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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Empirical Density Law for Ternary, Homogeneous PuCl 3 /HCl/H 2 O Solutions

Nuclear material operations pose unique hazards that are not encountered in other chemical, energy, or manufacturing industries. One of these hazards is the potential for a nuclear criticality accident when handling fissile isotopes such as 235 U and 239 Pu. These hazards are particularly high when fissile material is dissolved in solution as the neutron behaviors of the system can change rapidly with the physical and chemical changes accessible in solution. Current estimates of solution density used for criticality safety are outdated and hinder fissile material handling. Developing new estimates for these safety calculations requires experimental characterization and the derivation of empirical density models. We have derived a density law describing PuCl 3 /HCl/H 2 O solutions from experimental data characterizing solution density. Density data was treated using a Pitzer-derived eight-parameter equation, defining density as a function of analyte concentrations, temperature, and interactions between these variables. The model is predictive across the concentration and temperature ranges from which it was derived. The potential effects of varying oxidation states of plutonium, which are easily accessible in aqueous media, on the bulk solution density of the ternary system were also investigated. The resulting Pitzer-derived density law was applied to a nuclear criticality safety model, and the impact of the experimental characterization of solution density relative to previous estimates was demonstrated to be significant and suggest that the current approach to estimating density in nuclear criticality safety calculations may lead to overly conservative controls.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scale translation yields insights into gas adsorption under nanoconfinement

This work describes a scale-translating simulation framework to investigate gas adsorption behavior in nanoconfined pores. The framework combines molecular simulations (MSs), equation of state (EoS), and lattice Boltzmann (LB) simulations. MSs reveal the physics of methane adsorption in nano-sized pores, where input values of fugacity coefficients are optimized based on EoS predictions. Then, an LB free-energy model, which incorporates a viral EoS, upscales intermolecular forces and estimates adsorption behavior via a proposed fluid–wall interaction model. Armed with the values of the LB interaction parameter as a function of pressure, the LB model is used to predict fluid behavior in irregular nanopores, and the results are validated against reference MS data. The LB model is then used to study adsorption behavior at a continuum scale in representative organic shale nanopores based on finely characterized Vaca Muerta shale samples. Furthermore, the results show that methane adsorption could significantly increase contained fluids by 10%–25% in pores smaller than 20 nm. However, in larger pores (40 nm to 90 nm), adsorption's impact diminishes to 2%–3%, suggesting sorption's negligible role beyond a 40 nm pore size.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Accuracy and performance of LACIE yield estimates in major wheat producing regions of the world

The LACIE yield models developed, implemented, and tested during the three phases of the experiment represent the first generation of models designed for the large-scale prediction of wheat production. The models are capable of supporting the stated project goal of being within 10 percent of the actual wheat production 90 percent of the time. The limitations of the models are inherent in their nature. The temporal resolution limits their ability to handle the erratic weather occurring in critical situations. The relatively large spatial resolution of the individual models limits the capture of localized but important episodic events.

Phinney, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Coronas-F Orbit Monitoring and Re-Entry Prediction

Russian scientific satellite CORONAS-F was launched on July, 31, 2001. The object was inserted in near-circular orbit with the inclination 82.5deg and a mean altitude approx. 520 km. Due to the upper atmosphere drag CORONAS-F was permanently descended and as a result on December, 6, 2005 it has finished the earth-orbital flight, having lifetime in space approx. 4.5 years. The satellite structural features and its flight attitude control led to the significant variations of its ballistic coefficient during the flight. It was a cause of some specific difficulties in the fulfillment of the ballistic and navigation support of this space vehicle flight. Besides the main mission objective CORONAS-F also has been selected by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) as a target object for the next regular international re-entry test campaign on a program of surveillance and re-entry prediction for the hazard space objects within their de-orbiting phases. Spacecraft (S/C) CORONAS-F kept its working state right up to the end of the flight - down to the atmosphere entry. This fact enabled to realization of the additional research experiments, concerning with an estimation of the atmospheric density within the low earth orbits (LEO) of the artificial satellites, and made possible to continue track the S/C during final phase of its flight by means of Russian regular command & tracking system, used for it control. Thus there appeared a unique possibility of using for tracking S/C at its de-orbiting phase not only passive radar facilities, belonging to the space surveillance systems and traditionally used for support of the IADC re-entry test campaigns, but also more precise active trajectory radio-tracking facilities from the ground control complex (GCC) applied for this object. Under the corresponding decision of the Russian side such capability of additional high-precise tracking control of the CORONAS-F flight in this period of time has been implemented. The organizing of the CORONAS-F ballistic and navigational support (BNS) and solving its main tasks (such as S/C orbit determination (OD) and its motion prediction and connected with them) both for regular mission stage and for additional flight program were realized by the group of specialists from the Mission Control Center (MCC). MCC was also assigned as a principal organization from the Russian side for participation in the 7th IADC re-entry test campaign on CORONAS-F. The CORONAS-F flight features and space environments circumstances during its flight as well as a methodology and technology of spacecraft ballistic and navigational support are given below. The BNS results for different phases of S/C flight, including the results of its re-entry predictions, obtained during the realization of the 7th IADC test campaign are submitted. The accuracy of space vehicle re-entry prediction and its dependence on various factors are analyzed in more details.

Ivanov, N. M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗
NASA NTRS1999

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multireference diffusion Monte Carlo reaches 2D materials

Abstract Quantum confinement in 2D materials strongly enhances electronic correlation effects. Therefore, predicting the properties of these unique materials, with both a high level of accuracy and computational efficiency, without relying on adjustable parameters or functionals, remains an outstanding theoretical challenge. The majority of theoretical studies are based on the approximations of density functional theory (DFT). The reliability of DFT predictions are heavily dependent on the choice of an approximated exchange-correlation functional. Here, we estimate the magnitude of impact of correlation on the total energy for the quintessential 2D material, graphene, by performing and comparing state-of-the-art selected CI and quantum Monte Carlo extrapolated calculations for a single unit cell at the$$\Gamma$$point. We demonstrate that Self-Healing Diffusion Monte Carlo (SHDMC) obtains a very compact, but high-quality wavefunction for this system that lacks the strong basis set dependence displayed by state of the art quantum chemistry methods. The SHDMC wavefunction is of higher quality compared to that obtained from sCI, in the same orbital basis, while being$$\sim$$ 1000 times smaller in terms of determinant count compared to sCI. We also demonstrate that extrapolating SHDMC results to the infinite determinant limit compares extremely well with complete basis set extrapolated sCI. Our work paves the way for future validation of SHDMC applied to challenging 2D materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of Natural Disasters and Extreme Weather on Household Location Choice and Economic Welfare

Natural disasters have increased in the United States in recent decades. At the same time, there has been a shift in population away from the states in the Northeast and Midwest to areas in the Sun Belt, many of which face increased risks from natural disasters. Spatial equilibrium theory predicts that households trade off risk for income in making location decisions. This study estimates a spatial equilibrium model of household location choice to understand these trade-offs. The results show that households require as much as 0.40% of annual household income to endure an additional disaster over the course of a decade. They also show that these values differ substantially depending on household skill level with higher-skill, higher-income households willing to pay three times more in annual income to avoid an additional natural disaster. Furthermore, these results have important implications for policymakers thinking about climate change adaptation and environmental justice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of doses in contaminated urban areas: modelling exercise based on Fukushima data

State-of-the-art dose assessment models were applied to estimate doses to the population in urban areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Assessment results were compared among five models, and comparisons of model predictions with actual measurements were also made. Assessments were performed using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Predicted dose distributions for indoor and outdoor workers from a probabilistic approach were in good agreement with the actual measurements. In addition, when the models were applied to assess the doses to the representative person, based on a concept recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and in the International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Standards, it was evident that doses to the representative person obtained with a deterministic approach were always higher than those obtained with a probabilistic approach using the same model.

dose assessment↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observation of $\tau$ lepton pair production in ultraperipheral lead-lead collisions at $\sqrt{s_\mathrm{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

We present an observation of photon-photon production of $\tau$ lepton pairs in ultraperipheral lead-lead collisions. The measurement is based on a data sample with an integrated luminosity of 404 $\mu$b$^{-1}$ collected by the CMS experiment at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV. The $\gamma\gamma$$\to$$\tau^+\tau^-$ process is observed for $\tau\tau$ events with a muon and three charged hadrons in the final state. The measured fiducial cross section is $\sigma(\gamma\gamma$$\to$$\tau^+\tau^-)$ = 4.8 $\pm$ 0.6 (stat) $\pm$ 0.5 (syst) $\mu$b, in agreement with leading-order QED predictions. Using $\sigma(\gamma\gamma$$\to$$\tau^+\tau^-)$, we estimate a model-dependent value of the anomalous magnetic moment of the $\tau$ lepton of $a_\tau$ = 0.001 $^{+0.055}_{-0.089}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainties in ab initio nuclear structure calculations with chiral interactions

We present theoretical ground state energies and their uncertainties for p -shell nuclei obtained from chiral effective field theory internucleon interactions as a function of chiral order, fitted to two- and three-body data only. We apply a Similary Renormalization Group transformation to improve the numerical convergence of the many-body calculations, and discuss both the numerical uncertainties arising from basis truncations and those from omitted induced many-body forces, as well as chiral truncation uncertainties. With complete Next-to-Next-to-Leading (N 2 LO) order two- and three-body interactions, we find significant overbinding for the ground states in the upper p -shell, but using higher-order two-body potentials, in combination with N 2 LO three-body forces, our predictions agree with experiment throughout the p -shell to within our combined estimated uncertainties. The uncertainties due to chiral order truncation are noticeably larger than the numerical uncertainties, but they are expected to become comparable to the numerical uncertainties at complete N 3 LO.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Utility of ERTS for monitoring the breeding habit of migratory waterfowl

Waterfowl breeding-ground surveys conducted each year by the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife extend over a vast region of the United States and Canada. Data from these surveys are used to estimate waterfowl production by means of a mathematical model. Counts of May and July ponds are some the variables used in this model. Annual production estimates are used to predict fall flights of ducks. This information is then used for establishing waterfowl hunting regulations. Work to date indicates that satellite remote sensing techniques hold considerable promise for the accurate and rapid assessment of waterfowl breeding habitat, especially changes in pond numbers and distribution. Development of an operational system utilizing satellite sensors as a primary source of data appears to be a realistic goal for the future.

Work, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Applications Activity

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is one of the first-tier satellite missions recommended by the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space. The SMAP mission 1 is under development by NASA and is scheduled for launch late in 2014. The SMAP measurements will allow global and high-resolution mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state at resolutions from 3-40 km. These measurements will have high value for a wide range of environmental applications that underpin many weather-related decisions including drought and flood guidance, agricultural productivity estimation, weather forecasting, climate predictions, and human health risk. In 2007, NASA was tasked by The National Academies to ensure that emerging scientific knowledge is actively applied to obtain societal benefits by broadening community participation and improving means for use of information. SMAP is one of the first missions to come out of this new charge, and its Applications Plan forms the basis for ensuring its commitment to its users. The purpose of this paper is to outline the methods and approaches of the SMAP applications activity, which is designed to increase and sustain the interaction between users and scientists involved in mission development.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Real-Time Prognostics of a Rotary Valve Actuator

Valves are used in many domains and often have system-critical functions. As such, it is important to monitor the health of valves and their actuators and predict remaining useful life. In this work, we develop a model-based prognostics approach for a rotary valve actuator. Due to limited observability of the component with multiple failure modes, a lumped damage approach is proposed for estimation and prediction of damage progression. In order to support the goal of real-time prognostics, an approach to prediction is developed that does not require online simulation to compute remaining life, rather, a function mapping the damage state to remaining useful life is found offline so that predictions can be made quickly online with a single function evaluation. Simulation results demonstrate the overall methodology, validating the lumped damage approach and demonstrating real-time prognostics.

actuator↗
NASA NTRS2017

PHM Enabled Autonomous Propellant Loading Operations

The utility of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) software capability applied to Autonomous Operations (AO) remains an active research area within aerospace applications. The ability to gain insight into which assets and subsystems are functioning properly, along with the derivation of confident predictions concerning future ability, reliability, and availability, are important enablers for making sound mission planning decisions. When coupled with software that fully supports mission planning and execution, an integrated solution can be developed that leverages state assessment and estimation for the purposes of delivering autonomous operations. The authors have been applying this integrated, model-based approach to the autonomous loading of cryogenic spacecraft propellants at Kennedy Space Center.

Walker, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting OSIRIS-REx Touch-And-Go (TAG) Performance Given the Realities of Asteroid Bennu

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is a NASA New Frontiers mission that launched in 2016 and rendezvoused with the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in late 2018. Upon arrival, the surface of Bennu was found to be much rockier than expected. The original Touch-and-Go (TAG) requirement for sample collection was to deliver the spacecraft to a site with a 25-meter radius; however, the largest hazard-free sites are no larger than 8 meters in radius. To accommodate the dearth of safe sample collection sites, the project reevaluated all aspects of flight system performance pertaining to TAG in order to account for the demonstrated performance of the spacecraft and navigation prediction accuracies. More-over, the project has base lined on board natural feature tracking instead of lidar for providing the on board navigation state update during the TAG sequence. This paper summarizes the improvements in error source estimation, enhancements in on board trajectory correction, and results of recent Monte Carlo simulation to en-able sample collection with the given constraints. TAG delivery and on board navigation performance are presented for the final four candidate TAG sites.

Berry, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme Risk Mitigation in Reinforcement Learning using Extreme Value Theory

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modelling highly rare risk events (rewards) that could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes. These infrequent occurrences present a formidable challenge for data-driven methods aiming to capture such risky events accurately. While risk-aware RL techniques do exist, they suffer from high variance estimation due to the inherent data scarcity. Our work proposes to enhance the resilience of RL agents when faced with very rare and risky events by focusing on refining the predictions of the extreme values predicted by the state-action value distribution. To achieve this, we formulate the extreme values of the state-action value function distribution as parameterized distributions, drawing inspiration from the principles of extreme value theory (EVT). We propose an extreme value theory based actor-critic approach, namely, Extreme Valued Actor-Critic (EVAC) which effectively addresses the issue of infrequent occurrence by leveraging EVT-based parameterization. Importantly, we theoretically demonstrate the advantages of employing these parameterized distributions in contrast to other risk-averse algorithms. Our evaluations show that the proposed method outperforms other risk averse RL algorithms on a diverse range of benchmark tasks, each encompassing distinct risk scenarios.

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2020

A substantial role of soil erosion in the land carbon sink and its future changes

Realistic representation of land carbon sink in climate models is vital for predicting carbon climate feedbacks in a changing world. Although soil erosion that removes land organic carbon has increased substantially since the onset of agriculture, it is rarely included in the current generation of climate models. Using an Earth system model with soil erosion represented, we estimated that on average soil erosion displaces 5% of newly fixed land organic carbon downslope annually in the continental US. In the lower Mississippi river basin and the Cascades, the fraction can be as large as 40%. About 12% of the eroded organic carbon is eventually exported to inland waters, which is equal to 14% of the simulated net carbon gain by terrestrial ecosystems. By comparing the eroded organic carbon export to rivers with the particulate organic carbon export to oceans, we demonstrated that a large fraction of the carbon export to rivers could have been mineralized in inland waters. Importantly, with a direct comparison of eroded and exported soil organic carbon and land net carbon uptake, we found that Earth system models that ignore soil erosion likely offset the erosional carbon loss by increasing heterotrophic respiration implicitly. But as soil erosion and heterotrophic respiration respond differently to a warming climate, this unrealistic compensation would lead to biased predictions of future land carbon sink.

Tan, Zeli↗