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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Quantification of Ophthalmic Changes After Long-Duration Spaceflight, and Subsequent Recovery

A subset of crewmembers are subjected to ophthalmic structure changes due to long-duration spaceflight (>6 months). Crewmembers who experience these changes are described as having Spaceflight Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome (SANS). Characteristics of SANS include optic disk edema, cotton wool spots, choroidal folds, refractive error, and posterior globe flattening. SANS remains a major obstacle to deep-space and planetary missions, requiring a better understanding of its etiology. Quantification of ocular, structural changes will improve our understanding of SANS pathophysiology. Methods were developed to quantify 3D optic nerve (ON) and ON sheath (ONS) geometries, ON tortuosity, and posterior globe deformation using MR imaging.

Sater, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Battery Health Quantification for TDRS Spacecraft by Using Signature Discriminability Measurement

The NASA/GSFC Space Network Project Office (SN) currently operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous TDRS spacecraft launched over the past 30 years. The SN project collects up to 16.5 Gigabytes of telemetry every month. Generally, the spacecraft health and functionality are obtained by the use of real-time telemetry data for the multiple spacecraft subsystems, which are transmitted to the main ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, NM. Recently, the SN has instituted a program of Big Data to analyze the large amounts of data using a variety of tools including Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, development of training sets, and a variety of mathematical modeling tools. The goal is to improve spacecraft management and obtain a more accurate prediction of the spacecraft end of life. The combination of these efforts with those of the Aerospace Corporation, which has a contract with the SN to produce yearly reliability estimates for the TDRS fleet, will be performed. This paper presents a new concept called telemetry quality quantification (TQQ) and discusses the progress that has been made in battery performance estimation for the second-generation TDRS spacecraft using a signature discriminability measures (SDM) algorithm combined with the Aerospace Corp. battery life estimation models. This activity is important because many of the TDRS fleet of spacecraft have exceeded their on-orbit design lifetime and, therefore, NASA must carefully manage the spacecraft to continue operations while avoiding an end-of-mission scenario that leaves a non-functioning spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit.

Ma, Kenneth Y.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Compact piezoelectric resonance mass balance for sample verification and mass quantification and mixing.

There is a need for sample verification and mass quantification of rock, soil and/or ice obtained by sample acquisition mechanisms on extraterrestrial bodies. For many scientific instruments information about the mass of the sample would aid in the interpretation of the data and help prevent the portioning system from overloading instrument ports. Additionally, on a potential sample return mission it is likely that a sample confirmation or mass determination requirement would be implemented before the spacecraft would be commanded to return to Earth or Lunar orbit. In an effort to meet these potential requirements, a piezoelectric resonance balance is being developed to measure a frequency change proportional to the sample mass change. In previous work1 we developed a resonance balance which produced large non-linear frequency changes due to the addition of a large mass. In this study we have looked at a variety of resonator geometries in an effort to linearize the frequency shift with mass. In addition, we have investigated the use of oscillator/counter circuitry to track the frequency shift of the piezoelectric mass balance. In this new design the frequency shifts automatically when a mass is placed on the balance and the counter circuit calculates the frequency shift. This frequency is then converted to a mass using calibration tables determined previously. An additional feature we have implemented is the use of a high frequency thickness mode piezoelectric resonator to mix the sample and a reactant or solvent. This allows for measuring both sample and reagent prior to ingestion by the instrument. This paper will focus on the design requirements and how they are affected by the local gravity and acoustic properties of the sample. Designs which allow for easy loading and unloading of the balance will also be discussed.

Yahnker, Christopher R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year−1 (1Tg = 1012 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH4 year−1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of −34 to −46 Tg CH4 year−1, we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH4 year−1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

wetland methane emission↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Uncertainty Quantification of Deployable Entry Technologies Using Multi-Fidelity Modeling

The objective of this work was to investigate the use of a co-Kriging based multi-fidelity modeling approach with a Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification analyses of surface heating on hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator vehicles and adaptable, deployable entry placement technology vehicles in Mars entry. A previously developed co-Kriging based multi-fidelity modeling approach was used to model the laminar and turbulent convective and radiative heat fluxes along the vehicle. Monte Carlo analyses of surface heat load for nine different vehicle nose radii was performed for both vehicles, assuming the same thermal protection system is used for both vehicles. The maximum heat loads and heat load uncertainties were found to occur at either the stagnation point or the vehicle shoulder. The maximum 95% confidence intervals for the total heat load for the hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator vehicle were found to be [-9.27, 7.81] % of the nominal value and [-6.09, 13.1] % of the nominal value for laminar and turbulent flow, respectively. The maximum 95% confidence intervals for the total heat load for the adaptable, deployable entry placement technology vehicle were found to be [-8.85, 7.22] % of the nominal value and [-9.33, 9.35] % of the nominal value for laminar and turbulent flow, respectively. The difference in heating uncertainties based on vehicle geometry between the two vehicle technologies was found to be minimal.

Mario Santos↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automated Probabilistic Finite Element Model Calibration Tool Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning

Qualification and certification of safety critical parts is a hurdle to the adoption of metallic additively manufactured components for aerospace vehicle applications. Challenges include variability in part properties due to inconsistent defect distribution and microstructure. Understanding of the process through finite element modeling (FEM), and process control through in-situ monitoring, may result in significant improvements; however, solutions useful to manufacturers will require large volumes of data and automated data utilization. Toward this end, a generalizable automated FEM calibration paradigm is developed. This paradigm leverages existing and novel tools from machine learning and uncertainty quantification to enable the automatic calibration of FEMs without requiring prior knowledge of the model performance across input parameter space, including meshing and solver settings, which can require time consuming manual model probing or cause noisy and inconsistent predictions. The result is a probabilistic distribution of calibrated and validated FEM input parameters targeting measured data.

Additive manufacturing model calibration finite el↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demonstration of a Lunar Water Extraction and Quantification Technique in a Relevant Environment

The presence of water ice in permanently shadowed regions on the lunar surface may enable a sustained human presence on the Moon with minimal need for consumables. The first step toward utilizing lunar water ice to advance human space exploration will be to determine the abundance, accessibility, and distribution of this valuable resource. This paper will describe the most recent test results from the Light Water Analysis and Volatile Extraction (Light WAVE) system that was designed to capture icy regolith samples acquired from a drill. Regolith samples are then weighed, sealed, and heated to release volatiles. Volatiles are captured in a volume with a known temperature and the ideal gas law is used to determine the total quantity of volatiles in the volume. The composition of the volatile mixture is determined using a mass spectrometer so that each volatile can be quantified. By quantifying the amount of water extracted from the regolith sample, and acquiring the mass of the sample, water concentration by mass can be determined. The goal of recent testing was to determine the accuracy of water quantification using a combination of ideal gas law and mass spectrometer analysis. The Light WAVE system maybe applied to future water ice investigation missions without an inherent limit to the number of samples that can be processed, and the system may also enable lunar water sample return.

Aaron J Paz↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

AeroFusion is a NASA Langley initiative to incorporate advances in data science into the aerodynamic modeling process to improve efficiency. The effort can largely be categorized in three components: reduced-order modeling techniques, surrogate modeling techniques, and uncertainty quantification. By combining various methods from these categories, AeroFusion aims to reduce the development cost of aerodynamic models, both in terms of time and money.

Steven Snyder↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

AeroFusion is a NASA Langley initiative to incorporate advances in data science into the aerodynamic modeling process to improve efficiency. The effort can largely be categorized in three components: reduced-order modeling techniques, surrogate modeling techniques, and uncertainty quantification. By combining various methods from these categories, AeroFusion aims to reduce the development cost of aerodynamic models, both in terms of time and money.

Steven Snyder↗
NASA NTRS2023

Automated Fluidics Device for Extraction and Quantification of miRNA Biomarkers From Blood

Radiation Assessment DuRing Exposure And long-Duration Spaceflight (RADREADS) demonstrates space-compatible point-of-care technology for quantitative biological monitoring of blood miRNA biomarkers in response to long-term low dose radiation exposure. This individualized monitoring approach will inform targeted treatment strategies to maximize medical resource utilization by accounting for individual susceptibility to radiation-related illnesses. As human spaceflight progresses beyond Earth’s magnetic shielding, radiation exposure poses a significant risk to astronaut health and safety. Extended operation in this environment comes with an increased risk of radiation exposure, leading to higher risks of radiation sickness, cancer, central nervous system effects, and degenerative diseases. While conventional physical dosimetry techniques capture radiation dose, individualistic susceptibility to radiation damage is varied. Multiple characteristics, including age, body weight, sex, genetics, and immune status, have been found to influence radiosensitivity (Liu et al. 2011, and Bouffler 2016). This differential response necessitates individualized monitoring and targeted treatment strategies to maximize medical resource utilization; however, a practical diagnostic platform for quantifying long-term, low dose radiation-induced tissue damage does not currently exist. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a class of small, non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by mediating the degradation of messenger RNA. The levels of particular miRNAs are influenced by biological processes such as inflammation and serve as biomarkers for a variety of conditions including cancer (Singh et al. 2017). MicroRNAs are found in various bodily fluids and are amenable to collection via liquid biopsies, providing a minimally invasive and easily quantifiable readout for a variety of radiosensitive reporters. A preliminary signature of 15 spaceflight sensitive miRNA has been identified in rodent and human studies, including miR-21-5p, miR-24-3p, miR-92a-3p, miR-17-5p, miR-16a-3p, miR-34a-3p, and miR-223-3p. These targets generally increased expression with radiation dose and linear energy transfer, though variation between individuals is not yet described. Current gaps in the field include a lack of understanding of longitudinal biological responses to long-term, low dose radiation exposure and the absence of space-compatible point-of-care technology for quantitative biological monitoring. In this body of work, we aim to develop an automated bleed-to-read system to process whole blood for the detection of miRNA biomarkers in order to monitor individualistic responses to radiation exposure. This will be achieved via separating serum (or plasma) from whole blood, followed by extraction, amplification, and quantification of the miRNA using a RT-qPCR reaction. Previously, the WetLab-2 hardware enabled execution of a RT-qPCR reaction aboard ISS; however, it is a manual system that requires crew manipulation and bulky components (Parra et al. 2017). To address these issues, automated fluid handling hardware was developed for each stage of sample preparation. Extraction of total RNA is achieved by sequentially pumping reagents through an off-the-shelf nucleic acid binding column (miRNeasy Serum/Plasma Advanced Kit, Qiagen). This approach eliminates several manual pipetting and centrifuging steps and limits the use of toxic chemicals commonly found in other sample processing techniques. The resulting elution will then be automatically dispensed for RT-qPCR analysis using a compact rotary qPCR (Mic qPCR Cycler, Bio Molecular Systems) that will improve spaceflight compatibility by removing bubbles from the detection region, another challenge highlighted by WetLab-2 (Parra et al. 2017). Efforts are also being made to simplify the RT-qPCR reaction to a 1-step air-dryable mix to improve long-term reagent stability at room temperature and reduce system complexity. By automating the RT-qPCR processes via microfluidic manipulation, RADREADS will reduce crewmember hands-on time and enable the personalized detection of radiation-induced tissue damage during long duration missions. Minimally invasive, longitudinal monitoring of individual’s response to radiation exposure will inform how the physiological system responds to long-term low dose space radiation and enables development of targeted countermeasures by the medical team. Ultimately, this portable technology will require minimal technical expertise and can also be used to monitor miRNA biomarkers associated with other diseases.

Tristen Head↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States

Extreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate-related health risks.

Natalie P. Thomas↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of Vacuum Chamber Pressure Distribution with Surrogate Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification

A major challenge in understanding differences in electric propulsion performance in ground tests and in space operations concerns the pressure distribution within the test vacuum chamber. The chamber backpressure is much higher than experienced in space, modifying thruster performance and plume dynamics. Numerical simulation is a key element to determining the background conditions in non-ideal vacuum chamber environments. An important parameter for the accurate simulation of chamber backpressure is the probability that an atom will stick to a cryogenic panel used to pump away the plume gases. This quantity can be used to model vacuum pumps in particle-based kinetic numerical methods. In this work, a three-dimensional direct simulation Monte Carlo code is used to model neutral xenon atoms flowing from the anode of the H9 Hall Effect Thruster within the University of Michigan’s Large Vacuum Test Facility. Simulated pressures are compared with ion gauge pressure measurements to infer the effective sticking coefficient of the chamber’s vacuum pumps. A pressure predicting surrogate model is developed for inference of pump sticking coefficients and for uncertainty quantification. This information enables accurate and useful kinetic simulations of electric propulsion thruster plasma plumes in vacuum chambers.

DSMC↗
NASA NTRS2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Artemis I Space Launch System Integrated Aerodynamics Databases

Accurate prediction of integrated aerodynamic forces and moments is a necessary part of aerospace vehicle development. This accuracy can be quantified in the form of an uncertainty model, which makes the prediction more useful within an integrated vehicle design effort. Aerodynamic force and moment databases were constructed for the Artemis~I mission of the Space Launch System vehicle. These databases reconcile data from multiple sources to yield unified predictions of how NASA's most advanced launch vehicle interacts with Earth's atmosphere as it ascends into orbit. This paper outlines how the uncertainty quantification was performed for these databases to ensure comprehensive and tractable uncertainty source coverage.

Michael W Lee↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification Methodology for Sonic Boom Loudness of a Low-Boom Supersonic Concept

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty quantification for sonic boom loudness metrics associated with the X-59 aircraft during its acoustic validation phase. The study focuses on employing advanced methodologies to characterize uncertainties in key sonic boom parameters predicted from a database derived from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. These methodologies include creating a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogate model, which is then used to run a Monte Carlo analysis to obtain 95% uncertainty intervals for sonic boom loudness parameters across the full carpet. Atmospheric uncertainties are rigorously considered, leveraging weather models based on historical data near Edwards Air Force Base to simulate potential flight conditions. The findings include preliminary uncertainty results for the full carpet during the validation phase of the Quesst mission. Additionally, a sensitivity study reveals that the primary sources of uncertainty are humidity and cruise weight.

Laura M. White↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
DOE OSTI2021

State of Stress Uncertainty Quantification and Geomechanical Risk Analysis for Subsurface Engineering

All subsurface stress measurement methods available for deep subsurface applications are indirect and involve a significant amount of uncertainty. Quantifying these uncertainties is critical for applications where the state of stress is a component of a risk analysis with significant safety, environmental, and economic considerations. A publicly available and open source tool called the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT) has been developed to aid in performing a Bayesian uncertainty quantification and geomechanical risk analysis using many types of commonly available data. A new feature of this tool is using data from the FutureGen 2.0 site. The new feature of the tool was uses information about the absence or presence of borehole breakouts to constrain the state of stress. This new feature allows the user to specify probability distributions for the relevant parameters such as the drilling mud pressure, temperature, and the formation strength properties. The tool computes the posterior joint probability distribution of the horizontal principal stresses. Using random samples from this posterior distribution the tool then computes the probability of activating a critically oriented fault at a range of pore pressures. This latter feature can be used to aid in the assessment of the risk of induced seismicity and leakage in geologic carbon sequestration and enhanced geothermal systems.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗