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At least 505 records · Page 28

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the impact of the galaxy window function on cosmological parameter estimation

One important source of systematics in galaxy redshift surveys comes from the estimation of the galaxy window function. Up until now, the impact of the uncertainty in estimating the galaxy window function on parameter inference has not been properly studied. In this paper, we show that the uncertainty and the bias in estimating the galaxy window function will be salient for ongoing and next-generation galaxy surveys using a simulation-based approach. With a specific case study of cross-correlating emission-line galaxies from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys and the Planck cosmic microwave background lensing map, we show that neural network-based regression approaches to modelling the window function are superior in comparison to linear regression-based models. Here, we additionally show that the definition of the galaxy overdensity estimator can impact the overall signal-to-noise of observed power spectra. Finally, we show that the additive biases coming from the window functions can significantly bias the modes of the inferred parameters and also degrade their precision. Thus, a careful understanding of the window functions will be essential to conduct cosmological experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A generative artificial intelligence framework based on a molecular diffusion model for the design of metal-organic frameworks for carbon capture

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) exhibit great promise for CO 2 capture. However, finding the best performing materials poses computational and experimental grand challenges in view of the vast chemical space of potential building blocks. Here, we introduce GHP-MOFassemble, a generative artificial intelligence (AI), high performance framework for the rational and accelerated design of MOFs with high CO 2 adsorption capacity and synthesizable linkers. GHP-MOFassemble generates novel linkers, assembled with one of three pre-selected metal nodes (Cu paddlewheel, Zn paddlewheel, Zn tetramer) into MOFs in a primitive cubic topology. GHP-MOFassemble screens and validates AI-generated MOFs for uniqueness, synthesizability, structural validity, uses molecular dynamics simulations to study their stability and chemical consistency, and crystal graph neural networks and Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulations to quantify their CO 2 adsorption capacities. We present the top six AI-generated MOFs with CO 2 capacities greater than 2m mol g -1 , i.e., higher than 96.9% of structures in the hypothetical MOF dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mining Product Reviews for Important Product Features of Refurbished iPhones

Problem: Remanufacturers want to increase consumer interest in refurbished products, which motivates the need to understand which product features are important to buyers of refurbished products such as mobile phones. Research Questions: This study addresses two questions. First, which product features are most important for buyers of refurbished iPhones? Second, how do those preferences differ from the preferences of buyers of new iPhones? Methods: Online reviews of iPhones are obtained and converted into a document–term matrix. Using this text model, three subsets of features are identified using statistical analysis of frequency of mention: most frequent, average, and least frequent. A logistic regression (LR) model is then used to identify which features are most predictive of whether a review is for a new or refurbished phone. Results: Buyers of refurbished phones mention battery health, screen/display, shell condition, and brand significantly more often than other features. Directly contrasting reviews of refurbished versus new phones shows that shell condition, brand, speaker, and charger are found to be the most predictive product features indicated in reviews for refurbished phones. Of those, the shell condition is significantly more predictive than the others. Implications: The results identify product features that remanufacturers of iPhones can emphasize to increase customer demand.

Anisi, Atefeh↗

AI-Based EMT Dynamic Model of PV Systems

Several electromagnetic transient (EMT) dynamic modeling methods are available to model systems like photovoltaic (PV) plants, wind power plants, variable-speed drives, among others. The methods include: (a) physics-based models and (b) data-driven models. The physics-based dynamic models may include high-fidelity switched system model and average-value model that both require the control algorithms included in the models. However, manufacturers typically prefer to provide black-box models to avoid disclosing proprietary. One of the solutions to prevent disclosing control algorithms is the use of data-driven dynamic EMT models of PV systems. In this paper, data-driven dynamic EMT model based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are presented. The AI algorithms evaluated include convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model. Automation in generating data and training these models is also discussed in this paper. The results generated by the best AI algorithms have been observed to be greater than 95 % accurate.

Debnath, Suman↗

Remote Americium Detection Using an Optical Sensor: A D-Optimal Strategy for Efficient PLS-Based Modeling

A fiber-optic visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy system in a glove box was demonstrated for remote quantification of Am(III) (0–500 µM) and HNO 3 (0.1–9 M) using partial least squares regression (PLSR) models. The sensor platform, featuring a simple plug-and-play spectrophotometer, can enable noninvasive, real-time monitoring of actinide process solutions. To establish a flexible PLSR model calibration strategy, a D-optimal design developed using Nd(III) in previous studies was successfully extended to an actinide system with Am(III) to effectively minimize sample set size while maintaining robust prediction performance. The results suggest strong spectral similarities between Nd(III) and Am(III) and validate Nd(III) as an effective optical surrogate for trivalent actinide species. This work also supports the generalizability of a D-optimal training set selection approach for two-factor systems. The PLS1 models for Am(III) and HNO 3 outperformed a PLS2 model and maintained reasonable performance in the presence of interfering U(VI). The resulting sensor system and multivariate approach provides a flexible and scalable solution for process monitoring, control, and safety in diverse nuclear applications.

actinide↗

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗

Comparison of Spectroscopic Techniques for Determining the Peroxide Value of 19 Classes of Naturally Aged, Plant-Based Edible Oils

The peroxide value of edible oils is a measure of the degree of oxidation, which directly relates to the freshness of the oil sample. Several studies previously reported in the literature have paired various spectroscopic techniques with multivariate analyses to rapidly determine peroxide values using field portable and process instrumentation; those efforts presented “best-case scenarios” with oils from narrowly defined training and test sets. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the use of near- and mid-infrared absorption and Raman scattering spectroscopies on oil samples from different oil classes, including seasonal and vendor variations, to determine which measurement technique or combination thereof is best for predicting peroxide values. Following peroxide value assays of each oil class using an established titration-based method, global and global-subset calibration models were constructed from spectroscopic data collected on the 19 oil classes used in this study. Spectra from each optical technique were used to create partial least squares regression calibration models to predict the peroxide value of unknown oil samples. A global peroxide value model based on near-infrared (8 mm optical path length) oil measurements produced the lowest RMSEP (4.9), followed by 24 mm optical path length near infrared (5.1), Raman (6.9) and 50 µm optical path length mid-infrared (7.3). However, it was determined that the Raman RMSEP resulted from chance correlations. Global peroxide value models based on low-level fusion of the NIR (8 and 24 mm optical path length) data and all infrared data produced the same RMSEP of 5.1. Global subset models, based on any of the spectroscopies and olive oil training sets from any class (pure, extra light, extra virgin), all failed to extrapolate to the non-olive oils. However, the near-infrared global subset model built on extra virgin olive oil could extrapolate to test samples from other olive oil classes. This work demonstrates the difficulty of developing a truly global method for determining peroxide value of oils.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Operation and Optimization of Microwave-Heated Continuous-Flow Microfluidics

Microwave (MW) technology can be powerful for electrification and process intensification but limited fundamental understanding of scalability and design principles hinders its effective use. In this work, we build a continuous-flow microreactor inside a commercial single-mode MW applicator and the corresponding computational fluid dynamics model to simulate the temperature profile. The model is in good agreement with experiments for various microreactor dimensions and operating conditions. The model indicates that MW heating is greatly influenced by reactor geometry as well as the operating parameters. We observe a strong correlation between parameters and develop a gradient boost regression tree model to predict the outlet temperature accurately. This model is then applied to optimize the dimensions and operating conditions to maximize the outlet temperature and energy efficiency, resulting in a Pareto optimal. We demonstrate computationally and experimentally that it is possible to surpass the Pareto optimal and achieve an energy efficiency of ~90% or greater at temperatures relevant for liquid-phase chemistry via salting of the solvent. The present methodology can be applied to other complex MW reactors. Lastly, the combined numerical and experimental approach provides insights into and a framework for scale-up and optimization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Urban Flood Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification and Physics‐Informed Gaussian Processes Regression Forecasting

Abstract Estimating uncertainty in flood model predictions is important for many applications, including risk assessment and flood forecasting. We focus on uncertainty in physics‐based urban flooding models. We consider the effects of the model's complexity and uncertainty in key input parameters. The effect of rainfall intensity on the uncertainty in water depth predictions is also studied. As a test study, we choose the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model of a part of the city of Minneapolis. The uncertainty in the ICPR model's predictions of the floodwater depth is quantified in terms of the ensemble variance using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. Our results show that uncertainties in the studied domain are highly localized. Model simplifications, such as disregarding the groundwater flow, lead to overly confident predictions, that is, predictions that are both less accurate and uncertain than those of the more complex model. We find that for the same number of uncertain parameters, increasing the model resolution reduces uncertainty in the model predictions (and increases the MC method's computational cost). We employ the multilevel MC method to reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in a high‐resolution ICPR model. Finally, we use the ensemble estimates of the mean and covariance of the flood depth for real‐time flood depth forecasting using the physics‐informed Gaussian process regression method. We show that even with few measurements, the proposed framework results in a more accurate forecast than that provided by the mean prediction of the ICPR model.

Kohanpur, Amir H.↗

Rapid and high-throughput determination of sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) biomass composition using near infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics

Compositional characterization of biomass is vital for the biofuel industry. Traditional wet chemistry-based methods for analyzing biomass composition are laborious, time-consuming, and require extensive use of chemical reagents as well as highly skilled personnel. In this study, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to quickly assess the composition of above-ground vegetative biomass from 113 diverse, photoperiod-sensitive, biomass-type sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) accessions cultivated under field conditions in Central Illinois. Biomass samples were analyzed using NIR spectra collected in the spectral range of 867–2536 nm, with their chemical compositions determined following the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) protocol. Advanced spectral pre-treatment and band selection techniques were utilized to develop calibration models using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The models’ effectiveness was assessed through cross-validation and independent data tests. The predictions for moisture, ash, extractives, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin were accurate and reliable, demonstrating the capability of NIR spectroscopy to provide rapid and precise characterization of sorghum biomass. The results demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy is an efficient tool for rapidly characterizing sorghum biomass, making it a sustainable option for screening desirable feedstock for biofuel or bioproduct production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Machine Learning Surrogates of a Fuel Matrix Degradation Process Model for Performance Assessment of a Nuclear Waste Repository

Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Further, using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO 3 2- , O 2 , Fe 2+ , and H 2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO 2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Data for Rapid and High-Throughput Determination of Sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) Biomass Composition using Near Infrared Spectroscopy and Chemometrics

Compositional characterization of biomass is vital for the biofuel industry. Traditional wet chemistry-based methods for analyzing biomass composition are laborious, time-consuming, and require extensive use of chemical reagents as well as highly skilled personnel. In this study, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to quickly assess the composition of above-ground vegetative biomass from 113 diverse, photoperiod-sensitive, biomass-type sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) accessions cultivated under field conditions in Central Illinois. Biomass samples were analyzed using NIR spectra collected in the spectral range of 867–2536 nm, with their chemical compositions determined following the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) protocol. Advanced spectral pre-treatment and band selection techniques were utilized to develop calibration models using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The models’ effectiveness was assessed through cross-validation and independent data tests. The predictions for moisture, ash, extractives, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin were accurate and reliable, demonstrating the capability of NIR spectroscopy to provide rapid and precise characterization of sorghum biomass. The results demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy is an efficient tool for rapidly characterizing sorghum biomass, making it a sustainable option for screening desirable feedstock for biofuel or bioproduct production.

Biomass Analytics↗

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The executive disruption model of tinnitus distress: Model validation in two independent datasets using factor score regression

This study presents the executive disruption model (EDM) of tinnitus distress and subsequently validates it statistically using two independent datasets (the Construction Dataset: n = 96 and the Validation Dataset: n = 200). The conceptual EDM was first operationalised as a structural causal model (construction phase). Then multiple regression was used to examine the effect of executive functioning on tinnitus-related distress (validation phase), adjusting for the additional contributions of hearing threshold and psychological distress. For both datasets, executive functioning negatively predicted tinnitus distress score by a similar amount (the Construction Dataset: β = −3.50, p = 0.13 and the Validation Dataset: β = −3.71, p = 0.02). Theoretical implications and applications of the EDM are subsequently discussed; these include the predictive nature of executive functioning in the development of distressing tinnitus, and the clinical utility of the EDM.

Clarke, Nathan A.↗

Machine learning of Kondo physics using variational autoencoders and symbolic regression

In this work, we employ variational autoencoders to extract physical insight from a dataset of one-particle Anderson impurity model spectral functions. Autoencoders are trained to find a low-dimensional, latent space representation that faithfully characterizes each element of the training set, as measured by a reconstruction error. Variational autoencoders, a probabilistic generalization of standard autoencoders, further condition the learned latent space to promote highly interpretable features. In our study, we find that the learned latent variables strongly correlate with well known, but nontrivial, parameters that characterize emergent behaviors in the Anderson impurity model. In particular, one latent variable correlates with particle-hole asymmetry, while another is in near one-to-one correspondence with the Kondo temperature, a dynamically generated low-energy scale in the impurity model. Using symbolic regression, we model this variable as a function of the known bare physical input parameters and "rediscover" the nonperturbative formula for the Kondo temperature. The machine learning pipeline we develop suggests a general purpose approach, which opens opportunities to discover new domain knowledge in other physical systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Deconvoluting thermomechanical effects in X-ray diffraction data using machine learning

X-ray diffraction is ideal for probing the sub-surface state during complex or rapid thermomechanical loading of crystalline materials. However, challenges arise as the size of diffraction volumes increases due to spatial broadening and because of the inability to deconvolute the effects of different lattice deformation mechanisms. Here, we present a novel approach that uses combinations of physics-based modeling and machine learning to deconvolve thermal and mechanical elastic strains for diffraction data analysis. The method builds on a previous effort to extract thermal strain distribution information from diffraction data. The new approach is applied to extract the evolution of the thermomechanical state during laser melting of an Inconel 625 wall specimen which produces significant residual stress upon cooling. A combination of heat transfer and fluid flow, elasto-plasticity and X-ray diffraction simulations is used to generate training data for machine-learning (Gaussian process regression, GPR) models that map diffracted intensity distributions to underlying thermomechanical strain fields. First-principles density functional theory is used to determine accurate temperature-dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness used for elasto-plasticity modeling. The trained GPR models are found to be capable of deconvoluting the effects of thermal and mechanical strains, in addition to providing information about underlying strain distributions, even from complex diffraction patterns with irregularly shaped peaks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗