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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Atomic Bonding Plays the Hardness Behavior in the Al–Co–Cr–Cu–Fe–Ni High Entropy Family

A systematic study on a face-centered cubic-based compositionally complex alloy system Al–Co–Cr–Cu–Fe–Ni in its single-phase state is carried out, where a mother senary compound Al 8 Co 17 Cr 17 Cu 8 Fe 17 Ni 33 and five of its suballoys, obtained by removing one element at a time, are investigated and exhaustively analyzed determining the contribution of each alloying element in the solid solution. The senary and the quinaries are compared using experimental techniques including X-ray absorption spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and first principles hybrid Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics simulations. Chemical short-range order and bond length distances have been determined both at the experimental and computational level. Electronic structure and local atomic distortions up to 5.2 Å have been correlated to the microhardness values. A linear regression model connecting hardness with local lattice distortions is presented.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting fatigue from heart rate signatures using functional logistic regression

Physical fatigue can have adverse effects on humans in extreme environments. Therefore, being able to predict fatigue using easy to measure metrics such as heart rate (HR) signatures has potential to have an impact in real-life scenarios. We apply a functional logistic regression model that uses HR signatures to predict physical fatigue, where physical fatigue is defined in a data-driven manner. Data were collected using commercially available wearable devices on 47 participants hiking the 20.7-mile Grand Canyon rim-to-rim trail in a single day. Fitted model provides good predictions and interpretable parameters for real-life application.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dietary B group vitamin intake and the bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies

Abstract Purpose Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). The B group complex vitamins involve diverse biological functions that could be influential in cancer prevention. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between various components of the B group vitamin complex and BC risk. Methods Dietary data were pooled from four cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of B group vitamins and pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using Cox-regression models. Dose–response relationships were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. Results In total, 2915 BC cases and 530,012 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an increased BC risk for moderate intake of vitamin B1 (HR B1 : 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00–1.20). In men, moderate intake of the vitamins B1, B2, energy-related vitamins and high intake of vitamin B1 were associated with an increased BC risk (HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.02–1.26), 1.14 (1.02–1.26), 1.13 (1.02–1.26; 1.13 (1.02–1.26), respectively). In women, high intake of all vitamins and vitamin combinations, except for the entire complex, showed an inverse association (HR (95% CI): 0.80 (0.67–0.97), 0.83 (0.70–1.00); 0.77 (0.63–0.93), 0.73 (0.61–0.88), 0.82 (0.68–0.99), 0.79 (0.66–0.95), 0.80 (0.66–0.96), 0.74 (0.62–0.89), 0.76 (0.63–0.92), respectively). Dose–response analyses showed an increased BC risk for higher intake of vitamin B1 and B12. Conclusion Our findings highlight the importance of future research on the food sources of B group vitamins in the context of the overall and sex-stratified diet.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Association of small vessel disease with tau pathology

Emerging evidence suggests that small vessel disease (SVD) is a risk factor for clinical dementia and may contribute to AD neuropathological changes. Watershed brain regions are located at the most distal areas between arterial territories, making them vulnerable to SVD-related changes. We examined the association of pathologic markers of SVD, specifically arteriolosclerosis in watershed brain regions, with AD pathologic changes. Participants (N= 982; mean age-at-death = 90; 69% women) were enrolled as part of one of two cohort studies of aging and dementia. At autopsy, neuropathological evaluation included semi-quantitative grading of arteriolosclerosis pathology from 2 cortical watershed regions: the anterior watershed (AWS) and posterior watershed (PWS), densities for cortical β-amyloid and tau-tangle pathology, and other common age-related pathologies. Linear regression models examined the association of watershed arteriolosclerosis pathology with β-amyloid and tau-tangle burden. In follow-up analyses, available ex-vivo MRI and proteomics data in a subset of decedents were leveraged to examine the association of whole brain measure of WMH, as a presumed MRI marker of SVD, with β-amyloid and tau-tangle burden, as well as to examine the association of watershed arteriolosclerosis with proteomic tau. Watershed arteriolosclerosis was common, with 45% of older persons having moderate-to-severe arteriolosclerosis pathology in the AWS region, and 35% in the PWS. In fully adjusted models that controlled for demographics and common age-related pathologies, an increase in severity of PWS arteriolosclerosis was associated with a higher burden of tau-tangle burden, specifically neocortical tau burden, but not with β-amyloid. AWS arteriolosclerosis was not associated with β-amyloid or tau pathology. Ex-vivo WMH was associated with greater tau-tangle pathology burden but not β-amyloid. Furthermore, PWS arteriolosclerosis was associated with higher abundance of tau phosphopeptides, that promote formation of tau aggregates. These data provide compelling evidence that SVD, specifically posterior watershed arteriolosclerosis pathology, is linked with tau pathological changes in the aging brain.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Virtual sensing of wind turbine hub loads and drivetrain fatigue damage, Virtuelle Sensoren für die Messung von Hauptwellenlasten und Ermüdungsschäden im Antriebstrang von Windenergieanlagen

Abstract: This paper presents a Digital Twin for virtual sensing of wind turbine aerodynamic hub loads, as well as monitoring the accumulated fatigue damage and remaining useful life in drivetrain bearings based on measurements of the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and the drivetrain condition monitoring system (CMS). The aerodynamic load estimation is realized with data-driven regression models, while the estimation of local bearing loads and damage is conducted with physics-based, analytical models. Field measurements of the DOE 1.5 research turbine are used for model training and validation. The results show low errors of 6.4% and 1.1% in the predicted damage at the main and the generator side high-speed bearing respectively. Zusammenfassung: In diesem Aufsatz wird ein digitaler Zwilling für Windenergieanlagen vorgestellt, welcher die virtuelle Erfassung der Hauptwellenlasten und die Zustandsüberwachung von Ermüdungschäden und der verbleibende Nutzungsdauer der Antriebsstranglager ermöglicht. Der digital Zwilling nutzt Messdaten des Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) Systems und des Zustandsüberwachungssystems des Antriebsstranges (CMS). Die Berechnung der Hauptwellenlasten ist mit datenbasierten Regressionsmodellen umgesetzt, während die Berechnung der Lagerkräfte und der Ermüdungsschaden mit physikbasierten Modelle durchgeführt wird. Für die Modellentwicklung und -validierung werden Feldmessdaten der DOE 1.5MW Turbine eingesetzt. Die Abweichungen in den Ermüdungsschäden am Hauptwellenlager und am Generatorwellenlager betragen lediglich 6,4% beziehungsweise 1,1%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Closed-Loop Optimization of an Automated Mechanical Serial-Sectioning System via Run-to-Run Control as Applied to a Robo-Met.3D

Optimization of automated data collection is gaining increased interest for the purposes of enabling closed-loop self-correcting systems that inherently maximize operational efficiencies and reduce waste. Many data collection systems have several variables which influence data accuracy or consistency and which can require frequent user interaction to be monitored and maintained. Operating upon a Robo-MET.3D™ automated mechanical serial-sectioning system, a run-to-run control algorithm has been developed to accelerate data collection and reduce data inconsistency. Here, using historical data amassed over a decade of experiments, a linear regression model of the deterministic system dynamics is created and used to employ a run-to-run control algorithm that optimizes selected system inputs to reduce operator intervention and increase efficacy while reducing variance of system output.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System

Abstract Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 10 5 ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ( $${54}_{-14}^{+5}$$ 54 - 14 + 5 %, or ~ 50 × 10 5 ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was $${63}_{-3}^{+2}$$ 63 - 3 + 2 %, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of $${5}_{-5}^{+16}$$ 5 - 5 + 16 % and $${4}_{-6}^{+14}$$ 4 - 6 + 14 %, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Convergence of Hyperbolic Neural Networks Under Riemannian Stochastic Gradient Descent

Abstract We prove, under mild conditions, the convergence of a Riemannian gradient descent method for a hyperbolic neural network regression model, both in batch gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent. We also discuss a Riemannian version of the Adam algorithm. We show numerical simulations of these algorithms on various benchmarks.

Whiting, Wes (ORCID:0000000247505060)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production

There are growing needs to understand how extreme weather events impact the electrical grid. Renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaics are expanding in use to help sustainably meet electricity demands. Wildfires and, notably, the widespread smoke resulting from them, are one such extreme event that can impair the performance of solar photovoltaics. However, isolating the impact that smoke has on photovoltaic energy production, separate from ambient conditions, can be difficult. In this work, we seek to understand and quantify the impacts of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production within the Western United States. Our analysis focuses on the construction of a random forest regression model to predict overall solar photovoltaic production. The model is used to separate and quantify the impacts of wildfire smoke in particular. To do so, we fuse historical weather, solar photovoltaic energy production, and PM2.5 particulate matter (primary smoke pollutant) data to train and test our model. The additional weather data allows us to capture interactions between wildfire smoke and other ambient conditions, as well as to create a more powerful predictive model capable of better quantifying the impacts of wildfire smoke on its own. We find that solar PV energy production decreases 8.3% on average during high smoke days at PV sites as compared to similar conditions without smoke present. Finally, this work allows us to improve our understanding of the potential impact on photovoltaic-based energy production estimates due to wildfire events and can help inform grid and operational planning as solar photovoltaic penetration levels continue to grow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Household energy resilience in extreme weather events: An investigation of energy service importance, HVAC usage behaviors, and willingness to pay

Household energy resilience, particularly maintaining essential energy services within an acceptable and affordable level, is critical during extreme weather events (e.g., winter storms, heat waves) with power shortages or outages. However, the research on the importance and acceptable compromise levels of energy services, HVAC usage behavior changes, and willingness to pay (WTP) for energy services during disasters is limited. Therefore, this study investigates the importance and compromise of household energy services, HVAC usage behaviors, and WTP, as three key dimensions of household energy resilience, in both normal days and disaster scenarios through surveys (n=485). First, 12 common residential end-uses are grouped into high, mid, and low-priority services using hierarchical clustering, in which high-priority services (perceived as important and un-compromisable) include food cooking and storage (refrigerator and freezer) and thermal comfort (space heating and cooling), mid-priority services involve water heating and lighting, while low-priority services are mostly related to entertainment and housework (e.g., TV, laundry). Also, HVAC use patterns demonstrate that occupants become more energy conservative during disasters, e.g., reducing durations of running HVAC and adjusting temperature setpoints to save energy. In terms of energy cost, approximately 60% of respondents are willing to pay more to maintain energy services during disasters, although only 13% are prepared to pay over double the normal energy prices. The regression models further reveal that household energy resilience varies across different sociodemographic groups (e.g., age, income, family size) and is impacted by disaster experience and beliefs in clean energy and climate. In conclusion, these research findings provide important perspectives to understand household energy resilience and inform measures for disaster adaptation of households in extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variations in cell wall traits impact saccharification potential of Salix famelica and Salix eriocephala

Increasing global populations, finite arable land, and the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere are driving the search for bio-based alternatives to the petroleum-derived fuels and chemicals that underpin the global economy. With rapid growth rates, a propensity for coppicing, and a wide geographic range across Canada, native shrub willows (Salix spp.) are an attractive source of low-input, high-volume biomass. To date, most willow research has focused on increasing yields and improving cropping systems, while comparatively little work has been done to assess the intrinsic diversity in cell wall traits and bioenergy potential. In this study, we characterized the cell wall composition and wood ultrastructure of 338 xylem samples from two Canadian willow species, Salix famelica and Salix eriocephala, harvested from a common garden experimental plot. Lignin content ranged from 17.5–25.1% in S. famelica and 18.6–24.3% in S. eriocephala. Following alkali pretreatment with 62.5 mM NaOH at 90 °C for 3 h and a 70-h enzymatic digestion with Accellerase 1000, glucose release ranged from 23.0–38.9 wt% in S. famelica and from 20.5–37.7 wt% in S. eriocephala, while xylose release ranged from 9.4–14.9% in S. famelica and from 9.5–15.2% in S. eriocephala. Here, partial least squares regression modelling showed that lignin content and composition were important negative regulators of glucose release. Overall, this work highlights the innate variability in cell wall traits of native willows and identifies potential genotypes that should be considered in future breeding and deployment strategies for Canadian bioenergy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CO2 partial pressure and fluxes in the Amazon River Plume using in situ and remote sensing data

Estimations of the global carbon budget include a quantitative understanding of the evolving processes that occur along river-to-ocean gradients. However, high spatiotemporal resolution observations of these processes are limited. Here we present in situ measurements of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) made through the Amazon River plume (ARP) during different discharge seasons, from 2010-2012. We evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of pCO2 using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite observations for each hydrologic period in the ARP. Regression models were used to estimate pCO2 at the ARP for the period of 2010-2014. From these distributions we calculated sea-air gas exchange of CO2 between the plume waters and the atmosphere (F_co2^sea). Intra-annual variability of F_co2^sea was related to discharge at the river mouth and ocean currents as well as trade winds in the plume. Climatic events during the study period had a significant impact on the F_co2^sea. Including the plume area closer to the river mouth makes the ARP a net source of CO2 with an annual net sea-air flux of 8.6 ±7.1 Tg C y-1 from 2011-2014.

Amazon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

What to expect when you're expecting engagement: Delivering procedural justice in large-scale solar energy deployment

Community engagement in the planning process to build large-scale solar (LSS) projects can win local support and advance procedural justice. However, an understanding of community engagement in current LSS development is lacking. Using responses from a U.S. nationwide survey (n = 979) of residential neighbors living within 3 miles (4.8 km) of completed LSS projects (i.e. “solar neighbors”) and project details from the U.S. Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database (USPVDB), this study seeks to answer the following questions: How are solar neighbors' perceptions of community engagement associated with their attitudes toward their LSS projects? How do solar neighbors' perceptions of community engagement compare to their expectations? And, how do neighbors explain what they perceived about the planning process? We answer these questions using mixed methods, including regression modeling, a new gap analysis technique, and qualitative coding. We find that higher perceived engagement is associated with more positive attitudes toward the project, even when controlling for respondents who acted in opposition. Supporters and opponents alike expect more engagement than they perceived and information about projects both before construction and after operation is lacking. Awareness and engagement expectations increase at certain project size and proximity thresholds. However, most neighbors expect the public to offer input during engagement, but not make decisions. We contextualize these findings with explanatory comments from respondents.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental exposure to industrial air pollution is associated with decreased male fertility

Objective: To understand how chronic exposure to industrial air pollution is associated with male fertility through semen parameters. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction cohort who underwent a semen analysis 2005-2017 with ≥1 measured semen parameter (N=21,563). Intervention(s): Residential histories for each man were constructed using locations from administrative records linked through the Utah Population Database. Industrial facilities with air emissions of nine endocrine disrupting compound chemical classes were identified from the Environmental Protection Agency Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators microdata. Chemical levels were linked with residential histories for the 5 years prior to each semen analysis. Main Outcome Measures: Semen analyses were classified as azoospermic or oligozoospermic (< 15 M/mL) using World Health Organization cutoffs for concentration. Bulk semen parameters such as concentration, total count, ejaculate volume, total motility, total motile count, and total progressive motile count were also measured. Multivariable regression models with robust standard errors were used to associate exposure quartiles for each of the nine chemical classes with each semen parameter, adjusting for age, race, and ethnicity, as well as neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage. Results: After adjustment for demographic covariates, several chemical classes were associated with azoospermia and decreased total motility and volume. For exposure in the 4th relative to 1st quartile, significant associations were observed for acrylonitrile (β total motility = -0.87 pp), aromatic hydrocarbons (odds ratio [OR]azoospermia = 1.53; β volume = -0.14 mL), dioxins (OR azoospermia = 1.31; β volume = -0.09 mL; β total motility = -2.65 pp), heavy metals (β total motility = -2.78pp), organic solvents (OR azoospermia = 1.75; β volume = -0.10 mL), organochlorines (OR azoospermia = 2.09; β volume = -0.12 mL), phthalates (OR azoospermia = 1.44; β volume = -0.09 mL; β total motility = -1.21 pp), and silver particles (OR azoospermia = 1.64; β volume = -0.11 mL). All semen parameters significantly decreased with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage. Men who lived in the most disadvantaged areas had concentration, volume, and total motility of 6.70 M/mL, 0.13 mL, and 1.79 pp lower, respectively. Count, motile count, and total progressive motile count all decreased by 30–34 M.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the Determinants of Household Capabilities Burden During Power Outages: The Case of Winter Storm Uri

Existing research primarily uses census data to identify the vulnerability of communities to hazards. These vulnerability indices provide aggregated data and are not hazard-specific nor well-validated with post-event data. In contrast, our study uses household survey data (n=1065) to understand which Texan households suffered the greatest loss of their capabilities due to power outages and other utility service disruptions during Winter Storm Uri. Inspired by the Capabilities Approach, our measures of burden include the number of household capability types disrupted during the outages (e.g., cooking, heating, refrigeration), the severity of impact for each disrupted capability, and the additional time and financial costs of coping with these disruptions. We perform a clustering analysis, and find two distinct groups in our data, consisting of ‘lesser burden' and ‘heavier burden' households. Results indicate that the households experiencing the heaviest capabilities burden were most likely to experience longer power outages and the loss of water services. They were also more likely to have a Hispanic-Latino household member, lack access to a generator, live in a rented home, have larger households with more young children, fewer adults over 65, lower household incomes, been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and more family characteristics that made life harder. We also fit a logistic regression model to assess the role of outage, household, and community characteristics in predicting differences in capabilities burden. Our results offer insights into enumerating the consequences of utility service disruptions on households, which can inform more targeted and equitable resilience strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗