferred by explicitly exchanging messages via calls to the MPI library. This model was originally designed for distributed memory architectures but is also suitable for shared memory systems. The second paradigm under consideration is MLP which was developed by Taft. The approach is similar to MPi/OpenMP, using a mix of coarse grain process level parallelization and loop level OpenMP parallelization. As it is the case with MPI, a private address space is assumed for each process. The MLP approach was developed for ccNUMA architectures and explicitly takes advantage of the availability of shared memory. A shared memory arena which is accessible by all processes is required. Communication is done by reading from and writing to the shared memory.

Jost, Gabriele↗

Inducing optimally directed non-routine designs

Non-routine designs are characterized by the creation of new variables and thus an expansion of the design space. These differ from routine designs in that the latter are restricted to a fixed set of variables and thus a pre-defined design space. In previous papers, the 1stPRINCE non-routine design methodology that expands the design space in such a way that optimal trends dictate the direction and form of this expansion is described. How inductive techniques can determine these optimal trends are examined. The induction techniques in 1stPRINCE utilize constraint information from monotonicity analysis to determine how to mutate the design space. The process observes the constraint information of mutated designs and induces trends from those constraints. Application of 1stPRINCE to a beam under flexural load leads to an optimally directed tapered beam. An interesting application of 1stPRINCE to determine the optimally directed shape of a spinning square block such that resistance to spinning is minimized leads to the discovery of a circular wheel.

Cagan, Jonathan↗

Consideration of some factors affecting low-frequency fuselage noise transmission for propeller aircraft

Possible reasons for disagreement between measured and predicted trends of sidewall noise transmission at low frequency are investigated using simplified analysis methods. An analytical model combining incident plane acoustic waves with an infinite flat panel is used to study the effects of sound incidence angle, plate structural properties, frequency, absorption, and the difference between noise reduction and transmission loss. Analysis shows that these factors have significant effects on noise transmission but they do not account for the differences between measured and predicted trends at low frequencies. An analytical model combining an infinite flat plate with a normally incident acoustic wave having exponentially decaying magnitude along one coordinate is used to study the effect of a localized source distribution such as is associated with propeller noise. Results show that the localization brings the predicted low-frequency trend of noise transmission into better agreement with measured propeller results. This effect is independent of low-frequency stiffness effects that have been previously reported to be associated with boundary conditions.

Mixson, J. S.↗

Global Precipitation Means and Variations with the New Version of GPCP

Knowledge of global precipitation means, patterns and variations is essential for understanding the global water cycle. The observation-based global analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has been a key input to many such studies, including those related to means of the global (and regional) water and energy cycles. A new version (Version 3.1) of the GPCP monthly analysis is now available (1983-2019), with finer spatial resolution (0.5º latitude/longitude), updated satellite algorithms, latest gauge analysis over land from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and with ocean climatologies adjusted using information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and CloudSat. The presentation will give key findings from the new analysis, compare with the previous version, link to studies of the water cycle and compare to CMIP6 climate model results. The GPCP Monthly V3.1 analysis uses a Tropical Composite Climatology (TCC) using 22 years (1998-2019) of TRMM and GPM-based surface precipitation estimates from passive microwave, radar and combined passive microwave and radar observations to adjust the long-term mean values in the tropics over ocean. At higher latitudes over ocean climatological values of merged CloudSat and GPM combined passive microwave and radar surface precipitation estimates are used. The result of the new algorithms and procedures is an ocean mean value 60º N to 60º S of 3.2 mm/d, an increase of 7% from the older V2.3. Over land the gauge analysis (from GPCC in Germany), combined with satellite estimates results in a small decrease (~ 0.5%) from the previous version, giving a total global precipitation mean of 2.81 mm/d for V3.1, an increase of 4.5%. Variations from inter-annual to trend scales over most of the ocean are driven by the Colorado State University (CSU) Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm applied to SSMI/SSMIS satellite data. The new GPCP version retains a near zero trend of global precipitation, with significant positive trends in the deep tropics along the Pacific ITCZ and elsewhere, countered by middle latitude decreases, very similar to the previous version of the GPCP Monthly analysis. The pattern of trends is similar to that of AMIP climate model results, driven by observed SSTs for the period in question, but very different from results for “free-running” CMIP historical ensembles, likely due in part to the relatively short comparison period and effects of inter-decadal variations in the GPCP and AMIP results that are not in the “history” models. Interannual variations are also nearly the same in the new version, but with finer detail, although ENSO variations over the ocean have slightly larger amplitude than before, an effect likely related to the change in ocean satellite algorithm used in Version 3. For precipitation intensity (percentiles) at the monthly scale, especially in the tropics, GPCP shows a positive trend for the upper one third of the percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th) and a much weaker positive trend for the lowest percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), while negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (20th-65th). AMIP results agree with those from the GPCP in terms of the sign of the changes/trends for high and intermediate percentiles. The CMIP historical results also agree in the sign of the trends, but the trends are weaker. Comparisons with other types of CMIP historical simulations including the GHG-only, aerosol-only, and nature-only runs suggest that the observed changes/trends in precipitation amount and intensity during the GPCP period are dominated by a combination of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic GHG-related surface warming.

Robert Adler↗

NASA metric system study

Statistical analysis of metric and English unit usage and trends in technical documents generated by NASA Centers

Carlson, O.↗

Technology transfer and other public policy implications of multi-national arrangements for the production of commercial airframes

A study to examine the question of technology transfer through international arrangements for production of commercial transport aircraft is presented. The likelihood of such transfer under various representative conditions was determined and an understanding of the economic motivations for, effects of, joint venture arrangements was developed. Relevant public policy implications were also assessed. Multinational consortia with U.S. participation were focused upon because they generate the full range of pertinent public issues (including especially technology transfer), and also because of recognized trends toward such arrangements. An extensive search and analysis of existing literature to identify the key issues, and in-person interviews with executives of U.S. and European commercial airframe producers was reviewed. Distinctions were drawn among product-embodied, process, and management technologies in terms of their relative possibilities of transfer and the significance of such transfer. Also included are observations on related issues such as the implications of U.S. antitrust policy with respect to the formation of consortia and the competitive viability of the U.S. aircraft manufacturing industry.

Gellman, A. J.↗

The 1977 surface ozone study of eastern Virginia

Data were collected by primarily twelve ground stations positioned throughout the eastern shore - tidewater area of Virginia and North Carolina. From an analysis of the ozone and wind data, certain trends were found such as the existence of a bias in ozone concentrations between stations and a linear correlation between average ozone concentration and latitude. In addition, higher ozone levels were found with surface winds from certain preferred directions at the various sites. The results, however, do not substantiate ozone or ozone precursor transport.

Williams, M. E.↗

Interaction of fan rotor flow with downstream struts

The detailed unsteady pressure field produced on the rotor blades of an axial-flow fan by interaction with downstream struts was investigated. The experimental arrangement was similar to that found in the fan casings of turbofan aircraft engines. Acoustically significant pressure fluctuations were measured on both thy suction and pressure sides of the rotor blades for several positions of the downstream struts. The level of the observed interaction decreased with increased spacing of the struts behind the rotor. An inviscid flow analysis for the disturbance level is compared with trends of the measured results.

Obrien, W. F., Jr.↗

Measurement and analysis of acoustic flight test data for two advanced design high speed propeller models

The recent test program, in which the SR-2 and SR-3 Prop-Fan models were acoustically tested in flight, is described and the results of analysis of noise data acquired are discussed. The trends of noise levels with flight operating parameters are shown. The acoustic benefits of the SR-3 design with swept blades relative to the SR-2 design with straight blades are shown. Noise data measured on the surface of a small-diameter microphone boom mounted above the fuselage and on the surface of the airplane fuselage are compared to show the effects of acoustic propagation through a boundary layer. Noise level estimates made using a theoretically based prediction methodology are compared with measurements.

Brooks, B. M.↗

Buckling behavior of compression-loaded symmetrically-laminated angle-ply plates with holes

An approximate analysis for buckling of a rectangular specially-orthotropic plate with a central circular hole is applied to symmetrically-laminated angle-ply plates. Results obtained from finite element analyses and experiments indicate that the approximate analysis predicts accurately the buckling loads of (+/-theta sub m)s plates with integer values of m not below 6 and with hole diameters up to 50 percent of the plate width. Moreover, the results indicate that the approximate analysis can be used to predict the buckling trends of plates with hole diameters up to 70 percent of the plate width. Results of a parametric study indicate the influence of hole size, plate aspect ratio, loading conditions, boundary conditions, and orthotropy on the buckling load. Results are also presented that indicate the relationship of the bending stiffness and the prebuckling load distribution to the buckling load of a plate with a hole.

Nemeth, M. P.↗