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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Kronecker-structured covariance models for multiway data

Many applications produce multiway data of exceedingly high dimension. Modeling such multi-way data is important in multichannel signal and video processing where sensors produce multi-indexed data, e.g. over spatial, frequency, and temporal dimensions. We will address the challenges of covariance representation of multiway data and review some of the progress in statistical modeling of multiway covariance over the past two decades, focusing on tensor-valued covariance models and their inference. We will illustrate through a space weather application: predicting the evolution of solar active regions over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1979

Premixing quality and flame stability: A theoretical and experimental study

Models for predicting flame ignition and blowout in a combustor primary zone are presented. A correlation for the blowoff velocity of premixed turbulent flames is developed using the basic quantities of turbulent flow, and the laminar flame speed. A statistical model employing a Monte Carlo calculation procedure is developed to account for nonuniformities in a combustor primary zone. An overall kinetic rate equation is used to describe the fuel oxidation process. The model is used to predict the lean ignition and blow out limits of premixed turbulent flames; the effects of mixture nonuniformity on the lean ignition limit are explored using an assumed distribution of fuel-air ratios. Data on the effects of variations in inlet temperature, reference velocity and mixture uniformity on the lean ignition and blowout limits of gaseous propane-air flames are presented.

Radhakrishnan, K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Putting Priors in Mixture Density Mercer Kernels

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly infinite dimensional feature space. We describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using predefined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can en- code prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains template for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic- algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code. The results show that the Mixture Density Mercer-Kernel described here outperforms tree-based classification in distinguishing high-redshift galaxies from low- redshift galaxies by approximately 16% on test data, bagged trees by approximately 7%, and bagged trees built on a much larger sample of data by approximately 2%.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Adaptive Filtering Using Recurrent Neural Networks

A method for adaptive (or, optionally, nonadaptive) filtering has been developed for estimating the states of complex process systems (e.g., chemical plants, factories, or manufacturing processes at some level of abstraction) from time series of measurements of system inputs and outputs. The method is based partly on the fundamental principles of the Kalman filter and partly on the use of recurrent neural networks. The standard Kalman filter involves an assumption of linearity of the mathematical model used to describe a process system. The extended Kalman filter accommodates a nonlinear process model but still requires linearization about the state estimate. Both the standard and extended Kalman filters involve the often unrealistic assumption that process and measurement noise are zero-mean, Gaussian, and white. In contrast, the present method does not involve any assumptions of linearity of process models or of the nature of process noise; on the contrary, few (if any) assumptions are made about process models, noise models, or the parameters of such models. In this regard, the method can be characterized as one of nonlinear, nonparametric filtering. The method exploits the unique ability of neural networks to approximate nonlinear functions. In a given case, the process model is limited mainly by limitations of the approximation ability of the neural networks chosen for that case. Moreover, despite the lack of assumptions regarding process noise, the method yields minimum- variance filters. In that they do not require statistical models of noise, the neural- network-based state filters of this method are comparable to conventional nonlinear least-squares estimators.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simple Building Calculator

Whole building energy modeling is a powerful tool for analyzing energy use in buildings. For large buildings benefits of modeling services can easily be quantified due to the short payback period of the implemented measures. For small buildings, the upfront costs of developing robust energy models often deter building owners from investing in energy modeling services. To address this shortcoming, a ”Simple Building Calculator” (SBC) was developed. SBC uses pre-simulated results of a range of common measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. It combines whole building simulation results with statistical modeling techniques to predict energy impact of measures very quickly. In this paper we present the modeling methodology used to develop the data supporting SBC.

Building Energy Simulation, commercial building, E↗
NASA NTRS1997

Modeling the effects of exercise during 100% oxygen prebreathe on the risk of hypobaric decompression sickness

BACKGROUND: Several previous studies indicated that exercise during prebreathe with 100% O2 decreased the incidence of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS). We report a meta-analysis of these investigations combined with a new study in our laboratory to develop a statistical model as a predictive tool for DCS. HYPOTHESIS: Exercise during prebreathe increases N2 elimination in a theoretical 360-min half-time compartment decreasing the incidence of DCS. METHODS: A dose-response probability tissue ratio (TR) model with 95% confidence limits was created for two groups, prebreathe with exercise (n = 113) and resting prebreathe (n = 113), using nonlinear regression analysis with maximum likelihood optimization. RESULTS: The model predicted that prebreathe exercise would reduce the residual N2 in a 360-min half-time compartment to a level analogous to that in a 180-min compartment. This finding supported the hypothesis. The incidence of DCS for the exercise prebreathe group was significantly decreased (Chi-Square = 17.1, p < 0.0001) from the resting prebreathe group. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that exercise during prebreathe increases tissue perfusion and N2 elimination approximately 2-fold and markedly lowers the risk of DCS. Based on the model, the prebreathe duration may be reduced from 240 min to a predicted 91 min for the protocol in our study, but this remains to be verified. The model provides a useful planning tool to develop and test appropriate prebreathe exercise protocols and to predict DCS risks for astronauts.

NASA Program Environmental Health↗
NASA NTRS2017

Flight Path Control Analysis for Parker Solar Probe

An unprecedented NASA mission to study the Sun, known as Parker Solar Probe (PSP), is under development. The primary objective of the PSP mission is to gather new data within 10 solar radii of the Sun’s center. The purpose of this paper is to review the statistical analysis of trajectory correction maneuvers (TCMs) for PSP’s baseline trajectory. The baseline mission includes a total of 42 TCMs that will be accomplished with a monopropellant propulsion system that consists of twelve 4.4 N thrusters. Assuming current navigation models, statistical analyses for each reference trajectory during the 20-day launch period result in a total V99 of less than 100 m/s.

Mottinger, Neil↗
NASA NTRS1970

Introductory comments on the USGS geographic applications program

The third phase of remote sensing technologies and potentials applied to the operations of the U.S. Geological Survey is introduced. Remote sensing data with multidisciplinary spatial data from traditional sources is combined with geographic theory and techniques of environmental modeling. These combined imputs are subject to four sequential activities that involve: (1) thermatic mapping of land use and environmental factors; (2) the dynamics of change detection; (3) environmental surveillance to identify sudden changes and general trends; and (4) preparation of statistical model and analytical reports. Geography program functions, products, clients, and goals are presented in graphical form, along with aircraft photo missions, geography test sites, and FY-70.

Gerlach, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Determination of stability derivatives from flight data using a Newton-Raphson minimization technique

A modified Newton-Raphson or quasilinearization minimization technique for determining stability derivatives from flight data was developed and compared with simple-equations, analog-matching, least-squares, and Shinbrot methods of analysis. For the data analyzed, the solutions computed by using the estimates obtained from the Newton-Raphson technique fit the data and determined coefficients adequately. A further modification to include a priori information was found to be useful. A model statistically similar to the flight data was analyzed using the same methods (excluding analog matching), and the Newton-Raphson technique was found to yield superior estimates. An approximate Cramer-Rao bound was compared with the error covariance matrix of the model and was found to provide information about the reliability of the individual estimates obtained. The technique was successfully applied to data obtained from a light airplane, a large supersonic airplane, and a lifting body vehicle. It was shown that the reliability of the estimates of a given coefficient obtained from these vehicles depends upon the data analyzed.

Iliff, K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nepheline Crystallization Studies and the Structural Integrity of the Residual (SIR) - FY 2022 Study Glasses

In FY22 a set of 367 HLW glasses with compositions representative of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) processing region were aggregated and analyzed with the Structural Integrity of the Residual (SIR) model developed by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). An additional 12 glasses targeting 27 – 37 wt % alumina (in glass) and at waste loadings up to ~70 wt % were fabricated and added to the database. Collectively, this data set was analyzed with regression statistics and partitioning functions to reveal correlations between boron release and the chemical composition. FY22 results indicate that the SIR theoretical alkali-silicate precipitation term, Al 2 O 3 and B 2 O 3 concentration, and SIR computed non-bridging oxygen are significant predictors of chemical durability. A statistical model using the SIR parameters was shown to have greater overall accuracy than the nepheline discriminator model while maintaining false predictions of pour durability below 1%. In FY23, we will continue this work to focus on refining the SIR with glass compositions that challenge the SIR correlation terms, namely the theoretical crystalline precipitation and non-bridging oxygen terms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sheaves as a Framework for Understanding and Interpreting Model Fit

As data grows in size and complexity, finding frameworks which aid in interpretation and analysis has become critical. This is particularly true when data comes from complex systems where extensive structure is available, but must be drawn from peripheral sources. In this paper we argue that in such situations, sheaves can provide a natural framework to analyze how well a statistical model fits at the local level (that is, on subsets of related datapoints) vs the global level (on all the data). The sheaf-based approach that we propose is suitably general enough to be useful in a range of applications, from analyzing sensor networks to understanding the feature space of a deep learning model.

Kvinge, Henry J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

Focal Area: Focal Area 3: Insight gleaned from complex simulated data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Visualizing characteristics of ocean data collected during the Shuttle Imaging Radar-B experiment

Topographic measurements of sea surface elevation collected by the Surface Contour Radar (SCR) during NASA's Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-B) experiment are plotted as three dimensional surface plots to observe wave height variance along the track of a P-3 aircraft. Ocean wave spectra were computed from rotating altimeter measurements acquired by the Radar Ocean Wave Spectrometer (ROWS). Fourier power spectra computed from SIR-B synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the ocean are compared to ROWS surface wave spectra. Fourier inversion of SAR spectra, after subtraction of spectral noise and modeling of wave height modulation, yields topography similar to direct measurements made by SCR. Visual perspectives on the SCR and SAR ocean data are compared. Threshold distinctions between surface elevation and texture modulations of SAR data are considered within the context of a dynamic statistical model of rough surface scattering. The result of these endeavors is insight as to the physical mechanism governing the imaging of ocean waves with SAR.

Tilley, David G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate prediction of oxygen vacancy concentration with disordered A-site cations in high-entropy perovskite oxides

Abstract Entropic stabilized ABO 3 perovskite oxides promise many applications, including the two-step solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production. Using binary and quaternary A-site mixed {A}FeO 3 as a model system, we reveal that as more cation types, especially above four, are mixed on the A-site, the cell lattice becomes more cubic-like but the local Fe–O octahedrons are more distorted. By comparing four different Density Functional Theory-informed statistical models with experiments, we show that the oxygen vacancy formation energies ( $${E}_{V}^{f}$$ E V f ) distribution and the vacancy interactions must be considered to predict the oxygen non-stoichiometry ( δ ) accurately. For STCH applications, the $${E}_{V}^{f}$$ E V f distribution, including both the average and the spread, can be optimized jointly to improve Δ δ (difference of δ between the two-step conditions) in some hydrogen production levels. This model can be used to predict the range of water splitting that can be thermodynamically improved by mixing cations in {A}FeO 3 perovskites.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

User Selection Criteria of Airspace Designs in Flexible Airspace Management

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Lee, Hwasoo E.↗