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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Analysis of Trajectory Flexibility Preservation Impact on Traffic Complexity

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors proposed the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics, namely dynamic density indicators, which indicated that using the flexibility metrics reduced aircraft density and the potential of loss of separation.

Idris, Husni↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Simple Model for the Evolution of Multi-Stranded Coronal Loops

We develop and analyze a simple cellular automaton (CA) model that reproduces the main properties of the evolution of soft X-ray coronal loops. We are motivated by the observation that these loops evolve in three distinguishable phases that suggest the development, maintainance, and decay of a self-organized system. The model is based on the idea that loops are made of elemental strands that are heated by the relaxation of magnetic stress in the form of nanoflares. In this vision, usually called "the Parker conjecture" (Parker 1988), the origin of stress is the displacement of the strand footpoints due to photospheric convective motions. Modeling the response and evolution of the plasma we obtain synthetic light curves that have the same characteristic properties (intensity, fluctuations, and timescales) as the observed cases. We study the dependence of these properties on the model parameters and find scaling laws that can be used as observational predictions of the model. We discuss the implications of our results for the interpretation of recent loop observations in different wavelengths. Subject headings: Sun: corona - Sun: flares - Sun: magnetic topology - Sun: X-rays, gamma rays

Fuentes, M. C. Lopez↗
NASA NTRS2011

Complexity Management Using Metrics for Trajectory Flexibility Preservation and Constraint Minimization

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigating air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new surveillance, navigation, and communication technologies are enabling major transformations in the air traffic management system, including net-based information sharing and collaboration, performance-based access to airspace resources, and trajectory-based rather than clearance-based operations. The new system will feature different schemes for allocating tasks and responsibilities between the ground and airborne agents and between the human and automation, with potential capacity and cost benefits. Therefore, complexity management requires new metrics and methods that can support these new schemes. This paper presents metrics and methods for preserving trajectory flexibility that have been proposed to support a trajectory-based approach for complexity management by airborne or ground-based systems. It presents extensions to these metrics as well as to the initial research conducted to investigate the hypothesis that using these metrics to guide user and service provider actions will naturally mitigate traffic complexity. The analysis showed promising results in that: (1) Trajectory flexibility preservation mitigated traffic complexity as indicated by inducing self-organization in the traffic patterns and lowering traffic complexity indicators such as dynamic density and traffic entropy. (2)Trajectory flexibility preservation reduced the potential for secondary conflicts in separation assurance. (3) Trajectory flexibility metrics showed potential application to support user and service provider negotiations for minimizing the constraints imposed on trajectories without jeopardizing their objectives.

Idris, Husni↗
NASA NTRS2005

NASA Tech Briefs, December 2005

Topics covered include: Video Mosaicking for Inspection of Gas Pipelines; Shuttle-Data-Tape XML Translator; Highly Reliable, High-Speed, Unidirectional Serial Data Links; Data-Analysis System for Entry, Descent, and Landing; Hybrid UV Imager Containing Face-Up AlGaN/GaN Photodiodes; Multiple Embedded Processors for Fault-Tolerant Computing; Hybrid Power Management; Magnetometer Based on Optoelectronic Microwave Oscillator; Program Predicts Time Courses of Human/ Computer Interactions; Chimera Grid Tools; Astronomer's Proposal Tool; Conservative Patch Algorithm and Mesh Sequencing for PAB3D; Fitting Nonlinear Curves by Use of Optimization Techniques; Tool for Viewing Faults Under Terrain; Automated Synthesis of Long Communication Delays for Testing; Solving Nonlinear Euler Equations With Arbitrary Accuracy; Self-Organizing-Map Program for Analyzing Multivariate Data; Tool for Sizing Analysis of the Advanced Life Support System; Control Software for a High-Performance Telerobot; Java Radar Analysis Tool; Architecture for Verifiable Software; Tool for Ranking Research Options; Enhanced, Partially Redundant Emergency Notification System; Close-Call Action Log Form; Task Description Language; Improved Small-Particle Powders for Plasma Spraying; Bonding-Compatible Corrosion Inhibitor for Rinsing Metals; Wipes, Coatings, and Patches for Detecting Hydrazines; Rotating Vessels for Growing Protein Crystals; Oscillating-Linear-Drive Vacuum Compressor for CO2; Mechanically Biased, Hinged Pairs of Piezoelectric Benders; Apparatus for Precise Indium-Bump Bonding of Microchips; Radiation Dosimetry via Automated Fluorescence Microscopy; Multistage Magnetic Separator of Cells and Proteins; Elastic-Tether Suits for Artificial Gravity and Exercise; Multichannel Brain-Signal-Amplifying and Digitizing System; Ester-Based Electrolytes for Low-Temperature Li-Ion Cells; Hygrometer for Detecting Water in Partially Enclosed Volumes; Radio-Frequency Plasma Cleaning of a Penning Malmberg Trap; Reduction of Flap Side Edge Noise - the Blowing Flap; and Preventing Accidental Ignition of Upper-Stage Rocket Motors.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Flood Inundation Mapping in the Logone Floodplain from Multi Temporal Landsat ETM+Imagery

Yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain makes an impact on agricultural, pastoral, and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent and depth are highly variable, flood inundation mapping helps us make better use of water resources and prevent flood hazards in the Logone floodplain. The flood maps are generated from 33 multi temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) during three years 2006 to 2008. Flooded area is classified using a short-wave infrared band whereas open water is classified by Iterative Self-organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to approximately 5.8K km2 in late October 2008. The study also provides strong correlation of the flooding extents with water height variations in both the floodplain and the river based on a second polynomial regression model. The water heights are from ENIVSAT altimetry in the floodplain and gauge measurements in the river. Coefficients of determination between flooding extents and water height variations are greater than 0.91 with 4 to 36 days in phase lag. Floodwater drains back to the river and to the northeast during the recession period in December and January. The study supports understanding of the Logone floodplain dynamics in detail of spatial pattern and size of the flooding extent and assists the flood monitoring and prediction systems in the catchment.

Jung, Hahn Chul↗
NASA NTRS2012

A DNA-Inspired Encryption Methodology for Secure, Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

Users are pushing for greater physical mobility with their network and Internet access. Mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) can provide an efficient mobile network architecture, but security is a key concern. A figure summarizes differences in the state of network security for MANET and fixed networks. MANETs require the ability to distinguish trusted peers, and tolerate the ingress/egress of nodes on an unscheduled basis. Because the networks by their very nature are mobile and self-organizing, use of a Public Key Infra structure (PKI), X.509 certificates, RSA, and nonce ex changes becomes problematic if the ideal of MANET is to be achieved. Molecular biology models such as DNA evolution can provide a basis for a proprietary security architecture that achieves high degrees of diffusion and confusion, and resistance to cryptanalysis. A proprietary encryption mechanism was developed that uses the principles of DNA replication and steganography (hidden word cryptography) for confidentiality and authentication. The foundation of the approach includes organization of coded words and messages using base pairs organized into genes, an expandable genome consisting of DNA-based chromosome keys, and a DNA-based message encoding, replication, and evolution and fitness. In evolutionary computing, a fitness algorithm determines whether candidate solutions, in this case encrypted messages, are sufficiently encrypted to be transmitted. The technology provides a mechanism for confidential electronic traffic over a MANET without a PKI for authenticating users.

Shaw, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2012

Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods

Way, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ice Roughness in Short Duration SLD Icing Events

Ice accretion codes depend on models of roughness parameters to account for the enhanced heat transfer during the ice accretion process. While mitigating supercooled large droplet (SLD or Appendix O) icing is a significant concern for manufacturers seeking future vehicle certification due to the pending regulation, historical ice roughness studies have been performed using Appendix C icing clouds which exhibit mean volumetric diameters (MVD) much smaller than SLD clouds. Further, the historical studies of roughness focused on extracting parametric representations of ice roughness using multiple images of roughness elements. In this study, the ice roughness developed on a 21-in. NACA 0012 at 0deg angle of attack exposed to short duration SLD icing events was measured in the Icing Research Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The MVD's used in the study ranged from 100 micrometer to 200 micrometers, in a 67 m/s flow, with liquid water contents of either 0.6 gm/cubic meters or 0.75 gm/cubic meters. The ice surfaces were measured using a Romer Absolute Arm laser scanning system. The roughness associated with each surface point cloud was measured using the two-dimensional self-organizing map approach developed by McClain and Kreeger (2013) resulting in statistical descriptions of the ice roughness.

Icing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing and Promoting Functional Resilience in Flight Crews During Exploration Missions

NASA plans to send humans to Mars in about 20 years. The NASA Human Research Program supports research to mitigate the major risks to human health and performance on extended missions. However, there will undoubtedly be unforeseen events on any mission of this nature - thus mitigation of known risks alone is not sufficient to ensure optimal crew health and performance. Research should be directed not only to mitigating known risks, but also to providing crews with the tools to assess and enhance resilience, as a group and individually. We can draw on ideas from complexity theory and network theory to assess crew and individual resilience. The entire crew or the individual crewmember can be viewed as a complex system that is composed of subsystems (individual crewmembers or physiological subsystems), and the interactions between subsystems are of crucial importance for overall health and performance. An understanding of the structure of the interactions can provide important information even in the absence of complete information on the component subsystems. This is critical in human spaceflight, since insufficient flight opportunities exist to elucidate the details of each subsystem. Enabled by recent advances in noninvasive measurement of physiological and behavioral parameters, subsystem monitoring can be implemented within a mission and also during preflight training to establish baseline values and ranges. Coupled with appropriate mathematical modeling, this can provide real-time assessment of health and function, and detect early indications of imminent breakdown. Since the interconnected web of physiological systems (and crewmembers) can be interpreted as a network in mathematical terms, we can draw on recent work that relates the structure of such networks to their resilience (ability to self-organize in the face of perturbation). There are many parameters and interactions to choose from. Normal variability is an established characteristic of a healthy physiological response. Healthy coupling has been investigated less extensively, but there are cases in which too tight or too loose coupling can be problematic. This might be in inter-individual behaviors, such as sleep cycles, coordination of work and meal times, and coupled motions during communication. Less apparent are couplings of physiological systems, nevertheless examples abound of coupled systems which might be monitored: cardio-respiratory rhythms; circadian rhythms, body temperature, and sleep; stress markers and cognition, sleep, and performance; profiles of biochemical markers related to immune function and nutritional status; sensorimotor aspects such as motion sickness, ataxia, reaction time, and manual control. Tools for resilience are then the means to measure and analyze these parameters, incorporate them into appropriate models of normal variability and interconnectedness, and recognize when parameters or their couplings are outside of normal limits. What to do when a problem is identified depends on its nature. Changes can be made to crew procedures, work pacing, interpersonal interactions, sleep cycles, meal timing and content, as guided by the model. Use and continued development of these methods could not only provide tools for resilience, but also meaningful autonomous work for the crew on an extended flight.

Shelhamer, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing and Promoting Functional Resilience in Flight Crews During Exploration Missions

The NASA Human Research Program works to mitigate risks to health and performance on extended missions. However, research should be directed not only to mitigating known risks, but also to providing crews with tools to assess and enhance resilience, as a group and individually. We can draw on ideas from complexity theory to assess resilience. The entire crew or the individual crewmember can be viewed as a complex system composed of subsystems; the interactions between subsystems are of crucial importance. Understanding the interactions can provide important information even in the absence of complete information on the component subsystems. Enabled by advances in noninvasive measurement of physiological and behavioral parameters, subsystem monitoring can be implemented within a mission and during training to establish baselines. Coupled with mathematical modeling, this can provide assessment of health and function. Since the web of physiological systems (and crewmembers) can be interpreted as a network in mathematical terms, we can draw on recent work that relates the structure of such networks to their resilience (ability to self-organize in the face of perturbation). Some of the many parameters and interactions to choose from include: sleep cycles, coordination of work and meal times, cardiorespiratory rhythms, circadian rhythms and body temperature, stress markers and cognition, sleep and performance, immune function and nutritional status. Tools for resilience are then the means to measure and analyze these parameters, incorporate them into models of normal variability and interconnectedness, and recognize when parameters or their couplings are outside of normal limits.

Shelhamer, M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Serious Gaming for Test & Evaluation of Clean-Slate (Ab Initio) National Airspace System (NAS) Designs

Incremental approaches to air transportation system development inherit current architectural constraints, which, in turn, place hard bounds on system capacity, efficiency of performance, and complexity. To enable airspace operations of the future, a clean-slate (ab initio) airspace design(s) must be considered. This ab initio National Airspace System (NAS) must be capable of accommodating increased traffic density, a broader diversity of aircraft, and on-demand mobility. System and subsystem designs should scale to accommodate the inevitable demand for airspace services that include large numbers of autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and a paradigm shift in general aviation (e.g., personal air vehicles) in addition to more traditional aerial vehicles such as commercial jetliners and weather balloons. The complex and adaptive nature of ab initio designs for the future NAS requires new approaches to validation, adding a significant physical experimentation component to analytical and simulation tools. In addition to software modeling and simulation, the ability to exercise system solutions in a flight environment will be an essential aspect of validation. The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Autonomy Incubator seeks to develop a flight simulation infrastructure for ab initio modeling and simulation that assumes no specific NAS architecture and models vehicle-to-vehicle behavior to examine interactions and emergent behaviors among hundreds of intelligent aerial agents exhibiting collaborative, cooperative, coordinative, selfish, and malicious behaviors. The air transportation system of the future will be a complex adaptive system (CAS) characterized by complex and sometimes unpredictable (or unpredicted) behaviors that result from temporal and spatial interactions among large numbers of participants. A CAS not only evolves with a changing environment and adapts to it, it is closely coupled to all systems that constitute the environment. Thus, the ecosystem that contains the system and other systems evolves with the CAS as well. The effects of the emerging adaptation and co-evolution are difficult to capture with only combined mathematical and computational experimentation. Therefore, an ab initio flight simulation environment must accommodate individual vehicles, groups of self-organizing vehicles, and large-scale infrastructure behavior. Inspired by Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPG) and Serious Gaming, the proposed ab initio simulation environment is similar to online gaming environments in which player participants interact with each other, affect their environment, and expect the simulation to persist and change regardless of any individual player's active participation.

Allen, B. Danette↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Ice Roughness Variations in Scaled Glaze Icing Conditions

Because of the significant influence of surface tension in governing the stability and breakdown of the liquid film in flooded stagnation regions of airfoils exposed to glaze icing conditions, the Weber number is expected to be a significant parameter governing the formation and evolution of ice roughness. To investigate the influence of the Weber number on roughness formation, 53.3-cm (21-in.) and 182.9-cm (72-in.) NACA 0012 airfoils were exposed to flow conditions with essentially the same Weber number and varying stagnation collection efficiency to illuminate similarities of the ice roughness created on the different airfoils. The airfoils were exposed to icing conditions in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Following exposure to the icing event, the airfoils were then scanned using a ROMER Absolute Arm scanning system. The resulting point clouds were then analyzed using the self-organizing map approach of McClain and Kreeger (2013) to determine the spatial roughness variations along the surfaces of the iced airfoils. The roughness characteristics on each airfoil were then compared using the relative geometries of the airfoil. The results indicate that features of the ice shape and roughness such as glaze-ice plateau limits and maximum airfoil roughness were captured well by Weber number and collection efficiency scaling of glaze icing conditions. However, secondary ice roughness features relating the instability and waviness of the liquid film on the glaze-ice plateau surface are scaled based on physics that were not captured by the local collection efficiency variations.

Roughness Formation↗
NASA NTRS2017

Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

Ozone variables↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time and Measurement Days

Questions in data analysis involving the concepts of time and measurement are often pushed into the background or reserved for a philosophical discussion. Some examples are: a) Is causality a consequence of the laws of physics, or can the arrow of time be reversed? b) Can we determine the arrow of time of an event? c) Do we need the continuum hypothesis for the underlying function in any measurement process? d) Can we say anything about the analyticity of the underlying process of an event? e) Would it be valid to model a non-analytical process as function of time? f) What are the implications of all these questions for classical Fourier techniques? However, in the age of big data gathered either from space missions supplying ultra-precise long time series, or e.g. LIGO data from the ground, the moment to bring these questions to the foreground seems arrived. The limitations of our understanding of some fundamental processes is emphasized by the lack of solution for problems open for more than 2 decades, such as the non-detection of solar g-modes, or the modal identification of main sequence stellar pulsators like delta Scuti stars. Flicker noise or 1/f noise, for example, attributed in solar-like stars to granulation, is analyzed mostly only to apply noise reduction techniques, neither considering the classical problem of 1/f noise that was introduced a 100 years ago, nor taking into account ergodic or non-ergodic solutions that make inapplicable spectral analysis techniques in practice. This topic was discussed by Nicholas W. Watkins during the ITISE meeting held in Granada in 2016. There he presented preliminary results of his research on Mandelbrot's related work. We reproduce here his quotation of Mandelbrot (1999) "There is a sharp contrast between a highly anomalous ("non-white") noise that proceeds in ordinary clock time and a noise whose principal anomaly is that it is restricted to fractal time", suggesting a connection with the above proposed topics that could be phrased as the following additional questions:a) Is self-organized criticality (SOC) frequent in astrophysical phenomena? b) Could all fractals in nature be considered stochastic? c) Could we establish mathematical/physical relationships between chaotic and fractal behaviors in time series? d) Could the differences between fractals and chaos in terms of analyticity be used to understand the residuals of the fitting of stellar light curves? In this meeting we would like to approximate these problems from a holistic and multidisciplinary perspective, taking into account not only technical issues but also the deeper implications. In particular the concept of connectivity (introduced in Pascual-Granado et al. A&A, 2015) could be used to implement, within the framework of ARMA processes, an "arrow of time" (see attached document), and so studying the possible implications in the concept of time as envisaged by Watkins.

data analysis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Ice Roughness and Thickness Evolution on a Swept NACA 0012 Airfoil

Several recent studies have been performed in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at NASA Glenn Research Center focusing on the evolution, spatial variations, and proper scaling of ice roughness on airfoils without sweep exposed to icing conditions employed in classical roughness studies. For this study, experiments were performed in the IRT to investigate the ice roughness and thickness evolution on a 91.44-cm (36-in.) chord NACA 0012 airfoil, swept at 30-deg with 0deg angle of attack, and exposed to both Appendix C and Appendix O (SLD) icing conditions. The ice accretion event times used in the study were less than the time required to form substantially three-dimensional structures, such as scallops, on the airfoil surface. Following each ice accretion event, the iced airfoils were scanned using a ROMER Absolute Arm laser-scanning system. The resulting point clouds were then analyzed using the self-organizing map approach of McClain and Kreeger to determine the spatial roughness variations along the surfaces of the iced airfoils. The resulting measurements demonstrate linearly increasing roughness and thickness parameters with ice accretion time. Further, when compared to dimensionless or scaled results from unswept airfoil investigations, the results of this investigation indicate that the mechanisms for early stage roughness and thickness formation on swept wings are similar to those for unswept wings.

glaze icing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classification of Meteorological Influences Surrounding Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Extreme precipitation events can have a large impact on society through flooding that can result in property destruction, crop losses, economic losses, the spread of water-borne diseases, and fatalities. Observations indicate there has been a statistically significant increase in extreme precipitation events over the past 15 years in the Northeastern United States and other localized regions of the country have become crippled with record flooding events, for example, the flooding that occurred in the Southeast United States associated with Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Extreme precipitation events in the United States can be caused by various meteorological influences such as extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complexes, general air mass thunderstorms, upslope flow, fronts, and the North American Monsoon. Reanalyses, such as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), have become a pivotal tool to study the meteorology surrounding extreme precipitation events. Using days classified as an extreme precipitation events based on a combination of observational gauge and radar data, two techniques for the classification of these events are used to gather additional information that can be used to determine how events have changed over time using atmospheric data from MERRA-2. The first is self organizing maps, which is an artificial neural network that uses unsupervised learning to cluster like patterns and the second is an automated detection technique that searches for characteristics in the atmosphere that define a meteorological phenomena. For example, the automated detection for tropical cycles searches for a defined area of suppressed sea level pressure, alongside thickness anomalies aloft, indicating the presence of a warm core. These techniques are employed for extreme precipitation events in preselected regions that were chosen based an analysis of the climatology of precipitation.

Monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS2018

Power-Law Statistics of Driven Reconnection in the Magnetically Closed Corona

Numerous observations have revealed that power-law distributions are ubiquitous in energetic solar processes. Hard X-rays, soft X-rays, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and radio waves all display power-law frequency distributions. Since magnetic reconnection is the driving mechanism for many energetic solar phenomena, it is likely that reconnection events themselves display such power-law distributions. In this work, we perform numerical simulations of the solar corona driven by simple convective motions at the photospheric level. Using temperature changes, current distributions, and Poynting fluxes as proxies for heating, we demonstrate that energetic events occurring in our simulation display power-law frequency distributions, with slopes in good agreement with observations. We suggest that the braiding-associated reconnection in the corona can be understood in terms of a self-organized criticality model driven by convective rotational motions similar to those observed at the photosphere.

Knizhnik, K. J.↗