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At least 505 records · Page 28

Real-Time Lifetime Prediction of Semiconductor Devices Using Hardware-in-the-Loop

This paper presents a unique approach to enable real-time lifespan prediction of semiconductor power modules using a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) system. By integrating the module's overall loss characteristics-specifically switching and conduction losses-with a thermoelectric model of the thermal management system, this research demonstrates that the model can dynamically estimates the junction temperature profile of the semiconductor devices in response to a changing torque demand profile for the motor drive system. This capability enables continuous monitoring of the module's operational time and cumulative stress induced on the devices to compute accumulated remaining lifetime or time-to-failure (TTF). This study provides an architectural framework for the HIL system with high-fidelity component models of multiple physical domains, allowing simulation of dynamic behaviors of a closely-coupled motor drive system. The advanced real-time computation and measurement functionalities of the HIL system allow for both dynamic lifetime calculations based on simulated data and aggregate lifetime predictions utilizing historical data. Moreover, this paper details an algorithm that not only computes cumulative damage but also synthesizes these data into a comprehensive aggregated lifetime metric. This methodology can enhance the maintenance scheduling strategies and operational reliability of semiconductor devices in critical applications, ultimately extending their service life while optimizing performance.

hardware-in-the-loop (HIL)↗

A Population-Level Summary of Health Care Utilization for the Management of Patellar Tendinopathy in the Military Health System

Abstract Patellar tendinopathy (PT) is a common nontraumatic orthopaedic disorder of the knee suffered by many service members. Understanding the make-up of usual care for PT at the system level can better frame current clinical gaps and areas that need improvement. Exercise therapy is recommended as a core treatment for PT, but it is unclear how often it is used as a part of usual care for PT within the Military Health System (MHS). The purpose of the study was to identify interventions used in the management of PT and the timing of these interventions. A secondary purpose was to determine if exercise therapy use was associated with reduced recurrence of knee pain. In total, 4,719 individuals aged 17 to 50 years in the MHS diagnosed with PT between 2010 and 2011 were included. Pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions, visits to specialty providers, and imaging services were captured. Descriptive statistics were used to report the findings. Interventions were further categorized as being part of initial care (within the first 7 days), the initial episode of care (within the first 60 days), or the 2-year time period after diagnosis. Linear regression assessed the relationship between the number of exercise therapy visits in the initial episode of care and recurrences of knee pain. In total, 50.6% of this cohort had no more than one medical visit total for PT. Exercise therapy (18.2%) and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (4.3%) were the two most used interventions in the initial episode of care. Radiographs were ordered for 23.1% of the cohort in the initial episode of care. The number of exercise therapy visits a patient received during the initial episode of care was not associated with recurrences of knee pain. Half of the individuals received no further care beyond an initial visit for the diagnosis of PT. Exercise therapy was the most common intervention used during the initial episode of care, but exercise therapy did not influence the recurrence of knee pain.

Orthopedics↗

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations Version 2.0

This report explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) as a transformative tool to enhance fault-tolerant operations in electrical distribution systems. Leveraging DLT's core attributes, including an immutable decentralized ledger, distributed consensus mechanisms, and state replication capabilities, this study focuses on three critical use cases. A central aspect of this research centers on the utilization of a consensus-driven ledger, providing actors within the system, such as distributed resources, with access to a reliable data repository. This empowers these actors to collaborate effectively and make informed decisions, all securely recorded on the blockchain. The first use case concentrates on data configuration, utilizing mathematical criteria---particularly, the chi-squared test for gross error detection---to identify trustworthy sensors for advanced decision-making. Building upon this foundation of trust, the second use case, topology identification, accurately determines circuit breaker states, unveiling the distribution network's topology. Ultimately, the third use case leverages this trust to execute switching actions, reconfiguring feeders and restoring power to disconnected customers after fault events. The concept of trust serves as a cornerstone in this approach, marking a departure from traditional fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR) methods. Additionally, the blockchain-based architecture introduces decentralization, empowering disconnected areas to make autonomous decisions, even when communication with a central control center is disrupted. The primary contributions of this report are twofold: (1) a novel approach for evaluating distribution system voltage areas while preserving data ownership and (2) the implementation of interactions between distribution network areas using the actor model. Unlike the previous sequential approach for evaluating the area connection voltages, which required a radial network topology, this study's area model reduction enables a more versatile approach. The area model reduction addresses issues of prolonged data waiting times and multiple points of failure within the previous approach. Notably, the presented evaluation for the reduced network model area connection reveals a significant increase in the differences in voltage magnitudes. Simulation and evaluation of area agents across four distinct cases elucidate the area-level interaction behavior during a fault event. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed distributed FLISR (DFLISR) approach can successfully restore service to an affected area. Varying message delays and message loss probabilities in each simulation case underscore their impacts on restoration times, ranging from 3 min and 32 s to 6 min and 19 s. In contrast, power is not restored in an area in one of our simulation cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Optimization-Based Planning Tool for On-Demand Mobility Service Operations

Regions worldwide are adopting and exploring low-speed automated electric shuttle (AES) service as an on-demand shared mobility service in dense geofenced urban areas. Building on this concept, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently developed the Automated Mobility District (AMD) toolkit. The AMD toolkit—comprising of a travel micro-simulation model and an energy estimation model—estimates the mobility and energy impacts of a given shuttle configuration within an AMD. Early-stage AMD deployments need to find optimal operational configurations that include: (a) passenger capacity of an AES, (b) time-dependent routes, and (c) fleet size (AES units) to satisfy the demand for the region. This research extends the AMD toolkit functionality by developing an optimization-based planning module that will assist in the operations of AES units. We developed a constrained mixed-integer program accounting for passenger waiting time, battery range, and passenger capacity of AES units. For scalability, we demonstrated the Tabu search-based solution technique for a real-world network—a proposed AMD deployment in Greenville, South Carolina, USA. Compared to rule-based operations, our developed solution yields higher travel time and energy savings for the network at different demand levels. The sensitivity analyses for waiting time thresholds indicate nonlinearity in the system performance, underscoring the need to meet shared-use mobility user-level expectations. The developed optimization framework can be adapted and extended to accommodate different categories of shared-use on-demand mobility services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Joint Optimization of Multimodal Transit Frequency and Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Size with Hybrid Metaheuristic and Nonlinear Programming

Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) bring competition to traditional transit services but redesigning multimodal transit network can utilize SAVs as feeders to enhance service efficiency and coverage. This paper presents an optimization framework for the joint multimodal transit frequency and SAV fleet size problem, a variant of the transit network frequency setting problem. The objective is to maximize total transit ridership (including SAV-fed trips and subtracting boarding rejections) across multiple time periods under budget constraints, considering endogenous mode choice (transit, point-to-point SAVs, driving) and route selection, while allowing for strategic route removal by setting frequencies to zero. Due to the problem’s non-linear, non-convex nature and the computational challenges of large-scale networks, we develop a hybrid solution approach that combines a metaheuristic approach (particle swarm optimization) with nonlinear programming for local solution refinement. To ensure computational tractability, the framework integrates analytical approximation models for SAV waiting times based on fleet utilization, multimodal network assignment for route choice, and multinomial logit mode choice behavior, bypassing the need for computationally intensive simulations within the main optimization loop. Applied to the Chicago metropolitan area’s multimodal network, our method illustrates a 33.3% increase in transit ridership through optimized transit route frequencies and SAV integration, particularly enhancing off-peak service accessibility and strategically reallocating resources.

Ng, Max↗

Water availability modulates maximum canopy heights of low-elevation Amazonian second-growth forests

Tropical second-growth forests of the Amazon sequester large amounts of carbon and are important carbon sinks, contributing substantially to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and providing crucial ecosystem services. Deforestation due to selective logging and shifting cultivation is expanding second-growth forest areas in tropical forest regions, which if well managed, regenerate rapidly over time. Maximum forest canopy height is an important metric of biomass and carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and is strongly influenced by water availability. The water limitation hypothesis explains the positive influence of water availability on maximum tree heights and has been examined and demonstrated at a small-scale using field data, and at a global scale, with limited accuracy, using remote sensing data in tropical ecosystems. However, this hypothesis concerning maximum canopy height has not been much studied at regional and national scales for tropical second-growth forests. In this study, we leveraged NASA GEDI spaceborne lidar data across the Brazilian Amazon and derived second-growth forest relative height metrics for delineating the influence of water availability, second-growth forest age, and topographic elevation on maximum canopy height. Water availability was found to significantly influence the maximum canopy height of second-growth forest trees, of age range from 30 to 35 years, at elevations less than 500 m and maximum precipitation thresholds of 1500 mm. Our results indicate that changing precipitation patterns or increased drought conditions under different climate change regimes could impact forest structure, plant communities, ecosystem functioning, and carbon sequestration capabilities of tropical second-growth forests in the Amazon.

Carbon sequestration↗

Towards elastic in situ analysis for high-performance computing simulations

In situ analysis and visualization have grown increasingly popular for enabling direct access to data from high-performance computing (HPC) simulations. As a simulation progresses and interesting physical phenomena emerge, however, the data produced may become increasingly complex, and users may need to dynamically change the type and scale of in situ analysis tasks being carried out and consequently adapt the amount of resources allocated to such tasks. To date, none of the production in situ analysis frameworks offer such an elasticity feature, and for good reason: the assumption that the number of processes could vary during run time would force developers to rethink software and algorithms at every level of the in situ analysis stack. In this paper we present Colza, a data staging service with elastic in situ visualization capabilities. We demonstrate the use of Colza with the Deep Water Impact and the AMR-Wind simulations, coupling them with the ParaView Catalyst and Ascent in situ libraries, and show that Colza enables dynamic rescaling of these widely-used frameworks with no interruption to the simulation or staging service. Here, we highlight the challenges of enabling such elasticity, which requires overcoming these frameworks' reliance on MPI, using distinct engineering approaches, namely dependency injection and dependency overload. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to enable elastic in situ visualization capabilities for HPC applications on top of existing production analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Laser-free GHz stroboscopic transmission electron microscope: Components, system integration, and practical considerations for pump–probe measurements

In this work a 300 keV transmission electron microscope was modified to produce broadband pulsed beams that can be, in principle, between 40 MHz and 12 GHz, corresponding to temporal resolution in the nanosecond to picosecond range without an excitation laser. The key enabling technology is a pair of phase-matched modulating and de-modulating traveling wave metallic comb striplines (pulsers). An initial temporal resolution of 30 ps was achieved with a strobe frequency of 6.0 GHz. The placement of the pulsers, mounted immediately below the gun, allows for preservation of all optical configurations, otherwise available to the unmodified instrument, and therefore makes such a post-modified instrument for dual-use, i.e., both pulsed-beam mode (i.e., stroboscopic time-resolved) and conventional continuous waveform mode. In this article, we describe the elements inserted into the beam path, challenges encountered during integration with an in-service microscope, and early results from an electric-field-driven pump–probe experiment. We conclude with ideas for making this class of instruments broadly applicable for examining cyclical and repeatable phenomena.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Integrating Spatial and Ethnographic Methods for Resilience Research: A Thick Mapping Approach for Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria left unprecedented impacts on Puerto Rican communities, leaving some without infrastructure services and unable to communicate with family for several months. Here, to understand the forms of community-level resilience that emerged while hard infrastructure systems took time recover, this article (1) abductively explores resilience as an emergent phenomenon of complex adaptive systems; (2) identifies subsequent forms of social capital, local adaptive capacities, and manifestations of quantifiable variables, such as infrastructure performance, in community experiences; and (3) demonstrates a framework to integrate disparate methodologies for resilience assessments via a multiplicity of mappings of space and place. We combine ethnographic and geospatial methods into an interactive GeoApp for analysis using participant-coded narratives and a series of geospatial indicators as a thick map. Thick mapping facilitates quantitative and qualitative data analysis at several scales, while enabling qualitative query of collected narratives. Results highlight local innovation, community bonding and bridging, and nuances in the role of public institutions as emergent elements of resilience. The thick map shows how top-down assessments can be augmented by thick data and how multiple framings can be anchored in the same system or place. These findings are important to inform and integrate community-oriented and technocentric solutions toward resilience-enhancing measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensing Service Transformer Secondary Currents using Planar Magnetic Pick-up Coils

The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) is creating stresses on utility assets in the distribution networks. The service transformer, which is the most commonly used utility asset is often not monitored, since the cost of available sensing solutions is as high as the transformer itself. This paper presents a method to use an array of printed circuit board coils to intelligently monitor North American pole top service transformers. The approach, uses a novel, self-calibrating algorithm to infer the fixed geometry of the installation, by recording data over an extended period of time. The proposed method can enable rapid installation of a non-intrusive sensor that can be used to monitor loading levels of the distribution transformer. Furthermore, these sensors can help in planning, prognostics and advanced situational awareness for utilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A2E2G (Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid platform) [SWR-23-22]

A2E2G is a platform that integrates 1) forecasting tools to account for weather uncertainty, with 2) aerodynamic wind plant models to account for wake dynamics and wind plant operation, and 3) economic models to advise on operation for a wind power plant that offers grid services in addition to energy. The A2E2G platform can be used as a high-level controller for a wind plant for market participation and real-time wind plant control. The A2E2g platform is a holistic Python tool with modules that can be run to 1) advise on market participation and 2) control and operate a wind power plant in real time. The A2E2g framework assumes two stages: the first stage is in day-ahead and the second stage is in real-time. Managing uncertainty is key in the first stage and managing variability is key in the second stage. The different components have models written and developed in the Python programming language. The code is assembled into a Python package and can be easily downloaded and installed from the A2E2g repository (https://github.com/NREL/a2e2g).

Sinner, Michael↗

GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability

George Ostrouchov, Don Maxwell, Rizwan Ashraf, Mallikarjun Shankar, and James Rogers. 2020. GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability. In Proceedings of the International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC '20). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA. Data and code for SC20 paper about Titan GPU reliability analysis: https://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULife. Includes R code to generate graphics for paper and additional analyses. See code/README for instructions. Includes original Titan GPU reliability data on over 100,000 collective hours of operation: data/titan.gpu.history.txt - history data, data/titan.service.txt - service nodes for exclusion. Includes output data files produced by code/TitanGPUmodel.Rmd: data/gc_full.csv - cleaned up data (see paper and R code); data/gc_summary_loc.csv - one record per GPU (variables: SN, time, nlife, nloc, last, col, row, cage, slot, node, max_loc_events, time_max_loc, dbe, dbe_loc, otb, otb_loc, out, batch, days, years, dead, dead_otb, dead_dbe) (see paper and R code). Includes .Rmd analysis document as TitanGPUmode.html. Includes Python code to process data/gc_full.csv into graphics from time-between-failure analyses: See code/tbf-analyses/README for instructions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Large-Scale Adoption of Self Synchronized Universal Droop Controller-Based Inverters to Enable Ancillary Services for Different Modes of Distribution System Operations

This poster presents the results of using the self-synchronized universal droop controller to enable solar power to provide ancillary services so that the use of solar power can be increased. A 300-node system using the IEEE 123 bus test feeder are modeled on a real time power system simulator with the results presented.

Arce, Laura↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Survey of Aging and Monitoring Concerns for Cables and Splices Due to Cable Repair and Replacement

The purpose of this report is to survey aging and monitoring concerns for electrical cable splices in nuclear power plants (NPPs) in long term operation. As portions of existing electrical cable runs in nuclear are replaced over time due to localized events, the total number of splices in NPPs is expected to increase. Relative to cables, the body of knowledge regarding aging of splices and splices in combination with aging cables in nuclear service environments in long-term operations is low. A few reports have considered the aging of cable system components other than cables (Jacobus 1990; Nelson 1998; Villaran and Lofaro 2002), but the nuclear industry has two decades of operating experience since these were published to further enlighten this issue. Herein we discuss electrical cables and splices commonly found in U.S. nuclear power plants, their qualification in safety-related application, and methods for monitoring their health condition. Common environmental stresses that can give rise to cable and splice failure are discussed. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Licensee Event Reports (LER) database was used to identify documented issues of cable and splice failure. The trend in the resultant data over time is considered to see if failures are increasing as plants age. Observations and conclusions of this work include: 1. Cables and splices are highly reliable components. Occurrence rates for events of interest were low and nearly constant over the last 20 years. 2. Common-cause failure for evaluated cable events of interest was observed to primarily be associated with loose connections, which may manifest associated with workmanship issues, thermal cycling, and/or vibration. 3. Replacement of cables is more common than repair, leading to an increase in proportion of new generation cables in the plant over time. 4. Splices on degraded cables have been observed to be problematic. Due to aging NPP infrastructure, including electrical cables, it is expected that such issues will continue to increase. 5. Condition monitoring approaches, while shown to be fruitful for cables, have been shown to be insensitive to degradation of splice sleeves, which are critical to the continued performance of splices. Additional condition monitoring (CM) work is needed to evaluate methods which are sensitive to the degradation of splice components. 6. Extended Material Degradation Assessment (EMDA) knowledge gaps for electrical cables (Bernstein et al. 2014) have not been investigated for splices but may represent similar concerns such as for the accelerated aging process historically used in environmental qualification.

42 ENGINEERING↗