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At least 505 records · Page 28

The Modeled Performance of the ORNL Matched Filter Detector for Seismic Signatures of Multi-Axle Tractor Trailers

The MINOS program seeks methods to passively monitor the transfer of special materials, which are reproducible and quantitatively defensible. To date, we have demonstrated that short-period seismometers deployed near vehicle tracks can detect and monitor signatures of multi-axle tractor trailers impacting small road obstacles as means to detect and identify some transfer activities. In this report, we model the seismic velocity signal output from a tractor-trailer impacting a small obstacle (a template waveform) to parameterize a matched filter that identifies signals with similar shapes buried in noise, and that indicate repeating events (target waveforms). We then use this model to perform thousands of synthetic experiments, in which we apply our detector to identify noisy waveforms output from a similarly modeled vehicle data set; we process all data in the same manner as we process real data collected from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) seismic network. Our experiments, while limited, reveal that the matched filter shows a high discrimination capability, and at very low SNR values (at visibility thresholds). This means that template waveforms can match target waveforms that are sourced by models that share the same vehicle speed (target vehicles), and have a low probability of mis-identification. In particular, a matched filter designed to detect a five-axle tractor-trailer will reliably identify that target vehicle down to an SNR of 11.25 dB, and within ±0.1 km/hr, while successfully screening target vehicles with three axles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

3D orthorhombic earth model effects on seismic source characterization

Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GraphAlign: Graph-Enabled Machine Learning for Seismic Event Filtering

This report summarizes results from a 2 year effort to improve the current automated seismic event processing system by leveraging machine learning models that can operated over the inherent graph data structure of a seismic sensor network. Specifically, the GraphAlign project seeks to utilize prior information on which stations are more likely to detect signals originating from particular geographic regions to inform event filtering. To date, the GraphAlign team has developed a Graphical Neural Network (GNN) model to filter out false events generated by the Global Associator (GA) algorithm. The algorithm operates directly on waveform data that has been associated to an event by building a variable sized graph of station waveforms nodes with edge relations to an event location node. This builds off of previous work where random forest models were used to do the same task using hand crafted features. The GNN model performance was analyzed using an 8 week IMS/IDC dataset, and it was demonstrated that the GNN outperforms the random forest baseline. We provide additional error analysis of which events the GNN model performs well and poorly against concluded by future directions for improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Next Generation Seismic Analyses and Monitoring

The development of methods and capabilities to compute complete waveform simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models along with adjoint methods for computing the fully 3D sensitivity kernels in the 2000's set the stage for new advances in seismic imaging. I believe that the full benefits of adjoint waveform tomography (AWT) are not yet fully realized and this will be an important direction for the future of seismic tomography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting seismic amplitudes with machine learning

The accurate estimation of seismic wave amplitude is vital to precisely determine the yield, magnitude, and event discrimination possible for a given network – a critical element in nuclear explosion monitoring. This task is complicated by several factors, including but not limited to radiation pattern, scattering effects, and crustal variations, which can lead to the attenuation or amplification of amplitude along a given raypath. In this report, we explore the novel application of machine learning to the task of seismic amplitude estimation by training a simple Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on an S-wave amplitude dataset from Lai et al. (2019). Attributes from this dataset used as input to the ANN included event-station distances, station locations (latitude, longitude), event locations (latitude, longitude), event depths, event magnitudes, radiation patterns, signal-to noise ratio (SNR) measurements (average-amplitude, peak-to-trough, maximum peak), and signal periods. We find that the trained ANN predicts S-wave amplitudes with a modest tendency toward underestimating the actual values, as indicated by a linear regression between predicted and actual data (slope: 0.892, intercept: -0.651). These results suggest that an ANN can perform this task, with potential for significant improvements through improved datasets, architectures, and parameter tuning.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Iraq Based on the Updated Earthquake Catalog (1900-2021) and Ground Motion Characteristics

Onur et al. (2017) compiled the first comprehensive earthquake catalog for Iraq, covering 1900 to 2009 within 26°–40°N latitude and 36°–51°E longitude. This catalog was utilized in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) by Abdulnaby et al. (2020) to aid in updating Iraq’s building code seismic provisions. Recently, we have updated the earthquake catalog for Iraq by adding earthquakes recorded from 2010 to 2021 and directly calculating moment magnitude (Mw) for about 2,800 earthquakes using the coda envelope methodology and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (CRADA Final Report)

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC ("LLNS"), as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ("LLNL"), The Regents of the University of California, as manager and operator of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Collectively, Contractors) and Nanometrics, Inc. ("Participant"), to develop a toolkit called "Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION)" that includes a decision tree method for operational forecasting of induced seismicity rates related to fluid disposal operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

FY 2025 End of Year Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and Seismometers

This end-of-year report summarizes progress on using seismic monitoring to detect, associate, and locate anomalous vibration signals that may indicate potential containment breaches. The work focused on four key tasks: 1. Developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data from multiple sensing modalities. 2. Refining and implementing detection and association algorithms to generate a catalog of anomalous underground activities. 3. Testing and improving distributed acoustic sensing amplitude-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. 4. Testing and refining seismic array polarization-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. This report provides a brief recap of results from the FY25 midyear report (Tasks 1 and 2) and presents new findings from geolocation methods (Tasks 3 and 4).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The propagation of seismic waves, misinformation, and disinformation from the 2024-10-05 M 4.5 Iran earthquake

The 2024-10-05 Iran M 4.5 earthquake took place at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. We perform a discrimination and moment tensor analysis and identify a shallow-dipping, reverse fault source commensurate with the compressional setting of the Iranian interior. Nonetheless, the event's aftermath saw widespread dissemination of misinformation, and potentially active disinformation, concluding that it was in fact a test of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The 'evidence' for many of these claims was based on inaccurate interpretation of seismic data. In this paper, we analyze how geophysical 'fake news' propagated through social media (mainly Twitter/X) following this event, eventually gaining traction in mainstream, earned media. This event is an illustrative warning of how seismic data can be misinterpreted and/or manipulated in public discourse.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data for Monitoring Fracture Saturation with Internal Transportable Seismic Sources and Twin Neural Networks

Seismic coda-wave analysis is a well-developed method for detecting subtle physical changes in complex media by measuring arrival times in the late-arriving energy from multiply-scattered or reflected waves. However, a challenge arises when multiply-scattered waves are not sufficiently separated in time from the direct arrivals to provide a clear coda wave train. Additional complications for monitoring changes in fracture systems arise when the signals originate from unsynchronized internal sources, such as natural induced seismicity, from acoustic emission, or from transportable intra-fracture sources (chattering dust), that generate uncontrolled signals that vary in arrival time, amplitude and frequency content. Here, we use a twin neural network (also known as a Siamese neural network) for dimensionality reduction to analyze signals from chattering dust to classify the fluid saturation state of a synthetic fracture system. The twin neural network with shared weights generates a low-dimensional representation of the data input by minimizing contrastive loss, serving as the input to a multiclass classifier that accurately classifies whether multiple fractures in a fracture system are fully saturated or partially saturated, or whether a change in saturation has occurred in different fractures in the system. These results show that information buried in unresolved codas from uncontrolled sources can be extracted using machine learning to monitor the evolution of fracture systems caused by physical and chemical processes even when the scattered and direct wave fields overlap.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Passive seismic experiment

The establishment of a network of seismic stations on the lunar surface as a result of equipment installed by Apollo 12, 14, and 15 flights is described. Four major discoveries obtained by analyzing seismic data from the network are discussed. The use of the system to detect vibrations of the lunar surface and the use of the data to determine the internal structure, physical state, and tectonic activity of the moon are examined.

Latham, G. V.↗

Satellite Relay Telemetry of Seismic Data in Earthquake Prediction and Control

The Satellite Telemetry Earthquake Monitoring Program was started to evaluate the applicability of satellite relay telemetry in the collection of seismic data from a large number of dense seismograph clusters laid out along the major fault systems of western North America. Prototype clusters utilizing phone-line telemetry were then being installed by the National Center for Earthquake Research in 3 regions along the San Andreas fault in central California; and the experience of installing and operating the clusters and in reducing and analyzing the seismic data from them was to provide the raw materials for evaluation in the satellite relay telemetry project. The principal advantages of the satellite relay system over commercial telephone or microwave systems were: (1) it could be made less prone to massive failure during a major earthquake; (2) it could be extended readily into undeveloped regions; and (3) it could provide flexible, uniform communications over large sections of major global tectonic zones. Fundamental characteristics of a communications system to cope with the large volume of raw data collected by a short-period seismograph network are discussed.

Jackson, W. H.↗

Evaluation of feasibility of mapping seismically active faults in Alaska

The author has identified the following significant results. The Yukon-Tanana uplands north and east of Fairbanks appear, on ERTS-1 imagery, to be composed of a number of large-scale (approximately 100 kilometers square) crustal blocks. The boundaries of these blocks appear to be defined by a number of northeast-striking lineaments which form the major river valleys of the area. Principal among these are the valleys of the Salcha River, the Cehan River, and the Chatanika River. These lineaments are all seismically active, and are thus presumed to be faults. This parallel set of lineaments appears to be intersected at various angles by a secondary set of faults trending generally north to south. The larger earthquakes in the area occur at the intersections of the two sets. It appears that seismicity of this part of Alaska may be conceptually represented by the grinding together of rigid blocks, with earthquakes occurring along their common boundaries and at the intersections where three or more blocks come in contact.

Gedney, L. D.↗