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NASA NTRS2018

Spectral Response and Effective Area Functions of the Hitomi Imaging Instruments

We describe the tools and the underlying methods and principles for generating the spectral response functions for the four imaging instruments that were flown on the Hitomi x-ray astronomy satellite [Soft X-ray Spectrometer, or SXS; Soft X-ray Imager, or SXI, and two Hard X-ray Imagers, or HXI]. In essence, the spectral response function is a temporally and spatially averaged effective area and line-spread-function. For model-fittingx-ray spectra from an instrument, the spectral response function encapsulates the end-to-end physics of the entire system from telescope to detector, and also includes satellite attitude drift, exposure corrections, and in the case of the HXIs, drift in the telescope/detector alignment system. Accuracy in the construction of the spectral response functions is, therefore, critical to maximize the science return from the data.

Yaqoob, Tahir↗

DOE OSTI2024

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

A wideband channel model for land mobile satellite systems

A wideband channel model for Land Mobile Satellite (LMS) services is presented which characterizes the time-varying transmission channel between a satellite and a mobile user terminal. The channel model statistic parameters are the results of fitting procedures to measured data. The data used for fitting have a time resolution of 33 ns corresponding to a bandwidth of 30 MHz. Thus, the model is capable to characterize the channel behaviour for a wide range of services e.g., voice transmission, digital audio broadcasting (DAB), and spread spectrum modulation schemes. The model is presented for different environments and scenarios. The model is derived for a quasi-mobile user with hand-held terminal being in two different environments: rural and urban. The parameters needed for the description are (a) the number of echoes, (b) the distribution of the echo power, and (c) the distribution of the echo delay. It is shown that the direct path follows a Rician distribution whereas the reflected paths are Rayleigh/lognormal distributed. The parameters are given for an elevation angle of 25 deg.

Jahn, Axel↗

NASA NTRS2021

Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation models (GCMs) could improve predictability of observed future precipitation changes. The aims here are (1) to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and (2) to determine the roles of local and regional emissions. For (1), we study the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project experiments. We find that the precipitation response to changes in black carbon is highly uncertain with a large intermodel spread due in part to model differences in simulating changes in cloud vertical profiles. Effects from sulfate are clearer; increased sulfate reduces Indian precipitation, a consistency through all of the models studied here. For (2), we study bespoke simulations, with reduced Chinese and/or Indian emissions in three GCMs. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ∼20 %) is found only when both countries' sulfur emissions are regulated, which has been driven in large part by dynamic shifts in the location of convective regions in India. These changes have the potential to restore a portion of the precipitation losses induced by sulfate forcing over the last few decades.

Indian monsoons↗

DOE OSTI2014

Ex-Vessel Core Melt Modeling Comparison between MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH and MELCOR 2.1

System-level code analyses by both United States and international researchers predict major core melting, bottom head failure, and corium-concrete interaction for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1). Although system codes such as MELCOR and MAAP are capable of capturing a wide range of accident phenomena, they currently do not contain detailed models for evaluating some ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes containing more detailed modeling are available for melt spreading such as MELTSPREAD as well as long-term molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) and debris coolability such as CORQUENCH. In a preceding study, Enhanced Ex-Vessel Analysis for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1: Melt Spreading and Core-Concrete Interaction Analyses with MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH, the MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH codes predicted the 1F1 core melt readily cooled in contrast to predictions by MELCOR. The user community has taken notice and is in the process of updating their systems codes; specifically MAAP and MELCOR, to improve and reduce conservatism in their ex-vessel core melt models. This report investigates why the MELCOR v2.1 code, compared to the MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH 3.03 codes, yield differing predictions of ex-vessel melt progression. To accomplish this, the differences in the treatment of the ex-vessel melt with respect to melt spreading and long-term coolability are examined. The differences in modeling approaches are summarized, and a comparison of example code predictions is provided.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectra for gas-phase diagnostics

We present a hybrid frequency- and time-domain solution, applicable to the case of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS), for gas-phase diagnostics. A solution has been derived based on both physical arguments and four-wave mixing equations for picosecond CARS, with pulse durations that are comparable to the dephasing time scale for gas-phase Raman coherence—a regime where commonly employed solutions for impulsive (femtosecond) or cw (nanosecond) pump/Stokes forcing are not strictly valid. We present the ps-CARS spectrum in the form of incoherent sums of CARS intensity spectra, calculated from the fundamental solution for impulsive pump/Stokes Raman preparation. The solution was examined for temperatures from 1000–3000 K, for four plausible experimental configurations, with laser pulse durations of 50–150 ps, and probe pulse delays from −20 to 240 ps. Approximations based on cw and impulsive pump/Stokes preparation to fit picosecond CARS spectra at atmospheric pressure were examined and the relative thermometric accuracy and computational cost of these approximations were quantified for the case of a zero nonresonant CARS contribution, and a nonresonant susceptibility equal to 10% of the Raman-resonant value at the N 2 bandhead. The nanosecond CARS approximation can result in large fitting errors when the probe pulse time delay is less than the probe pulse duration. Errors as large as 10–20% are observed in the fit temperatures for a zero picosecond probe pulse delay, when the nonresonant background is neglected, largely due to an inability of the time-independent cw model to capture transient frequency spread dephasing effects at the Q -branch bandhead. The inclusion of a nonresonant background results in 40–60% thermometry errors with a nanosecond model at a zero-probe delay. Time-dependent impulsive calculations used for femtosecond CARS better approximate the structure of the N 2 bandhead, reducing temperature fitting errors to 5–10% at a short probe pulse delay. The impulsive approximation results in errors up to 10% at intermediate probe pulse delays, where the coherence of the pump and probe pulses leads to multiple terms in the picosecond CARS solution. Both approximations improve as the probe pulse delay exceeds the probe duration. The nanosecond approximation results in a 2–3% error, while the impulsive model results in differences of less than 1% in some cases. Fits to experimental data obtained using short, ∼60ps pulses at a zero probe time delay and longer 100 ps pulses at a substantial 200 ps delay are presented with accuracies of 1–3% in the fit temperature.

Kearney, Sean P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Topography Project Update 5/20 [Slides]

Problem/Goal: Earth System Models (ESMs) do not accurately predict fire spread. There are no effects from topography/vegetation heterogeneity below the model’s scale (100-200km). Use physics based models (FIRETEC and QUICFIRE) to produce an archive of correction factors for SPITFIRE (chosen ESM). This project will: Use datasets to create PDFs of slope & aspect, vegetation distribution; Create joint distribution and sample to make new domain; Run FIRETEC & QUICFIRE on created domain, record output (area burned, intensity, etc.); and Use output to create PDF of correction factors for SPITFIRE runs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Fluid Management of and Flame Spread Across Liquid Pools

The goal of our research on flame spread across pools of liquid fuel remains the quantitative identification of the mechanisms that control the rate and nature of flame spread when the initial temperature of the liquid pool is below the fuel's flash point temperature. As described in, four microgravity (mu-g) sounding rocket flights examined the effect of forced opposed airflow over a 2.5 cm deep x 2 cm wide x 30 cm long pool of 1-butanol. Among many unexpected findings, it was observed that the flame spread is much slower and steadier than in 1g where flame spread has a pulsating character. Our numerical model, restricted to two dimensions, had predicted faster, pulsating flame spread in mu-g. In a test designed to achieve a more 2-D experiment, our investigation of a shallow, wide pool (2 mm deep x 78 mm wide x 30 cm long) was unsuccessful in mu-g, due to an unexpectedly long time required to fill the tray. As such, the most recent Spread Across Liquids (SAL) sounding rocket experiment had two principal objectives: 1) determine if pulsating flame spread in deep fuel trays would occur under the conditions that a state-of-the-art computational combustion code and short-duration drop tower tests predict; and 2) determine if a long, rectangular, shallow fuel tray could achieve a visibly flat liquid surface across the whole tray without spillage in the mu-g time allotted. If the second objective was met, the shallow tray was to be ignited to determine the nature of flame spread in mu-g for this geometry. For the first time in the experiment series, two fuel trays - one deep (30 cm long x 2 cm wide x 25 mm deep) and one shallow (same length and width, but 2 mm deep)-- were flown. By doing two independent experiments in a single flight, a significant cost savings was realized. In parallel, the computational objective was to modify the code to improve agreement with earlier results. This last objective was achieved by modifying the fuel mass diffusivity and adding a parameter to correct for radiative and lateral heat loss.

Ross, H. D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effect of Wind Velocity on Flame Spread in Microgravity

A three-dimensional, time-dependent model is developed describing ignition and subsequent transition to flame spread over a thermally thin cellulosic sheet heated by external radiation in a microgravity environment. A low Mach number approximation to the Navier Stokes equations with global reaction rate equations describing combustion in the gas phase and the condensed phase is numerically solved. The effects of a slow external wind (1-20 cm/s) on flame transition are studied in an atmosphere of 35% oxygen concentration. The ignition is initiated at the center part of the sample by generating a line-shape flame along the width of the sample. The calculated results are compared with data obtained in the 10s drop tower. Numerical results exhibit flame quenching at a wind speed of 1.0 cm/s, two localized flames propagating upstream along the sample edges at 1.5 cm/s, a single line-shape flame front at 5.0 cm/s, three flames structure observed at 10.0 cm/s (consisting of a single line-shape flame propagating upstream and two localized flames propagating downstream along sample edges) and followed by two line-shape flames (one propagating upstream and another propagating downstream) at 20.0 cm/s. These observations qualitatively compare with experimental data. Three-dimensional visualization of the observed flame complex, fuel concentration contours, oxygen and reaction rate isosurfaces, convective and diffusive mass flux are used to obtain a detailed understanding of the controlling mechanism, Physical arguments based on lateral diffusive flux of oxygen, fuel depletion, oxygen shadow of the flame and heat release rate are constructed to explain the various observed flame shapes.

Prasad, Kuldeep↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potentially adaptive SARS-CoV-2 mutations discovered with novel spatiotemporal and explainable AI models

Abstract Background A mechanistic understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diligent tracking of ongoing mutagenesis are of key importance to plan robust strategies for confining its transmission. Large numbers of available sequences and their dates of transmission provide an unprecedented opportunity to analyze evolutionary adaptation in novel ways. Addition of high-resolution structural information can reveal the functional basis of these processes at the molecular level. Integrated systems biology-directed analyses of these data layers afford valuable insights to build a global understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results Here we identify globally distributed haplotypes from 15,789 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and model their success based on their duration, dispersal, and frequency in the host population. Our models identify mutations that are likely compensatory adaptive changes that allowed for rapid expansion of the virus. Functional predictions from structural analyses indicate that, contrary to previous reports, the Asp 614 Gly mutation in the spike glycoprotein (S) likely reduced transmission and the subsequent Pro 323 Leu mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase led to the precipitous spread of the virus. Our model also suggests that two mutations in the nsp13 helicase allowed for the adaptation of the virus to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Finally, our explainable artificial intelligence algorithm identified a mutational hotspot in the sequence of S that also displays a signature of positive selection and may have implications for tissue or cell-specific expression of the virus. Conclusions These results provide valuable insights for the development of drugs and surveillance strategies to combat the current and future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliable Measures of Spread in High Dimensional Latent Spaces

Understanding geometric properties of the latent spaces of natural language processing models allows the manipulation of these properties for improved performance on downstream tasks. One such property is the amount of data spread in a model’s latent space, or how fully the available latent space is being used. We demonstrate that the commonly used measures of data spread, average cosine similarity and a partition function min/max ratio I (V), do not provide reliable metrics to compare the use of latent space across data distributions. We propose and examine six alternative measures of data spread, all of which improve over these current metrics when applied to seven synthetic data distributions. Of our proposed measures, we recommend one principal component-based measure and one entropy-based measure that provide reliable, relative measures of spread and can be used to compare models of different sizes and dimensionalities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment

Abstract The persistent and growing spread in effective climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models necessitates rigorous evaluation of their cloud feedbacks. Here we evaluate several cloud feedback components simulated in 19 climate models against benchmark values determined via an expert synthesis of observational, theoretical, and high‐resolution modeling studies. We find that models with smallest feedback errors relative to these benchmark values generally have moderate total cloud feedbacks (0.4–0.6 W m −2 K −1 ) and ECS (3–4 K). Those with largest errors generally have total cloud feedback and ECS values that are too large or too small. Models tend to achieve large positive total cloud feedbacks by having several cloud feedback components that are systematically biased high rather than by having a single anomalously large component, and vice versa. In general, better simulation of mean‐state cloud properties leads to stronger but not necessarily better cloud feedbacks. The Python code base provided herein could be applied to developmental versions of models to assess cloud feedbacks and cloud errors and place them in the context of other models and of expert judgment in real‐time during model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-520: Four-Dimensional Dose Calculation Algorithm Considering Variations in Dose Distribution Induced by Sinusoidal One-Dimensional Motion Patterns

Purpose: To investigate quantitatively the variations in dose-distributions induced by motion by measurements and modeling. A four-dimensional (4D) motion model of dose distributions that accounts for different motion parameters was developed. Methods: Variations in dose distributions induced by sinusoidal phantom motion were measured using a multiple-diode-array-detector (MapCheck2). MapCheck2 was mounted on a mobile platform that moves with adjustable calibrated motion patterns in the superior-inferior direction. Various plans including open and intensity-modulated fields were used to irradiate MapCheck2. A motion model was developed to predict spatial and temporal variations in the dose-distributions and dependence on the motion parameters using pencil-beam spread-out superposition function. This model used the superposition of pencil-beams weighted with a probability function extracted from the motion trajectory. The model was verified with measured dose-distributions obtained from MapCheck2. Results: Dose-distribution varied considerably with motion where in the regions between isocenter and 50% isodose-line, dose decreased with increase of the motion amplitude. Dose levels increased with increase in the motion amplitude in the region beyond 50% isodose-line. When the range of motion (ROM=twice amplitude) was smaller than the field length both central axis dose and the 50% isodose-line did not change with variation of motion amplitude and remained equal to the dose of stationary phantom. As ROM became larger than the field length, the dose level decreased at central axis dose and 50% isodose-line. Motion frequency and phase did not affect the dose distributions which were delivered over an extended time longer than few motion cycles, however, they played an important role for doses delivered with high-dose-rates within one motion cycle . Conclusion: A 4D-dose motion model was developed to predict and correct variations in dose distributions induced by one-dimensional sinusoidal motion. This model was verified with measured dose-distributions and can be expanded to consider complicated patient motion patterns.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Geology and structure of Beta Regio, Venus - Results from Arecibo radar imaging

Arecibo radar images of a portion of the equatorial region of Venus provide the first high resolution (1.5- to 2.0-km) synoptic coverage of Beta Regio. Within this area, tessera, a complex deformed terrain, is identified as a major geologic unit with the largest region corresponding to a plateau on the east flank of the highland. Three models are proposed to explain the origin and evolution of Beta Regio and are identified as Mantle Plume/Passive Crust, Mantle Plume/Active Crust, and Mantle Plume/Crustal Spreading. The Mantle Plume/Passive Crust model appears to be the most consistent with the geology in this region and suggests that a plume disrupts a preexisting region of tessera.

Senske, D. A.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Congruity of genomic and epidemiological data in modelling of local cholera outbreaks

Cholera continues to be a global health threat. Understanding how cholera spreads between locations is fundamental to the rational, evidence-based design of intervention and control efforts. Traditionally, cholera transmission models have used cholera case-count data. More recently, whole-genome sequence data have qualitatively described cholera transmission. Integrating these data streams may provide much more accurate models of cholera spread; however, no systematic analyses have been performed so far to compare traditional case-count models to the phylodynamic models from genomic data for cholera transmission. Here, we use high-fidelity case-count and whole-genome sequencing data from the 1991 to 1998 cholera epidemic in Argentina to directly compare the epidemiological model parameters estimated from these two data sources. We find that phylodynamic methods applied to cholera genomics data provide comparable estimates that are in line with established methods. Our methodology represents a critical step in building a framework for integrating case-count and genomic data sources for cholera epidemiology and other bacterial pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spreading of thermonuclear flames on the neutron star in SAX J1808.4-3658: an observational tool

We analyse archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) proportional counter array (PCA) data of thermonuclear X-ray bursts from the 2002 outburst of the accreting millisecond pulsar SAX 51808.4-3658. We present evidence of a complex frequency modulation of oscillations during burst rise, and correlations among the time evolution of the oscillation frequency, amplitude, and the inferred burning region area. We discuss these findings in the context of a model, based on thermonuclear flame spreading on the neutron star surface, that can qualitatively explain these features. From our model, we infer that for the 2002 Oct. 15 thermonuclear burst, the ignition likely occurred in the mid-latitudes, the burning region took approx. 0.2 s to nearly encircle the equatorial region of the neutron star, and after that the lower amplitude oscillation originated from the remaining asymmetry of the burning front in the same hemisphere where the burst ignited. We emphasize that studies of the evolution of burst oscillation properties during burst rise can provide a powerful tool to understand thermonuclear flame spreading on neutron star surfaces under extreme physical conditions.

Bhattacharyya, Sudip↗

DOE OSTI2025

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗