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NASA NTRS2024

Multiple Probe Measurements at Uranus Motivated By Spatial Variability

Predictably, a major motivation for multiple atmospheric probe measurements at Uranus is the understanding of dynamic processes that create and maintain spatial variation in thermal structure, composition, and horizontal winds. But origin questions---regarding the planet's formation and evolution, and conditions in the protoplanetary disk---are also major science drivers for multiprobe exploration. Spatial variation in thermal structure reveals how the atmosphere transports heat from the interior, and measuring compositional variability in the atmosphere is key to ultimately gaining an understanding of the bulk abundances of several heavy elements. We review the current knowledge of spatial variability in Uranus' atmosphere, and we outline how multiple probe exploration would advance our understanding of this variability. The other giant planets are discussed, both to connect multiprobe exploration of those atmospheres to open questions at Uranus, and to demonstrate how multiprobe exploration of Uranus itself is motivated lessons learned about the spatial variation at Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune. We outline the measurements of highest value from miniature secondary probes (which would complement more detailed investigation by a larger flagship probe), and present the path toward overcoming current challenges and uncertainties in areas including mission design, cost, trajectory, instrument maturity, power, and timeline.

Uranus↗

DOE OSTI2015

Experimental analysis of spatial correlation effects on capillary trapping of supercritical CO 2 at the intermediate laboratory scale in heterogeneous porous media

Several numerical studies have demonstrated that the heterogeneous nature of typical sedimentary formations can favorably dampen the accumulation of mobile CO 2 phase underneath the caprock. Core flooding experiments have also shown that contrasts in capillary entry pressure can lead to buildup of nonwetting fluid phase (NWP) at interfaces between facies. Explicit representation of geological heterogeneity at the intermediate (cm-to-m) scale is a powerful approach to identify the key mechanisms that control multiphase flow dynamics in porous media. The ability to carefully control flow regime and permeability contrast at a scale that is relevant to CO 2 plume dynamics in saline formations offers valuable information to understand immiscible displacement processes and provides a benchmark for mathematical models. To provide insight into the impact of capillary heterogeneity on flow dynamics and trapping efficiency of supercritical CO 2 under successive drainage and imbibition conditions, we present an experimental investigation conducted in a synthetic sand reservoir. By mimicking the interplay of governing forces at reservoir conditions via application of surrogate fluids, we performed three immiscible displacement experiments to observe the entrapment of NWP in heterogeneous porous media. Capillary trapping performance is evaluated for each scenario through spatial and temporal variations of NWP saturation; for this reason we adopted X-ray attenuation to precisely measure phase saturation throughout the flow domain and apply spatial moment analysis. Furthermore, the sweeping performance of two different permeability fields with comparable variance but distinct spatial correlation was compared against a homogeneous base case with equivalent mean permeability by means of spatial moment analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model

Realistic representations of sectoral water withdrawals and consumptive demands and their allocation to surface and groundwater sources are important for improving modeling of the integrated water cycle. To inform future model development, in this work we enhance the representation of water management in a regional Earth system (ES) model with a spatially distributed allocation of sectoral water demands simulated by a regional integrated assessment (IA) model to surface and groundwater systems. The integrated modeling framework (IA-ES) is evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow and sectoral supply deficit in major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S, which differ from ES studies looking at water storage variations. Decreases in historical supply deficit are used as metrics to evaluate IA-ES model improvement in representating the complex sectoral human activities for assessing future adaptation and mitigation strategies. We also assess the spatial changes in both regulated flow and unmet demands, for irrigation and nonirrigation sectors, resulting from the individual and combined additions of groundwater and return flow modules. Results show that groundwater use has a pronounced regional and sectoral effect by reducing water supply deficit. The effects of sectoral return flow exhibit a clear east-west contrast in the hydrologic patterns, so the return flow component combined with the IA sectoral demands is a major driver for spatial redistribution of water resources and water deficits in the US. Our analysis highlights the need for spatially distributed sectoral representation of water management to capture the regional differences in interbasin redistribution of water resources and deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting High‐Resolution Spatial and Spectral Features in Mass Spectrometry Imaging with Machine Learning and Multimodal Data Fusion

Recent advancements in molecular Mass Spectrometry Imaging have sparked interest in integrating high spatial resolution methods with molecular mass-spectrometry-based chemical imaging. Fusion-based algorithms have proven effective in generating high spatial-resolution molecular mass spectra. However, a significant challenge stems from the differing physical mechanisms underlying image generation and data upsampling techniques, potentially leading to discrepancies in integrated information channels. Integrating physical constraints into data processing workflows is essential to tackle this issue. In this study, we propose an innovative approach that merges data from Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance (FTICR), time-of-flight matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization, and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry imaging techniques. By leveraging FT-ICR's unparalleled spectral resolution and ToF-SIMS's exceptional spatial resolution, we achieve submicron spatial resolution, enabling the observation of intact molecular species with remarkable spectral precision. Canonical correlation analysis is employed to incorporate physical constraints. Through sophisticated image processing and machine learning techniques, the results of this fusion hold significant promise for advancing our comprehension of complex systems and unveiling concealed molecular intricacies.

canonical correlation analysis↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying spatially and temporally explicit CO 2 fertilization effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

Abstract Current terrestrial ecosystem models are usually driven with global average annual atmospheric carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) concentration data at the global scale. However, high‐precision CO 2 measurement from eddy flux towers showed that seasonal, spatial surface atmospheric CO 2 concentration differences were as large as 35 ppmv and the site‐level tests indicated that the CO 2 variation exhibited different effects on plant photosynthesis. Here we used a process‐based ecosystem model driven with two spatially and temporally explicit CO 2 data sets to analyze the atmospheric CO 2 fertilization effects on the global carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems from 2003 to 2010. Our results demonstrated that CO 2 seasonal variation had a negative effect on plant carbon assimilation, while CO 2 spatial variation exhibited a positive impact. When both CO 2 seasonal and spatial effects were considered, global gross primary production and net ecosystem production were 1.7 Pg C·yr −1 and 0.08 Pg C·yr −1 higher than the simulation using uniformly distributed CO 2 data set and the difference was significant in tropical and temperate evergreen broadleaf forest regions. This study suggests that the CO 2 observation network should be expanded so that the realistic CO 2 variation can be incorporated into the land surface models to adequately account for CO 2 fertilization effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quantitative metrics for assessment of chemical image quality and spatial resolution

Rationale: Currently objective/quantitative descriptions of the quality and spatial resolution of mass spectrometry derived chemical images are not standardized. Development of these standardized metrics is required to objectively describe chemical imaging capabilities of existing and/or new mass spectrometry imaging technologies. Such metrics would allow unbiased judgment of intra-laboratory advancement and/or inter-laboratory comparison for these technologies if used together with standardized surfaces. Methods: We developed two image metrics, viz., chemical image contrast (ChemIC) based on signal-to-noise related statistical measures on chemical image pixels and corrected resolving power factor (cRPF) constructed from statistical analysis of mass-to-charge chronograms across features of interest in an image. These metrics, quantifying chemical image quality and spatial resolution, respectively, were used to evaluate chemical images of a model photoresist patterned surface collected using a laser ablation/liquid vortex capture mass spectrometry imaging system under different instrument operational parameters. Results: The calculated ChemIC and cRPF metrics determined in an unbiased fashion the relative ranking of chemical image quality obtained with the laser ablation/liquid vortex capture mass spectrometry imaging system. These rankings were used to show that both chemical image contrast and spatial resolution deteriorated with increasing surface scan speed, increased lane spacing and decreasing size of surface features. Conclusions: ChemIC and cRPF, respectively, were developed and successfully applied for the objective description of chemical image quality and spatial resolution of chemical images collected from model surfaces using a laser ablation/liquid vortex capture mass spectrometry imaging system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Control of Substitutional Dopants in Hexagonal Monolayer WS 2 : The Effect of Edge Termination

The ability to control the density and spatial distribution of substitutional dopants in semiconductors is crucial for achieving desired physicochemical properties. Substitutional doping with adjustable doping levels has been previously demonstrated in 2D transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs); however, the spatial control of dopant distribution remains an open field. In this work, edge termination is demonstrated as an important characteristic of 2D TMD monocrystals that affects the distribution of substitutional dopants. Particularly, in chemical vapor deposition (CVD)-grown monolayer WS 2 , it is found that a higher density of transition metal dopants is always incorporated in sulfur-terminated domains when compared to tungsten-terminated domains. Here two representative examples demonstrate this spatial distribution control, including hexagonal iron- and vanadium-doped WS 2 monolayers. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations are further performed, indicating that the edge-dependent dopant distribution is due to a strong binding of tungsten atoms at tungsten-zigzag edges, resulting in the formation of open sites at sulfur-zigzag edges that enable preferential dopant incorporation. Based on these results, it is envisioned that edge termination in crystalline TMD monolayers can be utilized as a novel and effective knob for engineering the spatial distribution of substitutional dopants, leading to in-plane hetero-/multi-junctions that display fascinating electronic, optoelectronic, and magnetic properties.

2D transition metal dichalcogenides↗

DOE OSTI2014

A multi-scale spatial approach to address environmental effects of small hydropower development

Hydropower development continues to grow worldwide in developed and developing countries. While the ecological and physical responses to dam construction have been well documented, translating this information into planning for hydropower development is extremely difficult. Very few studies have conducted environmental assessments to guide site-specific or widespread hydropower development. Herein, we propose a spatial approach for estimating environmental effects of hydropower development at multiple scales, as opposed to individual site-by-site assessments (e.g., environmental impact assessment). Because the complex, process-driven effects of future hydropower development may be uncertain or, at best, limited by available information, we invested considerable effort in describing novel approaches to represent environmental concerns using spatial data and in developing the spatial footprint of hydropower infrastructure. Furthermore, we then use two case studies in the US, one at the scale of the conterminous US and another within two adjoining rivers basins, to examine how environmental concerns can be identified and related to areas of varying energy capacity. We use combinations of reserve-design planning and multi-metric ranking to visualize tradeoffs among environmental concerns and potential energy capacity. Spatial frameworks, like the one presented, are not meant to replace more in-depth environmental assessments, but to identify information gaps and measure the sustainability of multi-development scenarios as to inform policy decisions at the basin or national level. Most importantly, the approach should foster discussions among environmental scientists and stakeholders regarding solutions to optimize energy development and environmental sustainability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Attenuation of zinc-enhanced inflammatory M1 phenotype of microglia by peridinin protects against short-term spatial-memory impairment following cerebral ischemia in mice

Highlights: • Peridinin suppressed zinc-enhanced inflammatory M1 phenotype of microglia. • Zinc-increased microglial ROS level was abolished by peridinin. • Peridinin protected mice from ischemia-induced deficits in short-term spatial memory. Activated microglia exhibit two opposite activation states, the inflammatory M1 and the anti-inflammatory M2 activation states. In the mammalian brain, ischemia elicits a massive release of zinc from hippocampal neurons, and the extracellular zinc primes M1 microglia—by inducing reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation—to enhance their production of proinflammatory cytokines, which ultimately results in short-term spatial memory impairment. Here, we examined how peridinin, a carotenoid in dinoflagellates, affects the zinc-enhanced inflammatory M1 phenotype of microglia. Treatment of microglia with 30–300 ng/mL peridinin caused a dose-dependent attenuation of zinc-enhanced interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) secretion when M1 activation was induced by lipopolysaccharide exposure. Moreover, peridinin inhibited the increase in ROS levels in zinc-treated microglia without directly interacting with zinc. Notably, when mice were administrated peridinin (20–200 ng/animal) intracerebroventricularly 5 min before cerebral ischemia-reperfusion, the peridinin treatment not only suppressed the increase in expression of IL-1β, IL-6, TNFα, and the microglial M1 surface marker CD16/32, but also protected the mice against ischemia-induced short-term spatial-memory impairment. Our findings suggest that peridinin prevents extracellular zinc-enhanced proinflammatory cytokine secretion from M1 microglia by inhibiting the increase in microglial ROS levels, and that this anti-inflammatory effect of peridinin might result in protection against deficits in short-term spatial memory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial resolution of different discretizations over long-time for the Dirac equation with small potentials

In this report we compare the long-time error bounds and spatial resolution of finite difference methods with different spatial discretizations for the Dirac equation with small electromagnetic potentials characterized by $\varepsilon \in (0, 1]$ a dimensionless parameter. We begin with the simple and widely used finite difference time domain (FDTD) methods, and establish rigorous error bounds of them, which are valid up to the time at $O(1/\varepsilon)$. In the error estimates, we pay particular attention to how the errors depend explicitly on the mesh size $h$ and time step $\tau$ as well as the small parameter $\varepsilon$. Based on the results, in order to obtain "correct" numerical solutions up to the time at $O(1/\varepsilon)$, the $\varepsilon$-scalability (or meshing strategy requirement) of the FDTD methods should be taken as $h = O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$ and $\tau = O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$. To improve the spatial resolution capacity, we apply the Fourier spectral method to discretize the Dirac equation in space. Error bounds of the resulting finite difference Fourier pseudospectral (FDFP) methods show that they exhibit uniform spatial errors in the long-time regime, which are optimal in space as suggested by the Shannon's sampling theorem. Extensive numerical results are reported to confirm the error bounds and demonstrate that they are sharp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Creating a spatial multi-criteria decision support system for energy related integrated environmental impact assessment

By their spatially very distributed nature, profitability and impacts of renewable energy resources are highly correlated with the geographic locations of power plant deployments. A web-based Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) based on a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach has been implemented for identifying preferable locations for solar power plants based on user preferences. The designated areas found serve for the input scenario development for a subsequent integrated Environmental Impact Assessment. The capabilities of the SDSS service get showcased for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants in the region of Andalusia, Spain. The resulting spatial patterns of possible power plant sites are an important input to the procedural chain of assessing impacts of renewable energies in an integrated effort. The applied methodology and the implemented SDSS are applicable for other renewable technologies as well. - Highlights: • The proposed tool facilitates well-founded CSP plant siting decisions. • Spatial MCDA methods are implemented in a WebGIS environment. • GIS-based SDSS can contribute to a modern integrated impact assessment workflow. • The conducted case study proves the suitability of the methodology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Assessment of the importance of spatial scale in long-term land use modelling of the Midwestern United States

The purpose of this study is to assess the value of enhanced spatial resolution in the agriculture and land use component of an integrated assessment model. While these models have historically represented land use decisions at the scale of geopolitical regions, the present generation uses regions defined by climatic or environmental characteristics, to better represent the spatial heterogeneity of land productivity and potential uses. However, increasing a model’s spatial resolution incurs costs, including input data processing, structural modifications, increased run time, and increased complexity of results. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to analyze land use in the Midwestern United States in three levels of sub-regional aggregation and three scenarios of future climate mitigation. We demonstrate benefits of enhanced spatial resolution, and to facilitate the assessment of higher resolution model output we apply non-metric multidimensional scaling on a pair-wise distance matrix for visualization and analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2027

From zonal to nodal capacity expansion planning: Spatial aggregation impacts on a realistic test-case

Solving power system capacity expansion planning (CEP) problems at realistic spatial resolutions is computationally challenging. Thus, a common practice is to solve CEP over zonal models with low spatial resolution rather than over full-scale nodal power networks. Due to improvements in solving large-scale stochastic mixed integer programs, these computational limitations are becoming less relevant, and the assumption that zonal models are realistic and useful approximations of nodal CEP is worth revisiting. Here, this work is the first to conduct a systematic computational study on the assumption that spatial aggregation can reasonably be used for ISO-scale CEP. By considering a realistic, large-scale test network based on the state of California with over 8000 buses, we find that well-designed small spatial aggregations can yield good approximations but that coarser zonal models may result in large distortions of investment decisions, e.g., capacity under-investment of up to 41% for the lowest resolution model considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear control of the minimum safety factor in tokamaks by optimal allocation of spatially moving electron cyclotron current drive

The minimum value of the safety factor profile is related to the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of the plasma confined in a tokamak. Therefore, active control of the minimum safety factor may mitigate MHD instabilities that can degrade or even terminate plasma confinement. Typically, in most tokamak scenarios, the minimum safety factor evolves spatially with time, i.e., the location at which the safety factor achieves the minimum value changes with time. In addition to the inherent nonlinearities in the minimum safety factor evolution, its spatial variation makes the control design challenging. In particular, complexity in control design may arise from the need for time-dependent nonlinear models that account for spatial variation of the minimum safety factor. Furthermore, the minimum safety factor may drift to locations where the actuator authority is low. The problem of minimum safety factor control with target location tracking and moving electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) is addressed in this work. A nonlinear time-dependent model that incorporates the spatial variation of the minimum safety factor is presented. A nonlinear controller based on optimal feedback linearization is developed to track a target minimum safety factor. The proposed controller treats the ECCD position as a controllable variable. In other words, the controller prescribes the ECCD position (in addition to the non-inductive powers) in real time based on an optimal criterion that is defined a priori. This work also presents the steps necessary to integrate the minimum safety factor controller with a total energy controller to achieve multiple control objectives simultaneously. In conclusion, the proposed integrated control algorithm is tested using nonlinear simulations in the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) for a DIII-D tokamak scenario.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Co-precipitation induces changes to iron and carbon chemistry and spatial distribution at the nanometer scale

Association of organic matter (OM) with mineral phases via co-precipitation is expected to be a widespread process in environments with high OM input and frequent mineral dissolution and re-precipitation. In contrast to surface area-limited adsorption processes, co-precipitation may allow for greater carbon (C) accumulation. However, the potential sub-micrometer scale structural and compositional differences that affect the bioavailability of co-precipitated C are largely unknown. In this work, we used a combination of high-resolution analytical electron microscopy and bulk spectroscopy to probe interactions between a mineral phase (ferrihydrite, nominally Fe 2 O 3 •0.5H 2 O) and organic soil-derived water-extractable OM (WEOM). In co-precipitated WEOM-Fe, nanometer-scale scanning transmission electron microscopy with electron energy loss spectroscopy (STEM-EELS) revealed increased Fe(II) and less Fe aggregation relative to adsorbed WEOM-Fe. Spatially distinct lower- and higher-energy C regions were detected in both adsorbed and co-precipitated WEOM-Fe. In co-precipitates, lower-energy aromatic and/or substituted aromatic C was spatially associated with reduced Fe(II), but higher-energy oxidized C was enriched at the oxidized Fe(III) interface. Therefore, we show that co-precipitation does not constitute a non-specific physical encapsulation of C that only affects Fe chemistry and spatial distribution, but may cause a bi-directional set of reactions that lead to spatial separation and transformation of both Fe and C forms. In particular, we propose that abiotic redox reactions between Fe and C via substituted aromatic groups (e.g., hydroquinones) play a role in creating distinct co-precipitate composition, with potential implications for its mineralization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling Pathologic Response of Esophageal Cancer to Chemoradiation Therapy Using Spatial-Temporal {sup 18}F-FDG PET Features, Clinical Parameters, and Demographics

Purpose: To construct predictive models using comprehensive tumor features for the evaluation of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT) in patients with esophageal cancer. Methods and Materials: This study included 20 patients who underwent trimodality therapy (CRT + surgery) and underwent {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) both before and after CRT. Four groups of tumor features were examined: (1) conventional PET/CT response measures (eg, standardized uptake value [SUV]{sub max}, tumor diameter); (2) clinical parameters (eg, TNM stage, histology) and demographics; (3) spatial-temporal PET features, which characterize tumor SUV intensity distribution, spatial patterns, geometry, and associated changes resulting from CRT; and (4) all features combined. An optimal feature set was identified with recursive feature selection and cross-validations. Support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) models were constructed for prediction of pathologic tumor response to CRT, cross-validations being used to avoid model overfitting. Prediction accuracy was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and precision was evaluated by confidence intervals (CIs) of AUC. Results: When applied to the 4 groups of tumor features, the LR model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.10), 0.73 (0.07), 0.90 (0.06), and 0.90 (0.06). The SVM model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.56 (0.07), 0.60 (0.06), 0.94 (0.02), and 1.00 (no misclassifications). With the use of spatial-temporal PET features combined with conventional PET/CT measures and clinical parameters, the SVM model achieved very high accuracy (AUC 1.00) and precision (no misclassifications)—results that were significantly better than when conventional PET/CT measures or clinical parameters and demographics alone were used. For groups with many tumor features (groups 3 and 4), the SVM model achieved significantly higher accuracy than did the LR model. Conclusions: The SVM model that used all features including spatial-temporal PET features accurately and precisely predicted pathologic tumor response to CRT in esophageal cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗