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At least 505 records · Page 28

Previously unaccounted atmospheric mercury deposition in a midlatitude deciduous forest

Significance Direct measurements of atmospheric deposition of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) over a temperate forest showed a pronounced annual deposition of 25.1 µg ⋅ m −2 , which dominated as a source of mercury. GEM deposition was five times greater than wet deposition and three times greater than litterfall deposition, which has been used as a proxy for GEM deposition until now. Measured GEM deposition is driven by combined plant GEM uptake and underlying forest floor GEM uptake. Global forests may be a much larger global GEM sink than currently assumed, which may explain high mercury levels in soils across forests. Forest mercury mobilizes via watershed runoff and bioaccumulates in aquatic biota, ultimately leading to mercury exposures in wildlife and humans.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Overlooked branch turnover creates a widespread bias in forest carbon accounting

Most measurements and models of forest carbon cycling neglect the carbon flux associated with the turnover of branch biomass, a physiological process quantified for other organs (fine roots, leaves, and stems). Synthesizing data from boreal, temperate, and tropical forests (184,815 trees), we found that including branch turnover increased empirical estimates of aboveground wood production by 16% (equivalent to 1.9 Pg Cy −1 globally), of similar magnitude to the observed global forest carbon sinks. In addition, reallocating carbon to branch turnover in model simulations reduced stem wood biomass, a long-lasting carbon storage, by 7 to 17%. This prevailing neglect of branch turnover suggests widespread biases in carbon flux estimates across global datasets and model simulations. Branch litterfall, sometimes used as a proxy for branch turnover, ignores carbon lost from attached dead branches, underestimating branch C turnover by 38% in a pine forest. Modifications to field measurement protocols and existing models are needed to allow a more realistic partitioning of wood production and forest carbon storage.

Lim, Hyungwoo↗

Competition response of cloud supersaturation explains diminished Twomey effect for smoky aerosol in the tropical Atlantic

The Twomey effect brightens clouds by increasing aerosol concentrations, which activates more droplets and decreases cloud supersaturation in response to more competition for water vapor. To quantify this competition response, we used marine low cloud observations in clean and smoky conditions at Ascension Island in the tropical South Atlantic during the Layered Aerosol Smoke Interactions with Cloud (LASIC) campaign. These observations show similar increases in droplet number for increased accumulation-mode particles from surface-based and satellite cloud retrievals, demonstrating the importance of below-cloud aerosol measurements for retrieving aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) in clean and smoky aerosol conditions. Four methods for estimating cloud supersaturation from aerosol–cloud measurements were compared, with cloud scene-based and parcel-based methods showing sufficient variability for a strong dependence on both aerosol accumulation number concentration and cloud-base updraft velocities. Decomposing aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth shows the calculated competition response accounts for dampening the activation response by 12 to 35%, explaining the diminished Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations observed for smoky conditions at LASIC and previously around the world. This result was consistent for independent supersaturation retrievals by cloud scene-based droplet number and cloud condensation nuclei and parcel-based multimode size-resolving Lagrangian methods. Translating aerosol effects to local radiative forcing with clean conditions as a proxy for preindustrial and smoky conditions for present-day showed that the competition response reduces cooling from the Twomey radiative forcing by 12 to 35%, providing an essential process-specific constraint for improving the representation of aerosol competition in climate model simulation of indirect aerosol forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electron Cyclotron Emission–Based Separatrix Identification in ITER with OMFIT Synthetic Modeling

Accurate determination of the separatrix location is essential for understanding edge plasma behavior and optimizing confinement in tokamaks, especially in next-generation devices such as ITER. In this study, a synthetic microwave diagnostics module was developed and implemented in the OMFIT framework to assess the feasibility of an electron cyclotron emission–based separatrix detection method in ITER plasmas. Simulations were carried out using ITER H-mode equilibrium scenarios with different plasma density profiles and different pedestal widths. Here, the results show that the electron emission temperature profiles consistently exhibit an inversion pattern near the edge, with a well-defined minimum point that could serve as a proxy for the separatrix location. However, unlike in the DIII-D, the minimum point in ITER is systematically offset by approximately 2 cm into the scrape-off layer, independent of density or pedestal width, which is within the radial resolution range (2 to 5 cm) determined by the 500-MHz channel spacing. While the method does not provide the exact separatrix location, it offers a reliable indicator of the boundary region and has potential applications for real-time boundary monitoring in ITER and other future fusion devices.

Electron cyclotron emission↗

Imperfect slope measurements drive overestimation in a geometric cone model of lake and reservoir depth

Lake and reservoir (waterbody) depth is a critical characteristic that influences many important ecological processes. Unfortunately, depth measurements are labor-intensive to gather and are only available for a small fraction of waterbodies globally. Therefore, scientists have tried to predict depth from characteristics easily obtained for all waterbodies, such as surface area or the slope of the surrounding land. One approach for predicting waterbody depth simulates basins using a geometric cone model where the nearshore land slope and distance to the center of the waterbody are assumed to be representative proxies for in-lake slope and distance to the deepest point respectively. We tested these assumptions using bathymetry data from ~5000 lakes and reservoirs to examine whether differences in waterbody type or shape influenced depth prediction error. Here, we found that nearshore land slope was not representative of in-lake slope, and using it for prediction increases error substantially relative to models using true in-lake slope for all waterbody types and shapes. Predictions were biased toward overprediction in concave waterbodies (i.e., bowl-shaped; up to 18% of the study population) and reservoir waterbodies (up to 30% of the study population). Despite this systematic overprediction, model errors were fewer (in absolute and relative terms, irrespective of any specific slope covariate) for concave than convex waterbodies, suggesting the geometric cone model is an adequate representation of depth for these waterbodies. But because convex waterbodies are far more common (>72% of our study population), minimizing overall depth prediction error remains a challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗

Does Bayesian model averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests

We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT) description of data. We employ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to combine results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two 'toy problems' where the underlying function used to generate data sets is known. We use Bayesian parameter estimation to extract the polynomial coefficients that describe these data at low x. A 'naturalness' prior is imposed on the coefficients, so that they are $\mathcal{O}(1)$. We BMA different polynomial degrees by weighting each according to its Bayesian evidence and compare the predictive performance of this BMA with that of the individual polynomials. In conclusion, the credibility intervals on the BMA forecast have the stated coverage properties more consistently than does the highest evidence polynomial, though BMA does not necessarily outperform every polynomial.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Study of turbulence-induced refraction of lower hybrid waves using synthetic scrape-off layer filaments

Here, turbulence-induced refraction effects to lower hybrid (LH) wave propagation and current drive are studied using synthetic scrape-off layer (SOL) blob/filament fields. A synthetic 3D, field-following, blob turbulence model is implemented in the ray-tracing/Fokker-Planck (RTFP) codes GENRAY/CQL3D. In Alcator C-Mod, the blob field is shown to significantly affect LH ray-trajectories, leading to increased on-axis damping and smoother current profiles. This effect depends on the average blob size and amplitude. In addition, the diffusion of ray-trajectories in phase-space caused by turbulence increases the robustness of the RTFP model. A modified $N_{||}$ launch spectrum, acting as a proxy for parametric decay instability (PDI) effects, is included in simulations with the blob model. A synergy between the modified launch spectrum and turbulence-induced refraction results in synthetic hard x-ray profiles that agree with experiment. Lastly, the blob model is used to predict the effect of SOL turbulence on DIII-D high-field side (HFS) LH launch. Assuming low turbulence amplitude in the HFS SOL (~5%), turbulence-induced refraction is predicted to have little effect on current drive efficiency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

CORC $^{\circledR}$ cable terminations with integrated Hall arrays for quench detection

ReBCO superconducting cables have the potential to enable compact thermonuclear fusion reactors that operate at magnetic fields exceeding 20 T and allow operation at temperatures far exceeding the boiling point of liquid helium, potentially allowing for demountable magnets. Normal zone detection remains a challenge, and while novel quench detection techniques are an active area of research, few are non-invasive, provide real-time quench detection, and have been demonstrated with current ramp rates relevant for fusion reactors. To address this problem, a CORC$^{\circledR}$ cable termination is developed with integrated Hall sensors to monitor current redistribution as a proxy for quench detection. The methodology exploits the current sharing and layered topology in CORC$^{\circledR}$ cables, and allows quench detection using a localized sensor instead of co-wound voltage wires or optical fibers. Furthermore, experiments are presented where current redistribution is measured from induced quenches, and in a 0.2 meter CORC$^{\circledR}$ sample it is found that the Hall sensors detect normal zone transitions with a similar magnitude and temporal resolution as voltage measurements. To emulate the conditions of dynamic poloidal and central solenoidal fields, experiments are repeated with ramp rates up to 10 kA s -1 that demonstrate the potential to detect normal zone development over a range of experimental parameters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Effects of midplane density gradient in the propagation of high-harmonic fast waves considering high temperature anisotropy in the scrape-off layer of NSTX-U

High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating experiments in NSTX have shown that up to 60% of the injected power can be lost in the Scrape-Off Layer (SOL) when the density is above the fast wave cutoff density in front of the antenna, for which the fast wave is able to propagate into the plasma. This work models HHFW propagation in the SOL plasmas of NSTX-U using a 2D divertor SOL profile derived from the pressure assumption and the finite element temperature solution, which accounts for the high anisotropy of heat conduction in a 2D axisymmetric geometry. In this work, the two-dimensional axisymmetric SOL temperature profile is first evaluated by solving the steady-state non-linear heat conduction equation, in which thermal conductivity depends on temperature, using a finite element approach in the Petra-M workbench. A 2D density profile is then obtained from a prescribed density profile at the outer midplane assuming pressure is uniform along a flux tube in the SOL. This approach results in density and temperature profiles in which the strong asymmetric nature of heat conduction between the parallel and perpendicular background magnetic field is successfully captured. Furthermore, this work focuses on investigating the effect of the SOL plasma density profile on parasitic HHFW propagation in the SOL. The simulation results show that the radial gradient of the density profile affects the wavefield propagation in the SOL. As the density profile broadens, the wavefield intensity and its poloidal extent are reduced in the SOL, and the core coupling increases. Similarly, as shown by collisional power deposition, a proxy for power absorption, the fraction of power deposited in the SOL decreases with a broadening profile.

HHFW↗

Tomographic galaxy clustering with the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam first year public data release

We analyze the clustering of galaxies in the first public data release of the HSC Subaru Strategic Program. Despite the relatively small footprints of the observed fields, the data are an excellent proxy for the deep photometric datasets that will be acquired by LSST, and are therefore an ideal test bed for the analysis methods being implemented by the LSST DESC. We select a magnitude limited sample with i<24.5 and analyze it in four redshift bins covering 0.15≲z≲1.5. We carry out a Fourier-space analysis of the two-point clustering of this sample, including all auto- and cross-correlations. We demonstrate the use of map-level deprojection methods to account for fluctuations in the galaxy number density caused by observational systematics. Through an HOD analysis, we place constraints on the characteristic halo masses of this sample, finding a good fit up to scales k max = 1Mpc –1 , including both auto- and cross-correlations. Our results show monotonically decreasing average halo masses, which can be interpreted in terms of the drop-out of red galaxies at high redshifts for a flux-limited sample. In terms of photometric redshift systematics, we show that additional care is needed in order to marginalize over uncertainties in the redshift distribution in galaxy clustering, and that these uncertainties can be constrained by including cross-correlations. We are able to make a ~3σ detection of lensing magnification in the HSC data. Our results are stable to variations in σ 8 and Ω c and we find constraints that agree well with measurements from Planck and low-redshift probes. Lastly, we use our pipeline to study the clustering of galaxies as a function of limiting flux, and provide a simple fitting function for the linear galaxy bias for magnitude limited samples as a function of limiting magnitude and redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Capturing non-Gaussianity of the large-scale structure with weighted skew-spectra

The forthcoming generation of wide-field galaxy surveys will probe larger volumes and galaxy densities, thus allowing for a much larger signal-to-noise ratio for higher-order clustering statistics, in particular the galaxy bispectrum. Extracting this information, however, is more challenging than using the power spectrum due to more complex theoretical modeling, as well as significant computational cost of evaluating the bispectrum signal and the error budget. To overcome these challenges, several proxy statistics have been proposed in the literature, which partially or fully capture the information in the bispectrum, while being computationally less expensive than the bispectrum. One such statistics are weighted skew-spectra, which are cross-spectra of the density field and appropriately weighted quadratic fields. Using Fisher forecasts, we show that the information in these skew-spectra is equivalent to that in the bispectrum for parameters that appear as amplitudes in the bispectrum model, such as galaxy bias parameters or the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity. We consider three shapes of the primordial bispectrum: local, equilateral and that due to massive particles with spin two during inflation. In conclusion, to obtain constraints that match those from a measurement of the full bispectrum, we find that it is crucial to account for the full covariance matrix of the skew-spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The persistence of large scale structures. Part I. Primordial non-Gaussianity

Abstract We develop an analysis pipeline for characterizing the topology of large scale structure and extracting cosmological constraints based on persistent homology . Persistent homology is a technique from topological data analysis that quantifies the multiscale topology of a data set, in our context unifying the contributions of clusters, filament loops, and cosmic voids to cosmological constraints. We describe how this method captures the imprint of primordial local non-Gaussianity on the late-time distribution of dark matter halos, using a set of N-body simulations as a proxy for real data analysis. For our best single statistic, running the pipeline on several cubic volumes of size 40 (Gpc/h) 3 , we detect f NL loc =10 at 97.5% confidence on ~ 85% of the volumes. Additionally wetest our ability to resolve degeneracies betweenthe topological signature of f NL loc and variation of σ 8 and argue that correctly identifying nonzero f NL loc in this case is possible via an optimal template method. Our method relies on information living at $\mathcal{O}$(10) Mpc/h, a complementary scale with respect to commonly used methods such as the scale-dependent bias in the halo/galaxy power spectrum. Therefore, while still requiring a large volume, our method does not require sampling long-wavelength modes to constrain primordial non-Gaussianity. Moreover, our statistics are interpretable: we are able to reproduce previous results in certain limits and we make new predictions for unexplored observables, such as filament loops formed by dark matter halos in a simulation box.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Mass calibration of DES Year-3 clusters via SPT-3G CMB cluster lensing

We measure the stacked lensing signal in the direction of galaxy clusters in the DarkEnergy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) redMaPPer sample, using cosmic microwave background (CMB)temperature data from SPT-3G, the third-generation CMB camera on the South PoleTelescope (SPT). Here, we estimate the lensing signal using temperature maps constructed fromthe initial 2 years of data from the SPT-3G 'Main' survey, covering 1500 deg$^{2}$ of the Southernsky. We then use this lensing signal as a proxy for the mean cluster mass of the DES sample. Thethermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) signal, which can contaminate the lensing signal if notaddressed, is isolated and removed from the data before obtaining the mass measurement. In thiswork, we employ three versions of the redMaPPer catalogue: a Flux-Limited sample containing 8865clusters, a Volume-Limited sample with 5391 clusters, and a Volume&Redshift-Limited sample with4450 clusters. For the three samples, we detect the CMB lensing signal at a significance of12.4σ, 10.5σ and 10.2σ and find the mean cluster masses to be M$_{200m}$ = 1.66±0.13 [stat.]± 0.03 [sys.], 1.97±0.18 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.],and 2.11±0.20 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.]×10$^{14}$ M$_{⊙}$, respectively. Thisis a factor of ∼ 2 improvement relative to the precision of measurements with previousgenerations of SPT surveys and the most constraining cluster mass measurements using CMB clusterlensing to date. Overall, we find no significant tensions between our results and masses given byredMaPPer mass-richness scaling relations of previous works, which were calibrated using CMBcluster lensing, optical weak lensing, and velocity dispersion measurements from variouscombinations of DES, SDSS and Planck data. We then divide our sample into 3 redshift and 3richness bins, finding no significant discrepancies with optical weak-lensing calibrated masses inthese bins. We forecast a 5.7% constraint on the mean cluster mass of the DES Y3 sample withthe complete SPT-3G surveys when using both temperature and polarization data and including anadditional ∼ 1400 deg$^{2}$ of observations from the 'Extended' SPT-3G survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Simons Observatory: impact of bandpass, polarization angle and calibration uncertainties on small-scale power spectrum analysis

We study the effects due to mismatches in passbands, polarization angles, and temperature and polarization calibrations in the context of the upcoming cosmic microwave background experiment Simons Observatory (SO). Using the SO multi-frequency likelihood, we estimate the bias and the degradation of constraining power in cosmological and astrophysical foreground parameters assuming different levels of knowledge of the instrumental effects. We find that incorrect but reasonable assumptions about the values ofall the systematics examined here can have significant effects on cosmologicalanalyses, hence requiring marginalization approaches at the likelihood level.When doing so, we find that the most relevant effect is due to bandpass shifts. When marginalizing over them, the posteriors of parameters describing astrophysical microwave foregrounds (such as radio point sources or dust) get degraded, while cosmological parameters constraints are not significantly affected.Marginalization over polarization angles with up to 0.25$^{°}$ uncertainty causes an irrelevant bias ≲ 0.05 σ in all parameters.Marginalization over calibration factors in polarization broadens the constraints on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom N$_{eff}$ by a factor 1.2, interpreted here as a proxy parameter for non standard model physics targeted by high-resolution CMB measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Galaxy cluster profiles: a Gaussian mixture model approach to halo miscentering

Measurements of the galaxy density and weak-lensing profiles of galaxy clusters typically rely on an assumed cluster center, which is taken to be the brightest cluster galaxy or other proxies for the true halo center defined as the minimum in the potential well. Departure of the assumed cluster center from the true halo center bias the resultant profile measurements, an effect known as miscentering bias. Currently, miscentering is typically modeled in stacked profiles of clusters with a two parameter model. We use an alternate approach in which the profiles of individual clusters are used with the corresponding likelihood computed using a Gaussian mixture model. We test the approach using halos and the corresponding subhalo profiles from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamic simulations. We obtain significantly improved estimates of the miscentering parameters for both 3D and projected 2D profiles relevant for imaging surveys. We discuss applications to upcoming cosmological surveys. Our Python package for the Gaussian mixture model is publicly available at https://github.com/KyleMiller1/Halo-Miscentering-Mixture-Model.

Bayesian reasoning↗

Misalignment of magnetic field in DIII-D assessed by post-mortem analysis of divertor targets

Abstract We assess the toroidal magnetic field B t asymmetry in DIII-D due to a misalignment of the toroidal field coils with respect to the poloidal magnetic field coils and vacuum vessel. The peak-to-peak variation of the divertor strike point (SP) radius is measured to be 1 cm, with an n = 1 toroidal pattern. We use the centre of a narrow carbon deposition band on tungsten-coated divertor tiles just inside the outer strike point (OSP) as a proxy for the divertor SP location. The band occurred in a series of reverse B t discharges with the OSP positioned on the divertor inserts due to strong E × B drift transport of C from the inner to the outer SP through the private flux region. The variation in band radius (and hence the magnetic SP) is a (4.89 ± 0.31) mm shift toward (310 ± 4)° toroidal direction. These measurements agree well with previous measurements of the 3D magnetic field distribution (Luxon 2003 Nucl. Fusion 43 1813), simulations performed by the mafot field line integration code, and recent Langmuir probe measurements in the small-angle-slot (SAS) divertor (Watkins et al 2019 Nucl. Mater. Energy 18 46). Comparison of these measurements in the SAS divertor also indicates that there is the possibility of a tilt (in conjunction with the shift) of the B t coil field of (0.04 ± 0.07)° towards the toroidal angle of (215 ± 25)°. Previous measurements suggested a field misalignment of (4.6 ± 0.3) mm in the 270° toroidal direction, and a tilt of (0.06 ± 0.02)° toward the 114° toroidal direction, which is similar to the results reported here. These studies will be important for better understanding the radial variation of the toroidal strike line in DIII-D, for designing the new generation of SAS divertor, and for developing an understanding of the impact of error fields on tokamaks with tightly baffled slot divertors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Heuristic predictions of RMP configurations for ELM suppression in ITER burning plasmas and their impact on divertor performance

Abstract A subspace of resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) configurations for edge localized mode (ELM) suppression is predicted for H-mode burning plasmas at 15 MA current and 5.3 T magnetic field in ITER. Perturbations to the core plasma can be reduced by a factor of 2 for equivalent edge stability proxies, while the perturbed plasma boundary geometry remains mostly resilient. The striated domain of perturbed field lines connecting from the main plasma (normalized poloidal flux < 1 ) to the divertor targets is found to be significantly larger than the expected heat load width in the absence of RMPs. This facilitates heat load spreading with peak values at an acceptable level below 10 MW m − 2 on the outer target already at moderate gas fueling and low Ne seeding for additional radiative dissipation of the 100 MW of power into the scrape-off layer (SOL). On the inner target, however, re-attachment is predicted away from the equilibrium strike point due to increased upstream heat flux, higher downstream temperature and less efficient impurity radiation.

3D plasma boundary modeling↗