SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “surrogate systems modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural networks for DC blocker placement

The threat of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) to the reliable operation of the bulk energy system has spurred the development of effective strategies for mitigating their impacts. One such approach involves placing transformer neutral blocking devices, which interrupt the path of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to limit their impact. The high cost of these devices and the sparsity of transformers that experience high GICs during GMD events, however, calls for a sparse placement strategy that involves high computational cost. To address this challenge, we developed a physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural network (PIHGNN) for solving the graph-based dc-blocker placement problem. Our approach combines a heterogeneous graph neural network (HGNN) with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to capture the diverse types of nodes and edges in ac/dc networks and incorporates the physical laws of the power grid. We train the PIHGNN model using a surrogate power flow model and validate it using case studies. Results demonstrate that PIHGNN can effectively and efficiently support the deployment of GIC dc-current blockers, ensuring the continued supply of electricity to meet societal demands. Furthermore, our approach has the potential to contribute to the development of more reliable and resilient power grids capable of withstanding the growing threat that GMDs pose.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Light-Duty Spark Ignition Engine Research: Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines and Partnership to Advance Combustion Engines (FY2020 Annual Progress Report)

This report covers recent progress on research tasks that support both the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines (Co-Optima) initiative and the Partnership to Advance Combustion Engines (PACE) consortium. The Co-Optima tasks further the science-base needed by industry stakeholders to co-evolve the next generation of highly efficient direct injection spark ignition (DISI) engines and new gasoline-type fuels. The research emphasis is on fuel effects on multimode spark ignition (SI) engine operation, which uses traditional non-dilute stoichiometric operation for peak load and power but reverts to lean operation at lower loads to provide higher fuel economy. This work focuses on determining desirable fuel specifications in terms of well-established metrics like research octane number (RON) and motor octane number, but it also involves the assessment of new fuel metrics, including fuel sooting propensity and phi-sensitivity. The PACE task supports the development of predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling, which promises to unlock new strategies for high-efficiency combustion while minimizing tailpipe emissions. Here, the primary fuel is a regular E10 gasoline (i.e., a regular gasoline blend containing 10% ethanol), and focus is on fuel-spray dynamics and soot emissions. Soot-formation pathways are studied to determine how the pathways change with injection strategies and the thermal state of the engine (i.e., cold-starting vs. fully warmed-up operation). This PACE task also contributed to the development of an optimal E10 gasoline surrogate fuel, as reported in detail elsewhere

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Transported Livengood–Wu Integral Model for Knock Prediction in Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation

This work describes the development of a transported Livengood–Wu (L–W) integral model for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict autoignition and engine knock tendency. The currently employed L–W integral model considers both single-stage and two-stage ignition processes, thus can be generally applied to different fuels such as paraffin, olefin, aromatics, and alcohol. The model implementation is first validated in simulations of homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) combustion for three different fuels, showing good accuracy in prediction of autoignition timing for fuels with either single-stage or two-stage ignition characteristics. Then, the L–W integral model is coupled with G-equation model to indicate end-gas autoignition and knock tendency in CFD simulations of a direct-injection spark-ignition engine. This modeling approach is about 10 times more efficient than the ones that based on detailed chemistry calculation and pressure oscillation analysis. Two fuels with same Research Octane Number (RON) but different octane sensitivity are studied, namely, Co-Optima alkylate and Co-Optima E30. Feed-forward neural network model in conjunction with multivariable minimization technique is used to generate fuel surrogates with targets of matched RON, octane sensitivity, and ethanol content. The CFD model is validated against experimental data in terms of pressure traces and heat release rate for both fuels under a wide range of operating conditions. The knock tendency—indicated by the fuel energy contained in the autoignited region—of the two fuels at different load conditions correlates well with the experimental results and the fuel octane sensitivity, implying the current knock modeling approach can capture the octane sensitivity effect and can be applied to further investigation on composition of octane sensitivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Results of an In-Field Validation Exercise in Support of Wide-Area Environmental Sampling

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) Office of Nonproliferation and Arms Control (NA-24) is evaluating Wide-Area Environmental Sampling (WAES) as an additional safeguards verification tool for the International Atomic Energy Agency to detect undeclared nuclear activities. The NNSA is evaluating strategies for conducting a generic WAES campaign, the cost of a WAES campaign, and the effect of technological advancements that have occurred since the last major WAES review in 1999. Until now, the NNSA effort has focused on tabletop exercises (TTXs) in which high-performance computing allows for advanced modeling and simulation efforts to be applied to the WAES question. Although the modeling and simulations used in the TTXs are extremely valuable, field campaigns are still needed to validate the assumptions that underpin the models and the modeling process itself. During a 7 week period beginning in May 2023 and ending in June 2023, which included 4 weeks of active field collections, a multilaboratory team conducted its first in-field validation exercise. Prior to the in-field exercise, abbreviated TTXs were conducted to estimate the performance of all collection systems to be used during the field test. These TTXs guided the selection of materials to be released and the placement of the collection system. Based on these determinations, materials were procured to use in the field test, and an injection/release system was designed, built, and installed at the test facility. Background samples were collected during weeks one and four, and environmental collections against active releases were conducted during weeks two and three. The goals of this validation exercise included a demonstration of (1) the ability to provide controlled releases of particulates of surrogate materials, (2) the fielding and operation of collection systems (including deposition and active air collectors), and (3) the flexibility to revise equipment and campaign plans in the field. This paper presents the results and preliminary conclusions for this initial validation test. Based on these results, subsequent field campaigns are anticipated and will include the addition of other released materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a coupled experimental–computational approach for engineering optimization of spout-fluidized bed particle coating systems

The design of spout-fluidized bed (SFB) coating systems for nuclear particle fuels typically relies on trial-and-error processes, comprising iterative and time-consuming coating deposition experiments and post-deposition characterization. At an engineering scale, this approach to guided SFB system design is inefficient, highlighting the need for streamlined experimental methodologies which can correlate fluidization conditions to downstream coating outcomes. In this study, we combine time-resolved particle image velocimetry (PIV) with CFD–DEM simulations to benchmark hydrodynamic behavior in a 3D spout-fluidized bed. By exploiting easily accessible optical measurements of particle motion at the bed wall and within the spouting region, we obtain quantitative velocity fields that can be directly compared with model predictions of the occluded bed region, without resorting to complex imaging and characterization techniques such as X-ray or magnetic resonance tomography. Experimental benchmarking reveals strong agreement between CFD–DEM and PIV in the spout and annulus regions, while discrepancies near the wall highlight areas for future model development. Here, the proposed integrated experimental–numerical framework will enable a direct connection between measured variables and numerically predicted fluidization performance of dense, surrogate nuclear particle fuel feedstock such that experimental SFB component design can be rapidly evaluated, informing design decisions for nozzle geometry and operating conditions. Future work will extend this framework by correlating quantified fluidization metrics across nozzle geometries and operating conditions with the resulting coating morphology, microstructure, and uniformity. Establishing these correlations will enable predictive links between hydrodynamic performance and coating quality, providing a rational, scalable basis for optimizing SFB design prior to coating deposition.

CFD/DEM↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Decomposition-Based Learn-To-Optimize Approach with Feasibility Layer Assistance for Sub-Hourly Unit Commitment

Sub-hourly unit commitment (UC) with 15-min intervals is gaining significant attention as a way to respond rapidly to the fluctuations in electricity supply and demand introduced by renewable resources. However, the increased temporal resolution and complex inter-temporal dependencies pose substantial computational challenges for traditional optimization methods. To this end, this paper explores a decomposition-based learn-to-optimize approach. Building on recent advances in machine learning, our method revisits the long- overlooked Lagrangian relaxation framework, which is a classical decomposition technique that enables tractable subproblem solving. These smaller subproblems are inherently well-suited for machine learning, as their reduced dimensionality and structural regularity allow predictive models to efficiently learn and generalize solution patterns. We thus propose a generic predictive model, which embeds Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Attention in the encoder-decoder structure, and integrate a rule-based feasibility layer to capture temporal dependencies, reduce training effort, and improve feasibility w.r.t. unit-level constraints. Our method has been validated on the IEEE 118-bus system, demonstrating promising performance in solving sub-hourly UC problems efficiently and feasibly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

CCSI Toolset 3.20 Release

CCSI Toolset 3.20 Release Highlights Minimum Viable Product surrogate plugin was added for creating Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence models. Corresponding documentation was added for the plugin. Sequential Design of Experiments plots were updated to eliminate an issue with the window stack ordering upon closure of the plots. Support for Python 3.7 was removed. Documentation was improved by adding new mandatory section to the ReadTheDocs configuration and adding installation instructions back for NLOpt. TurbineLite was updated to 3.0.0, which is compatible with SimSinter 3.0.0. The developer environment was updated and 32-bit support was removed. SimSinter was updated to 3.0.0. This version removed gPROMS support and included security updates.

AS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of radiolytic hydrogen generation and impact of drying treatments on reactor exposed and surrogate aluminum materials

Technical challenges associated with dry storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel (ASNF) include a need to better understand the potential extent of gaseous molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) production through radiolytic degradation of the aluminum (oxy)hydroxide films present on ASNF. The characterization of radiolytic gas generation from ASNF (oxy)hydroxide layers has been identified as a key knowledge gap which poses a technical challenge to the long-term storage of ASNF. Task 2 of the action plan for the extended (>50 years) dry storage of ASNF addresses this gap. Previous radiolysis studies performed under Task 2 established baseline estimates of H 2 generation rates from the attendant hydrated oxides. The results confirmed that net radiolytic H 2 production has a dependency on absorbed gamma dose, as well as relative humidity and cover gas composition (air, nitrogen, and argon). Further experiments revealed that the physisorbed water on the samples may significantly impact the radiolytic H 2 yield. This phenomenon complicates the determination of H 2 generation rates for hydrated oxides, which may lead to inaccurate modeling predictions of the long-term H 2 yields in sealed storage systems containing ASNF, particularly when compared to spent fuel casks which have undergone some drying process intended to remove physically- and chemically-bound water. This report describes the testing methods utilized and the hydrogen generation results obtained in an investigation of the effects of gamma irradiation on aluminum materials for a variety of (oxy)hydroxide surface compositions and drying conditions. The testing methods included small-area aluminum material testing in ampules, and large-area aluminum material testing in steel vessels. Test material preparation, irradiation, and radiolytic H 2 measurement methods are summarized. The measured H 2 concentrations, which reflect the variable initial hydrated inventory and drying treatments, are compared to one another as well as to previously published data, to identify the primary factors affecting radiolytic H 2 generation rates and potential equilibrium H 2 concentrations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Spray and Combustion Models for Simulating Dilute Combustion in a Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition Engine

Dilute combustion in spark-ignition engines has the potential to improve thermal efficiency by mitigating knock and by reducing throttling and wall heat losses. However, ignition and combustion processes can become unstable for dilute operation due to a lowered laminar flame speed, resulting in excessive cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) of the combustion process. To compensate for the slower combustion in less reactive mixtures, a modified intake port geometry can be employed to generate a strong tumble flow in the cylinder and elevate turbulence levels around the spark plug, thereby promoting a faster transition to turbulent deflagration. Consequently, optimizing combustion chamber geometry and operating strategy is crucial to maximizing the benefits of using dilute combustion with enhanced in-cylinder turbulence across a wide range of operating conditions. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can be utilized for virtual engine optimization tasks, but this would require the models to be truly predictive regarding the impact of changes to the engine design and operational parameters.In this study, multicycle large-eddy simulations (LES) are performed for a direct-injection spark-ignition engine to investigate the model performance in predicting engine combustion characteristics with respect to changes in the intake configuration. A tumble plate that blocks the lower part of the intake port inlet is used to vary the tumble. A set of CFD models that have been recently developed are employed, which takes into account the drag of nonspherical droplets, flash-boiling behavior of liquid sprays, spray-wall interaction, surrogate formulation of a research-grade E10 gasoline, and fast chemical kinetic solvers. Simulation results are compared to experimental engine data in terms of cylinder pressure, apparent heat release rate, mass fraction burned timing, and flame images. It is found that LES employing the state-of-the-art CFD models are capable of properly predicting the spray processes and reproducing the measured mean cylinder pressure for the case with the tumble plate. On the other hand, the LES over-predicts the combustion rate during the early combustion stage and under-estimates the CCV, and these discrepancies become larger when the tumble plate is removed.

computational fluid dynamics simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design and Analysis of a Mutual Inductance Level Sensor for Liquid Metals

Here, this article describes the design and analysis of an electromagnetic level sensor for use in high-temperature liquid metal systems. The mutual inductance level sensor (MILS) described in this work was fabricated using two single-conductor mineral insulated cables wrapped in a bifilar fashion around a stainless steel tube core and was housed in an isolating thimble that preserved the pressure boundary of the test vessel. Two sensor variations were fabricated that differ only in active length, 1016 and 1778 mm. Experimental data were collected using the 1016-mm sensor (MILS-MKII-040) that demonstrated a sensitivity of 9.2 μ V/mm in a room temperature testing stand that used solid aluminum as a surrogate for liquid metal. Experimental data were collected using the 1778-mm sensor (MILS-MKII-070) that demonstrated a sensitivity of 6.9 μ V/mm in the high-temperature (300 ° C) liquid sodium environment at the mechanisms engineering test loop (METL) of Argonne National Laboratory. The sensor performance was found to be repeatable over the course of several months, with roughly ±1% deviation from nominal output. Finite element models were developed in COMSOL Multiphysics that fully describe each test setup, and the models were validated using experimental data. The validated COMSOL models were used to perform an array of analyses that examined the performance of the sensor in differing environments. Maximizing the coil diameter inside the isolating thimble was found to maximize the signal and sensitivity of the sensor. An optimal operating frequency was found near 1000 Hz using both experimental data and COMSOL. The influence of a metallic thimble surrounding the sensor and a metallic sensor core was quantified and found to be negligible at the optimal operating frequency. The sensitivity of the sensor was quantified when monitoring the level of additional liquid metals. These include lead, lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE), sodium-potassium alloy (NaK), and lithium (in addition to sodium). The sensitivities were quantified using liquid metal properties at 350 ° C and 650 ° C. The geometry of the test stand model, all material properties used in the model, and the results are presented in a manner that allows the reader can replicate the model and perform additional analyses.

COMSOL↗

DOE OSTI2021

A two-phase three-field modeling framework for heat pipe application in nuclear reactors

Heat pipes and two-phase thermosyphons are highly efficient heat transfer devices utilizing continuous evaporation and condensation of working fluid for two-phase heat transport in closed systems. Because of the nearly isothermal and fully passive phase-change heat transfer mechanism, heat pipes and thermosyphons have found many applications in nuclear engineering, space technologies, and other energy systems. High-temperature heat pipes are used in nuclear microreactors to remove fission power from the primary system and are coupled with power conversion systems or process heat applications. Modeling of the two-phase flow phenomena inside a heat pipe is essential to its design and safety analysis. In this study, a comprehensive one-dimensional two-phase three-field flow model has been developed for the analysis of heat pipes in normal operation conditions and transients. The conservation or field equations of mass, momentum, and energy were developed for the liquid film, vapor, and droplet. In addition, constitutive models or correlations were reviewed thoroughly and provided for the closure of the three-field equations. Specific constitutive equations regarding interfacial mass and heat transfer at two interfaces, namely film-gas interface and gas-droplet interface, were reviewed for droplet entrainment and deposition rates as well as film and droplet evaporation rates. Furthermore, mechanistic correlations of annular flow film thickness were recommended for the modeling of the thermosyphons without a wick as a critical constitutive correlation. Furthermore, experimental data needs from new experiments using a prototype working fluid or surrogate fluids for the model validation of high-temperature heat pipes in microreactors were recommended for future research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of Respirable Aerosol Release Fractions through Stress Corrosion Crack-Like Geometries

The formation of a stress corrosion crack (SCC) in the canister wall of a dry cask storage system (DCSS) has been identified as a potential issue for the long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel. The presence of an SCC in a storage system could represent a through-wall flow path from the canister interior to the environment. Modern, vertical DCSSs are of particular interest due to the significant backfill pressurization of the canister, up to approximately 800 kPa. This pressure differential offers a relatively high driving potential for blowdown of any particulates that might be present in the canister. In this study, the carrier gas flow rates and aerosol transmission properties were evaluated for an engineered microchannel with characteristic dimensions similar to those of an SCC. The microchannel was formed by mating two gage blocks with a slot orifice measuring 28.9 μm (0.0011 in.) tall by 12.7 mm (0.500 in.) wide by 8.86 mm (0.349 in.) long (flow length). Surrogate aerosols of cerium oxide, Ce0 2 , were seeded and mixed inside a pressurized tank. The aerosol characteristics were measured immediately upstream and downstream of the simulated SCC at elevated and ambient pressures, respectively. These data sets are intended to demonstrate a new capability to characterize SCCs under well-controlled boundary conditions. Separate modeling efforts are also underway that will be validated using these data. The test apparatus and procedures developed in this study can be easily modified for the evaluation of more complex SCC-like geometries including laboratory-grown SCC samples.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing on-machine metrology data for prints with a surrogate model for laser powder directed energy deposition

In this study, we leverage the massive amount of multi-modal on-machine metrology data generated from Laser Powder Directed Energy Deposition (LP-DED) to construct a comprehensive surrogate model of the 3D printing process. By employing Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control (DMDc), a data-driven technique, we capture the complex physics inherent in this extensive dataset. This physics-based surrogate model emphasizes thermodynamically significant quantities, enabling us to accurately predict key process outcomes. The model ingests 21 process parameters, including laser power, scan rate, and position, while providing outputs such as melt pool temperature, melt pool size, and other essential observables. Furthermore, it incorporates uncertainty quantification to provide bounds on these predictions, enhancing reliability and confidence in the results. We then deploy the surrogate model on a new, unseen part and monitor the printing process as validation of the method. Our experimental results demonstrate that the predictions align with actual measurements with high accuracy, confirming the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, this methodology not only facilitates real-time predictions but also operates at process-relevant speeds, establishing a basis for implementing feedback control in LP-DED.

Digital twins↗