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NASA NTRS1994

Pilot interaction with cockpit automation 2: An experimental study of pilots' model and awareness of the Flight Management System

Technological developments have made it possible to automate more and more functions on the commercial aviation flight deck and in other dynamic high-consequence domains. This increase in the degrees of freedom in design has shifted questions away from narrow technological feasibility. Many concerned groups, from designers and operators to regulators and researchers, have begun to ask questions about how we should use the possibilities afforded by technology skillfully to support and expand human performance. In this article, we report on an experimental study that addressed these questions by examining pilot interaction with the current generation of flight deck automation. Previous results on pilot-automation interaction derived from pilot surveys, incident reports, and training observations have produced a corpus of features and contexts in which human-machine coordination is likely to break down (e.g., automation surprises). We used these data to design a simulated flight scenario that contained a variety of probes designed to reveal pilots' mental model of one major component of flight deck automation: the Flight Management System (FMS). The events within the scenario were also designed to probe pilots' ability to apply their knowledge and understanding in specific flight contexts and to examine their ability to track the status and behavior of the automated system (mode awareness). Although pilots were able to 'make the system work' in standard situations, the results reveal a variety of latent problems in pilot-FMS interaction that can affect pilot performance in nonnormal time critical situations.

Sarter, Nadine B.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Human Factors Assessment and Redesign of the ISS Respiratory Support Pack (RSP) Cue Card

The Respiratory Support Pack (RSP) is a medical pack onboard the International Space Station (ISS) that contains much of the necessary equipment for providing aid to a conscious or unconscious crewmember in respiratory distress. Inside the RSP lid pocket is a 5.5 by 11 inch paper procedural cue card, which is used by a Crew Medical Officer (CMO) to set up the equipment and deliver oxygen to a crewmember. In training, crewmembers expressed concerns about the readability and usability of the cue card; consequently, updating the cue card was prioritized as an activity to be completed. The Usability Testing and Analysis Facility at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) evaluated the original layout of the cue card, and proposed several new cue card designs based on human factors principles. The approach taken for the assessment was an iterative process. First, in order to completely understand the issues with the RSP cue card, crewmember post training comments regarding the RSP cue card were taken into consideration. Over the course of the iterative process, the procedural information was reorganized into a linear flow after the removal of irrelevant (non-emergency) content. Pictures, color coding, and borders were added to highlight key components in the RSP to aid in quickly identifying those components. There were minimal changes to the actual text content. Three studies were conducted using non-medically trained JSC personnel (total of 34 participants). Non-medically trained personnel participated in order to approximate a scenario of limited CMO exposure to the RSP equipment and training (which can occur six months prior to the mission). In each study, participants were asked to perform two respiratory distress scenarios using one of the cue card designs to simulate resuscitation (using a mannequin along with the hardware). Procedure completion time, errors, and subjective ratings were recorded. The last iteration of the cue card featured a schematic of the RSP, colors, borders, and simplification of the flow of information. The time to complete the RSP procedure was reduced by approximately three minutes with the new design. In an emergency situation, three minutes significantly increases the probability of saving a life. In addition, participants showed the highest preference for this design. The results of the studies and the new design were presented to a focus group of astronauts, flight surgeons, medical trainers, and procedures personnel. The final cue card was presented to a medical control board and approved for flight. The revised RSP cue card is currently onboard ISS.

Byrne, Vicky↗

NASA NTRS2017

Repeated Induction of Inattentional Blindness in a Simulated Aviation Environment

The study reported herein is a subset of a larger investigation on the role of automation in the context of the flight deck and used a fixed-based, human-in-the-loop simulator. This paper explored the relationship between automation and inattentional blindness (IB) occurrences in a repeated induction paradigm using two types of runway incursions. The critical stimuli for both runway incursions were directly relevant to primary task performance. Sixty non-pilot participants performed the final five minutes of a landing scenario twice in one of three automation conditions: full automation (FA), partial automation (PA), and no automation (NA). The first induction resulted in a 70 percent (42 of 60) detection failure rate with those in the PA condition significantly more likely to detect the incursion compared to the FA condition or the NA condition. The second induction yielded a 50 percent detection failure rate. Although detection improved (detection failure rates declined) in all conditions, those in the FA condition demonstrated the greatest improvement with doubled detection rates. The detection behavior in the first trial did not preclude a failed detection in the second induction. Group membership (IB vs. Detection) in the FA condition showed a greater improvement than those in the NA condition and rated the Mental Demand and Effort subscales of the NASA-TLX (NASA Task Load Index) significantly higher for Time 2 compared Time 1. Participants in the FA condition used the experience of IB exposure to improve task performance whereas those in the NA condition did not, indicating the availability and reallocation of attentional resources in the FA condition. These findings support the role of engagement in operational attention detriment and the consideration of attentional failure causation to determine appropriate mitigation strategies.

Kennedy, Kellie D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radiological Recovery Logistics Tool - 20161

Argonne is building and testing a tool, the Radiological Recovery Logistics Tool (RRLT), that can be used during the response and recovery from a radiological or nuclear incident to effectively allocate appropriate commercial and public works equipment to mitigate, remove, and contain radiological contamination. The requirements for this tool - as well as development of the resulting software - is overseen by a steering committee of stakeholders from DHS's National Urban Security Technology Laboratory (NUSTL), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). One essential requirement is for RRLT to support the efficient and appropriate allocation of resources for a radiological response. Subsequent discussions between ANL and stakeholders have solidified the nature of this support to include identification of the types of resources to be allocated. The study reported in this paper has both factored fundamental concepts and connections out of this identification process and created a Knowledge Base detailing support goals, response scenarios, and efficacy information on dozens of equipment types. In short, RRLT will dynamically apply these findings to situational conditions surrounding contamination incidents. RRLT's Domain, the model of elements, ideas and relationships with which the tool will work, draws concepts from technical reports and stakeholder vocabularies to connect response goals and scenarios to types of equipment that offer utility towards those goals in those scenarios. RRLT's Knowledge Base will contain details on dozens of equipment types and facilitate the operator's discovery and consumption of these details most pertinent to a dynamically selected subset of goals. The core of its Domain Model is based on a report authored by this team. This report [1] contains a comprehensive list of proposed equipment to accomplish various missions or scenarios that might arise after a large-scale radiological contamination incident in an urban environment or critical infrastructure. The report divides potential response and recovery efforts into five support goals: Survey and monitoring of the contaminated area; Mitigation of received dose to first responders: Decontamination (gross and final) of buildings, vehicles, roadways, parks, and other surfaces: Waste management of solid waste generated during recovery operations: and Containment of wastewater and other waste generated during the response and recovery phases. RRLT's development is driven by use cases. A use case is an intention with which a user approaches the software. Use cases are grouped into delivery increments to schedule development, testing, and presentation to stakeholders. This model partitions the system into seven increments: User Arrival and Authentication, Search and Navigation, Equipment Recommendation, Plan Management, Content Management, and Expanded Access. Once a user 15 authenticated, RRLT will present the user with a dashboard that allows them to explore or search RRLT's content. The dashboard will also include a 'Plan' panel for collecting decisions and relevant observations about an incident at hand to facilitate development of an equipment list. RRLT will offer three general modes of access to items in the knowledge base: - Keyword search for direct discovery of items, - Navigation along predetermined paths from recovery goal towards equipment types, and - Interactive guidance towards equipment types by an autonomous software agent: the Equipment Recommendation Wizard. This presentation will detail progress in the development of the RRLT and also discuss opportunities for those interested in providing feedback on its content and functionality. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

MSR Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection White Paper

This document represents the status of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) characteristics for the Molten Salt Reactor designs selected by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) provisional System Steering Committee (pSSC) as representatives of three broad classes of MSRs. The three classes of MSRs are: (1) Liquid-fueled with integrated salt processing, (2) Liquid-fueled without integrated salt processing, (3) Solid-fueled with salt coolant. The intent is to generate preliminary information about the PR&PP merits of the MSR Reactor Technology and to provide insights for optimizing their PR&PP performance for the benefit of MSR system designers. It updates the MSR analysis published in the 2011 report “Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection of the Six Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems”, prepared Jointly by the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Working Group (PRPPWG) and the System Steering Committees of the Generation IV International Forum, taking into account the evolution of both the systems and the GIF R&D activities since its publication. The document, prepared jointly by the GIF PRPPWG and the GIF MSR pSSC, follows the high-level paradigm of the GIF Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Evaluation Methodology to investigate the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection features of the GIF MSR representative designs. For PR, the document analyses and discusses the proliferation resistance aspects in terms of robustness against State-based threats associated with diversion of materials, misuse of facilities, breakout scenarios, and production in clandestine facilities. Similarly, for physical protection, the document discusses the robustness against theft of material and sabotage by non-State actors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Orthogonal Recursive Bisection (ORB) Based Time Advancement Algorithm for CFD-DEM Solvers

The time integration of the granular phase in coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) – discrete element method (DEM) simulations presents a unique computational challenge brought about by the large variations in particle collisional time scales. Particles in the dilute regions of the computational domain can be advanced with large time steps while dense regions require much smaller time increments. However, the time step size in most solvers is globally set as the limit for accuracy and stability imposed by the collisions and is typically orders of magnitude less than that required away from collisions. This work addresses this precise issue and provides a strategy to avoid the use of a global conservative small time step size for the entire set of particles.A novel time stepping algorithm for CFD-DEM solvers using a partitioning approach using orthogonal recursive bisection (ORB) that allows for variable time steps among particles is described and its computational performance is compared against baseline explicit methods, typically used in several CFD-DEM solvers. ORB has advantages of being relatively quick and easy to update incrementally and has the required heuristic behavior (i.e., it will split the region in half with a cluster on each side) when groups of particles are well separated (clustered). The algorithm presented in this work uses a local time stepping approach to resolve collisional time scales for subsets of particles that are present at the leaves of the ORB, thereby resulting in substantial reduction of computational cost. The parallel implementation of this method where a ``knapsack” algorithm is used in tandem with ORB for effective load-balancing is also presented, where a best possible partitioning is obtained based on number of particles and local time-stepping costs. The algorithm is tested against benchmark problems with varying particle distributions that include fluidized bed and riser flow scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that the approach is 2-3X faster than traditional explicit methods for problems that involve both dense and dilute regions, while maintaining the same level of accuracy.

adaptive timestepping↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discovery and Characterization of Two Ultrafaint Dwarfs outside the Halo of the Milky Way: Leo M and Leo K

Abstract We report the discovery of two ultrafaint dwarf galaxies, Leo M and Leo K, that lie outside the halo of the Milky Way (MW). Using Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the resolved stars, we create color–magnitude diagrams reaching the oldest main-sequence turnoff of each system and (i) fit for structural parameters of the galaxies; (ii) measure their distances using the luminosity of the horizontal branch stars; (iii) estimate integrated magnitudes and stellar masses; and (iv) reconstruct the star formation histories. Based on their location in the Local Group, neither galaxy is currently within the halo of the MW although Leo K is located ∼26 kpc from the low-mass galaxy Leo T and these two systems may have had a past interaction. Leo M and Leo K have stellar masses of 1.8 − 0.2 + 0.3 × 10 4 M ⊙ and 1.2 ± 0.2 × 10 4 M ⊙ , and were quenched 10.6 − 1.1 + 2.2 Gyr and 12.8 − 4.2 + 0.1 Gyr ago, respectively. Given that the galaxies are at farther distances from the MW, it is unlikely that they were quenched by environmental processing. Instead, given their low stellar masses, their early quenching timescales are consistent with the scenario that a combination of reionization and stellar feedback shut down star formation at early cosmic times.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2009

New insights into the origin of magnetite crystals in ALH84001 carbonate disks

Martian meteorite ALH84001 preserves evidence of interaction with aqueous fluids while on Mars in the form of microscopic carbonate disks which are believed to have precipitated approximately 3.9 Ga ago at beginning of the Noachian epoch. Intimately associated within and throughout these carbonate disks are nanocrystal magnetites (Fe3O4) with unusual chemical and physical properties, whose origins have become the source of considerable debate. One group of hypotheses argues that these Fe3O4 are the product of partial thermal decomposition of the host carbonate. Alternatively, the origins of Fe3O4 and carbonate may be unrelated; that is, from the perspective of the carbonate the magnetite is allochthonous. We have sought to resolve between these hypotheses through the detailed characterized of the compositional and structural relationships of the carbonate disks and associated magnetites with the orthopyroxene matrix in which they are embedded. We focus this discussion on the composition of ALH84001 magnetites and then compare these observations with those from experimental thermal decomposition studies of sideritic carbonates under a range of plausible geological heating scenarios.

Thomas-Keprta, K. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gravitational waves from current-carrying cosmic strings

Cosmic strings are predicted by many Standard Model extensions involving the cosmological breaking of a symmetry with nontrivial first homotopy group and represent a potential source of primordial gravitational waves (GWs). Present efforts to model the GW signal from cosmic strings are often based on minimal models, such as, e.g., the Nambu-Goto action that describes cosmic strings as exactly one-dimensional objects without any internal structure. In order to arrive at more realistic predictions, it is therefore necessary to consider nonminimal models that make an attempt at accounting for the microscopic properties of cosmic strings. With this goal in mind, we derive in this paper the GW spectrum emitted by current-carrying cosmic strings (CCCSs), which may form in a variety of cosmological scenarios. Our analysis is based on a generalized version of the velocity-dependent one-scale (VOS) model, which, in addition to the mean velocity and correlation length of the string network, also describes the evolution of a chiral (light-like) current. Here we are able to show, the solutions of the VOS equations imply a temporarily growing fractional cosmic-string energy density, Ω cs . This results in an enhanced GW signal across a broad frequency interval, whose boundaries are determined by the times of generation and decay of cosmic-string currents. Our findings have important implications for GW experiments in the Hz to MHz band and motivate the construction of realistic particle physics models that give rise to large currents on cosmic strings.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Origin of Magnetite Crystals in Martian Meteorite ALH84001 Carbonate Disks

Martian meteorite ALH84001 preserves evidence of interaction with aqueous fluids while on Mars in the form of microscopic carbonate disks which are believed to have precipitated approx.3.9 Ga ago at beginning of the Noachian epoch. Intimately associated within and throughout these carbonate disks are nanocrystal magnetites (Fe3O4) with unusual chemical and physical properties, whose origins have become the source of considerable debate. One group of hypotheses argues that these Fe3O4 are the product of partial thermal decomposition of the host carbonate. Alternatively, the origins of Fe3O4 and carbonate may be unrelated; that is, from the perspective of the carbonate the magnetite is allochthonous. We have sought to resolve between these hypotheses through the detailed characterized of the compositional and structural relationships of the carbonate disks and associated magnetites with the orthopyroxene matrix in which they are embedded [1]. We focus this discussion on the composition of ALH84001 magnetites and then compare these observations with those from our thermal decomposition studies of sideritic carbonates under a range of plausible geological heating scenarios.

Thomas-Keprta, K.L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing nuclear data validation analysis by using machine learning

In this work, we demonstrate how machine learning (ML) techniques can be used as an auxiliary tool for nuclear data validation analysis. The output of the ML analysis can inform evaluators and validators on the quality, or lack thereof, of specific nuclear data and benchmark experiments with respect to simulating these experimental benchmark values. To this end, measured and simulated effective neutron multiplication factors, k eff , of 875 selected ICSBEP critical assemblies and the latter's sensitivities with respect to nuclear data as well as benchmarks' features (e.g., material nuclide, core geometry) are used as input for a random forest (RF) regression model. The RF is used to encode the complex inter-dependencies between thousands of nuclear data features (i.e., sensitivity profiles and aspects describing the measurements) and 875 simulated and experimental k eff values in order to understand what nuclear data features are most informative for predicting bias. The complexity of relationships and high-dimensional space is difficult-to-impossible to search fully using simply expert judgment. As a first proof-of-concept—step, it is demonstrated that this technique is able to correctly trace large discrepancies between simulated and experimental k eff back to fabricated shortcomings in nuclear data that were perturbed to simulated k eff values. In a second, real-case scenario, step, the RF algorithm is used to validate the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library in comparison to ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data. One case is showcased where the chosen ML algorithms highlighted nuclear data (the 19 F(n,inl) cross section from 0.4–0.9 MeV) that are shown to be problematic by comparing them to associated differential experimental data and nuclear data from other libraries. In addition to that, it is shown that the RF results point towards poor benchmark experiments and associated underestimated uncertainties (e.g., the PU-SOL-THERM-028 series). However, using the RF algorithm for validating nuclear data with respect to k eff is currently limited to pinpointing groups of questionable nuclear data due to the inherent correlations between features introduced by the nuclear data themselves and how k eff is simulated. Due to this, we recommend that the ML methods presented be used to augment—rather than replace—the expert knowledge of evaluators and validators.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Abstract We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 vs 0.09 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Galaxy formation with wave/fuzzy dark matter: The core-halo structure and the solitonic imprint

Dark matter-dominated cores have long been claimed for the well-studied local group dwarf galaxies. More recently, extended stellar halos have been uncovered around several of these dwarfs through deeper imaging and spectroscopy. Such core-halo structures (inner flat core and a characteristic r −3 asymptotic outer halo profile) are not a feature of conventional cold dark matter (CDM). In contrast, smooth and prominent dark matter cores are predicted for wave/fuzzy dark matter (ψDM). The question arises as to what extent the visible stellar profiles should reflect this dark matter core structure. Here we compare cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of CDM, “WDM” (model used as a proxy for ψDM) & ψDM, aiming to predict the stellar profiles for these three DM scenarios. We show that cores surrounded by extended halos are distinguishable for ψDM, where the stellar density is enhanced in the core due to the presence of the relatively dense soliton. Our analysis demonstrates that, in our simulations, a distinctive core-halo structure does not appear in the case of CDM in the DM, gas, or stars. Whereas we do find a core-halo transition for DM, gas, and stars for ψDM, and the scale of this transition is in line with the predicted core radius set by the soliton scale anticipated for the adopted boson mass of 2.5×10 −22 eV. The presence of a core-halo structure in the stellar profile for Galaxy 1 for ψDM is visible for the most massive and the first galaxy to form in the simulation. Clearly, further simulations are needed to establish how strict this possible relationship is between the DM and stellar core-halo profile as a potential observational discriminator. Furthermore, we observe the anticipated asymmetry for ψDM due to the soliton's motion (jumping and random walk), a distinctive characteristic not found in the symmetric distributions of stars in the warm and CDM models.

dark matter↗

DOE OSTI2025

New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.

Gomes, Dylan G. E. (ORCID:0000000226423728)↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Divnoe meteorite: Petrology, chemistry, oxygen isotopes and origin

The Divnoe meteorite is an olivine-rich primitive achondrite with subchondritic chemistry and mineralogy. It has a granoblastic, coarse-grained, olivine groundmass (CGL: coarse-grained lithology) with relatively large pyroxene-plagioclase poiklitic patches (PP) and small fine-grained domains of an opaque-rich lithology (ORL). Both PP and ORL are inhomogeneously distributed and display reaction boundaries with the groundmass. Major silicates, olivine Fa(20-28) and orthopyroxyene Fs(20-28 Wo(0.5-2.5), display systematic differences in composition between CGL and ORL as well as a complicated pattern of variations within CGL. Accessory plagioclase has low K content and displays regular igneous zoning with core compositions An(40-45) and rims An(32-37). The bulk chemical composition of Divnoe is similar to that of olivine-rich primitive achondrites, except for a depletion of incompatible elements and minor enrichment of refractory siderophiles. Oxygen isotope compositions for whole-rock and separated minerals from Divnoe fall in a narrow range, with mean delta O-18 = +4.91, delta O-17 = +2.24, and Delta O-17 = -0.26 +/- 0.11. The isotopic composition is not within the range of any previously recognized group but is very close to that of the brachinites. To understand the origin of Divnoe lithologies, partial melting and crystallization were modelled using starting compositions equal to that of Divnoe and some chondritic meteorites. It was found that the Divnoe composition could be derived from a chondritic source region by approximately 20 wt% partial melting at Ta approximately 1300 C and log(fO2) = IW-1.8, followed by approximtely 60 wt% crystallization of the partial melt formed, and removal of the still-liquid portion of the partial melt. Removal of the last partial melt resulted in depletion of the Divnoe plagioclase in Na and K. In this scenario, CGL represents the residue of partial melting, and PP is a portion of the partial melt that crystallized in situ. The ORL was formed during the final stages of partial melting by reaction between gaseous sulfur and residual olivine in the source region. A prominent feature of Divnoe is fine micron-scale chemical variations within olivine grains, related to lamellar structures the olivines display. The origin of these structures is not known.

Petaev, M. I.↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

NASA NTRS2017

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

climate models↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Investigation of Aerogravity Assist at Titan and Triton for Capture into Orbit About Saturn and Neptune

Previous work by our group has shown that an aerogravity assist maneuver at the moon Titan could be used to capture a spacecraft into a closed orbit about Saturn if a nominal atmospheric profile at Titan is assumed. The present study extends that work and examines the impact of atmospheric dispersions, variations in the final target orbit and low density aerodynamics on the aerocapture maneuver. Accounting for atmospheric dispersions substantially reduces the entry corridor width for a blunt configuration with a lift-to-drag ratio of 0.25. Moreover, the choice of the outbound hyperbolic excess speed (with respect to Titan) strongly influences the corridor width. Given the influence of these two parameters, certain mission scenarios may be feasible using a blunt aeroshell, while other mission designs would likely require a biconic vehicle with a higher lift-to-drag ratio. Preliminary simulations indicate that the same technique may be feasible for capture into orbit about Neptune using the tenuous atmosphere of Triton.

Ramsey, Philip↗