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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China’s 1.5 °C Climate Target

Some key low-carbon technologies, ranging from wind turbines to electric vehicles, are underpinned by the strong rare-earth-based permanent magnets of the Nd, Pr (Dy)–Fe–Nb type (NdFeB). These NdFeB magnets, which are sensitive to demagnetization with temperature elevation (the Curie point), require the addition of variable amounts of dysprosium (Dy), where an elevation of the Curie point is needed to meet operational conditions. Given that China is the world’s largest REE supplier with abundant REE reserves, the impact of an ambitious 1.5 °C climate target on China’s Dy supply chain has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and innovation strategies associated with the linkage between Dy and NdFeBs under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2–3 decades to facilitate the 1.5 °C climate target. By implementing global available innovation strategies, such as material substitution, reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid 48%–68% of China’s cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, ongoing efforts in REE exploration and production are still required to meet China’s growing Dy demand, which will face competition from the United States, European Union, and other countries with ambitious climate targets. Here our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation in REE supply chains as well as in NdFeB innovation for the realization of a global climate-safe future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Survey of Direct Heating Equipment Market Actors in California

Direct Heating Equipment (DHE) is a category of ductless space heating appliances that provide warm air directly to the space where they are installed. We investigate, from the perspective of the DHE supply chain in California, what types of DHE are marketed in the state, how they are sold and serviced, and whether any potential barriers to adoption of high-efficiency DHE exist. We find that the market for DHE in the state is almost exclusively a replacement market, with some additional repair and maintenance services. We also find that, even though manufacturers sell high-efficiency DHE models in California, most contractors report installing baseline models most of the time. Contractors say their customers do not see any value in high-efficiency units, and they (contractors) do not believe that high-efficiency DHE is worth the additional cost to their customers. In addition, the majority of contractors purchase DHE from distributors and, therefore, distributors are a key piece of the supply chain that can constrain DHE purchase choice. Distributors do not see a demand for high-efficiency DHE and, hence, do not keep stock of these units. They argue that, since the market is driven mostly by replacements and these replacements occur typically in an unplanned way, homeowners are unwilling to pay for any additional costs associated with a high-efficiency model. Rather, homeowners usually prefer to replace the failed unit with a new unit that can fit in the same location with no- or minimal additional replacement costs. Considering that most DHE purchases are made by contractors, on behalf of their customers, informing contractors (and homeowners) of the potential cost-effectiveness of efficient DHE could help mitigate some of the barriers to the adoption of high-efficiency DHE in the state. In addition, monetary incentives and more stringent building codes that apply to DHE replacements can contribute to increasing adoption of high-efficiency DHE in California. This will not only reduce energy costs, but also increase safety and comfort to DHE users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status Quo of Heliostat Field Deployment Processes

Deployment of the solar field of a concentrating solar power plant is one of many factors that are integral to the success of a project. Knowledge transfer from outside the industry is limited due to the unique nature of heliostats, which redirect sunlight to a receiver with high precision while maintaining a high level of reflectivity. Moreover, learning from project to project can be limited due to the site-specific nature of projects, as the market includes several developers, each with their own unique design. In this paper, we discuss the state of the art in heliostat field deployment. We cover all the key aspects of deployment from project assessment to a fully functioning system, which include site selection, layout development, supply chain, assembly, site preparation and construction, calibration, and operations and maintenance.

concentrating solar power↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reduction of CO 2 Emissions Through Lightweight Body Panels (Project Final Report)

Lightweight construction is an integral part of Volkswagen’s overall strategy of reducing CO 2 emissions. Due to its low cost, steel is the most commonly used material for automotive exterior body panels today. Unfortunately, steel has a high density, resulting in a relatively low specific strength. Glass fiber based sheet molding compounds (SMC) provide high properties in combination with lower density. The high specific strength of SMC offers an enormous lightweight potential. To unlock the full potential of SMC materials in combination with cutting edge manufacturing processes, Volkswagen Group of America worked together with IACMI (Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing Innovation) and the academic partners: University of Tennessee Knoxville, Purdue University and Michigan State University; as well as the industry partners: Ashland, IDI, Owens Corning and Continental Structural Plastics. Leveraging the expertise of all project partners, reaching over the entire supply chain the project demonstrated the potential of these materials. This report will highlight the major steps in the development process on the way to technology readiness for SMC using the example of the Volkswagen Atlas Liftgate. Over the 36-month period of the project, the work focused on three R&D areas: material development, design and simulation, and development of the manufacturing process. Material selection included alternative fibers and resin systems, and accounted for material availability, properties, and cost-efficiency. The work undertaken in the field of design and simulation has pushed the envelope of short fiber reinforced thermoset molding compound process simulation. Design iterations were virtually tested, while the final design was used to validate the simulation software against physical parts. Manufacturing development used cutting-edge technology, while experts along the supply chain were working together to ensure the best possible results. In the final stage of the project, liftgates were molded, trimmed, bonded, painted and assembled before exhaustive testing. The result is an e-coat (electrophoretic dip coating) capable Class-A SMC liftgate, which is ready for high-volume production, and can be used as a technology demonstrator. The prototypes manufactured in the scope of this work have exhibited a mass reduction for the Volkswagen Atlas liftgate of up to 35% compared to the series production steel version, without a degradation of the functionalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Innovation in the Circularity of EV Lithium-Ion Batteries

This case study analysis highlights the role of innovations in EV battery design (cells, modules, and packs), reverse supply chain, and recycling processes in yielding value for the economics of recycling (and have the largest impact on the circularity of LIBs). Part of the assessment of value will be a semi-quantitative evaluation of the value of resilience in the rapidly evolving LIB market – i.e., there are a variety of risks that recyclers would face in making a financial commitment to a recycling facility including; the possibility that batteries would not be collected in sufficient quantities, the market for key constituents (e.g., cobalt) might decrease because of changes in battery chemistry, battery manufacturers may not be willing to pay as much for recycled material, etc. The analysis would be semi-quantitative in that two simple models would be used to assess 1. material flows using a previously developed excel-based reverse supply chain flows model, and 2. A LIB recycling process material and energy balance cost model that will be used to qualitatively assess the cost impacts of process innovations and changes in feed streams. Both sets of models are highly speculative in that they rely on a multitude of assumptions and input values (e.g., EV adoption rates) that vary widely in the literature. Additionally, the initial process flow diagrams and equipment lists for the recycling cost model are based on the Argonne EverBatt model, which is still under development. However, in combination with a critical review of the literature, economic modeling can yield valuable insights into the role of innovation in the circularity of LIBs and high-technology (“energy relevant”) products in general.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

DOE OSTI2025

JGI Plant Transformation Workshop, May 20-21, 2025

Domestic biomass crops such as sorghum, switchgrass, Miscanthus, and poplar can provide United States industries with renewable feedstocks while also supporting low-input farming systems and strengthening supply chains for biofuels, biochemicals and biomaterials. The U.S. leads globally in biomass crop genomics, yet progress in engineering traits is constrained by slow, genotype-dependent transformation methods and lengthy Design-Build-Test-Learn (DBTL) cycles. At a May 2025 workshop, a panel of experts recommended establishing a DOE Plant Transformation Capability (PTC) to overcome these barriers. The PTC would unite two missions: advancing research to achieve genotype-independent, automated methods, and delivering scalable transformation services through a user-facility model. With expected gains of 10–100x in efficiency, including transformation and cost reduction, the PTC would accelerate the path from discovery to engineered plants, expand community access and training, and support downstream applications and workflows including field trials and regulatory navigation. By enabling rapid and predictable crop engineering, the PTC would strengthen U.S. supply chains, enhance industrial competitiveness, and ensure that DOE’s genomic investments deliver national impact.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Diesel Fuel Consumption in Prominent U.S. Open-Pit Mines: Site-Level Estimates

This report presents a comprehensive framework for estimating diesel fuel consumption and prices at open-pit mines in the United States. The framework includes transparent methods for calculating site-level diesel energy use when direct reporting is unavailable, and a structured confidence evaluation for each method. The framework is demonstrated to estimate current diesel consumption at 21 open-pit mines in the United States. Initial findings support ongoing efforts to strengthen the competitiveness and security of the U.S. industrial base by supporting data-driven supply chain analysis and decision-making, improved transparency in mining sector energy use, and targeted deployment of energy innovation and cost-reduction strategies. Future updates to the dataset—coupled with expanded data transparency and method validation—will help ensure that the findings remain relevant as the sector continues to evolve.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy, greenhouse gas, and water life cycle analysis of synthetic graphite anode production in the United States

This study presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis of potential synthetic graphite battery anode material (BAM) production in the U.S. based on industrial-scale data. The analysis focuses on three impacts: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, total energy use, and water consumption. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of variation in process parameters and energy sources used for synthetic graphite BAM production on its life cycle GHG emissions. A detailed supply chain analysis of graphite BAM in the U.S. was also undertaken, along with a study of its associated GHG emissions. The results show GHG emissions of 29.7 kg CO 2 -eq. per kg BAM, total energy use of 580 MJ kg −1 BAM, and water consumption of 121 L kg −1 BAM for the baseline condition. The graphitization step is a major process hotspot, contributing to over 74% of all impacts. This is attributed to the energy and material input requirements for this step, particularly through the use of crucibles. Across the entire synthetic graphite production process, electricity is the primary contributor, followed by crucibles used in graphite block production, and then calcined petroleum coke. Sensitivity analyses indicate that improvement in micronization yield, reuse of crucibles, and use of low-carbon nuclear energy can significantly reduce GHG emissions of potential domestic graphite production (by ∼70%). Supply chain analysis identified major graphite BAM sources in the U.S. and showed that the U.S. has a competitive advantage in domestic production of synthetic graphite BAM in terms of reduced life cycle GHG emissions compared to present-day imported sources (by ∼20%).

Battery anode↗

DOE OSTI2022

A review study of rare Earth, Cobalt, Lithium, and Manganese in Coal-based sources and process development for their recovery

The world’s majority predominantly relies on foreign sources for supplying critical minerals. This renders the countries susceptible to supply chain disruption and urges them to develop alternative sources to compete in technological advancements. Among many proven newly identified sources, coal and coal-based materials present their opportunities. Due to the complex structure of coal, many mineral forms can be found in coal-related sources, including critical element-containing minerals. Among the fifty critical elements and minerals defined by the USGS, the rare earth elements, cobalt, lithium, and manganese, are particularly significant as they have enormous importance in high-technology product development. These critical metals can be found in high concentrations in coal-derived sources, such as coal refuse, coal combustion products, and coal acid mine drainage, and be recovered through various separation techniques. Further, this study aims to advance the understanding of these elements' extraction and commercial potential from coal and coal-related sources and help address the world's challenges in the critical mineral supply chain. The concentrations and occurrences of these four commodities in coal-related sources were first reviewed. Later, their recovery processes were discussed, and a conceptual process flowsheet was proposed to selectively recover the rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and manganese from coal-based sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emissions and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2 degrees C (1); however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments (2), increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date - the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) - designed to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns (3). IRA's scope and complexity make modeling important to understand impacts on emissions and energy systems. We leverage results from nine independent, state-of-the-art models to examine potential implications of key IRA provisions, showing economy-wide emissions reductions between 43 and 48% below 2005 levels by 2035.

electricity↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design Readiness And Maturity Assessment (DRAMA) Tool for Advanced Reactors

Abstract – This research is developing a formal, repeatable method to assess the readiness and maturity of an advanced nuclear reactor design for licensing and deployment. This design readiness and maturity assessment (DRAMA) tool will be capable of determining the readiness of the design and of all parties needed to bring a particular advanced reactor design to fruition. Beneficiaries and stakeholders include the design team, research organizations (required to collect needed data and develop design tools), standards organizations, research facilities to support gathering of needed data, supply chain and construction organizations, and everyone responsible for legal and regulatory infrastructure (including defining import-export requirements). Recent experience has shown that even the most experienced engineering and construction organizations, with decades of experience in the nuclear power business, have had significant challenges in bringing designs to completion, licensing the designs, and constructing new plants. For new entries into the field, simply understanding the unique environmental and regulatory requirements have been daunting. A significant part of the challenge is that new entries into the market do not know what they don't know. This tool will provide design teams a better understanding of their readiness to proceed to licensing (and other steps in the process), while at the same time providing a valuable metric for other interested organizations, such as funding agencies, national regulators, and international markets. The DRAMA tool will provide an assessment of the likelihood of successfully completing licensing and deployment and will also create the capability to assess the ability of regulatory infrastructure and the supply chain to support the deployment of any design or class of designs. It will also help prioritize research and policy efforts to improve the likelihood of deployment of the next generation of advanced reactors.

Arndt, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2023

Challenges and Prospects of Sodium‐Ion and Potassium‐Ion Batteries for Mass Production

The exponential growth of the lithium‐ion (LIB) market is causing a significant disparity between the supply chain and demand for its resources. In this regard, sodium‐ion and potassium‐ion batteries are promising alternatives to LIBs due to their low cost. However, the larger sizes of Na + and K + ions create challenges that prevent them from achieving energy densities comparable to LIBs while maintaining an acceptable cycle life. Here, in this perspective, the aim is to evaluate the status of Na‐ion and K‐ion batteries and the challenges associated with them on both fundamental and commercial levels. The focus is on the structural instability arising from phase transitions during cycling, intricate chemical degradation processes, and potential avenues for enhancing their performance with a specific goal of improving their viability for grid‐scale energy storage. Materials production and abundance limitations for the chemistries of the state‐of‐the‐art materials and account for critical parameters from both the perspective of researchers and investors are analyzed. This analysis aims to provide insights into the strategic trade‐offs required to effectively implement the technology in real‐world applications, such as grid‐scale storage and other areas. Furthermore, the utilization of metals with low or no supply‐chain problems as an important aspect of these trade‐offs is considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimization and Comparison of Modern Offshore Wind Turbine Generators Using GeneratorSE 2.0

As the offshore wind industry keeps growing at a rapid pace, developers are bracing themselves for a huge demand in critical rare earth metals which will threaten an already vulnerable supply chain. The wind energy industry is addressing this problem by investing in modern generator technologies that employ magnets with reduced rare earth content and high-field magnets enabled by rare-earth-free superconductors. In this paper we introduce the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's newly advanced GeneratorSE 2.0, which is a design and optimization tool that was developed to investigate the feasibility of such modern generators. Two direct-drive generator topologies with different magnet materials and mounting arrangements are investigated: an outer-rotor, V-shaped interior permanent magnet generator, and an inner-rotor normally conducting armature, paired with a low-temperature superconducting field with race-track coils. These technologies were evaluated for a range of power ratings between 15 and 25 MW, which represent the next generation of offshore wind turbines for both fixed-bottom and floating applications. The analyses indicate a new trend favoring the low-temperature superconducting technology for the direct-drive system.

direct-drive generators↗

NASA NTRS2018

Vision 2040: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Materials and Systems

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a diverse team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This report describes the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); identified gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations) which constitutes a community consensus document as it is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: 1) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), 2) community-wide survey, and 3) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per KE) consisting on average of 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. The study envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems. Although the vision focused on aeronautics and space applications, it is believed that other engineering communities (e.g., automotive, biomedical, etc.) can benefit as well from the proposed framework with only minor modifications. Finally, it is TTT's hope and desire that this vision provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

multi-scale modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Mechanical Recycling on Carbon Fiber-Based Hybrid Composites

Carbon fiber (CF) reinforced composites are high-performing, highly utilized material systems historically used in aerospace. As the cost of CF decreases, other industries, such as automotive and energy generation, seek to adopt CF composites into their applications. A sudden increase in CF demand may create supply chain issues if the adoption happens without scaling up of the CF production. A solution for reducing the reliance on CF is to substitute some portion of the CF content with another fiber type without significantly reducing the material properties. When multiple reinforcing fillers are introduced into a composite system, the materials system is often referred to as a hybrid composite and in this case a CF-based hybrid composite. To further relieve reliance on CF and with sustainable manufacturing becoming more prominent in industry, mechanical recycling can be employed to replace all or a percentage of the virgin material content. Utilizing recycled content in place of virgin content will further aid in reducing the reliance on virgin CF and decrease overall material costs. Here, the effects of utilizing mechanically recycled feedstocks on the mechanical properties of injection molded samples are explored to understand the feasibility of re-manufacturing recycled CF-based hybrid composites. By determining the mechanical properties and mechanisms in which the properties change through varying recycled content, the assessment of how the material will perform in other manufacturing processes can be inferred. As a result, industry will gain better insight into utilizing mechanically recycled feedstocks to reduce their reliance on the CF supply chain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Potential Cost Reduction in New Nuclear Deployments Based on Recent AP1000 Experience

The completion of Vogtle Units 3 and 4, despite significant cost and schedule overruns, a major bankruptcy, and a pandemic, demonstrates that the U.S. nuclear industry can still develop new supply chains, train a highly skilled workforce, and build large nuclear power plants. Vogtle, being a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant, faced overruns, but FOAK overruns can decrease with more deployments through a combination of design standardization and modularization, transferring and implementing lessons learned between consecutive projects, and innovation. This report quantifies the potential cost and schedule reductions in future AP1000 plants in the US and identifies the barriers in achieving those reductions. It starts with a summary and analysis of the cost and construction timeline data for AP1000 plants that started construction in the United States (Vogtle) and China. Motivated by the steep schedule reductions from the first to second series of AP1000 plants in China, a cost reduction model was developed to quantify potential reductions for future AP1000 builds in the US. Results show that within about 3 more builds, AP1000s can become economically attractive in large markets in the U.S., without leveraging the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or Production Tax Credit (PTC), and much sooner if these tax credits are available. Importantly the financial risks for future AP1000 builds in the US might be much smaller than observed in the FOAK plants. The study also identifies various barriers for future builds including the availability of a supply chain and a skilled workforce, and emphasizes the importance of making investments to gather and implement lessons learned between consecutive projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty of Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Decision Making for Operations and Maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant

This paper summarizes research that integrates condition monitoring and prognostics with decision making for nuclear power plant operations and maintenance. As part of this research, we have developed an online asset management tool to help reduce life-cycle maintenance and repair costs. Using the latest advancements in condition monitoring, supply chain analytics, and deep reinforcement learning, we have created a predictive maintenance tool that can optimize the maintenance and spare-part management of a repairable nuclear system. To demonstrate these methods, preliminary studies were conducted on a simple, representative maintenance system undergoing a stochastic degradation process that requires repairs or replacement to continue operation. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we were able to reduce maintenance spending by approximately 50% compared to optimized, time-based maintenance strategies. Not only does the decision maker reduce the average life-cycle costs, it also minimizes the chance of high cost scenarios, lowering the variance of the expected cost distributions, and reducing overall financial risk. Furthermore, this work also studies the ability of the decision maker to handle various levels of noise from observation uncertainty. By introducing uncertainty into the decision-making process, we have quantified the robustness and resiliency of the decision maker, as well as identified necessary levels of observability to demonstrate cost effectiveness.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA

Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation energy landscape, providing a practical alternative to petroleum fuels for a growing number of applications. EV sales grew 55x in the past decade (2014-2024) and 6x since 2020, driven by technological progress enabled by policies to reduce transportation emissions as well as industrial plans motivated by strategic value of EVs for global competitiveness, jobs and geopolitics. In 2024, 22% of passenger cars sold globally were EVs and opportunities for EVs beyond on-road applications are growing, including solutions to electrify off-road vehicles, maritime and aviation. This Review updates and expands our 2020 assessment of the scientific literature and describes the current status and future projections of EV markets, charging infrastructures, vehicle-grid integration and supply chains in the USA. EV is the lowest-emission motorized on-road transportation option, with life-cycle emissions decreasing as electricity emissions continue to decrease. Charging infrastructure grew in line with EV adoption but providing ubiquitous reliable and convenient charging remains a challenge. EVs are reducing electricity costs in several US markets and coordinated EV charging can improve grid resilience and reduce electricity costs for all consumers. The current trajectory of technology improvement and industrial investments points to continued acceleration of EVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗