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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Assessment of Recent Trends in NOx and VOC Emissions and Ozone Production Sensitivity Regimes Using Satellite Data

This presentation highlights results from a NASA Aura Science Team and Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP) project which study the capability to observe and model trends in ozone (O3) production regimes using spaceborne sensors. Ultraviolet– visible (UV–Vis) tropospheric column satellite retrievals of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound [VOC] reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides [NOx]) are frequently used to investigate the sensitivity of O3 production to emissions of NOx and VOCs. There are challenges that come from using satellite-derived ratios of HCHO and NO2 (FNR) to study O3 production sensitivity with the largest uncertainties associated with specific spaceborne sensor’s retrieval biases and errors. This study quantifies the differences and improvements in satellite retrievals of O3 production sensitivity regimes using FNRs when moving from legacy polar orbiting satellites such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP platform to newer, higher spatiotemporal resolution satellite sensors TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and eventually the recently launched NASA geostationary sensor Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO). Furthermore, we investigate how using retrievals of NO2 and HCHO from these different satellites to constrain model predictions impacts the ability to accurately simulate O3 chemistry including chemical production regimes. To this end, we have conducted inverse model simulations, using the WRF-CMAQ-DDM data assimilation system at 12 km × 12 km, to constrain emissions of NOx and VOCs over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when assimilating OMI and TROPOMI retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. Two advantages of this are that we a) account for each satellite’s errors/biases in the emission estimation and b) update the prior profile to ensure that only radiance information is used for optimizing the emissions. This presentation will demonstrate: a) the varying accuracy of different satellite retrieved FNRs and ability to capture known sub-annual emission trends (e.g., seasonal, weekend/weekday) and emission anomalies during the COVID-19 lockdown of 2020, b) the differences and improvements in top-down emission estimates of NOx and VOCs when constrained by newer satellite sensors compared to legacy systems, and c) multi-sensor optimized emission estimates of summer-time NOx and VOCs between 2019-2021.

Data↗
NASA NTRS1982

Space Shuttle Orbiter descent navigation

The entry operational sequence (OPS 3) begins approximately 2 hours prior to the deorbit maneuver and continues through atmospheric entry, terminal area energy management (TAEM), approach and landing, and rollout. During this flight phase, the navigation state vector is estimated by the Space Shuttle Orbiter onboard navigation system. This estimate is computed using a six-element sequential Kalman filter, which blends inertial measurement unit (IMU) delta-velocity data with external navaid data. The external navaids available to the filter are tactical air navigation (TACAN), barometric altimeter, and microwave scan beam landing system (MSBLS). Attention is given to the functional design of the Orbiter navigation system, the descent navigation sensors and measurement processing, predicted Kalman gains, correlation coefficients, and current flights navigation performance.

Montez, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

On the Measurement of Elemental Abundance Ratios in Inner Galaxy H II Regions

Although abundance gradients in the Milky Way Galaxy certainly exist, details remain uncertain, particularly in the inner Galaxy, where stars and H II regions in the Galactic plane are obscured optically. In this paper we revisit two previously studied, inner Galaxy H II regions: G333.6-0.2 and W43. We observed three new positions in G333.6-0.2 with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory and reobserved the central position with the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer in far-infrared lines of S++, N++, N+, and O++. We also added the N+ lines at 122 and 205 microns to the suite of lines measured in W43 by Simpson et al.. The measured electron densities range from approx. 40 to over 4000 per cu cm in a single HII region, indicating that abundance analyses must consider density variations, since the critical densities of the observed lines range from 40 to 9000 per cu cm. We propose a method to handle density variations and make new estimates of the S/H and N/H abundance ratios. We find that our sulfur abundance estimates for G333.6-0.2 and W43 agree with the S/H abundance ratios expected for the gradient previously reported by Simpson et al., with the S/H values revised to be smaller owing to changes in collisional excitation cross sections. The estimated N/H, S/H, and N/S ratios are the most reliable because of their small corrections for unseen ionization states (< or approx. 10%). The estimated N/S ratios for the two sources are smaller than what would be calculated from the N/H and S/H ratios in our previous paper. If all low excitation H II regions had similar changes to their N/S ratios as a result of adding measurements of N+ to previous measurements of N++, there would be no or only a very small gradient in N/S. This is interesting because nitrogen is considered to be a secondary element and sulfur is a primary element in galactic chemical evolution calculations. We compute models of the two H II regions to estimate corrections for the other unseen ionization states. We find, with large uncertainties, that oxygen does not, have a high abundance, with the result that the N/O ratio is as high (approx. 0.35) as previously reported. The reasons for the uncertainty in the ionization corrections for oxygen are both the non-uniqueness of the H II region models and the sensitivity of these models to different input atomic data and stellar atmosphere models. We discuss these predictions and conclude that only a few of the latest models adequately reproduce H II region observations, including the well-known, relatively-large observed Ne++/O++ ratios in low- and moderate-excitation H II regions.

Simpson, Janet P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Channel Temperature Model for Microwave AlGaN/GaN HEMTs on SiC and Sapphire MMICs in High Power, High Efficiency SSPAs

A key parameter in the design trade-offs made during AlGaN/GaN HEMTs development for microwave power amplifiers is the channel temperature. An accurate determination can, in general, only be found using detailed software; however, a quick estimate is always helpful, as it speeds up the design cycle. This paper gives a simple technique to estimate the channel temperature of a generic microwave AlGaN/GaN HEMT on SiC or Sapphire, while incorporating the temperature dependence of the thermal conductivity. The procedure is validated by comparing its predictions with the experimentally measured temperatures in microwave devices presented in three recently published articles. The model predicts the temperature to within 5 to 10 percent of the true average channel temperature. The calculation strategy is extended to determine device temperature in power combining MMICs for solid-state power amplifiers (SSPAs).

Freeman, Jon C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Observations of Soft Gamma Repeaters

Magnetars (Soft Gamma Repeaters and Anomalous X-ray Pulsars) are a subclass of neutron stars characterized by their recurrent X-ray bursts. While in an active (bursting) state (lasting anywhere between days and years), they are emitting hundreds of predominantly soft (kl'=30 kev), short (0.1 - 100 ms long) events. Their quiescent source X-ray light curves exhibit pulsations in the narrow range of 5-1 1 s; estimates of these rotational period rate changes (spin-down) indicate that their magnetic fields are extremely high, of the order of 10A14-10A15 G. Such high B-field objects, dubbed "magnetars", had been predicted to exist in 1992, but the first concrete observational evidence was obtained in 1998 for two of these sources. Very recently, SGR1806-20 emitted a giant flare, which was detected in the radio with a multitude of telescopes under an extensive international campaign. These observations have revealed exciting new results, never seen before in any of the other magnetar sources. I will discuss here these results and their relevance to our understanding of the nature of magnetars.

Kouveliotou, Chryssa↗
NASA NTRS2009

Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission Commissioning Phase Orbit Determination Error Analysis

The Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission commissioning phase starts in a 185 km altitude x 12 Earth radii (RE) injection orbit and lasts until the Phase 1 mission orbits and orientation to the Earth-Sun li ne are achieved. During a limited time period in the early part of co mmissioning, five maneuvers are performed to raise the perigee radius to 1.2 R E, with a maneuver every other apogee. The current baseline is for the Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Facility to p rovide MMS orbit determination support during the early commissioning phase using all available two-way range and Doppler tracking from bo th the Deep Space Network and Space Network. This paper summarizes th e results from a linear covariance analysis to determine the type and amount of tracking data required to accurately estimate the spacecraf t state, plan each perigee raising maneuver, and support thruster cal ibration during this phase. The primary focus of this study is the na vigation accuracy required to plan the first and the final perigee ra ising maneuvers. Absolute and relative position and velocity error hi stories are generated for all cases and summarized in terms of the ma ximum root-sum-square consider and measurement noise error contributi ons over the definitive and predictive arcs and at discrete times inc luding the maneuver planning and execution times. Details of the meth odology, orbital characteristics, maneuver timeline, error models, and error sensitivities are provided.

Chung, Lauren R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Analyzing Machine Learning Predictions of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Spectral Difference Over Snow-Covered Terrain in High Mountain Asia

Snow is an important component of the terrestrial freshwater budget in high mountainAsia (HMA) and contributes to the runoff in Himalayan rivers through snowmelt. Despitethe importance of snow in HMA, considerable spatiotemporal uncertainty exists across the different estimates of snow water equivalent for this region. In order to better estimate snow water equivalent, radiative transfer models are often used in conjunction with microwave brightness temperature measurements. In this study, the efficacy of support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning technique, to predict passive microwave brightness temperature spectral difference (1Tb) as a function of geophysical variables (snow water equivalent, snow depth, snow temperature, and snow density) is explored through a sensitivity analysis. The use of machine learning (as opposed to radiative transfer models) is a relatively new and novel approach for improving snow water equivalent estimates. The Noah-MP land surface model within the NASALand Information System framework is used to simulate the hydrologic cycle over HMA and model geophysical variables that are then used for SVM training. The SVMsserve as a nonlinear map between the geophysical space (modeled in Noah-MP) andthe observation space (1Tb as measured by the radiometer). Advanced MicrowaveScanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System measured passive microwave brightness temperatures over snow-covered locations in the HMA region are used as training data during the SVM training phase. Sensitivity of well-trained SVMs to each Noah-MP modeled state variable is assessed by computing normalized sensitivity coefficients. Sensitivity analysis results generally conform with the known first-order physics. Input states that increase volume scattering of microwave radiation, such as snow density and snow water equivalent, exhibit a plurality of positive normalized sensitivity coefficients. In general, snow temperature was the most sensitive input to the SVM predictions. The sensitivity of each state is location and time dependent. The signs of normalized sensitivity coefficients that indicate physical irrationality are ascribed to significant cross-correlation between Noah-MP simulated states and decreased SVM prediction capability at specific locations due to insufficient training data. SVM prediction pitfalls do exist that serve to highlight the limitations of this particular machine learning algorithm.

high mountain Asia↗
NASA NTRS1982

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation and diversity improvement

A new model was developed to predict attenuation statistics for a single Earth-satellite or terrestrial propagation path. The model was extended to provide predictions of the joint occurrences of specified or higher attenuation values on two closely spaced Earth-satellite paths. The joint statistics provide the information required to obtain diversity gain or diversity advantage estimates. The new model is meteorologically based. It was tested against available Earth-satellite beacon observations and terrestrial path measurements. The model employs the rain climate region descriptions of the Global rain model. The rms deviation between the predicted and observed attenuation values for the terrestrial path data was 35 percent, a result consistent with the expectations of the Global model when the rain rate distribution for the path is not used in the calculation. Within the United States the rms deviation between measurement and prediction was 36 percent but worldwide it was 79 percent.

Crane, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Fast molecular shocks. II - Emission from fast dissociative shocks

The line radiations emitted in the cooling gas behind a fast dissociative shock are studied. The intensities emitted in high rotational transitions of the neutral molecules CO, SiO, HCN, CN, NO, and SO are estimated, as well as in rovibrational transitions of the molecular ions HeH(+) and OH(+) in radio recombination lines of atomic hydrogen and in fine-structure transitions of C, C(+), O, and Si(+). The predictions are compared with the observed intensities of line emission from the Orion-KL region. For Orion-KL the observations do not exclude, but probably do not require, the presence of a fast dissociative shock. Emission from SiO in high-J rotational states and from vibrationally excited OH(+), HeH(+), HeH(+), and SO(+) may be detectable from dissociative shocks under suitable conditions of preshock density and shock velocity; such emission may prove to be a useful diagnostic probe of fast shock activity.

Neufeld, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Determination of series resistance of indium phosphide solar cells

The series resistance of a solar cell is an important parameter, which must be minimized to achieve high cell efficiencies. The cell series resistance is affected by the starting material, its design, and processing. The theoretical approach proposed by Jia, et. al., is used to calculate the series resistance of indium phosphide solar cells. It is observed that the theoretical approach does not predict the series resistance correctly in all cases. The analysis was modified to include the use of effective junction ideality factor. The calculated results were compared with the available experimental results on indium phosphide solar cells processed by different techniques. It is found that the use of process dependent junction ideality factor leads to better estimation of series resistance. An accurate comprehensive series resistance model is warranted to give proper feedback for modifying the cell processing from the design state.

Jain, Raj K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Air Temperature to Quantitatively Predict the MODIS Fractional Snow Cover Retrieval Errors over the Continental US (CONUS)

In the middle to high latitude and alpine regions, the seasonal snow pack can dominate the surface energy and water budgets due to its high albedo, low thermal conductivity, high emissivity, considerable spatial and temporal variability, and ability to store and then later release a winters cumulative snowfall (Cohen, 1994; Hall, 1998). With this in mind, the snow drought across the U.S. has raised questions about impacts on water supply, ski resorts and agriculture. Knowledge of various snow pack properties is crucial for short-term weather forecasts, climate change prediction, and hydrologic forecasting for producing reliable daily to seasonal forecasts. One potential source of this information is the multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project (Mitchell et al., 2004). Real-time NLDAS products are used for drought monitoring to support the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as initial conditions for a future NCEP drought forecast system. Additionally, efforts are currently underway to assimilate remotely-sensed estimates of land-surface states such as snowpack information into NLDAS. It is believed that this assimilation will not only produce improved snowpack states that better represent snow evolving conditions, but will directly improve the monitoring of drought.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HLPW-4/GMGW-3: Mesh Adaptation for RANS Technology Focus Group Workshop Summary

The AIAA workshop series helps guide the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) community through publicly available test cases and impartial evaluation to establish the state-of-the-art in applied CFD. A summary of the Mesh Adaptation Technical Focus Group submissions for the joint Fourth CFD High Lift Prediction and Third Geometry & Mesh Generation Workshop is provided. The Common Research Model High-Lift variant (CRM-HL) is the target of this investigation. A 2D high-lift airfoil solution verification case was extracted from the 3D CRM-HL. Low variation is shown between 2D solutions with mesh adaptation to control estimated solution interpolation and output errors. As expected, variation for these mesh adaptation techniques is larger for the 3D CRM-HL than the 2D airfoil. More importantly, the 3D mesh adapted results have a lower variation than expert-crafted meshes of equal or larger size. Suspected multiple solutions to Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes with the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model appear to resolve into a common solution with mesh resolution.

HLPW-4↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗
NASA NTRS1979

Fundamental mechanisms that influence the estimate of heat transfer to gas turbine blades

Heat tranfer problems in aircraft gas turbines required for improved prediction of turbine blade or vane gas-side heat transfer are examined. Estimates of the heat transfer from the gas to vanes or rotating blades are uncertain due to the complexity of the heat transfer processes, since the gas flow is three dimensional with complex secondary viscous flow patterns that interact with the endwalls and blade surfaces. In addition, upstream disturbances, stagnation flow, curvature effects, and flow acceleration complicate the thermal transport mechanisms in the boundary layers. The thermal state and flow characteristics of the hot gases that enter the turbine blade row, analytical methods for calculating the gas-side heat transfer to turbine blades, and flow phenomena such as stagnation, curvature effects, acceleration, secondary flows, and transition that influences local heat transfer rates are discussed.

Graham, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Analysis and forecast intercomparisons using the FGGE SOP-1 data base

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) data base has provided the research community with the most complete global coverage of meteorological informaiton since measurements were first taken. It is important to understand the characteristics of the FGGE data base in terms of its accuracy and representativeness compared to the true state of the atmosphere. The uncertainty associated with the initial conditions used in a numerical model plays a significant role in subsequent error growth as shown by predictability theory. The ultimate limit of forecast skill is directly related to the initial uncertainty. The accuracy of analyses using FGGE data base coupled with the errors due to modeling imperfections determines the present skill of numerical models. An estimte of initial uncertainty is determined by examining differences in several FGGE analyses. The estimate is then used to determine an ultimate limit of forecast skill from derived predictability error growth rates. Several different calculations of predictability error growth are also compared. Finally, present-day forecast skill using FGGE analyses is contrasted to the estimates of ultimate skill, and the partition of model error versus initial uncertainty is discussed.

Baumhefner, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of the Atmospheric Distribution, Sources, and Sinks of Oxygenated Volatile Organic Chemicals Based on Measurements over the Pacific during TRACE-P

Airborne measurements of a large number of oxygenated volatile organic chemicals (OVOC) were carried out in the Pacific troposphere (0.1-12 km) in winter/spring of 2001 (24 February to 10 April). Specifically, these measurements included acetone (CH3COCH3), methylethyl ketone (CH3COC2H5, MEK), methanol (CH3OH), ethanol (C2H5OH), acetaldehyde (CH3CHO), propionaldehyde (C2H5CHO), peroxyacylnitrates (PANs) (C(sub n)H(sub 2n+1)COO2NO2), and organic nitrates (C(sub n)H(sub 2n+1)ONO2). Complementary measurements of formaldehyde (HCHO), methyl hydroperoxide (CH3OOH), and selected tracers were also available. OVOC were abundant in the clean troposphere and were greatly enhanced in the outflow regions from Asia. Background mixing ratios were typically highest in the lower troposphere and declined toward the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere. Their total abundance (Summation of OVOC) was nearly twice that of nonmethane hydrocarbons (Summation of C2-C8 NMHC). Throughout the troposphere, the OH reactivity of OVOC is comparable to that of methane and far exceeds that of NMHC. A comparison of these data with western Pacific observations collected some 7 years earlier (February-March 1994) did not reveal significant differences. Mixing ratios of OVOC were strongly correlated with each other as well as with tracers of fossil and biomass/biofuel combustion. Analysis of the relative enhancement of selected OVOC with respect to CH3Cl and CO in 12 plumes originating from fires and sampled in the free troposphere (3-11 km) is used to assess their primary and secondary emissions from biomass combustion. The composition of these plumes also indicates a large shift of reactive nitrogen into the PAN reservoir thereby limiting ozone formation. A three-dimensional global model that uses state of the art chemistry and source information is used to compare measured and simulated mixing ratios of selected OVOC. While there is reasonable agreement in many cases, measured aldehyde concentrations are significantly larger than predicted. At their observed levels, acetaldehyde mixing ratios are shown to be an important source of HCHO (and HO x ) and PAN in the troposphere. On the basis of presently known chemistry, measured mixing ratios of aldehydes and PANs are mutually incompatible. We provide rough estimates of the global sources of several OVOC and conclude that collectively these are extremely large (150-500 Tg C / yr) but remain poorly quantified.

Singh, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Estimating the Collapse Pressure of an Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator

The collapse pressure of an inflatable membrane is the minimum differential pressure which will sustain a specific desired shape under an applied load. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the collapse pressure of a tension-cone inflatable aerodynamic decelerator (IAD) that is subject to a static aerodynamic load. The IAD surface is modeled as an elastic membrane. For a given aerodynamic load and sufficiently high torus differential pressure, the IAD assumes a stable axisymmetric equilibrium shape. When the torus pressure is reduced sufficiently, the symmetric equilibrium state becomes unstable and we define this instance to be the critical pressure Pcr. In this paper, we will compare our predicted critical torus pressure with the corresponding observed torus collapse pressure (OTCP) for fifteen tests that were conducted by the third author and his collaborators at the NASA Glenn Research Center 10x10 Supersonic Wind Tunnel in April 2008. One of the difficulties with these types of comparisons is establishing the instance of torus collapse and determining the OTCP from quantities measured during the experiment. In many cases, torus collapse is gradual and the OTCP is not well-defined. However, in eight of the fifteen wind tunnel tests where the OTCP is well-defined, we find that the average of the relative differences (Pcr - OTCP/Pcr) was 8.9%. For completeness, we will also discuss the seven tests where the observed torus collapse pressure is not well-defined.

Baginski, Frank E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Heat Transfer over a Flat Plate

There have been few discussions on using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) without experimental validation. Pairing experimental data, uncertainty analysis, and analytical predictions provides a comprehensive approach to verification and is the current state of the art. With pressed budgets, collecting experimental data is rare or non-existent. This paper investigates and proposes a method to perform CFD uncertainty analysis only from computational data. The method uses current CFD uncertainty techniques coupled with the Student-T distribution to predict the heat transfer coefficient over a at plate. The inputs to the CFD model are varied from a specified tolerance or bias error and the difference in the results are used to estimate the uncertainty. The variation in each input is ranked from least to greatest to determine the order of importance. The results are compared to heat transfer correlations and conclusions drawn about the feasibility of using CFD without experimental data. The results provide a tactic to analytically estimate the uncertainty in a CFD model when experimental data is unavailable

Computational↗