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At least 505 records · Page 28

Oceanic Tidal Mixing As a Contributor to Milankovitch-scale Climate Change

We propose that changes in the magnitude of oceanic tidal mixing on long time scales is an important, but previously unrecognized, contributor to global climate change. it is well known that Earth's orbital and rotational state changes significantly on 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) year time scales, and that this influences the spatial and temporal pattern of incident radiation. It is widely supposed that climatic variations on these same time scales are, in large part, a response of the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system to this radiative forcing. Our proposal is that variations in the luni-solar tidal potential, induced by these same orbital and rotational variations, influences oceanic mixing and thus modulates meridional heat transport, by amounts which are competitive with the radiative forcing. There are some obvious differences between tidal potential and insolation. First is that the Sun and Moon both contribute to tides, whereas the radiation is entirely of solar origin. Second is that the Earth is transparent to gravity but opaque to radiation. Clipping associated with this opacity makes the radiation pattern temporal spectrum rather more complex than the tidal spectrum. A third point is that solar radiation directly delivers energy to Earth's surface whereas tidal mixing will only expedite lateral transport of heat in association with oceanic thermohaline circulation. The diurnal average insolation pattern is best parameterized via a Fourier series in time of year and Legendre polynomials in sine of latitude. Our present focus will be on the annual average terms. The Legendre degree n=0 term describes the global average insolation, and is nearly constant. The degree n=l term describes differences between northern and southern hemispheres, and the annual mean is zero. The degree n=2 term is the main contributor to the equator to pole variations, and varies with obliquity and orbital eccentricity, with the obliquity variation dominating. The lowest order decomposition of the tidal potential recognizes 3 constituents: semi-diurnal, diurnal, and long period, with solar and lunar contributions to each. Our present focus will be on long term variations in the mean square amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituent, with averaging over all the short period variations. For the solar tide that includes the day and year. For the lunar tide it includes the day, month, year, and the apsidal (8.85 year) and nodal (18.6 year) periods. We present calculations of the variations in radiative and tidal forcing for the past 3 million years. The two signals are quite similar. Both vary by approximately 1% of their respective mean values, are dominated by obliquity variations, and exhibit only secondary influence from orbital eccentricity.

Munk, Walter↗

Neural Network for Image-to-Image Control of Optical Tweezers

A method is discussed for using neural networks to control optical tweezers. Neural-net outputs are combined with scaling and tiling to generate 480 by 480-pixel control patterns for a spatial light modulator (SLM). The SLM can be combined in various ways with a microscope to create movable tweezers traps with controllable profiles. The neural nets are intended to respond to scattered light from carbon and silicon carbide nanotube sensors. The nanotube sensors are to be held by the traps for manipulation and calibration. Scaling and tiling allow the 100 by 100-pixel maximum resolution of the neural-net software to be applied in stages to exploit the full 480 by 480-pixel resolution of the SLM. One of these stages is intended to create sensitive null detectors for detecting variations in the scattered light from the nanotube sensors.

Decker, Arthur J.↗

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing of seasonal freeze-thaw processes in theterrestrial high l atitudes : relationships with land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I)carbon cycle↗

Spaceborne Microwave Remote Sensing of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Processes in the Terrestrial High Latitudes: Relationships with Land-Atmosphere CO2 exchange

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

net primary products↗

Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Barrett, K.↗

Coordinating an Autonomous Earth-Observing Sensorweb

A system of software has been developed to coordinate the operation of an autonomous Earth-observing sensorweb. Sensorwebs are collections of sensor units scattered over large regions to gather data on spatial and temporal patterns of physical, chemical, or biological phenomena in those regions. Each sensor unit is a node in a data-gathering/ data-communication network that spans a region of interest. In this case, the region is the entire Earth, and the sensorweb includes multiple terrestrial and spaceborne sensor units. In addition to acquiring data for scientific study, the sensorweb is required to give timely notice of volcanic eruptions, floods, and other hazardous natural events. In keeping with the inherently modular nature of the sensory, communication, and data-processing hardware, the software features a flexible, modular architecture that facilitates expansion of the network, customization of conditions that trigger alarms of hazardous natural events, and customization of responses to alarms. The soft8 NASA Tech Briefs, July 2006 ware facilitates access to multiple sources of data on an event of scientific interest, enables coordinated use of multiple sensors in rapid reaction to detection of an event, and facilitates the tracking of spacecraft operations, including tracking of the acquisition, processing, and downlinking of requested data.

Sherwood, Robert↗

Chlorophyll-a Algorithms for Oligotrophic Oceans: A Novel Approach Based on Three-Band Reflectance Difference

A new empirical algorithm is proposed to estimate surface chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl) in the global ocean for Chl less than or equal to 0.25 milligrams per cubic meters (approximately 77% of the global ocean area). The algorithm is based on a color index (CI), defined as the difference between remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs), sr(sup -1) in the green and a reference formed linearly between R(sub rs) in the blue and red. For low Chl waters, in situ data showed a tighter (and therefore better) relationship between CI and Chl than between traditional band-ratios and Chl, which was further validated using global data collected concurrently by ship-borne and SeaWiFS satellite instruments. Model simulations showed that for low Chl waters, compared with the band-ratio algorithm, the CI-based algorithm (CIA) was more tolerant to changes in chlorophyll-specific backscattering coefficient, and performed similarly for different relative contributions of non-phytoplankton absorption. Simulations using existing atmospheric correction approaches further demonstrated that the CIA was much less sensitive than band-ratio algorithms to various errors induced by instrument noise and imperfect atmospheric correction (including sun glint and whitecap corrections). Image and time-series analyses of SeaWiFS and MODIS/Aqua data also showed improved performance in terms of reduced image noise, more coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and consistency between the two sensors. The reduction in noise and other errors is particularly useful to improve the detection of various ocean features such as eddies. Preliminary tests over MERIS and CZCS data indicate that the new approach should be generally applicable to all existing and future ocean color instruments.

Hu, Chuanmin↗

A New Retrieval Algorithm for OMI NO2: Tropospheric Results and Comparisons with Measurements and Models

Nitrogen oxides (NOx =NO+NO2) are important atmospheric trace constituents that impact tropospheric air pollution chemistry and air quality. We have developed a new NASA algorithm for the retrieval of stratospheric and tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities using measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite. The new products rely on an improved approach to stratospheric NO2 column estimation and stratosphere-troposphere separation and a new monthly NO2 climatology based on the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemistry-transport model. The retrieval does not rely on daily model profiles, minimizing the influence of a priori information. We evaluate the retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns using surface in situ (e.g., AQS/EPA), ground-based (e.g., DOAS), and airborne measurements (e.g., DISCOVER-AQ). The new, improved OMI tropospheric NO2 product is available at high spatial resolution for the years 200S-present. We believe that this product is valuable for the evaluation of chemistry-transport models, examining the spatial and temporal patterns of NOx emissions, constraining top-down NOx inventories, and for the estimation of NOx lifetimes.

Swartz, W. H.↗

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Clouds Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched aboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties have enabled over twelve years of continuous observations of cloud properties from Terra and over nine years from Aqua. The archived products from these algorithms include 1 km pixel-level (Level-2) and global gridded Level-3 products. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. Results include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties for both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as latitudinal distributions of cloud top pressure and cloud top temperature. MODIS finds the cloud fraction, as derived by the cloud mask, is nearly identical during the day and night, with only modest diurnal variation. Globally, the cloud fraction derived by the MODIS cloud mask is approx.67%, with somewhat more clouds over land during the afternoon and less clouds over ocean in the afternoon, with very little difference in global cloud cover between Terra and Aqua. Overall, cloud fraction over land is approx.55%, with a distinctive seasonal cycle, whereas the ocean cloudiness is much higher, around 72%, with much reduced seasonal variation. Cloud top pressure and temperature have distinct spatial and temporal patterns, and clearly reflect our understanding of the global cloud distribution. High clouds are especially prevalent over the northern hemisphere continents between 30 and 50 . Aqua and Terra have comparable zonal cloud top pressures, with Aqua having somewhat higher clouds (cloud top pressures lower by 100 hPa) over land due to afternoon deep convection. The coldest cloud tops (colder than 230 K) generally occur over Antarctica and the high clouds in the tropics (ITCZ and the deep convective clouds over the western tropical Pacific and Indian sub-continent).

King, Michael D.↗

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Morton, D. C.↗

Meningitis and Climate: From Science to Practice

Meningococcal meningitis is a climate sensitive infectious disease. The regional extent of the Meningitis Belt in Africa, where the majority of epidemics occur, was originally defined by Lapeysonnie in the 1960s. A combination of climatic and environmental conditions and biological and social factors have been associated to the spatial and temporal patterns of epidemics observed since the disease first emerged in West Africa over a century ago. However, there is still a lack of knowledge and data that would allow disentangling the relative effects of the diverse risk factors upon epidemics. The Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies Initiative (MERIT), a collaborative research-to-practice consortium, seeks to inform national and regional prevention and control strategies across the African Meningitis Belt through the provision of new data and tools that better determine risk factors. In particular MERIT seeks to consolidate a body of knowledge that provides evidence of the contribution of climatic and environmental factors to seasonal and year-to-year variations in meningococcal meningitis incidence at both district and national scales. Here we review recent research and practice seeking to provide useful information for the epidemic response strategy of National Ministries of Health in the Meningitis Belt of Africa. In particular the research and derived tools described in this paper have focused at "getting science into policy and practice" by engaging with practitioner communities under the umbrella of MERIT to ensure the relevance of their work to operational decision-making. We limit our focus to that of reactive vaccination for meningococcal meningitis. Important but external to our discussion is the development and implementation of the new conjugate vaccine, which specifically targets meningococcus A

Mineral dust↗

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗

Comparing Potential Recharge Estimates From Three Land Surface Models Across the Western US

Groundwater is a major source of water in the western US. However, there are limited recharge estimates available in this region due to the complexity of recharge processes and the challenge of direct observations. Land surface Models (LSMs) could be a valuable tool for estimating current recharge and projecting changes due to future climate change. In this study, simulations of three LSMs (Noah, Mosaic and VIC) obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) are used to estimate potential recharge in the western US Modeled recharge was compared with published recharge estimates for several aquifers in the region. Annual recharge to precipitation ratios across the study basins varied from 0.01-15% for Mosaic, 3.2-42% for Noah, and 6.7-31.8% for VIC simulations. Mosaic consistently underestimates recharge across all basins. Noah captures recharge reasonably well in wetter basins, but overestimates it in drier basins. VIC slightly overestimates recharge in drier basins and slightly underestimates it for wetter basins. While the average annual recharge values vary among the models, the models were consistent in identifying high and low recharge areas in the region. Models agree in seasonality of recharge occurring dominantly during the spring across the region. Overall, our results highlight that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating future recharge rates in data limited regions.

groundwater↗

Detection of Hail Storms in Radar Imagery Using Deep Learning

In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest weather phenomenon in the United States. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques and reduce the societal impacts associated with hail storms, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages radar imagery for automatic detection of hail storms. The technique is applied to radar imagery from 2011 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and achieved a precision of 0.848. Hail storms are primarily detected through the visual interpretation of radar imagery (Mrozet al., 2017). With radars providing data every two minutes, the detection of hail storms has become a big data task. As a result, scientists have turned to neural networks that employ computer vision to identify hail-bearing storms (Marzbanet al., 2001). In this study, we propose a deep Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet) to understand the spatial features and patterns of radar echoes for detecting hailstorms.

natural hazard↗

Managing Fire Risk During Drought: The Influence of Certification and El Nino on Fire-Driven Forest Conversion for Oil Palm in Southeast Asia

Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance isunclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009,forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident activefire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Nino and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Nino events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75% and 66% lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Nino events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero forestation.

Noojipady, Praveen↗