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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Threshold charmonium photoproduction with GlueX

Exclusive charmonium photoproduction near threshold opens the door for studying the gluonic properties of the proton: gluonic GPDs, anomalous contribution to the mass of the proton, gravitational form factors, the mass radius of the proton. However, such an ambitious program requires precise measurements to validate the theoretical assumptions that relate the experimental results to the above quantities. The first total cross-section measurements of near-threshold exclusive J/? photoproduction (?p?J/?p) by the GlueX collaboration sparked remarkable theoretical interest, however had limited statistics. We will report new total cross-section results based on more than a four-fold increase in statistics. Even more, due to the full acceptance of the GlueX experiment for this reaction, we will present first measurements of the differential cross-sections over the whole near-threshold kinematic region. Such measurements enable more general conclusions about the reaction mechanism when compared to a wide range of theoretical predictions including GPD calculations and models with open-charm intermediate states.

Pentchev, Lubomir↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predictions of zonal wind and angular momentum by the NMC medium-range forecast model during 1985-89

This paper investigates the quality of weather predictions of the atmosphere's relative angular momentum (M) made by the most recent version of the NMC medium-range forecast model (MRF88) during December 1985-1989. It was found that, compared with older versions of MRF, bias errors in the MRF88 forecasts of M became more prominent, while random errors were not affected. Both types of errors in the M forecasts could be traced to problems with forecasts in the zonal mean zonal wind in the tropics.

Rosen, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Prediction of the flow-field interference induced by the long-range laser velocimeter in the Ames 40- by 80-foot and the 80- by 120-foot wind tunnels

The predicted flow disturbances induced in the test sections of the Ames 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnels by the presence of the Long-Range Laser Velocimeter (LRLV) are presented. The predictions were made using a potential-flow paneling code to model the test section and the LRLV, and a calculation of the resulting flow field was made. The flow velocity and angularity were calculated at numerous locations in the flow field relative to the LRLV, and the results are presented.

Reinath, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard

In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on evaluating the influence of ice mass changes since the end of the little Ice Age, the study is partially motivated by paleoseismic evidence from Yakataga and Kodiak regions which suggests that earlier glacier retreat may be associated with large earthquakes [Sauber et al., 2000; Carver et al., 2003].

Sauber, J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

DNA Repair Domain Modeling Can Predict Cell Death and Mutation Frequency for Wide Range Spectrum of Radiation

Exploration missions to Mars and other destinations raise many questions about the health of astronauts. The continuous exposure of astronauts to galactic cosmic rays is one of the main concerns for long-term missions. Cosmic ionizing radiations are composed of different ions of various charges and energies notably, highly charged energy (HZE) particles. The HZE particles have been shown to be more carcinogenic than low-LET radiation, suggesting the severity of chromosomal aberrations induced by HZE particles is one possible explanation. However, most mathematical models predicting cell death and mutation frequency are based on directly fitting various HZE dose response and are in essence empirical approaches. In this work, we assume a simple biological mechanism to model DNA repair and use it to simultaneously explain the low- and high-LET response using the exact same fitting parameters. Our work shows that the geometrical position of DNA repair along tracks of heavy ions are sufficient to explain why high-LET particles can induce more death and mutations. Our model is based on assuming DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) are repaired within repair domain, and that any DSBs located within the same repair domain cluster into one repair unit, facilitating chromosomal rearrangements and increasing the probability of cell death. We introduced this model in 2014 using simplified microdosimetry profiles to predict cell death. In this work, we collaborated with NASA Johnson Space Center to generate more accurate microdosimetry profiles derived by Monte Carlo techniques, taking into account track structure of HZE particles and simulating DSBs in realistic cell geometry. We simulated 224 data points (D, A, Z, E) with the BDSTRACKS model, leading to a large coverage of LET from ~10 to 2,400 keV/μm. This model was used to generate theoretical RBE for various particles and energies for both cell death and mutation frequencies. The RBE LET dependence is in agreement with experimental data known in human and murine cells. It suggests that cell shape and its orientation with respect to the HZE particle beam can modify the biological response to radiation. Such discovery will be tested experimentally and, if proven accurate, will be another strong supporting evidence for DNA repair domains and their critical role in interpreting cosmic radiation sensitivity.

Viger, Louise↗
NASA NTRS1989

Prediction of fatigue-crack growth in a high-strength aluminum alloy under variable-amplitude loading

The present paper is concerned with the application of an analytical crack-closure model to study crack growth under various load histories. The model was based on a crack-tip plasticity concept like the Dugdale model, but modified to leave plastically deformed material in the wake of the advancing crack tip. The effect of material thickness on plasticity was accounted for by using a constraint factor on tensile yielding at the crack tip. The model was used to correlate crack-growth rates under constant-amplitude loading, and to predict crack growth under variable-amplitude loading on a high-strength aluminum alloy (7475-T7351) sheet material. The experimental data were obtained from Zhang et al. Predicted crack-growth lives agreed well with experimental data. For ten crack-growth tests subjected to various variable-amplitude load histories, the ratio of predicted-to-experimental lives ranged from 0.54 to 1.19. The mean value of the ratio of predicted-to-experimental lives was 0.95 and the standard error was 0.2 using a constraint factor of 1.9 in the model. Crack-opening stresses calculated from the model were significantly different from those determined by Zhang et al. using a striation-based experimental method.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Current Testing Capabilities at the NASA Ames Ballistic Ranges

Capabilities for designing and performing ballistic range tests at the NASA Ames Research Center are presented. Computational tools to assist in designing and developing ballistic range models and to predict the flight characteristics of these models are described. A CFD code modeling two-stage gun performance is available, allowing muzzle velocity, maximum projectile base pressure, and gun erosion to be predicted. Aerodynamic characteristics such as drag and stability can be obtained at speeds ranging from 0.2 km/s to 8 km/s. The composition and density of the test gas can be controlled, which allows for an assessment of Reynolds number and specific heat ratio effects under conditions that closely match those encountered during planetary entry. Pressure transducers have been installed in the gun breech to record the time history of the pressure during launch, and pressure transducers have also been installed in the walls of the range to measure sonic boom effects. To illustrate the testing capabilities of the Ames ballistic ranges, an overview of some of the recent tests is given.

Ramsey, Alvin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Super‐Droplet Method to Simulate Lagrangian Microphysics of Nuclear Fallout in a Homogeneous Cloud

Abstract Nuclear detonations produce hazardous local and global particles or fallout. Predicting fallout size, chemical components, and location is necessary to inform officials and determine immediate guidance for the public. However, existing nuclear detonation fallout models prescribe the particle size distributions based on limited observations. In this work, we apply the super‐droplet method, which is a numerical modeling technique developed for cloud microphysics, to simulate size distributions of particles in a mushroom cloud formed post‐detonation of a nuclear device. We model fallout formation and evolution with homogeneous nucleation and condensation of a single species and a Monte Carlo coagulation algorithm. We verify the numerical methods representing coagulation and condensation processes against analytical test problems. Additionally, we explore several scenarios for the integral system mass and yield in equivalent kilotons (kt) of TNT (trinitrotoluene). The fallout size distribution median diameter d pg follows a scaling law based on the integral system mass m v 0 kg and yield Y kt: nm. We test the effect of cloud turbulence, enhanced nucleation and growth, and vapor volatility with a sensitivity study. The range in median diameter predictions for simulations of historical tests performed over the Pacific encompass the measurements of particles sampled from the cloud caps. Predicted median particle size ranges up to 217, 123, 86, and 35 nm for historical tests with yields of 0.2, 0.7, 2, and 10 Mt, respectively. This work can be expanded in many different directions to build a more predictive model for fallout formation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1984

A survey of strength analysis methods for laminates with holes

The methods for predicting the strength of composite laminates with fastener holes are reviewed for the cases of unloaded as well as loaded holes. Three categories of methods are discussed: (1) the hole-boundary stress (HBS) methods which compare the peak stresses and the laminate strength; (2) the linear elastic fracture (LEFM) methods which assume cracks emanating from the hole and predict failure when the stress intensity factor for a crack equals the laminate fracture toughness; and (3) two different two-parameter (TP) methods: the average-stress (ASTP) method, which predicts failure when the average stress over a distance from the hole equals the laminate strength; and the point-stress (PSTP) Whitney-Nuismer (1974) approach, which predicts failure when the stress near the hole equals the material strength. The PSTP is relatively accurate and is by far the most widely used of all the prediction methods. However, for large ranges of variables and cases, the current strength predictions may not always be accurate.

Crews, J. H., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

A calculational method is described which provides a powerful tool for predicting solid rocket motor (SRM) casing and liquid rocket tankage fragmentation response. The approach properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. It uses the Pisces code developed by Physics International to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian-modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian-modeled fuel and casing system. The details of the predictive analytical modeling process and the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-overpressure failures are also discussed. Good agreement between predictions and observations are obtained for five specific events.

Eck, Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Empirical Cumulus Parameterization Scheme for a Global Spectral Model

Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This also suggests that in the absence of explicit models for convection, the proposed statistical scheme improves the modeling of the vertical distribution of heating and moistening in areas of deep convection.

Rajendran, K.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Shock acceleration of electrons and ions in solar flares

The simultaneous first-order Fermi shock acceleration of electrons, protons, and alpha particles are compared to observations of solar energetic particle events. For each event, a unique shock compression ratio in the range approx. 1.6 to 3 produces spectra in good agreement with observation. The range in compression ratios predicts that the more than 5 orders of magnitude spread in electron to proton intensity ratios observed at MeV energies is compressed to about 3 orders of magnitude at an assumed injection energy of 100 keV. The remaining spread can be accounted for with a modest range of injection conditions. The model predicts that the acceleration time to a given energy will be approximately equal for electrons and protons and, for reasonable solar parameters, can be on the order of 1 second to approx. 100 MeV.

Ellison, Donald C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Shock acceleration of electrons and ions in solar flares

The simultaneous first-order Fermi shock acceleration of electrons, protons, and alpha particles are compared to observations of solar energetic particle events. For each event, a unique shock compression ratio in the range of approximately 1.6-3 produces spectra in good agreement with observation. The range in compression ratios predicts that the more than five orders of magnitude spread in electron-to-proton intensity ratios observed at MeV energies is compressed to about three orders of magnitude at an assumed injection energy of 100 keV. The remaining spread can be accounted for with a modest range of injection conditions. The model predicts that the acceleration time to a given energy will be approximately equal for electrons and protons, and for reasonable solar parameters, can be on the order of 1 s to approximately 100 MeV.

Ellison, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Short-range forecasting and nowcasting, using a simple, isentropic prediction model

A numerical advection model which can be run on a local computer in a real-time forecast environment is described. This isentropic forecast model provides the local forecast office with easy access to temporally and spatially detailed estimates of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and wind field changes between 12-h rawinsonde observations. Case studies are presented based on the use of the model to predict the preconvective environment in spring and summer situations. Short-term forecasts of midtropospheric static stability patterns and stability index changes are traced for several severe storm events with and without the inclusion of surface data observed during the day. Forecast images of VAS low- and midlevel moisture fields and vertical moisture gradients are compared with the observations to determine the utility of the combined model/VAS imagery as a nowcasting guide.

Petersen, Ralph A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Vibration of compressively loaded shear deformable flat panels exhibiting initial geometric imperfections

Numerical study results are presented which indicate that, in the prebuckling range, the natural frequency predicted by the shear-deformable plate theory is smaller than that associated with its transverse-shear rigid counterpart. The opposite behavior occurs in the postbuckling/postcritical range. With increasing transverse shear flexibility, greater differences between frequencies predicted by shear deformation and infinitely rigid transverse shear theories emerge. The character of in-plane boundary conditions is a determinant of both increasing/decreasing buckling loads and increasing/decreasing vibratory frequencies.

Librescu, L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗